Mike Zimmer. Badass.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…but I don’t love ’em this week. One team is home, playing for their postseason life. The other team has eleven wins and is playing for a bye if a ten-point favorite (the Rams) loses at home. Motivation matters. And I don’t think the Bears have much this week.

Tweet of the Week!

‘Twas the night before Christmas and Marc Malnati was writing a letter to Jon Gruden pic.twitter.com/2g9hYgxqtr

— Lou Malnati’s Pizza (@LouMalnatis) December 25, 2018

Special thanks to the folks at Lou Malnati’s for liking and following through on this DBB original concept. It’s a great company and a great pizza and I’m hoping to develop this relationship further in the years to come.

Thoughts on the Actual Game

• One has to assume Matt Nagy learned a lot about how to attack this Vikings defense when the two teams played on November 18th. With the most likely scenario being them meeting at Soldier Field next week, why would Nagy roll out any of that this week? Yes, I know Nagy is an aggressive coach and play-caller but putting anything useful on tape for a potential playoff opponent seems reckless.
• The Bears defense has received a lot of praise and rightfully so. But what they’ve done the last three games is absurd.
  • They held two of their last three opponents out of the end zone entirely.
  • They’re allowing 10.67 points per game over that span, nearly a touchdown less than the best scoring defense in the league (Baltimore).
  • The opposing QB rating over the last three games: 51.3.
  • Rushing yards per game: 62.33.
• If you looked at only the score line from Vikings at Lions last week, you’d think Minnesota handled them with ease. They did not. Detroit dominated the first half but was forced to kick field goals. Then Cousins hit Rudolph for the easiest Hail Mary ever executed in NFL history, giving Minny a lead going into the half. If Bears play their starters and commit to the game, they’ll win.
• I’ve often joked on Twitter that Kirk Cousins stinks. Well, he doesn’t stink. He’s a good quarterback. But that’s all he is. Good. And you don’t pay players that are just good $30 million dollars a year in a league with a hard cap. This goes especially for Minnesota – a team built to win on the defensive side of the ball. The Vikings weren’t a quarterback away from the championship last year. They got obliterated by Nick Foles and the Eagles passing attack in the NFC title game, a game they had no business being in.
• Some folks have suggested avoiding Minnesota in the wildcard round. I’d welcome Kirk Cousins into Soldier Field on a cold Saturday evening with open arms. But there’s definitely a contingent inside Halas Hall that wants to send Minnesota home. Let’s see how influential they can be.

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It is nice to have such thoughts in December.

• If Minnesota wins Sunday in Detroit and Seattle loses to Kansas City, the Vikings would jump to the 5th seed. In that case the Bears should ABSOLUTELY mail-in Week 17 and accept whomever (Seahawks, Redskins, Eagles) comes to Chicago on wildcard weekend. Of all those possible matchups, the best single unit is Minnesota’s defense. Let them beat the Cowboys and go rough up New Orleans.
• Does anyone really believe the Rams will lose one of these final two games? Yes, the Bears broke them. Yes, Philadelphia took advantage of that breaking. But they go to a lifeless Arizona team this week and then HOST the Niners. They’ll be two touchdown favorites in both games. If Los Angeles plays as poorly as they did Sunday night, they’ll still win both of these games.
• Is there a perception difference between 10 and 11 wins? I think so. And that’s why the Bears should be 100% committed to Sunday’s game in San Francisco even though the result most likely has zero meaning. Go out there Sunday, dominate an inferior opponent and bring the good vibes of a three-game win streak into the postseason.

It’s been a long time. A long, long time. In 2013 the Bears had a chance to make the playoffs over the final month but they were 6-6 at this stage and a definitive mediocrity.  Per Football Outsiders, the Bears have an 85.1% chance to win the NFC North and a 96.3% chance of making the postseason. This is the kind of piece I’ve wanted to write for a long, long, long time.

NFC NORTH

Where Things Stand

Bears (8-4) are home to the Rams and Packers, followed by at Niners and Vikings.

Vikings (6-5-1) are at Seahawks, home to the Dolphins, at Lions, home to the Bears.

Notes

• Any analysis of the remaining schedule has to begin with a basic fact: the Vikings haven’t been good. To expect them now to win their final four games is a bit of a stretch. But their contest in Seattle Monday night will set the tone for the rest of their season. It’s not a “must win” when it comes to making the postseason but it may be when it comes to challenging for the NFC North, especially if the Bears beat the Rams Sunday night.
• Bears are 5-1 at home and their five wins have been by 7, 38, 14, 12 and 5. They have been great at Soldier Field. If they finish the season 6-2 at home, splitting their next two games, they’ll only need a win in San Francisco to host a playoff game in January.

WILDCARD

Where Things Stand

*Note: If the Bears are competing for a wildcard spot, one must assume the Vikings have won the NFC North. So we can leave them out of this equation.*

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The excuses were there and would have been valid.

• No team had played a game on less rest.
• They started a backup QB who hadn’t played extensively in five years.
• They were coming off one of their more emotional wins in recent memory.

But none of that mattered.

I started this season writing about how the Bears looked like the same old Bears and that’s because they did. Blowing a huge fourth quarter lead to the Packers on opening night was very on-brand.

But on Thanksgiving Day, the 2018 Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions despite all the excuses. In doing so, they proved they are a different team. Comparing this year’s Bears to versions of the team under Marc Trestman and John Fox is just ridiculous at this point. This was even a game the Lovie Smith Bears would’ve lost.

This team didn’t. They didn’t need excuses. They just went out and won. Somewhere along the line, the team changed. Somewhere they found their swagger and turned 2018 into something with the makings of a special season.

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Seahawks @ Panthers. Packers @ Vikings. The four teams currently fighting for two wildcard spots in the NFC are facing off. So sit back, crack open an Old Style, and enjoy watching potential playoff opponents beat the hell out of each other. 

Much of the focus for the 2018 Chicago Bears has centered around Mitch Trubisky and the offense, but the key to this season’s success is and has always been the defense.

Sunday night, outside of a couple late touchdowns, the Bears were absolutely dominant defensively. They should be. They have to be.

Despite a new, big money quarterback and a vastly improved offensive line, the Minnesota Vikings don’t have a great offense. They entered Sunday’s game about middle of the pack across the board and in the 20s in terms of yards and points per drive. (Good thing the Bears didn’t hire John DeFilippo.)

The Vikings do have a terrific defense. The Bears weren’t going to be able to put up 30 points. The Bears defense needed to win this game.

They did.

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Greetings, Bears fans! Happy to be back!

A lot has happened since I went on hiatus. Some free agency moves have been made, the draft is done, and guess what? I’m officially excited about football again!

Truly, I don’t know how anyone, besides those who thrive on constant negativity (or those aiming to write for the Tribune), could consider this offseason anything short of a huge success for Chicago. The only move Ryan Pace made that I even slightly disagreed with was not matching the Saints offer for Cam Meredith, but honestly letting him walk is small potatoes compared to all the great additions made in 2018.

Of course there’s still the potential for roster moves and shake-ups (and God forbid, serious injuries) between now and the start of the season. Still, we have a much clearer idea of who the Bears are and what they’re going to look like, and damn it if they aren’t looking pretty, pretty good.

I figured I’d put all this unbridled enthusiasm to good use by making my return to DBB to discuss the four games I’m most looking forward to in 2018:

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