Earlier this offseason, I examined Chicago’s pass rush, and this week I want to shift gears to focus on the other part of pass defense: coverage. We looked at CB yesterday, and today we’ll focus on linebackers before finishing tomorrow with a look at the safeties.

Side note: If you read yesterday’s article, this one will follow the exact same format and have identical table setup, so hopefully the familiarity makes digesting all of the data a little easier. 

Linebackers

Let’s start with a basic look at coverage stats for Chicago’s LB last year. There were 66 LB with 250+ coverage snaps, or 2.1 per team, which makes a convenient threshold for starting players. Both Chicago starting LB – Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards – qualified, and I decided to include Jack Sanborn as well even though he missed the cutoff with only 192 coverage snaps. The table below shows how well all three players performed in a variety of coverage metrics compared to their peers. A few quick notes:

• Ranks compared to the 66 LB in the sample are given in parentheses, and for a little context, 33rd would be exactly in the middle.
• Those in the top 25% (17th or better) are highlighted in green.
• Those in the bottom 25% (50th or worse) are highlighted in red.
• All data for this article is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

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All-22 Breakdown Stream:

If you’re into All-22 film breakdowns, I stream every Tuesday Night during the season to talk through the ups and downs of the game! Come check it out!

I watched the Packers-Bears All-22 tape so that you don’t have to — here were some of my notes:

Getsy Gets Ahead of Himself:

Luke Getsy and the Bears started this game off strong, but as the contest wore on Getsy displayed a strange habit of telling on himself with the Bears’ formation — below is a screenshot of the infamous D’Onta Foreman screen pass that lost 7 yards, and if you look at the personnel that Chicago split out wide you too will see the screen coming.

On this first down, the #Bears go 3-wide with:

– Kmet (TE)
– Tonyan (TE)
– Blasingame (FB)

Can you guess which playcall this is? Hint: It's not 4 verticals. pic.twitter.com/nq42iU5YPS

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) September 11, 2023

But that wasn’t the only moment where it seemed as if Green Bay read Luke Getsy’s mind — here’s another example of the Bears’ formation tipping a play and resulting in a massive start to the second half. With Blasingame (a fullback) out wide to the left side, the Packers send Devonte Wyatt straight upfield in anticipation of a Justin Fields bootleg that Blasingame would usually block for. Wyatt ends up on top of Fields before the quarterback fully turns around.

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Football is back this weekend, baby! Thank goodness!

Since it’s impossible for us to know what players & teams are working on during camp sessions, “evaluating” the videos we see from practice (especially the videos from practices without pads) feels rather silly. Thus, after reading Training Camp reports for ~2 weeks, I’m ready to watch downs where the stats get recorded.

The Preseason may not count towards the Bears’ overall record, but it’s full of:

• Padded Reps
• In a game-like setting
• Where we can assume that players all over the roster are going to try their best to win each down (as opposed to workshopping new techniques that they haven’t yet readied via practice)

That’s not a perfect recipe for glimpsing the future of the 2023 Bears’ season, but it should be more than the scraps we get through Twitter X on the day-to-day.

The players seem to take the preseason seriously (well, as seriously as you can take a team you aren’t game-planning for) as evidenced by the comfortable play of QBs like Patrick Mahomes preseason (222 yards and 3 TDs while completing 18 passes on 26 attempts), Tua Tagovailoa (179 yards and 1 TD while completing 15 passes on 16 attempts), Geno Smith (256 yards and 0 TDs while completing 39 passes on 45 attempts), and plenty of other QBs where strong preseason showings very quietly signaled good things to come.

Don’t take the above paragraph too seriously, preseason performance certainly isn’t a sure thing, but this time of year is all about fun anyways — let’s have some this weekend!

I can’t wait to see what surprises Saturday afternoon has for us. Will Chase Claypool carry his camp dominance into the game? If the starters don’t play, does that mean multiple series of Tyler Scott, Ja’Tyre Carter, and other young guns? At which position (and when in the game) will Terell Smith get his first reps? My mind is racing just thinking about the possibilities.

