Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Caleb.

The 2024 Chicago Bears no longer exist. They have ceased to be.

And as a result of this fact, I am not going to be spend much time writing about a midweek matchup at what I’m sure will be a Seahawk fan-laden Soldier Field.

There is only one reason to truly care about tonight’s game: Caleb’s stat line.

Through 16 games, Caleb is completing at 62.2%, 3,271 yards, 19 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and a QB rating of 89.3. These are terrific numbers for a rookie QB, but they are extraordinary numbers when you consider the coaching and offensive line turmoil that has surrounded him this season.

It is no coincidence that agents around the sport are beginning to leak their clients’ interest in the Bears job. This is a coaching gig that comes with a productive, yet moldable, young quarterback.

Side note: Bill Simmons, on his podcast with Cousin Sal, referred to Caleb’s production as “garbage time.” There is NO garbage time for a rookie quarterback. Every snap matters. Caleb’s rookie season is one of the most underrated I can remember.

My Sight & Sound List

Every decade, Sight & Sound magazine polls filmmakers, critics, academics, etc. and compiles a list of the greatest films ever made. Some of those polled vote for their favorite movies. Some polled try to make political points with their list. Some, like my former professor Dan Streible, use their vote as opportunity to draw attention to noncanonical works. I’ve recently been doodling what my list would like – what are the ten films I consider the best ever made? Here’s what I settled on. Thoughts will follow the list.

All That Jazz (Bob Fosse, 1979)

The Breaking Point (Michael Curtiz, 1950)

Crimes and Misdemeanors (Woody Allen, 1989)

The Godfather (Francis Ford Coppola, 1972)

The Godfather: Part II (Francis Ford Coppola, 1974)

High and Low (Akira Kurosawa, 1963)

Jaws (Steven Spielberg, 1975)

Kansas Saloon Smashers (Edwin S. Porter, 1901) Kansas Saloon Smashers (1901) – Carrie Nation | Edwin S. Porter

The Umbrellas of Cherbourg (Jacques Demy, 1964)

Waiting for Guffman (Christopher Guest, 1996)

Why do I hate this list?

No Hitchcock. No Lumet. No Mel Brooks. No female filmmakers. I can make an argument for every film on this list. I can also make an argument for 100 other films, like Rear Window and 12 Angry Men and Young Frankenstein and Cleo from 5 to 7. For now, this list will have to do.

Next week, I’ll provide a list I call “Ten Films it Seems Only I Love.”

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In addition to adding 5 new starters on offense this offseason, the Bears fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and replaced him with Shane Waldron, who spent the previous 3 years holding the same position in Seattle.

In order to better understand what Chicago’s offense might look like in 2024, I’ve been digging into data about Waldron’s offenses at his last stop. I looked at down and distance play calling tendencies yesterday, and today want to explore personnel and formation trends.

Today’s data comes from Sumer Sports, which only has information for 2022 and 2023, so nothing from Waldron’s 1st season in Seattle will be included.

Personnel Groupings

Let’s start by looking at common personnel groupings, which looks solely at the listed position of players on the field and not where they are lined up. These groupings are commonly listed by 2 numbers, where the 1st is the number of running backs and the 2nd is the number of tight ends. Since teams play 5 skill position players at a time, the number of wide receivers is then implied. The 2 most common groupings are 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and 12 (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR).

The table below shows how frequently the Seahawks and Bears used and passed out of each grouping on 1st-2nd down in 2023, along with their ranks compared to the rest of the NFL. Values in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while those in the bottom 25% are red. Seattle’s data from 2022 is included as well for comparison.

(side note: if the table gets cut off, click on it to view the full table in a new screen)

A few thoughts:

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Is there a position harder to look at with the standard NFL camera angle than right guard?

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) August 19, 2022

As is the want of DBB, we’ll approach this practice game quarter-by-quarter. And hopefully I will be able to stay awake for all four. (That is highly doubtful. With both teams sitting 20+ players, this is a more useless preseason game than most.)

Quarter One.

• Velus Jones looks like he’s going to be the return man. Showed a remarkable burst on the opening kickoff (before fumbling) and had a long punt return later. When you have that kind of speed on your roster, you have to use it, and the return game is a good way to start.
• First offensive drive, the Bears surrendered a lot of pressure. But Fields was genuinely quick to recognize it and get the football out of his hands. Remember, this is all vanilla game planning. Nothing the Bears ran against Seattle had anything to do with Seattle.
• Never overreact to the preseason. But Cole Kmet looks like he’s going to be a central part of this passing game.
• Just an eye test thing, but I think the Bears need to move Trestan Ebner ahead of Khalil Herbert on their depth chart. He’s got a better burst and he’s tougher to bring down. Herbert is useful but Ebner looks better as a runner.
  • Ebner didn’t make it through the first half healthy. Something to monitor.
• This game kicked off at 8:13 or so ET. By 8:43 all of the relevant Bears were out of the game. These games in August should all be early afternoon kickoffs.
• No idea how well Teven Jenkins played inside against the better Seahawks, but he didn’t seem to make any visible errors. (When Seattle moved to the backups late in the quarter, Jenkins leveled a few guys.)

