251 Comments

Wildcard Saturday Open Thread

| January 7th, 2017

The Picks For Today

Oakland +4 over HOUSTON

You’ve heard the stat all week. Connor Cook is the first quarterback to make his first start in the postseason. And he’s doing so against one of the league’s best defenses. The gambler in me is screaming, “TAKE THE TEXANS!”

But I’m not doing it. Because I don’t think Brock Osweiler is any good and this seems like the perfect stage for him to formally end his Houston career. Not saying the Raiders win the game. Saying they keep it close.

Texans 16, Raiders 13

SEATTLE -7.5 over Detroit

Lions stink. And Devin Hester!

Seahawks 27, Lions 14

Tagged: , , ,

11 Comments

Money Mouth: Divisional Round Picks

| January 15th, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-01-14 at 12.22.01 PM

I have no idea what’s going to happen this weekend. Not a single result would surprise me. So I’m going back to picking SOMETHING for these games. I finished the season six over .500. Still have a chance to get to ten over. But I need a strong performance. (For some reason I didn’t include spreads last week but I would have gone 2-2 any way you slice it.)

PATRIOTS OVER 23.5 PTS VS. CHIEFS

Here’s what Bill Belichick knows: his offensive line can’t protect Tom Brady from the Chiefs pass rush. And since no coach in history has been better at self-evaluation, he won’t ask them to try. Instead Brady will go to the quick-release pass attack with Edelman Edelman Edelman and neutralize Houston, Hali and company. I think it works. Not sure if Pats are healthy enough to win but they are healthy enough to score.

PACKERS +7 AT CARDINALS

I am going to be rooting very hard in this game so I’m making an emotional hedge. Would love to lose this one.

PANTHERS OVER 23.5 PTS VS. SEAHAWKS

Here are the Carolina scores over the last 8 games: 27, 44, 33, 41, 38, 38, 13, 38. I say they play with a chip on their shoulder as the media at-large keeps trying to convince fans the team is overrated. (2015 Panthers remind me an awful lot of the 2006 Bears. Nobody thought that team could make the Super Bowl until their plane landed in Miami.) Bold prediction: Panthers beat them up.

I will not be making a selection in the Broncos/Steelers game as there’s no point. Unless someone can prove to me Roethlisberger will be healthy it’s a sucker’s wager. But without Antonio Brown I’d need a big number to take Pittsburgh.

Tagged: , , , , ,

446 Comments

Playoff Picks: Wildcard Round

| January 8th, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-01-06 at 10.56.22 AM

Administrative Note: We’ll resume our postseason positional analysis columns on Monday with running backs, Tuesday with wide receivers, Wednesday with tight ends & Thursday we’ll wrap up the offensive side of the ball with our analysis of the line. (Defense will come after the division round.)

KANSAS CITY AT HOUSTON

Am I willing to embrace the notion of Brian Hoyer winning a postseason game? No, I’m not. Am I willing to cast my support unabashedly for Andy Reid in a postseason game? No, I’m not. But since I picked the Chiefs to make the Super Bowl in August I might as well continue seeing red. And on a football note, the Chiefs don’t look to throw the ball downfield so their short passing attack should be able to neutralize the Houston’s greatest asset: Watt, Whitney and the pass rush. Chiefs 20, Texans 13

PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI

Here’s what I keep hearing from folks analyzing the wildcard round: nobody wants to play the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here’s my follow-up question: why? The Steelers controlled their road to the postseason and lost to Marc Trestman and Ryan Mallett! (And the game wasn’t particularly close.) Then in Week 17 the Steelers were horrible against Cleveland, with Big Ben throwing ugly picks to second-rate linebackers. If Austin Davis weren’t starting for the Browns and they didn’t decide to fumble away the second half, the Jets would be in the playoffs. So is Pittsburgh just going to turn it on? Bengals 24, Steelers 22

Read More …

Tagged: , , , , , , ,

187 Comments

Money Where My Mouth Is: Three Picks for Week 12

| November 27th, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-09-21 at 3.01.04 PM

Hit a three-team, money line, Thanksgiving parlay for substantial cash yesterday so feeling good today. This week I’m rolling the dice and picking with my hopes and dreams and not with my mind or wallet concerns. What do the Bears need this weekend? These…

MINNESOTA +1.5 AT ATLANTA

Bears would trail the second wild card by a single game with a Vikings win. So I’m predicting a Vikings win.

PITTSBURGH +3.5 AT SEATTLE

Bears need to catch and pass the Seahawks in the standings due to James Clausen’s embarrassing performance. A loss to the Steelers would put both teams at 5-6. It happens.

