Yesterday, Ryan Poles, Kevin Warren and Thomas Brown met the media. Here are my thoughts.

Warren and Poles.

• Two words strike me every time I hear Kevin Warren speak: empty suit. When he says things like the Bears “have the greatest fans in all of sports”…does anyone actually believe him? In what world is that even on the periphery of accurate?
• Warren made it a distinct point to confirm Ryan Poles will remain the GM of the franchise moving forward and will be the “point person” for the head coaching search.
• Warren said that Caleb Williams is “special” and can “become more special.” Yes, he actually said that. I’d like to be more special.
• Warren lists a bunch of platitudes he’s looking for in the next head coach. My favorite? “A decisive decision maker.” Isn’t making a decision, by very definition, decisive?
• Poles cites the “end of game detailing” as the reason for firing Flus.
• Warren keeps repeating that “today” is when the Bears trajectory starts pointing upwards. What has he been doing for the last two years?
• Warren said the Eberflus decision was not made when Flus met the media Friday. This is also what I was told by several people. But still…why not just have Flus delay his media availability until the afternoon if you’re discussing his fate?
• Poles seems deflated, beaten down. He has every right to be disappointed with the result on the field, but this is a moment to put on a show for the cameras.
• Poles was asked about the Shane Waldron experience. He paused for about three minutes before not answering.

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I don’t know George McCaskey, despite spending the last few years having to deny I am George McCaskey. Have we spoken? Yes. Several times. That’s it. We don’t have dinners together. But over the years I have become quite friendly with people deep inside the organization, several of whom can be described as being in George’s inner circle. And based on my communication with George, and my conversations with these individuals, there is an unequivocal truth to the following statement: George McCaskey is a very good man, and he very much wants the Chicago Bears to be successful.

Can George McCaskey engineer that success? So far, no.

First, something needs to be repeatedly stated. George is one of the most hands-off owners in the league. He hires a general manager, and that GM runs the entirety of football operations. (Ryan Pace was singularly responsible for millions spent on facilities in Lake Forest.) Kevin Warren was hired to take over the business end from Ted Phillips and get the new stadium sorted. The administrative aspects of this organization are a mess. The stadium issues are dramatically unresolved. Is Kevin Warren the worst hire of George’s tenure? No, not in a world where the football leadership was once Phil Emery and Marc Trestman. But Warren is pretty close.

Now, an argument that is constantly made is that George should hire a “football guy” to run the franchise from the ownership level. But that method has been proven time and time again to fail. Parcells flopped in Miami. Holmgren flopped in Cleveland. Coughlin flopped in his return to Jacksonville. These are three of the most impressive football minds in the modern game and they achieved nothing in those roles. Who would the Bears even hire? So, while many bark mad about the ownership of this club, I focus my attention on the football, and that means the GM.

The Bears could have Jim Harbaugh running their ballclub right now but that would have required firing Ryan Poles last off-season. Harbaugh is the alpha in an organization. He chooses the individual serving in the head personnel role, and he chose Joe Hortiz, his longtime friend, to lead the front office in Los Angeles. And, be honest with yourself, did Poles deserve to be fired in January? Poles tore down a decrepit roster for two seasons and rebuilt the team into what most of us believed should be a double-digit win unit this year, even with a rookie quarterback under center. They still need talent on both of their lines, but I dare you to find one preseason analyst who called this Bears roster anything other than seriously improved. If this 2024 season had happened a year ago, the move to Harbaugh would have been something of a no-brainer. But it did not.

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This is not going to be a post, or a column. This is just going to be a comment, a statement that I believe should be made and I want it to sit as the main post on this site for the entirety of this Wednesday.

To George McCaskey. To Kevin Warren. To Ryan Poles.

You’re losing.

Losing games. Losing the fans. Losing every drop of momentum built up over the previous two off-seasons. You’re losing me, a dedicated supporter and someone who has relentlessly watched this team every week since Bears football was available on the east coast and covered them diligently (at a personal financial cost) since 2005. I’m not abdicating my fandom by any means. What I am beginning to abandon is the burden, the burden of the Bears. You’ve become a chore, and one I am refusing to prioritize moving forward.

