200 Comments

Data Entry: How the Bears Should Handle Mitch Trubisky

| July 28th, 2017

Ryan Pace and John Fox have quite literally gambled their careers on Mitchell Trubisky, so now the question becomes how they should handle his rookie season to give him the best chance of success going forward.

With that in mind, I looked at how teams handled the rookie seasons of the quarterbacks drafted in round 1 in the last 20 years. There were 55 QBs in the sample, but I removed the 6 drafted in 2016 and 2017 because it is too early to draw any conclusions about their career outcomes. This left me with 49 round 1 QBs between 1998 and 2015.

I loosely grouped each quarterback into either a hit (developed into at least a solid starter for several years) or a miss (failed to establish themselves as a solid starter) and then looked at two different factors: how much they played in their rookie year and how well they played relative to their peers around the NFL as a rookie (full data can be seen here). Let’s look at each factor and see if any trends can be observed.

Rookie playing time

The amount of playing time 1st round QBs saw as a rookie varied wildly. Some players didn’t see a single snap their rookie seasons, while others took every snap, with many players scattered at various points in between. Overall, I couldn’t determine much of a trend to indicate players who played more would turn out differently than players who sat and learned.

  • 8 of the 9 players who started every game their rookie season turned into solid starters – with poor David Carr being the lone exception.
  • But 8 of the 9 who started 13-15 games did not. I don’t think those extra few games make that much of a difference, and trends are scattered below that, with too much noise to make any conclusions.

Overall, 12 of 28 QBs (43%) who started for more than half of the season panned out, while 10 of 21 (48%) who started half the season or less did. That’s not really a meaningful difference.

In more recent times, having a rookie QB sit has been less common.

  • Only 9 of the 27 first round QBs in the last 10 years of the sample (2005-14) spent less than half the season as a starter.
  • 8 of 18 (44%) who started more than half the season in this time span hit, while 3 of 9 (33%) who started less than half the season did.

Despite the larger numerical difference, the small sample size here makes those groups basically indistinguishable; just 1 more QB in the group of 9 panning out would make those numbers completely identical.

Rookie performance

So it appears that how much a rookie 1st round QB plays doesn’t seem to matter much to how his career ultimately pans out. That means the Bears are free to sit Trubisky as long as they would like this year without worrying about stunting his development. But they shouldn’t worry about damaging his career by throwing him into the fire either.

If Trubisky does get some meaningful playing time, how predictive will his performance be towards the rest of his career?

To examine this question, I looked at passer ratings of QBs in the sample who spent at least 1/4 of their rookie season starting. The goal here was to have a large enough sample such that their performance could get a somewhat fair evaluation. Passer rating is far from perfect, but I chose that as a general metric to evaluate QB play in a simple manner. Because the average passer rating has changed significantly over the time of this sample, I looked at their performance relative to an “average” passer in their rookie year (the 15th best passer rating among qualified passers, since the NFL has had 30-32 teams in this time span).

It appears that rookie performance does have some predictive value for how their career will pan out.

  • 10 out of 14 QBs who posted a passer rating within 10 points of the league average QB turned into solid starters.
  • Only 6 of 21 who were worse than that 10 point differential did so.
  • The match got stronger as the sample size got larger; if you look at QBs who spent more than half of their rookie seasons as the starter, those numbers change to 9/13 and 3/15.

But again the NFL has changed a lot in the last 20 years, so I looked to see if the patterns hold when I narrow the sample size to only 2005-14, the most recent 10 years of this sample. It turns out the pattern did hold for players who started more than half of their rookie seasons.

  • 5 of 7 rookies who were within 10 points of the league average QB turned into solid starters.
  • 3 of 11 who were farther than 10 points from the average did.

TL;DR

If you’re one of those people who don’t like wading through all the details and just want the conclusion, then this is the spot for you!

Long story short, history says Bears fans shouldn’t fret whether Mitchell Trubisky plays all year, sits all year, or does anything in between as a rookie. That hasn’t had any impact on the career outcomes of 1st round QBs in recent history.

Assuming Trubisky does play at least half the season, however, we can get a decent idea of whether or not he’ll pan out by looking at his rookie passer rating. If he stays within 10 points of the league average, there’s a good chance he’ll at least be a solid starter. For the past few years, the league average passer has posted a passer rating in the low 90s, so that means Bears fans should be hopeful if Trubisky to be somewhere in the 80s this year.

Tagged: , ,

  • SC Dave

    First thing to do is go back to the other thread to announce this one. I guess.

  • BearDown100393

    John Fox even know Pace was drafting Mitch?

    • Elect A Clown. Expect A Circus

      Stop propagating a made up story. Of course John Fox knew Pace was going to draft Trub.

