Week 17: Packers at Bears Game Preview

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears. And…

The Bears’ offense has been SCARY 👀

Offensive Stats – Last 4 Games

• 35.0 PPG
• 396.8 Total YPG
• +55 PT Margin
• 159.0 Rush YPG
• 3-1 Record#DaBears pic.twitter.com/6dakOQrJMs

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) December 30, 2020

Three Things the Bears Must Do To Win

Pressure Rodgers. Yes, this seems like an obvious point but it’s even more important with the injuries in the secondary. Rodgers is a master at identifying the weakness in the opposing defense and exploiting it until the score is out of hand. Mike Glennon, with a clean pocket, was able to attack Vildor and Shelley successfully. If Jaylon Johnson doesn’t return, what will Rodgers do to them?
Trubisky Plays to His Non-Packers Norm. No, Trubisky is not a great quarterback. But he’s also not the AWFUL player he has been against the Packers.
- He completes 63.65% of his passes overall. He’s sub-60% against the Packers.
- His career passer rating is 87.4. It’s 79 – a massive drop – against the Packers.
- He’s been sacked 110 times overall. 21 of those sacks have come against the Packers. (Detroit got him 13 times, Minnesota 8.)
Pound the Ball.
- Bucs beat the Packers with 158 yards rushing. Colts beat the Packers with 140 yards rushing. Vikings beat the Packers with 173 yards rushing. Jaguars took the Packers to the wire with 109 yards rushing. The Bears have to know, right now, that anything south of 100 yards rushing won’t get it done against Rodgers and the Packers. This has to be a David Montgomery game.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…but I don’t love ’em this week. One team is home, playing for their postseason life. The other team has eleven wins and is playing for a bye if a ten-point favorite (the Rams) loses at home. Motivation matters. And I don’t think the Bears have much this week.

Tweet of the Week!

‘Twas the night before Christmas and Marc Malnati was writing a letter to Jon Gruden pic.twitter.com/2g9hYgxqtr

— Lou Malnati’s Pizza (@LouMalnatis) December 25, 2018

Special thanks to the folks at Lou Malnati’s for liking and following through on this DBB original concept. It’s a great company and a great pizza and I’m hoping to develop this relationship further in the years to come.

Thoughts on the Actual Game

One has to assume Matt Nagy learned a lot about how to attack this Vikings defense when the two teams played on November 18th. With the most likely scenario being them meeting at Soldier Field next week, why would Nagy roll out any of that this week? Yes, I know Nagy is an aggressive coach and play-caller but putting anything useful on tape for a potential playoff opponent seems reckless.
The Bears defense has received a lot of praise and rightfully so. But what they’ve done the last three games is absurd.
- They held two of their last three opponents out of the end zone entirely.
- They’re allowing 10.67 points per game over that span, nearly a touchdown less than the best scoring defense in the league (Baltimore).
- The opposing QB rating over the last three games: 51.3.
- Rushing yards per game: 62.33.
If you looked at only the score line from Vikings at Lions last week, you’d think Minnesota handled them with ease. They did not. Detroit dominated the first half but was forced to kick field goals. Then Cousins hit Rudolph for the easiest Hail Mary ever executed in NFL history, giving Minny a lead going into the half. If Bears play their starters and commit to the game, they’ll win.
I’ve often joked on Twitter that Kirk Cousins stinks. Well, he doesn’t stink. He’s a good quarterback. But that’s all he is. Good. And you don’t pay players that are just good $30 million dollars a year in a league with a hard cap. This goes especially for Minnesota – a team built to win on the defensive side of the ball. The Vikings weren’t a quarterback away from the championship last year. They got obliterated by Nick Foles and the Eagles passing attack in the NFC title game, a game they had no business being in.
Some folks have suggested avoiding Minnesota in the wildcard round. I’d welcome Kirk Cousins into Soldier Field on a cold Saturday evening with open arms. But there’s definitely a contingent inside Halas Hall that wants to send Minnesota home. Let’s see how influential they can be.