I don’t care who the offensive playcaller is. Matt Eberflus is still the coach. Today. But if the Bears watch the Green Bay Packers leave Soldier Field Sunday victorious again, that must change. No more “we don’t fire coaches in-season” bullshit. That’s what you have always done and what you have always done is fail. If the Packers win Sunday and you don’t make an immediate change in the leadership of this franchise, you are displaying (again) a glaring lack of awareness.  If the Packers win Sunday and you don’t make a seismic shift on the coaching staff, don’t be surprised as fan anger turns to apathy for the remainder of this campaign and into the off-season.

You’re losing. Again.

When will you finally have enough of it?

Sincerely,

DBB.

We’re so close to real football, you can almost taste it.

Also, if you’re looking for a review of the last game (and Darrell Taylor) look no further:

There is a selflessness to being a sports fan.

For a few hours each week, I allow my emotional existence to be impacted by a collection of individuals with whom I have zero personal connection. They don’t know me. They don’t care about me. To paraphrase a great Jerry Seinfeld bit, the only thing linking us is the laundry the fellas wear.

But emotions are only involved when there are expectations, and it’s been five years since I’ve had any expectations when it comes to the Chicago Bears. After sitting in the building and watching Cody Parkey shank away the 2018 season, Noah and I drowned our grief at the Lou Malnati’s bar. There was immense sadness, but that sadness was accompanied by hope. 2018 was a site to build upon, and 2019 would be the erection of a championship tower. I predicted the 2019 Bears to go to the Super Bowl, but Mitch Trubisky had other plans. (Those plans, it would turn out, were that he would play the quarterback position badly.)

Ryan Poles made two moves over this last week, trading for a pair of defensive linemen in Darrell Taylor and Chris Williams. To the outside observer, these would be considered minor moves, depth moves, backend of the roster stuff. But they struck me, symbolically, as the moves of a GM who thinks his roster is close to competing for a title. And I happen to think he’s right. The 2024 Bears have a terrific defense and the best collection of “skill” players in organization history. This is a team that should win double-digit games and be in the tournament come January. And one has to look no further than last year’s NFC playoffs to understand that every team in the tournament has a prime opportunity to play on the final Sunday.

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I don’t know what the Jerry Angelo “project” was; his tenure was marred by a pernicious reluctance to add top receiver talent and ultimately doomed by Caleb Hanie’s inability to play the quarterback position at a high school level.

I don’t know what the Phil Emery “project” was; his tenure never got out of the starting gate, as hiring Marc Trestman (and not Bruce Arians) derailed any potential success for the organization on his watch.

I think I know what the Ryan Pace “project” was, but he learned the single most important lesson for an NFL GM: if you get the quarterback wrong your chance at success is minimal. (And he technically got it wrong twice.)

The Ryan Poles Project may sound like the name of a 70s prog rock band, but it is actually the most coherently executed management plan the Chicago Bears have displayed in forty years. It’s had a clear, definable trajectory since George McCaskey met Poles at that Blackhawks Bar in O’Hare (or something). But its legibility took form even before that meeting.

When the Bears were interviewing general manager candidates to replace Pace, no candidate was more honest than Poles. He looked George and Ted in the eyes and told them, in no uncertain terms, that the roster was crap. He told them he would have to burn the entire thing to the ground, collapse it like one of those Vegas casinos that can no longer survive an endless series of minor renovations. He told them what he envisioned was not a quick fix, but instead a multi-year project that would end with the Bears being consistent contenders. He needed them to commit to that vision, that project. And they did.

Flus brought in.

But say goodbye

to Khalil, Bob Quinn

and some Roquan guy.

Loss after loss,

Fans head for the hills.

But hold up, hoss.

It’s Davis Mills!

Like healing a leper,

They’ve got the first pick.

And here comes Dave Tepper,

the des-per-ate prick.

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Ryan Poles is just a few days away from running his 3rd NFL draft for the Chicago Bears. Now that we have two years of draft history to go on, let’s dive in to see what lessons might apply for 2024.