      The only thing he did not know was Pace was going to move from #3 to #2. And that was Pace’s prerogative. A coach does not get involved in every single draft day wheeling and dealing.

      • BearDown100393

        Well…. some do.

        • Elect A Clown. Expect A Circus

          May be but it is definitely not necessary. It might not be feasible too given how hectic things get in the hours leading up to draft. As Pace got calls from teams interested in Bears #3, he figured they might try for #2 if he tells them Bears pick is not available. And so the decision to move up to #2 could not be made with a big meeting and consulting with everyone involved.

          • BearDown100393

            Maybe.

    • CanadaBear

      From what I’ve read Foxy was kept out of the loop for awhile because he’s such a Chatty Cathy. Who knows if it’s true? Gotta say it seemed like Fox was taking some veiled shots at Pace in the presser when he was talking about this is the first year he was happy with the depth on the team. Either way, if Foxy doesn’t win close to 8 games he’s dead man walking.

      • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

        pretty sure he is already a dead man walking isn’t his heart held together by bailing twine, duct tape and bubble gum.

        • Scharfinator

          LOL good stuff.

  • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

    All those QBs in the dataset didn’t have one thing Trubisky will greatly benefit from.
    DANIEL BRAVERMAN!!!

    • beninnorcal

      Future HOF’r..

  • Good stuff Data but I whole-hardheartedly object to your main thesis.

    “But they shouldn’t worry about damaging his career by throwing him into the fire either.” – Data

    This would be a FATAL mistake.

    #1. I think it would’ve been far more accurate to distinguish QBs who came from a more NFL type O (like Luck) vs a heavy Spread/Read option (Locker, etc).

    I know, I know, much more work, esp since not all systems are pure “Air Raid” vs pure WCO but it would also have zeroed in. And I would guess a correlation may have emerged (those that graduated from a spread sitting more vs those that played under center starting sooner).

    Also, this is where stats DON’T tell the whole story.

    I go back to what Kurt Warner said about starting any rook QB.

    He said the GM must be part psychologist and figure out what kind of a QB he has.

    Some are like Favre and really don’t give a fuck (didn’t even know what a nickle D was till 2nd ur starting). You can hit that hillbilly with a frying pan, and he’d smile and thank you. Not all QBs are like that.

    Warner himself said he wasn’t ready to be a QB in the NFL and that it took him a while to learn the ropes.

    It’s like raising a kid, or teaching a student. Some you can throw on the deep end. Others you have to first put the floaties on.

    Watson, Mahomes and even Kizer seem much more Favre-ian in that respect
    ( Watson is confident and clutch, Mahomes is one cocky SOB and Kizer said he was Brady in Cam body. Doubt you’ll hear that fromTrub)

    Now, I’m no psychologist, I only play one on TV, but Trub seems like the latter. He seems a bit quieter a la Flacco.

    Add to that him learning footwork under center, calling plays in the huddle, learning progressions and reading defenses (something he struggled with even in college), etc, and it’s a no-brainer IMO that he should sit, that starting him right away WOULD INDEED STUNT him short and long term (David Carr syndrome).

    #2 Look at our schedule starting. That’s murderer’s row.

    This is why sitting him initially would also make sense. Regardless of general stats without team by team, QB by QB context. For us, specifically, it would make sense to sit Trub.

    Now, if Glennon looks like utter dogshit, meaning worse than McCown and Barkley, then yeah, you think about starting Trub, but let’s cross that road when we get to it.

    • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

      at least Data put a TL;DR section.

    • Bender McLugh

      agree with the last sentence

    • Fair point, that will definitely vary from person to person. My point was that, overall, there’s no evidence to suggest that playing 1st round QBs from the get-go is either helpful or harmful to their careers overall.

      That’s where the stats ends. Then there’s a whole lot of work figuring out your specific situation after that.

      • What did Rumsfeld say, there’s unknown knowns or some shit like that?

        That’s the thing with QB.

        No one knows how Vadgers would’ve turned out if he had started right away.

        Maybe he turns out the same. Maybe he becomes Alex Smith level. Maybe he crashes and burns like Locker.

        On the flip side, no one knows how David Carr would’ve turned out if he had sat while he learned and the team around him was built up.

        All we do know is that in our specific situation.

        – Trub only started 13 games.
        – Those 13 games were in a heavy spread O
        – The opening schedule is brutal
        – Glennon theoretically isn’t Clausen
        – We’re not competing for the playoffs (barring some crazy overachieving).

        I’m trying to remember what QB who came from a spread/read option started right away and succeeded.

        Tannehill?

        Maybe Mariotta, but still to early to call, and the Duck’s O does incorporate NFL type concepts (much more than say Texas Tech with Mahomes).

        It just seems like sitting him initially makes the most sense all around.

        • willbest

          Its known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns.

