Divisional Round Saturday Open Thread
4-2 last weekend, losing only the coin flip game between Washington and Tampa and the game everybody lost, Los Angeles at Houston. (Where the hell did that Justin Herbert performance even come from?) Still, a very good start to the postseason and my quest to make some money off the NFL in 2025.
Saturday January 18th – 4:30 PM ET
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
I’m going to lay the points because I think the Chiefs have spent the entire season preparing for this game and what they did in the 2024 regular season is not particularly relevant. I expect Mahomes to look like Mahomes, Kelce to look like Kelce, and Chris Jones is going to make it impossible for CJ Stroud to mount any kind of comeback. It is January. The Chiefs will Chief.
Saturday January 18th – 8:00 PM ET
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)
Since the Hail Maryland, which I was lucky enough to witness in person, these are the score differentials of the Washington games: 5, 1, 8, 8, 23, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3. Since November, they rarely win big, and they rarely lose big.
I think Detroit will win this game, and ultimately win the NFC, but this strikes me as game wherein Washington could either (a) score early and keep it close, or (b) score late for the backdoor cover. Because I’ve got multiple working scenarios, I’ll take the points.
Saturday 4:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans
Serious question: who would you want as your starting quarterback in September, CJ Stroud or Bryce Young? It’s very clearly a debate worth having now, as Stroud struggled in year two and Young looked every bit a franchise QB down the stretch of this season.
I don’t see any reason to believe this Texans team will win a playoff game. They don’t do anything particularly well. Lay the points, even on the road.
Saturday 8:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-10)
The instinct for gamblers will be obvious. Since most of these Steelers/Ravens games are like 16-14, take the Steelers and that pile of points.
But right now, the Ravens are one of the best teams heading into the tournament and the Steelers are, quite possibly, the worst team remaining.
Is Russell Wilson is going into Baltimore and outscoring the Lamar Jackson/Todd Monken juggernaut? How? Lay the points.
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
There used to be an old gambling maxim when it came to the NFL postseason: never bet the shaky quarterback on the road.
Bo Nix is going to be a good player, especially if he sticks with Sean Payton for the duration of his career. But he’s still a rookie, entering one of the league’s most hostile environments, facing a terrific defensive coaching staff.
Denver getting to the playoffs is a massive achievement in 2024. Their season ends in Buffalo. Lay the points.
All times ET. Home team in CAPS.
Saturday 4:30 PM – Texans at RAVENS (-9)
A battle wages
in the land of McNulty.
The game is the game.
Saturday 8:15 PM – Packers at NINERS (-9.5)
Cover your damn eyes.
Green Bay can beat ANYONE.
They will keep this close.
Sunday 3:00 PM – Bucs at LIONS (-6)
One city makes cars.
One city is all strip clubs.
Baker be dancin’.
Sunday 6:30 PM – Chiefs at BILLS (-3)
My head says Mahomes.
But my heart is in New York,
drenched in Elmo’s sauce.
Last week the picks were 2-4 but in fairness I picked the Steelers expecting them to cover in a blizzard. This week I’m on Baltimore -9, Packers +9.5, Bucs +6, Bills -3.
All times are ET. Home team in CAPS.
Saturday 4:30 PM – HOUSTON v. Cleveland (-2.5)
His name is Flacco.
No, not the Manhattan owl.
But still the man soars.
Saturday 8:00 PM – KANSAS CITY (-4.5) v. Miami
It will be frigid,
projected at six below.
Too bleak for Flipper.
Sunday 1:00 PM – BUFFALO (-10) v. Pittsburgh
It’s the Bar Bill wings,
versus Primanti Brothers.
Dip this win in blue.
Sunday 4:30 PM – DALLAS (-7.5) v. Green Bay
America’s team.
A nation’s eyes upon them.
Will they hold up? Yes.
Sunday 8:15 PM – DETROIT (-3) v. Los Angeles
Jared was a Ram.
And Matthew was a Lion.
The latter moves on.
Monday 8:00 PM – TAMPA BAY v. Philadelphia (-3)
The home team is bad,
and the road team might be worse.
Someone has to win.
The Picks: Cleveland -2.5, Kansas City -4.5, Pittsburgh +10, Dallas -7.5, Los Angeles +3.5, Philly -3 (but I won’t be betting the last one).
Why do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?
I.
Always.
Like.
THE.
Chicago.
Bears.
With Justin Fields, who accounts for about 90% of the offense, not playing, and Nathan Peterman, one of the worst starting quarterbacks in modern NFL history, playing, the Vikings will have their starters on the bench by early third quarter.
Vikings 33, Bears 9
Houston is simply playing better football, week in and week out. And while folks will argue they have no impetus to win this game and fall out of the first pick, the Deshaun Watson trade gave them more than enough ammunition to ensure they come out of the 2023 draft with whomever they deem their top prospect.
Texans 19, Colts 13
And with this prediction, the Chicago Bears will secure the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