Targets athletes

The first and most clear trend is that Ryan Poles likes to draft athletic players. We see this through a few different metrics:

• Relative Athletic Scores (RAS): This scales athletes on overall athleticism from 0-10, with 5 being average, 9 being the 90th percentile, etc.
  • Through 2 seasons, the average Poles draft pick has had an RAS score of 8.6, in the 86th percentile for their position, and that increases to over 9 – top 10% of athleticism – if you look only at picks from Days 1 & 2.
  • Overall, only 1 of 13 players drafted in the first 5 rounds have had an RAS below 8, indicating they are not in the top 20% of athletes at their position.
    • Side note: S Elijah Hicks and P Trenton Gill, both 7th round picks, did not test to qualify for RAS, so they are excluded from the numbers above.
• Athleticism Score: This athleticism metric from Next Gen Stats is less clear about how it is calculated, but generally is grouped from 50-99, with 50s being below average, 60s average, 70s + 80s above average, and 90s elite in terms of overall athleticism.
  • Of the 16 players with an athleticism score published on their NFL draft profile, 15 have a score above 70, indicating they are above average. Once again, this trend is even stronger if you look only at the higher and more meaningful picks, as all 13 players drafted in the first 5 rounds score in the 70s or 80s.
  • Overall, the average athleticism score is a 76.
    • This data set is missing a host of 6th-7th rounders: S Kendall Williamson, S Elijah Hicks, P Trenton Gill, DT Travis Bell, and C Doug Kramer

To be fair, most of the high draft picks in the NFL are athletic players. Thus, this lesson doesn’t really tell us specific names the Bears might target. But it does let us look for players at need positions the Bears might avoid.

The overwhelming majority of players projected to go in the top 2 rounds have a high RAS, but there are a few highly rated guys who aren’t super athletic, like DE Darius Robinson (3.97 RAS) or C Zach Frazier (6.46 RAS), and it seems unlikely the Bears will be interested in a player like that.

Once you start to get into the middle rounds, there are more guys who aren’t great athletes, and I will be surprised to see the Bears target anybody from this list of mid-round players at positions of need:

• WR Jamari Thrash (6.83 RAS)
• WR Brenden Rice (7.65 RAS)
• WR Jacob Cowing (6.24 RAS)
• WR Javon Baker (7.81 RAS)
• WR Tahj Washington (4.73 RAS)
• C Sedrick Van Pran (7.61 RAS)
• G Isaiah Adams (7.18 RAS)
• DE Bralen Trice (7.49 RAS)
• DE Austin Booker (7.05 RAS)
• DE Javon Solomon (7.23 RAS)
• DT T’Vondre Sweat (4.15 RAS)
• DT Leonard Taylor III (7.25 RAS)
• DT McKinnley Jackson (2.99 RAS)
• DT Tyler Davis (6.93 RAS)

Not afraid to trade

Through 2 drafts, Poles has pulled off 8 trades that involved pick swaps. In 7 of those, he moved down to create extra picks, which seems to be his preference. Given that the Bears currently only have 4 draft picks for this year, I anticipate we will see him trade down at least once to pick up extra selections, and I won’t be shocked to see multiple trade downs.

The Bears’ pre-draft actions also hint that they are heavily considering trading down early in the draft. Teams are limited to bringing in 30 players for pre-draft visits, and the Bears have used several of them on players projected to go in the 20-50 range despite not currently having a pick between 9 and 75.

• OT JC Latham (20th on consensus big board)
• C Jackson Powers-Johnson (25th)
• C Graham Barton (27th)
• DE Chop Robinson (28th)
• OT Tyler Guyton (30th)
• WR Xavier Worthy (35th)
• C Zach Frazier (47th)

That’s a whole lot of players – more than 20% of their allotted visits – who are projected to go in a range where the Bears have no picks, which indicates to me they are seriously considering trading back from the 9th pick.

To be fair, Chicago has also done their homework on potential fits if they stick at number 9, as they’ve brought in with players ranked 5th (WR Malik Nabers), 6th (WR Rome Odunze), 8th (Dallas Turner), and 10th (Brock Bowers) on the consensus big board. My guess is that the Bears will have 1-2 guys they would take at pick 9 if they are available, but otherwise will look to trade back a bit and pick up an extra pick or two in the draft.

It’s also worth noting that Poles also showed a willingness to move up in the draft for a guy he covets last year, when he gave up a 4th round pick to move from 61 to 56 and secure CB Tyrique Stevenson. Given the small number of picks this year, a trade up seems less likely, but Poles could get creative and look to move up with 2025 draft capital. They currently have an extra 2nd round pick for next year, and that could be packaged with pick 122 this year to get into the 2nd round (this is what the Bears did to trade up for WR Anthony Miller in 2018).

Double dipping 

Another trend we’ve seen clearly through Poles’ first two drafts is the willingness to draft 2 or even 3 players at the same position.