          Mitch Trubisky’s raw talent is a known known
          Trub’s ability to elevate to the next level is a known unknown (Pace also planned for it in Glennon)

          Unknown unknowns are things that you haven’t even conceived of and they can get you into the most trouble. This would be Kevin White. If Pace had conceived of him having brittle bones he would have extended Jeffery and/or kept Marshall and/or not drafted him in the first place. Pace knew he was raw and brought Royal in as a short term #2 option but made left himself completely exposed at the position. If it wasn’t for the dumb luck of finding a starting caliber WR in Meredith we would be hosed right now.

          • Fuller’s heart would also fall under the unknown unknowns.

          • SC Dave

            To say nothing of stumbling into Howard. Without him, I may have been on the Fournette bandwagon with Irish.

  • AlbertInTucson

    WHY YOUR TEAM SUCKS: 49ers.

    “Your coach: Kyle “Evil Dan Savage” Shanahan. This February, the Falcons played the worst half in American sports history and the 49ers just hired the guy responsible for it.”

    • CanadaBear

      Had to laugh when Foxy pointed out it’s not the same procedure as Fuller. Damn right it’s not. McPhee will be willing to play ASAP. Fuller is still testing the waters and might have to go on IR due to an ingrown toenail.

      • “It’s not the same procedure” Fox elaborated, “It’s not on his vagina like with Fuller.”

        • CanadaBear

          I like your injury analysis better than mine!

        • King of DBB

          swish! for three!

      • King of DBB

        ohhhh snap

        • CanadaBear

          I’m so pissed at Fuller it’s not funny. It’s one thing to suck and quite another to avoid playing. The weird part is two of his brothers play (or played) in the NFL. You’d think they would all have that same pride/heart of a lion thing going on. Apparently it skipped him.

          • Corporal Clott

            Murph and I were shouting for Mosely, the rest of you were meh. You dererve to be slow roasted over an open fire Canada. With all your seniority, you never saw this coming? Where was your football instinct regarding this bum? Shame on you Sir!

            How’s that for misguided hyperbole? Hee hee

          • DaMurph

            Your memory serves you well!

          • Corporal Clott

            So did the pretty little blonde I met back in ’91. Hee hee

          • SC Dave

            Been that long, has it?

          • Corporal Clott

            How long have you been married Dave?

          • CanadaBear

            You know I don’t follow college ball and have no vested interest in any pick until they are Bears.

          • Corporal Clott

            Yes, I know this. We passed on the best MLB of the draft that year in lue of sugar britches.

          • CanadaBear

            Love the name!

          • No doubt Mosely is good, but how hard is it to plug an ILB?
            Not very.

            We got Freeman who is most likely better than Mosley off the scrap heap.

            Tre (b4 inj) was just as good too, IMO

            That’s why ILBs fall in the draft

            Even Reuben Foster who everyone thought Kueckly-esque fell to #31.

            In the modern NFL great ILBs are a luxury not a necessity.

            But bad CBs have cost the Bears big time esp under Fox.

          • Corporal Clott

            Jess but you’re forgetting the ripple effect. Instead, what did we get? Typhoon Emery made land fall.

          • EnderWiggin

            I hate to say it – but it seems like the problem Fuller has is… FEAR. How can one make it to the highest level with that inside himself?

          • CanadaBear

            That’s kinda my take on it too but I hate to go there. No way he will ever be effective if that’s the case.

          • And when he debuted against 9ers, he came out like gangbusters.

            Strange.

      • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

        it is not an ingrown toenail. it’s a hangnail

  • I think someone brought up a Kendricks possible trade (but they’d NEVER go for the Romanian Ice-Skater).

    How about a 5th or conditional 4rth?

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/07/28/mychal-kendricks-asked-for-a-trade-early-this-year/#comments

    Some of the Philly comments raise an eye-brow, mostly that he’s fast, but not instinctive or discipline, but maybe Fangio can instill him with some of that. Being on a team he wants to play for could help.

    No one is expecting a full season of McPhee, and we all know the deal with Floyd.

    Could you imagine Houston, Young, Acho combo?

    Maybe McPhee can play a lil ILB too in case Kwiat goes full Shea.

    I’d prefer Kendricks over say Christian Jones, that’s for sure.

    • Corporal Clott

      Lol, yeah. I remember barb calling it a “big boy” move when Emery drafted Fuller. Smh.

    • SC Dave

      I’m hoping Kwiat becomes somebody. But hoping aint predicting.

      But all the talk is about the jump between years 1 and 2, so I guess we find out.

      • Did Kwieat make any “wow” plays? Can’t recall. He doesn’t seem “quick twitch”.

        But ur right. Maybe in yr 2 his knowledge will make him faster, and perhaps an NFL diet will build that explosion.

