9-3 this postseason against the spread, my finest performance in years. But can I close strong?

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

• There is an inevitability to these Chiefs and no, I don’t think it’s the result of some NFL/referee gerrymandering of the competition. When I look at the head coaches and quarterbacks on Sunday, this is not much of a contest.
• I don’t love these scenarios where one of the Super Bowl assistants is clearly preparing to take a new job come Monday and Kellen Moore is going to be named the New Orleans coach like fifteen minutes after the Super Bowl ends. Is he currently working on his staff? (He has to be!) Kansas City’s coaching staff rarely gets poached; that group will have a singular focus over these two weeks.
• As mentioned yesterday, I think Spags will limit Saquon Barkley, and I don’t see a path to victory for Philadelphia that does not involve a big output from their best player.
• Philly needs to hit Mahomes. Not hurry him, hit him. If Mahomes isn’t on the ground often, the Eagles don’t win.
• Vic Fangio will sit his safeties deep and prevent the big play, but Mahomes has become an expert at dissecting defenses underneath and the Chiefs have built a collection of skill guys expert at doing just that.

Chiefs 24, Eagles 20

Roads, come to an end.

Our journeys, a memory.

But new paths emerge.

I don’t care who wins the Super Bowl this Sunday.

And honestly, I rarely do.

There are exceptions to this, of course. I cared very much when Rex Grossman and the Bears went to Miami to square off with Peyton Manning and the Colts. Too much, to be honest. And if the Bears ever got back to the final Sunday of the NFL season, I’m sure I would care too much again. But unless there are individuals I know involved, or individuals I seriously like/dislike involved, I find it quite hard to emotionally invest in the entire enterprise.

One time I was on a flight from Queens to Jacksonville and was seated across the aisle from Tom Coughlin. He was reading a biography of John Wooden, and I introduced myself. For the whole of that flight, Coughlin asked me questions about MY life. He wanted to know how a musical was constructed, what my work habits were, how we cast, etc. I never even got to tell him I had this website! But I also never rooted against Coughlin again, especially in those two Super Bowls. To the contrary, there is no scenario where I would ever root for Tony Dungy or Aaron Rodgers.

The Super Bowl is important, to the two teams playing and their fans. For this writer, when the Bears are not involved, the Super Bowl is about the $500 box I share at the Copper Kettle and trying a new wing recipe in the air fryer. (This year’s will be a sriracha honey thing.) It’s a solemn occasion, marking the end of the NFL season, a season that seems to move quicker and quicker the older I get. As someone who only roots for one team, my sporting focus shifts to the Premier League, and the four golf majors on the horizon. But I don’t have a dog in the soccer fight, and unless Tiger Woods can suddenly walk again, the same can be said for golf. (I root for Rory McIlroy but I’ll be honest, I’m tired.)

Read More …

Player to Watch on the Philadelphia Eagles.

DeVonta Smith is one of my favorite players in the NFL. Here is what I wrote in the leadup to the 2021 NFL Draft:

I don’t get it.

I’m sure there are scouty/personnel types who will quibble at Smith’s measureables (oh no, he doesn’t weigh enough!) but when you watch him on the field, which is where he actually plays football, you see an NFL star.

In the modern NFL there are very few line-em-up-and-beat-the-corner wide receivers. The game is about matchups and Smith is a matchup nightmare. He’s the best wide receiver in this draft. He’s the best return man in this draft. He’s the best player in this draft.

This season, Smith had 95 catches for 1,196 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s a star, but on a stacked roster, he’s not treated like one. The Super Bowl has a habit of changing the perception of a player and I think that’s about to happen with Smith. With the deep shots to A.J. Brown made more difficult by Chris Jones and the pass rush, expect Smith to devour the Chiefs underneath.

If the Eagles win the game, it will not surprise me to see Smith win the MVP.

The Number: 50.5.

Here are some things to consider when looking at that number.

• From Lineups.com: “…in 54 Super Bowls played [with an over/under], the total has gone over in 27 of them, and the total has gone under in… 27 of them.” The game itself offers no historical insight. This is a coin flip bet.
• Nobody likes to bet the under on Super Bowl Sunday. Who the hell wants to root for less points? But as Dannehy pointed out last week, these are superior pass rushes. And historically, in the Super Bowl, the great pass rush beats the great offense. (See: whenever the Giants and Pats met in a Super Bowl.)
• DBB considers Thanksgiving the line of demarcation for the NFL season. Before that day – a day in which I am reminded how much I love stuffing only to not eat it again for a year – a team’s form is rather inconsequential. Since that day:
  • Eagles are averaging 34.1 points per game with Jalen Hurts.
  • Eagles are allowing 19.4 points per game, albeit against some shockingly poor quarterbacks.
  • Chiefs are averaging 27.3 points per game.
  • Chiefs are allowing 19.6 points per game.

I like the loser of this game around 20 points. That means the winner needs to hit 31 for the over, and that signals the game as something of a blowout. Unlikely.

Bet the under. 

Player to Watch on the Kansas City Chiefs.

Orlando Brown Jr. is an interesting football player.

As left tackle for the Kansas City Chiefs, he has historically gotten off to slow starts but finished seasons as one of the more dominant tackles in the sport. It happened in 2021. It happened in 2022. And now he’s just weeks away becoming a filthy rich individual, with teams across the league desperate for offensive line help.

The Chiefs tagged Brown this past season. It is unlikely they would do that again. But what better opportunity for the player? Brown will square off against an historically elite pass rush with a hobbled quarterback behind him. If he keeps the pocket clean for Patrick Mahomes in February, he’ll be lining his pockets as one of the richest offensive linemen in the league history come March.

And there’s a team in Chicago that would gladly pay full freight.

Super Bowl lesson.

Always be adding weapons.

Nothing else matters.

Prop Bet #1

Leonard Fournette to Score a TD: +120

“Playoff Lenny”

The Chiefs allowed 122.1 yards per game on the ground this season but they haven’t really been tested there this postseason. (Cleveland only ran the ball 20 times against them but averaged 5.3 yard a clip.) If the Bucs are going to make this the game I think it will be, Fournette will have to play a major role. That means 20+ attempts, 100+ yards and points.

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Prop Bet #2

Tom Brady OVER 0.5 Rushing Yards: +130

Two points on this prop.

• It is a situational bet. It requires the Bucs finding themselves in 3rd or 4th and 1 because Brady ain’t scrambling for yards. But Tompa is the greatest sneak quarterback of all-time and in this game every yard feels like twenty. Every first down feels decisive, and that’s especially true when the opponent seems to score at will like Kansas City. Arians will keep this game in the most reliable hands he’s got.
• Brady has actually hit this number in two of his last four games. So at + money, this is a bet well worth making.

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Prop Bet #3

Travis Kelce OVER 8.5 Catches: +130

Often, it’s very easy to applaud Vegas for how they set these over/unders. But this one is a no-brainer. Here are Kelce’s catch totals over his last ten games: 13, 8, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 10, 8.

This is the Super Bowl. It figures to be a shootout. Kelce is the best receiving option in the sport and Todd Bowles will manufacture pressure every way imaginable, leaving Mahomes to look for his most reliable outlet. My projected line for Kelce: 11 catches, 107 yards, 1 TD.