• In 2022, he selected S Jaquan Brisker in the 2nd round, and then S Elijah Hicks in the 7th.
• In 2022, he selected 3 interior offensive linemen – Zachary Thomas, Doug Kramer, and Ja’Tyre Carter – in the 6th and 7th rounds.
• In 2023, he took DT Gervon Dexter in round 2, DT Zacch Pickens in round 3, and DT Travis Bell in round 7.
• In 2023, he  took CB Tyrique Stevenson in round 2 and CB Terell Smith in round 5.

It’s hard to envision a double dip this year with only 4 picks, but if they pick up a few extra selections via trade down, then it could be a real possibility. The two positions I could see that most realistically happening at are DE and WR. In both cases, the Bears need another starter, which could prompt a high pick, and there’s also room for a later pick to push for a roster spot against pretty weak depth.

Once again, the Bears have already hinted at this possibility. Head coach Matt Eberflus was caught on mic telling Ryan Poles they should “take two of them” while watching defensive linemen work out at the Combine.

Defensive (over)investment

Another clear trend we see is that Poles loves to invest in defense early in the draft. Five of his seven day 1-2 picks have been spent on defenders, despite the Bears having just as many (if not more) offensive needs over the last two years. This trend has carried over to veteran signings as well, where the Bears have handed out significantly more money to the defense ($115M/year, $226M guaranteed) than offense ($58M/year, $89M guaranteed).

This is what happens when you double down on a defensive head coach who likes to run a simple scheme that requires high level players to work (rather than winning schematically), and I fully expect the trend to continue in 2024. Outside of QB, which is obviously going to be the #1 pick, Chicago has 2 clear holes in their current starting lineup: WR3 (currently Tyler Scott) and DE2 (currently DeMarcus Walker). I fully expect them to prioritize defensive end as being more important. Depending on how they view Gervon Dexter, they might also see 3-technique defensive tackle as a huge need as well.

Wrapping it up

In short, here are the four main lessons we have learned from Ryan Poles’ first two drafts:

• He only wants to draft plus athletes.
• He likes to trade down to accumulate more picks.
• He likes spending multiple picks on one need.
• He generally invests more in the defense than the offense.

The last three trends all seem to be aligning nicely, in my view. If Ryan Poles trades back from pick 9, he will be in range to invest a first round pick on a pass rusher (DEs like Jared Verse or Chop Robinson or DTs like Byron Murphy or Johnny Newton feel like possible targets), and then have extra picks he can spend to further bolster the pass rush later in the draft.

There is no saying for sure how the draft will unfold – I am sure the Bears’ ultimate action at 9 depends on what happens between picks 2 and 8 – but my read of Poles’ draft history, plus Chicago’s moves so far this offseason – makes me think that is his plan A.

He doesn’t really care about you, Mr. Meatball.

He doesn’t care about your voracious desire for big-ticket free agent acquisitions.

He doesn’t care about your “we want Fields” chants on a blustery Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field.

You wouldn’t pay a running back? He will.

You wouldn’t pay an off-ball linebacker? He’ll pay two.

You’re obsessed with the nonsense that has come to be called “good process.” He’s concerned with only one process: his.

Ryan Poles has a stubborn vision for how he intends to build the Chicago Bears into a contender and that stubbornness is why it feels like the Bears are finally in the right hands. It is a stubbornness that requires an ability sorely lacking since Jerry Angelo was unfairly chased out of town: self-awareness. When Poles interviewed for this job, he spent most his time with George McCaskey and Ted Phillips explaining all the deficiencies in the roster. He was not kind about his predecessor, and he did not sugarcoat what he believed was required to clean up the mess. In year one, he tore it all down. In year two, he began to reassemble. Many would argue that a general manager’s third year is when pressure to contend surfaces, but Poles knows that is not where the Chicago Bears currently sit in the NFL landscape, especially because they are about to take a quarterback with the first pick in the draft.

Would Christian Wilkins and Danielle Hunter have made the Bears better in 2024? Sure. But neither would make the Bears title contenders, and both would eat up sizable cap space in the future. Poles values flexibility. It’s a word he must have used 300 times in his post-season presser when discussing potential offensive coordinator hires. He’ll use this off-season to improve the roster and expect that improved roster to be playing January football this season. Then he’ll put the finishing touches on his rebuild next off-season, and expectations will rise.

In the meantime, the Bears will continue filling holes with cheaper veterans (Coleman Shelton at center) and hope those cheaper veterans become indispensable, requiring extensions (Andrew Billings). And they’ll wait and see if they can finally get correct the most important position in team sports: quarterback.