  • BearDown100393

    If only the Bears hired a quarterback whisperer……

  • AlbertInTucson

    Thank you, Professor.

  • AlbertInTucson
    • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

      • AlbertInTucson

        The guy who does THE FAMILY GUY developed it at Hanna-Barbera. They were’nt interested in producing it. When he left, they let him take The Family Guy concept with him and the rest is history.

    • Scharfinator

      Damn, time to stick a fork in him?

    • BearDown100393

      Teammates lined up on each side of the bed to scream at him so he would try harder.

  • willbest

    Apparently, when you are called paranoid schizophrenic by The Mouth of the President, it means you have 24 hours to save your job.

    • Corporal Clott

      How’s that? Sorry, my bad. I forgot you tune in to “as the world turns” every day. Hee hee

      • willbest

        Priebus was sacked. Supposed Kelly is to replace him.

        • Corporal Clott

          Take it away Don Pardo….

        • Corporal Clott

          I’m just razzin you will. : , )

    • So that means that Priebus was not paranoid since someone was after him.

      After 7 yrs of “appeal obamacare!” and owning the Senate, House and WH, Rep too limp to even do that.

      That should be the real story., not the reality tv firings of Trumpf lackeys.

      • willbest

        They call that perceptive. And don’t worry, the rightwing media is up in arms about the GOP’s limp dick. McCains going to die, but those 2 gals are going to get primaried.

        Not that I think a repeal is anything close to useful. Obamacare’s key benefit always has been that it would be impossible to unwind.

        I have a lawyer friend. Well she is more of my wife’s friend, they met through me. She does ERISA and ACA law exclusively and has been for 15 years. She says repeal would be a nightmare. It would be chaos, but she wouldn’t have to worry about billables for a half decade.

        • Elect A Clown. Expect A Circus

          “but those 2 gals are going to get primaried”

          Those 2 gals don’t have anymore fucks to give. Susan Collins is either running for Governor of Maine in 2018 or will quit Senate in 2018 and her vote to preserve Obamacare positions her well to get Dem and independent and non-teabagger republican vote should she run for Governor. She realized that being a Senator during time of Orange Chimpanzee’s shitshow is a brutal punishment. She would rather be the chief executive of her state or retire.

          As for Lisa Murkowski, she WAS primaried in 2010 by a teabagger asshole (I know I am being redundant) named Joe Miller. Easily misled teabagger fools of Alaska helped Joe Miller win the primary. Murkowski then ran as an independent ‘Write In’ candidate in general. Democrats, Independents and non-teabagger republicans voted her in over teabagger Joe Miller.

          She won as a write in candidate. With a last name like Murkowski. In a state full of half wit hicks like Alaska. She owns republican leadership nothing. As long as she looks after her constituents, she is good. She ain’t scared of Orange Chimapnzee and his band of teabagger treasonweasels.

          As for McCain, he is about to die in 10-12 months. So he really does not have anymore fucks to give. He has not forgotten Orange Chimpanzee’s insult ‘ I don’t like war hero were captured’. Revenge is a dish best served cold. And old coot McCain squeezed Orange Chimapanzee’s shrunken nuts hard last night.

  • AlbertInTucson

    Today’s WHY YOUR TEAM SUCKS includes a preview of the Bears column…

    “Anyway, please do not be fooled by Lynch’s ability to con the Bears out of extra draft picks this past April. They’re the Bears.”

    • willbest

      why do you hate links

      • AlbertInTucson

        That is not true and how hard is Deadspin.com?

        • willbest

          This is probably the only time of year I go to deadspin.

          • AlbertInTucson

            Yes. Lurker and good friend Jerimiah Was A Bullfrog alerted me to the return of WYTS.

    • willbest

      “This February, the Falcons played the worst half in American sports history and the 49ers just hired the guy responsible for it.”

      http://deadspin.com/why-your-team-sucks-2017-san-francisco-49ers-1797328541

    • willbest

      I feel like Waffle wrote the paragraphs on the 9ers QB situation

    • SC Dave

      “I have no doubt that Lynch intends on making this a PHYSICAL team that
      does physical things like hitting, and blocking, and more hitting. Why,
      with a little work, they might end up being as aggressive and violent as
      their own fans.”

      Good shit there.

  • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

    time for some BOOBS!!!!
    http://bestboobgif.tumblr.com/

  • Scharfinator

    I love these articles.

  • EnderWiggin

    This was a good read Wood.

    IF ya’ll missed Dirty Sanchez’ presser yesterday, give it a listen. He is exactly the guy we need in our QB room while in transition.

    • Dirty Sanchez link…dunno if I should be relieved or disappointed….

    • Corporal Clott

      No! Sanchez is getting a sex change?