Quarter Two.

• Trevor Siemian is having a nice summer for this team. You want a backup quarterback that can execute the offense and not be an automatic loss. Siemian is that.
• Do the Bears intend to use Trenton Gill on kickoffs?
• Big time whiff by Kyle Gordon on the long Homer run at the start of the second quarter. Happens. But needs to get corrected.
• Good reason to be concerned about Trevis Gipson. For a guy expected to start on the edge, he’s had a relatively unimpressive summer and was kept in this game far too long. Bears need pass rush production aside from Robert Quinn. Gipson need to provide a significant amount of it.
• Dante Pettis relieved Dazz on punt returns last week and relieved Velus this week. Seems like he’ll have a spot on this roster.
• A guy slid to end the half for Seattle. And then he looked shocked by the moment. That seems about right for these awful games.

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Playing preseason games on short weeks is absurd, and the Bears are actually acknowledging that absurdity by intending to play their starters less in the second preseason game than in the first. (Almost like these contests have very little value to teams, outside of financial.)

Still, we shall watch tonight. And there are a few things to watch.

• Teven Jenkins. In the last month, Jenkins has gone from potentially being traded to nursing a mysterious injury to third-string offensive tackle to starting right guard. That’s where he’ll line up tonight and it’s in the best future interest of this franchise for him to thrive at that position. A solid performance tonight likely lands him in the starting five upfront against the 49ers in a few weeks.
• Dazz Newsome. One would hope the coaching staff haven’t completely given up on Dazz as punt returner due to a single fumble in the first preseason game; that remains to be seen. But Dazz has been really good since botching that return, both in the remainder of that game and in practice sessions this week, even taking some first team reps with Justin Fields.
• The Jack Sanborn Show. On Saturday, Sanborn had fans on the lakefront saying, “Roquan who?” And with Roquan still sidelined due to a contract dispute, it’ll be interesting to see if Coach Flus moves Sanborn up the depth chart at all, perhaps into the realm of those first 6-10 plays? Doubtful, but it’s something.

Enjoy the second practice game!

Como la bajó Damiere Byrd para la conversión de 2ptspic.twitter.com/th7fdXZ9Vr

— NFL Latino TV 🏈🎅 (@NFLlatinoTV) December 27, 2021

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And there’s reason for optimism when it comes to the future of this franchise. There is young talent at some key positions, including quarterback. Seeing that young talent continue to develop over these final three games will only build excitement for the 2022 campaign.

Fields vs. Seattle’s Defense

This is still exclusively about Justin Fields, at least for the next month..

• Seattle currently possesses the league’s worst pass defense, allowing 274 yards per game through the air. This is not a game for Matt Nagy to rely on his “run on first down unless someone pays me not to” strategy. This is a game to put on the rocket right arm of his young quarterback.
• Seattle ranks 26th in QB hits and 27th in sacks. This is not a week where Fields should expect to be under a tremendous amount of pressure. (Seattle also played a pretty physical game with the Rams on Tuesday so this is a seriously short week for them.)
• A Tweet from Nicholas Moreano: “#Bears coach Matt Nagy said that “it can be done” to incorporate more fast-tempo offense. That was something Justin Fields mentioned as being one of his strengths in his postgame press conference.” 
  • It’s obvious to anyone watching that Fields thrives in what we used to call “hurry-up” and is now referred to as “tempo”. One reason is because Chicago’s outside weapons are no good and tempo tires out defenders, giving folks like Damiere Byrd a serious advantage. (When criticizing the outside weapons, Darnell Mooney is, of course, exempt.)
  • Can we talk about how insane it is that the Bears have a rookie quarterback who has publicly admitted what he likes to do and a coach who has yet to seriously implement it 15 weeks into the season? Nagy’s 2021 self-implosion has been a thing to behold.
• Seattle’s approach to the Rams was to limit their deep exposure so Matthew Stafford just peppered them with underneath stuff. This is a week to feature David Montgomery in the passing attack.