To Help Pass The Time…

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Happy Monday everyone! Get set for another week of Bears’ camp with extensive Saturday notes written by our own Johnathan Wood here:

Our first episode of Dissecting a Drive covered a drive so early in the year that the Bears offense (& Justin Fields’ play within it) felt juvenile compared to where they finished the 2022 season — so much changed schematically after their win over the Patriots that to claim that Chicago’s 2023 offense will look anything like it did early in 2022 feels foolish.

With that in mind, I charted the evolution of Chicago’s offense by taking a look at the Bears’ 9-play opening drive against Buffalo late in the year to continue prepping for what Luke Getsy may do with the 2023 Bears — in this drive, we see:

• How the threat of Justin Fields’ legs dictated Sean McDermott’s initial defensive calls
• The space Luke Getsy was able to open up by using those adjustments against Buffalo
• How Luke Getsy used Fields to gain blocking advantages in the running game
• A few nice examples of the Bears’ comprehensive Boot rolodex
• And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

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We’re officially 2 weeks out from the start of Bears’ training camp, and that means we’re 14 days away from obsessively scrolling Twitter (and other social media platforms) for updates on Chicago Bears’ practices. With that in mind, let’s spend the next two weeks re-familiarizing ourselves with the Bears’ new additions so that, come camp time, we know the names to watch for.

To start, let’s look at…

Tremaine Edmunds

Backstory: Edmunds was the 16th overall pick of the 2018 draft and, ironically enough, was constantly compared to Roquan Smith pre-draft due their differences in style & perceived value. Edmunds had the size, length, and speed that made linebacking coaches salivate but whose instincts needed serious development whereas Roquan was seen as the ready-made modern WILL LB prototype despite being undersized.

It’s a bizarre twist of fate that the Bears effectively traded one standout first-round linebacker for another (while netting draft picks in the process) in their journey from Roquan to Edmunds, but based on Matt Eberflus’ penchant for size and length in his coverage linebackers I can’t help feeling like Edmunds will get featured within Chicago’s defense in ways that Alan Williams didn’t want to feature Smith.

I’m not normally one for paying Linebackers at the rate you could pay a formidable defensive lineman, but physical freaks like Edmunds  always command a hefty price tag — just watch him move in open space and you’ll see rare physical gifts on display. Suffice it to say, you can’t teach those traits — when pursuing a ball-carrier side-to-side, he’s a nightmare.

#Bears new LB Tremaine Edmunds is an EXPLOSIVE mover.

Watch him plant, drive, and track down the RB to make this stop on 3rd down. For a 6'5, 250lb man to do that? Sheeeeesh. pic.twitter.com/SBRzIjzBoA

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) March 14, 2023

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Normally this kind of statement is hyperbolic, but Tremaine Edmunds is literally one of the biggest inside linebackers in NFL History (based on recent combine tracking data) https://t.co/CjBavbO6im pic.twitter.com/EGdLxWNwmr

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) June 15, 2023

One of the more underrated elements of this off-season has been the Bears fortifying their linebacking unit into one of the best in the sport.

The Bears were aggressive over the first week of free agency, as Ryan Poles now begins the process of rebuilding the roster he needed to tear down in 2022. Here are thoughts (with a few insider-type notes) on the signing writ large.

• There was a bidding war for the services of Tremaine Edmunds, with Buffalo South (the Giants) also making an aggressive bid for his services. Here’s what I know about Edmunds. His former DC, Les Frazier, called the Bears to congratulate them on the signing. Two people who formally worked with him, Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll, were all-in for him. The man who invented the phrase Bills Mafia, Del Reid, texted me to say the Bears got a good one. If you’re cynical about this signing, it’s because you just want to be cynical.
• P.J. Walker is one of those signings that gives me confidence in this front office. It does not make sense for the Bears to have a quarterback backing up Fields that cannot run his offense. Walker can. Is he a great player? No. There aren’t enough good STARTING quarterbacks, let alone backups. But Walker is 4-3 as a starter. If Fields misses a few games due to injury, Walker can hold down the position and perhaps sneak a few victories. That’s all you can ask for from a backup QB.
• I was once having a conversation an NFL personnel man and he said something profound: “Most evaluators can never escape their college grades.” When Poles was asked about Travis Homer he said, “That’s a guy I’ve loved since college.” Homer is only 24 years old. It won’t be surprising if Poles envisions a larger role for him in this offense than many of us expect.