  • King of DBB

    I watched a bullshit commercial about the NFL and its 100 million dollar commitment to brain research on the NFL network that made me have to change the channel due the brazen lying it engaged in.

    Then this:

    http://deadspin.com/report-nfl-to-walk-away-from-deal-to-fund-concussion-r-1797341084

    So yeah. No Bourbonnais for me this year, all my Bears swag went to the trash, I started watching baseball and I watch this year only when the dvr has it for me and I can skip the commercials.

    The only narrative I am interested in is if John Fox can go full Walter Mattheu and Bad News Bears these fucks into 10 wins so he can retire and show Pacebot 2000 what it means to have human dignity.

    Otherwise… fuck this sport

    • Johnnywad

      Probably better throw in boxing, MMA, hockey and soccer then.

      They’re all willing participants.

    • This doesn’t surprise me one bit.
      The NFL’s reluctance on concussions and CTEs have ruined MANY lives.

      Their obstruction is criminal and why regulations must exist to keep billion dollar corporations somehwat honest.

      Big Tabacco of our generation. In 20 yrs, we’re going to get find out PS4s and Iphones make your anus bleed after prolonged exposure.

      Beat will go on.

    • Corporal Clott

      Gasp…. Roger……quickly…..polish the shield, it’s been tarnished again.

      • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

        he was already polishing it. Why do you think they stopped paying? Roger only uses crisp $100 to polish it with and they were running low, so they had to find a new supply from somewhere.

    • SC Dave

      No one is forcing you to be a fan.

      • Corporal Clott

        Dave wins the “incensitive bastard” award of the day. Come on dave.

      • Irish Sweetness

        Exactly.
        I’ve probably pushed myself down the CTE track aways for free. If professional football players want to do it for life-changing sums of money ….. (shrugs) .. .I’ll watch it. The harder they hit, the better. Fighting, football, whatever.

        The NFL didn’t invent CTE. The players know about it now. I don’t see mass-quitting in effect.

        • Corporal Clott

          It’s a compilation and not just CTE. They’re all a slimy bunch of scum and we all know it. Lets be honest here, the NFL today sucks and I’m sorry but the game is tainted.

          • CanadaBear

            If you really believe it’s rigged, why do you watch it? It would be like watching pro rasslin’. I do think some teams get preferential treatment by the league and the refs but that’s as far as I go with it not being on the up and up.

          • Corporal Clott

            Let’s just go with “tainted” ok? Today’s game sucks.

            I predicted what happened in the Super Bowl when the Falcons were obviously told to bend over and take it like a man.

      • It’s sorta like eating meat. When u grow up eating it, it’s nigh impossible to quit when ur older.
        Many of us (30 or over) grew up believing the NFL was an awesome sport and not some diabolical Bond Spectra organization.
        Gonna be hard to quit it, but it can be done.
        I quit baseball cold Turkey after they went on strike.

  • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis
    • CanadaBear

      Those are some seriously bad drugs.

      • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

        I have done some stupid shit while high, but that is a whole new level. Not once while can I ever say I thought ‘Hey let me cut my penis off!’

        • CanadaBear

          If I thought about my wang at all it wasn’t to cut it off. That’s one crazy MF’er.

    • willbest

      This is why I stick to drugs from Pfizer, Merrick, J&J, etc. If I cut off my penis while taking them, at least I got somebody to sue.

      • Irish Sweetness

        Pfizer make that Effexor stuff in Ireland. I knew a maths teacher who was on that for depression. Completely changed him. He’d be buzzing all the time, turning up the old Dean Martino in the office. Not surprising really, it’s got pharmaceutical grade MDMA in it! $150 a month and you’re legally whacked out of your tits …… at work.

        • CanadaBear

          Better living through chemistry. Or not!

          • leftcoastdave

            The corporate motto of E. I. DuPont & Nemoirs.

  • Corporal Clott

    No love from MB yet? Please tell me you didn’t tie the knot again boykie? Why else would you stay away from this awesome blog and such an awesome gaggle of guys?

    • DaMurph

      Nah he didn’t tie the knot, but I’ve seen some of the candidates!

      • Corporal Clott

        In person Murph? Lol. Photos can be faked very easily these days.

    • Irish Sweetness

      Is he in love? Has to be ….

  • Houston fake Moon landing…

    Texans coach Bill O’Brien said first-round QB Deshaun Watson is “ahead of schedule” in his development.

    A month ago O’Brien said the rookie wasn’t “nearly where heneeds to be to be a full-time starter.” Apparently Watson took that criticism to heart. He’s been on a tear since cam opened, reminding the
    Houston Chronicle’s John McClain of a young Warren Moon. Slowly but surely, the Clemson alum is winning O’Brien over. “There’s no doubt he’sahead of schedule,” said O’Brien. “He’s put a lot of time in, and he’s doing a good job.” Watson still has ground to make up on Tom Savage, but he’s closing the gap quicker than expected.- Roto

    • Das Kizer uberwierden…

      Browns coach Hue Jackson said second-round QB DeShone Kizer is progressing faster than expected.