UPDATE: On Thursday evening, Ryan Poles executed the trade for Keenan Allen. 

Once again, prudence and patience won the day for Ryan Poles.

Having to part with only a mid-round pick, the Bears will now roster their best receiving duo since Marshall and Jeffery. DJ Moore and Keenan Allen will provide the incoming quarterback two of the most reliable outside targets in the sport, and arguably change the expectations level for the coming campaign.

Late last night, the Chicago Bears acquired Chargers all-star WR Keenan Allen for their 4th round pick (#110) in the 2024 NFL Draft. I’ve got some quick thoughts on the move:

• Turns out that hole in the Bears’ cap created from Jaylon Johnson & D’Andre Swift’s deals had a purpose
• Obviously this is a move focused on 2024, but I don’t mind the emphasis on next season. 2024 is a massive year for the entire Bears’ organization — in all likelihood, they’ll attempt to develop a rookie QB while competing for a playoff spot. If, therefore, the biggest critique of this move is that Chicago paid too much draft capital & 2024 salary dollars for an offensive leader that should spur the rookie’s development, I think we’ll all survive. Frankly, I think it’s refreshing to see the Bears over-address the young QB’s supporting cast for once.
• Regardless of which Quarterback ultimately starts for the Bears next year, Keenan Allen should be a stabilizing force in the Bears’ down-to-down passing offense. He specializes in option routes, short-yardage routes, and playing within structure — all of which Caleb Williams and Justin Fields struggle with, meaning Allen could provide a strong guiding hand.
  • If we’re splitting hairs, I think timing routes will likely remain an issue for Justin Fields whereas Caleb Williams’ college tape shows signs of inconsistency more than an outright inability to play within structure, but this isn’t a Caleb Williams breakdown. Regardless of starter, Keenan should help sharpen a short-passing blade that was quite dull throughout 2023.

My overall grade? I like it. The fun factor is ~10/10. I’ve also already assumed that Matt Eberflus begged Poles to let him draft a 1st round defender anyways, so if this move is Poles’ way of making sure Chicago has weapons for a key 2024 season? I dig it.

This does make me wonder what the Bears’ plan is at WR going forward, but we can cross that bridge later. I’d love to draft a 2nd or 3rd round WR to develop throughout the year (Keon Coleman, Roman Wilson, Ricky Pearsall, etc), but I don’t know that the Bears will prioritize that. Also, is Keenan getting extended past 2024? I could see it, but he’ll be 33 next season. We’ll have to wait and see.

For now… Chicago added a 6-time Pro Bowler that’s a god amongst chain-moving WRs. He pairs perfectly with DJ Moore’s ability to threaten all levels of the field as well — those two should be monsters in 12-personnel.

I’m excited to see how this plays out — what an exciting time to be a Bears fan! What will Poles do from here? We’re just going to have to wait and see,

Bonus: Breaking Down Keenan Allen’s Route Running

Below I threw in some of my favorite clips from a light film study last night — check it out and let me know what you think.

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There’s a new Chicago Bear in town! As yesterday evening wound down, Ryan Poles sent a 5th round pick to Buffalo to get IOL Ryan Bates, the same Ryan Bates that Poles tried to sign to an RFA tender just two offseasons ago.

https://twitter.com/BuffaloBills/status/1764837047926145227

Bates brings with him athleticism (check RAS below) and experience at all three interior positions, most recently working at Center. Does that mean he’s Chicago’s future starting Center? Or is he a depth handcuff for Teven Jenkins (health) and Nate Davis (health & poor play)? We’ll find out next year, but either way I think the move works.

Cost wise, a 5th round pick isn’t nothing… but it’s not worth making a meal over either. The Bears’ latest 5th round pick (Noah Sewell) played a grand total of 27 defensive snaps as a rookie last year, a reminder of how hard it is for late-round rookies to contribute on the field quickly.

Assuming that Bates is slated for either the OL’s premiere backup role or a starting position at Center, this move suggests to me that Ryan Poles has prioritized the upcoming 2024 season — given Bates’ cheap 2-year contract, I can get behind that. Regardless of whether the front office rolls with the incumbent Justin Fields or a newly-drafted rookie QB, Chicago has lost the privilege of betting the health of their line’s interior on an inconsistent right-guard, an oft-injured left guard, and what is currently a gaping hole in the line’s center.

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