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For the first time since he became the GM, Ryan Poles is showing aggressiveness and his plans for the team are becoming clear.

In a vacuum, it’s hard to argue with trading the first overall pick to the Carolina Panthers for the ninth pick, their 2024 first and, perhaps most importantly, DJ Moore, amongst other pieces. That trade values Moore as a first-round pick, which makes sense when you compare his production to others who have been traded in recent years. Furthermore, getting Moore in the trade will make the Panthers worse in 2024 and 2025, thus improving the draft picks the Bears will receive in those years as part of the trade.

Moore doesn’t just give the Bears an actual Number One wide receiver, he goes them a WR1 who fits their quarterback. His average depth of target (ADOT) — 13.1 — was second amongst players with 100 or more targets. Justin Fields throws a great deep ball and with Moore, Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, the Bears will have three wide receivers who can be on the receiving ends of those bombs.

Edwards+Edmunds+2nd rounder > Roquan

Nobody who is qualified to speak on the subject will tell you the Bears upgraded from Roquan Smith, but they clearly upgraded the linebacker position with a series of strategic moves.

There was a clear, steep drop off once the Bears traded Smith for a second-round pick last year. As much as fans liked Jack Sanborn, the Bears clearly didn’t evaluate the UDFA out of Wisconsin the same way. On Monday, we learned of the team’s intentions to sign Philadelphia’s TJ Edwards and Buffalo’s Tremaine Edmunds — the latter to a rather large deal.

Both are quality starting linebackers who fill not only a position of need, but a position of great importance in the Matt Eberflus defense. The bonus is that, combined, they cost less than Smith and Nick Morrow would’ve in 2023 and the Bears still have a second-round pick from trading Smith.

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(1) If Tremaine Edmunds can’t play Sunday (concussion) it will be a huge blow to the Bills defense. The Bears will be able to stretch the Buffalo secondary with their outside speed and that could leave huge pockets underneath for Trubisky to exploit with his legs. Edmunds would have been the logical candidate to use as a spy. He’s raw but has exemplary closing instincts/speed.

(2) Two things to expect from Buffalo OC Brian Daboll: wildcat looks and bubble screens. The former was shown against New England and seemed to catch Belichick off-guard early. The latter just makes sense, as the Bears have struggled to defend the quick screen and these are easy, one-read tosses to get Peterman “comfortable”.

(3) Worst thing the Bears can do against a quarterback like Peterman is sit back in soft coverages. Fangio should press the receivers outside and bring extra pressure whenever he can. The quicker they make Peterman process information, the more likely he is throw a pick-six or two.

At long last, draft week is upon us. In just two short days, months of endless speculation will finally be rendered obsolete with an action-packed three days of actual picks taking place.

Before we head to the time honored post-draft tradition of arguing why guys you’ve never heard of are going to be great NFL players simply because your team drafted them (and your team obviously had the best draft of any team), allow me to add my personal contribution to the time honored pre-draft tradition of pointlessly trying to guess what’s going to happen before it happens. Please feel free to mock me next week once we know how hilariously wrong this was.

My main goal here is not to be accurate, per se, but to generate discussion about what types of options are likely going to be considered by the Bears at various points in the draft. The logic behind each pick is going to be explained based on Ryan Pace’s trends at various points in the draft (you can review day 1, day 2, and day 3 here) and what players who fit those trends are likely to be good fits for Chicago’s current offense or defense based on current roster needs. Let’s use this more as a starting point for some intelligent last-minute draft discussion than simply honing in on these seven names.

Also, I’m not projecting any trades, even though I think it’s likely at least one involving the Bears will happen.

Round 1, Pick 8

Tremaine Edmunds, ILB

I think this pick is Quenton Nelson if he’s still there, but I don’t think he will be. Tremaine Edmunds it is. Edmunds is the round one option who best checks both boxes for Pace in round 1: he’s an exceptional athlete with tremendous upside at a position where a high-profile veteran was recently sent packing (two other names to keep an eye out for in that regard are Derwin James and Marcus Davenport).

Edmunds steps in as an inside linebacker with the potential to develop into a star under Vic Fangio.

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