      “He’s understanding the offense,” Jackson said. Reporter Mary Kay Cabot believes that if Kizer “continues at this clip,” he will “soon be taking most of the first-team reps.” Cabot still considers CodyKessler a slight favorite for No. 1 duties. The Browns seem open to Kizer winning the starting job if he shows them the things they need to see this summer. – Roto

      • Corporal Clott

        Talk is cheap butch.

        • One of the perks about not having to rush Trub.
          We don’t have to hear the micro-analysis of how Trub ate his salad like a SB champ.

          • willbest

            True, we aren’t shitting away a top 5 D like Houston. I will give Houston props though. They aren’t afraid to take risks. Though it helps when you have the Browns willing to eat 17 million of your bad decisions

          • I always found the Obrien/Watson match odd.

            Obrien doesn’t pamper his QBs and assumes they’re all Brady.

            That type of system couldn’t be more opposite for Watson.

            But maybe Obrien learned after throwing all those QBs to the wolves. Maybe he’s finally incorporating some spread/option into the playbook.

            But that would be akin to Martz changing his O.

            Be interesting to see.

            The Texans have some weapons with Fuller, Hopkins, Miller and Froman.

          • Corporal Clott

            Lol

      • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

        “He’s understanding the offense” this is Cleveland we are talking about… my assumption is the playbook looks like this:
        http://media.wiley.com/product_data/coverImage300/30/11190226/1119022630.jpg

      • BearDown100393

        What offense?

    • BuddhaJoe

      Yeah, but it’s Tom Savage. Hell, you might be able to beat him out.

    • SC Dave

      Shit, if he’s Warren Moon, we missed big time.

      • That’s just lazy ass analysis.

        He probably thought, “Who’s the last black QB we saw in Houston? Oh, Moon. Ok, he looks like Moon”.

        Their games were NOTHING alike.

        Moon was a pure pocket passer.

        • SC Dave

          No argument. I will say Warren Moon remains the best black QB the NFL has seen, and by a wide margin. But I did not bring the race thing.

          Warren Moon was fucking good. I’d take his equivalent as the Bears QB in a heartbeat. Or less.

          • Corporal Clott

            I know you didn”t mean anything racist by it Dave but until you said that, that thought never even crossed my mind. Let me present a provocative opinion, Moon was one of the “best” QB’s to play the game.

          • SC Dave

            He certainly was. In my opinion, the man has not really gotten his due.

          • Warren Moon’s Publicist

            You know that Warren is in the Hall of Fame right? He wasn’t there cleaning windows.

          • SC Dave

            Yes, I know that.

          • Absolutely.
            If Watson is the next Moon, A LOT of GMs should be fired.

        • Corporal Clott

          Moon was one of the most entertaining/captivating QB’s to play the game. Aah….to dream of real football again, those were the days huh?

    • BearDown100393

      John McClain?
      Yippee Kayeh

  • From everything I’ve heard thus far, Tre is doing well. It’d be a minor miracle if he regained his old form so fast, but hey, maybe he’s related to AP.

    Bears ILB Danny Trevathan (knee) avoided the PUP list and is on the field for the start of training camp.

    This is important for Trevathan, who wasn’t expected to be ready at the start of camp. Recovering from a torn patellar tendon, Trevathan will likely take it slow. – Roto

    Meredith also returned but ‘limited” which means? (thumb)

    • willbest

      That is good news

      • SC Dave

        It would be good to get our second best ILB back.

        You know, if he still can be.

  • beninnorcal

    Nice write-up and analysis, JW. I’m definitely curious to see how he’ll look on the field. But I’m also of the belief that it can’t hurt you (literally, especially) to sit for a season and watch someone else struggle and/or succeed as an NFL qb.
    But as a Bears fan, I’m convinced we are cursed at the position. I sure hope Mitch is The One, but the odds are most-likely stacked against him, this is the Bears we’re talking about here.

    • SC Dave

      Given the Bears QB curse, I’d bet on Glennon before Turbisky

      • beninnorcal

        I kind of feel the same way but I’ll admit to holding a few shreds of hope that Mitch turns out to be good.

  • beninnorcal

    I also still have this odd feeling, for no good reason at all, that Glennon won’t be that bad. Dare I say, decent? I have no idea why, so in reality, he’ll probably suck.
    I like fantasies though, I am a Bears fan, after all.

    • willbest

      We don’t have a VJax in his prime or Mike Evans for him, but we do have a solid interior O-line and a projected top 5 RB

    • SC Dave

      I’ve been on this bandwagon since he was signed.