INDIANAPOLIS -3 VS. TAMPA BAY

You want a football reason? I don’t have one. Go Colts!

Season Record: 17-14-2

Tagged: , , , , ,

162 Comments

Money Where My Mouth Is: Three Picks For Week Eleven

| November 19th, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-09-21 at 3.01.04 PM

I’m back…BOOM…back in the New York groove!

I’m back…BOOM…back in the New York groove!

Took three dogs and all three dogs won outright. That’s what you call a good week of gambling, much needed after the disaster known as Week Ten. This season it’s becoming increasingly difficult to figure out who plays football well and who doesn’t. But one thing is certain: the Giants are winning the Super Bowl.

OAKLAND -1.5 AT DETROIT

Crossroads game for the Raiders. They are in the thick of a playoff race in the AFC but coming off two tough losses to two good teams in Pittsburgh and Minnesota. The Lions are putrid. On a Sunday where the Packers couldn’t do anything right the Lions still gave them every chance imaginable to walk away with a victory. Could be nuts but I think Raiders win big.

DALLAS PICK EM AT MIAMI

Romo returneth. If the Cowboys don’t win Sunday, their season is over. Simple as that. The fact that their season is not over at 2-7 is borderline insane but that’s life in the NFC East.

SAN FRANCISCO +12.5 AT SEATTLE

Okay, so I continue to watch the Seahawks play football every week. And every week I continue to be like, “eh, there ain’t much there”. So why are they laying 12.5 points against anyone, anywhere? The 12th man? They don’t have too much impact when the first eleven are mediocre. I’ll take the points.

Season Record: 16-12-2

Tagged: , , , , ,

182 Comments

Money Where My Mouth Is: Three Picks for Week Six

| October 15th, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-09-21 at 3.01.04 PM

2-1 last week, only losing because the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants had to do it their way Sunday and make the end of the game exciting. 5-1 over my last six and I’m a believer in gambling momentum.

Chicago Bears +3 at Detroit Lions

Hot hand. Two straight covers. And I think the Bears are simply better than the Lions right now. (More on this tomorrow.)

Atlanta Falcons & New Orleans Saints Over 51 Pts

First off, I love rooting for overs. It means lots of scoring. Secondly, I’m not sure either of these teams is any good on the defensive side of the ball. I see a 34-24 type game, smoothly sailing past the number.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

I don’t think the Seahawks are any good. They have two wins on the year. One against James Clausen and they needed all four quarters to win that. One against a Detroit team that was half a yard from beating them in Seattle. It sometimes takes folks time to move beyond reputation and analyze what’s happening on the field. On the field, Seattle stinks. Their offensive line is putrid. Their secondary collapses in the fourth quarter. Their quarterback is limited in the pocket. (If you don’t follow Pete Prisco’s work on this, you should.)

Ron Rivera is salivating when he watches tape of this OL group. Add Luke Kuechly to the mix and I’m comfortable taking the points.

Season Record: 8-6-1 

Tagged: , , , , ,

214 Comments

Money Where My Mouth Is: Three Picks for Week Four

| October 1st, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-09-21 at 3.01.04 PM

Another 1-2 week has left me reeling through three weeks of the season. Gave the Ravens too much credit (and didn’t deduct enough points for Marc Trestman’s involvement in their organization). Didn’t give the Bears defensive coaching staff enough credit. Nothing is over. Nothing. I shall rebound.

DOLPHINS UNDER 20 POINTS V. JETS IN LONDON

If you get an opportunity to watch the replay of Bills v. Dolphins from Sunday, spend the hour and do so. It felt like, from the opening whistle, we were watching the last game of the Joe Philbin era in Miami. The offense was useless. The defense made Tyrod Taylor look like Roger Staubach. The coaching staff didn’t make a single discernible adjustment over the course of 60 minutes. And they’ve completely lost the plot with their use of Suh.

Are the Jets great? No. But their defense is capable of wrecking this game for the Dolphins and I can’t see Tannehill getting this group to three touchdowns.

BEARS +3 OVER RAIDERS

Full report on this selection will be available in tomorrow’s game preview.

LIONS +10 AT SEAHAWKS

Let’s look at the Seahawks first three games. They were humiliated defensively in week one by Nick Foles and a Rams offense that have gone AWOL since. They were somewhat lifeless at Lambeau Field, losing by double digits in a game that never felt that close. Sunday, at home against Jimmy Clausen, they were entirely unimpressive. So how are they double-digit favorites against ANYBODY? Not only do I think this game is close, I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit has a chance to win late.

Record: 3-5-1 (-$260)

Tagged: , , , , ,

© Da' Bears Blog