Video of the (Christmas) Week: Volume I

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The Bears are not in a must-win situation Monday night. But the entire locker room needs to approach the game like they are. They’ve said all the right things since Sunday’s debacle. Will they show up and play with urgency? We shall see.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

Yes, the Green Bay result was dreadful. But one has to remember it was merely Week One. The arrow is pointed decidedly up for this group and things are going to start moving in that direction quickly.

Why the Bears Will Win?

• Pass rush. Khalil Mack was with the Bears one week before delivering one of the best halves of football the organization has ever seen.  Roquan Smith won’t be spending much time on the bench any longer. Akiem Hicks and Roy Robertson-Harris both looked like massive disrupters against a good Packers front. Seattle’s front is not very good. Russell Wilson was sacked six times by Denver and it could have been ten if he weren’t so damn elusive. The Bears will get to him early and often.
• Jordan Howard. The Broncos averaged 4.7 yards per carry against Seattle with two backs not in Howard’s league. Couple that with Nagy taking heat for abandoning his best offensive player at pivotal junctures against Green Bay and the stage is set for Howard to have a big, 25+ carry night.
• The Crowd. Outside of a few outspoken Twitter folks there is genuine enthusiasm surrounding this team right now and the crowd should reflect that Monday night. Primetime. Lubed up. Good weather. Soldier Field should be an exceedingly difficult place for the visitors this week.

Why They Won’t

• Offense in Neutral. Progress should be expected from Week One to Week Two but it’s nowhere near guaranteed. If the Bears struggle on offense like they did in the second half at Lambeau Field, will the defense be able to get them over the finish line?
• Elusive Russell Wilson. He keeps more plays alive than any other quarterback in the league and he’ll be expecting to see Mack, Leonard Floyd and company in his backfield all evening long. This is not a receiving corps, especially without Doug Baldwin, that is going to get a ton of separation off the line of scrimmage. But if Wilson can keep plays alive 3-4 seconds longer, players like Tyler Lockett, Brandon Marshall and Will Dissly will find space in the secondary.
• I Heart Michael Dickson. Have you seen this guy punt yet? He’s the most incredible young punting talent to enter the league in generations. As a punting enthusiast I debated flying to Chicago Monday morning to see him in person. (But alas, I have jury duty here in Queens.)

Tweet(storm) of the Week

Lol everything look open on a screenshot, @haha_cd6 woulda been Lambeau leapin if he woulda threw this, facts 🤷🏽‍♂️ https://t.co/x1iwUQNHjm

— Kevin King (@King_kevvoo) September 11, 2018

A few thoughts on this:

• Dan Durkin thinks he’s a professional NFL scout. He’s not. And yesterday he faced an onslaught of criticism (King, Gil Brandt, Dan Orlovsky, all of ESPN) for this Tweet because it reflected the amateurish and incompetent manner in which he approaches film study. Durkin would benefit from spending time in tape study with actual professionals. As someone who HAS DONE THAT I can assure you he’d stop this screenshot bullshit pretty damn quickly.

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Much indebted to Mr. Klein. A good and honorable man. And if CK wants to use the word elegancy you let him use it. He’s that kind of guy.

To the league we go! One thought on each NFL franchise, a bunch of thoughts on the Chicago Bears and a Super Bowl prediction!

• The Bears are going to be a good team with a bad quarterback until they wake up and stop playing the bad quarterback. If Mitch Trubisky doesn’t get 8 or more starts in 2017, then 2017 will be a wasted season. Sadly I’m starting to think he won’t.
• Think about Brock Osweiler, cut by the Browns at the end of this preseason. He’s 26 years old. He’s made $40 million. And he’s only been sacked 52 times in his entire career! So Osweiler made more than $769,000 per sack taken.
• Fewest points in a 16-game season is 140 from the 1992 Seattle Seahawks. I say the Jets challenge that. You tell me how the Jets mount a single 80-yard touchdown drive this season.
• Asked the Official Lady Friend of DaBlog, Ms. Sarah Scully, what she thought about the Los Angeles Rams. She responded, “I don’t.”
• Andrew Luck is one of the best players in the NFL. And now Chris Ballard has a couple years to rescue Luck from the middle of the ocean, where he was abandoned by a pill-popping owner and the quite possibly insane Ryan Grigson. Colts finish last in the AFC South.
• Two quarterbacks who have no business being on their current teams: Tyrod Taylor (Buffalo) and A.J. McCarron (Cincinnati). If the Bills hadn’t brought Tyrod back there’s a good chance he’d be on the Chicago Bears right now, sparing the fan base from the nightmare of Glennon. McCarron is better than all of the quarterbacks on the Jet, Jaguar, Colt (sans Luck) and Niner rosters.
• Defensive Player of the Year: Leonard Floyd, Chicago Bears. (Yep. 12-15 sacks.)

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