      The “decent” part.

      I’m thinking better. This is Glennon’s best chance, by far, to realize the dream he has chased since (no doubt) boyhood.

      • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

        I haven’t, Glennon is just a cross between Orton and Hoyer, (full disclosure I loved Orton). Tacoma Narrows is going to run an efficient Offense with few turnovers, but not do much to actually win games. Unfortunately the mobs will slobber over him because of the lack of turnovers and efficiency while we go sub 500.

        • beninnorcal

          I was an Orton guy too. I was initially fuming about the Cutler trade because I didn’t really think Orton was the problem. Not that Cutler wasn’t a clear upgrade though, as I would learn. But alas, Cutler was most definitely not The One either, yardage and TD records be damned.

          • Corporal Clott

            You are my football doppelganger Ben.

    • Corporal Clott

      Glennon showed updide, your post is more reasonable than that of his detractors. Jeff’s gonna look like Mr. Ed if Glennon turns out to be decent.

  • AlbertInTucson

    My question, Professor…

    How many of the guys you cited had as few starts in college as Trubisky?

    • SC Dave

      Over-under? I’ll go one

    • Cam Newton is the only one who comes to mind. And he started from day one in the NFL.

      • Irish Sweetness

        So the relevant stats should be QBs that have started in the NFL with so little experience in college, irrespective of draft position. And if Cam IS the sample size …. we’re pissing into the wind here. I’d rather have Watson’s CV anyway, but I’m pulling for Mitch. Numbers be damned. It’s all written in the stars. He’ll be a legend, or he won’t, enjoy the ride.

        • Corporal Clott

          We are the stars my man.

          • SC Dave

            Truth! We are the stars of this blog!

          • CanadaBear

            Don’t tell Andrew that. He’ll get all snippy.

        • Both Watson and Mahomes are very interesting.
          Will the “It” factor be enough to overcome their limitations? Hmmmmm

        • And Cam was head and shoulders a superior QB prospect over Trub.
          Bigger, faster, stronger, rocket arm and intangibles.
          He was 1 win away from a perfect season.
          His style made it easy to start him right away since unlike other teams, Cam was never force fed an alien O.
          They worked w his college strengths but now we see the running taking its toll

          • SC Dave

            I think that McCaffrey is going to surprise. He seems perfect for that team.

          • I think that’s the plan, but Cam has that Favre gene. He likes to go deep. From what I read, they’re doing a bunch more dump off, screens and intermediate routes with McCafferey, which plays to his strengths (and saves Cam’s body a bit).

            Should be fun to watch. Just glad he didn’t end up on the Puke.

      • AlbertInTucson

        At this point, I don’t think anyone thinks Trubisky is Cam Newton.

        Except, maybe, Jeff.

  • Irish Sweetness

    So whether or not he starts will tell us nothing, but if he does start for 8+ games … his passer rating will tell us if he’s going to be any good or not? Brilliant. The power of numbers!

  • Elect A Clown. Expect A Circus

    Trub is one of the most raw #2 overall pick ever.. Read this “Start Trub Now” meatballs.


    Jeff Dickerson‏Verified account @DickersonESPN 30m30 minutes ago

    Main observation so far today is Mitchell Trubisky needs to keep working on the QB-center exchange. Three snaps on the ground in 1 drill.

    • Corporal Clott

      Gasp…what’s Jeff going to do now?

      Sexy Rexy 2.0?

  • Elect A Clown. Expect A Circus

    Glennon has taken charge.

    Robert Zeglinski‏ @RobertZeglinski 5m5 minutes ago
    “He’s a great leader for us,” Meredith on Glennon so far.

    Da Bears Brothers‏ @DaBearsBros 54m54 minutes ago
    Mike is the clear cut vocal leader on offense.

    • Corporal Clott

      That’s why Pace paid him. So far it looks like no one is going off script and Plan A is still in effect.

    • That link Ender posted to Sanchize was very telling.
      The vets were still sending him around to get food even before the divisional round!
      That shows how rooks are thought of lol

  • Corporal Clott

    “Oddly, as much as I am unexcited for a Glennon-led season, I’m ridiculously excited for a Trubisky-led offense. Like an emotional see-saw.” Surly Jeff

    So the Bears are going to employ a 2 QB system? Jess, Glennon will be viewed as the team leader while Trubinsky can lead the offense. Wait…. could that somehow work?

    • Elect A Clown. Expect A Circus

      Trub himself admits that they (Pace and Fox) have told him this is his redshirt year. “Start Trub Now” is not going to be a thing this year at least.

      Chris Emma‏Verified account @CEmma670 1h1 hour ago

      Mitchell Trubisky, on a redshirt year: “You’ve got to believe in the people that have the plan in place and just believe in that plan.”

    • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

      well Trub has dropped a couple QB-center exchanges. Have Glennon do the pre-snap reads, audibles, hard counts etc. take the snap and hand-off or pitch to Trubs to make the throws. seems reasonable to me.

      • Bender McLugh

        Bill Cowher-esque

    • SC Dave

      Meathead Jeff, you mean.

    • Irish Sweetness

      2 QBs??? For real? Mitch isn’t ready …. so you need two vets, right?

      Oh baby Jebus please ….

  • BuddhaJoe

    Trubisky has accuracy, decent arm strenth, athleticism, and field vision, but he has way too little experience to start this year. He needs to sit and learn to take snaps under center and watch NFL defenses. Glennon is an Orton type who won’t shit the bed but won’t wow you either. The choice is obvious at least this year..

    • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

      yes obvious….Trubisky.

      • BuddhaJoe

        Yeah, so he can get his ass kicked and the meatballs can declare him a bust. They should totally do that. And they should make BRAVERMAN the #1 receiver too.

        • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

          They should make BRAVERMAN #1. I can’t believe they have been holding him back like this.

          • Johnnywad

            They just don’t like him because he’s gay.

        • SC Dave

          He’s just trolling you, Joe.

  • Elect A Clown. Expect A Circus

    LOL..Dannehy still longing for Cutty.

    Andrew Dannehy‏ @ChiBearsAD 8m8 minutes ago
    Replying to @ChiBearsAD

    I’ll say this: None of the QBs were close to as good as Cutler. Trubisky may be one day, but he’s not there yet.

    Here is something to jog memories of all cutty lovers..

    Aaron Nagler‏Verified account
    @AaronNagler

    So Cutler has thrown an INT on the first pass of both Bears practices so far. #midseasonform
    8:35 AM – 27 Jul 2013

    • BerwynBomber

      All of Jeff’s professional friends are Cutty lovers. It is a prerequisite.

      • SC Dave

        So it would seem.

    • Jay Cutler’s Publicist

      Our records dept is more than happy to show you some footage from 2013’s actual season.

  • SC Dave

    “You are the only person I know who was there today who thinks Mitch struggled at all today, outside of snaps.” – Jeff

    Ha ha ha ha. Other than STARTING THE FUCKING PLAY, he was brilliant.

    • Channeling his inner Grossman

    • BearDown100393

      And you can take that to the bank….

      • Corporal Clott

        Lol

    • Corporal Clott

      Funny stuff. Jeff’s killing me, I’m dying here.

  • BerwynBomber
    • Corporal Clott

      Ahem…didn’t Boyles start his rookie year?…cough…cough..

    • Cargo jr.

      Didn’t he spend all off-season reworking his mechanics?

      I bet he still winds up like he’s pitching.

  • ButtonShoes
    • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

      I could disagree with the whole list.

  • Fisherman695

    Sit until next year, learn , learn, learn

  • madscout12

    Who else is tired of this “had surgery just before training camp, preseason, season, etc.” bullshit? Why don’t the bears get some guys who actually want to be on the field for the games that count?

    • SC Dave

      Yeah, and have intact or pre-removed appendices!

      • madscout12

        When I wrote that, it was about McPhee…Wheaton is completely understandable. Can’t predict that shit.

  • Elect A Clown. Expect A Circus

    Fuller played with 1’s today. Looked good both days in pads so far.

    Kevin Fishbain‏ @kfishbain 24m24 minutes ago

    A few practice standouts for the Bears today: Tarik Cohen, Victor Cruz, Kyle Fuller and Akiem Hicks.

  • Corporal Clott

    Marcus Wheaton to miss the rest of training camp due to emergency surgery to have his appendix removed.

    http://www.capitalgazette.com/ct-markus-wheaton-appendix-20170730-story.html

    • Bender McLugh

      The hell, damn

    • SC Dave

      Unreal

    • Elect A Clown. Expect A Circus

      He will be practicing in 5-6 days.

      One NHL player played a play off game 3 days after appendectomy.

    • CanadaBear

      They vacuum those suckers out these days. Should be back pretty quick.

      • AlbertInTucson

        They CAN usually do it laparoscopically, via the naval and a couple of other small incisions (The “vacuum” method described by Dr. CanadaBear) but I THINK that is only as long as the appendix has not burst. The “Emergency” Appendectomy description would concern me.

        Disclaimer: I am not a doctor. I just play one on this blog.

        • CanadaBear

          Foxy said it didn’t burst. Not trying to down play it, no doubt he’ll be sore for a little while but it’s not like they sliced him open.

          • AlbertInTucson

            My concern is the use of the phrase “EMERGENCY Appendectomy”.

    • uknown unknowns…

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