The offseason is winding down as we are now firmly in training camp and shifting into preseason mode, but before the real games start I want to sneak one last series examining part of the roster to give us a better sense of what to expect in the 2024 season.

I’ve spent quite a bit of time looking at the offense in the last few months, as we’ve learned together about new OC Shane Waldron, the WRs, the TEs, and expectations for rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. However, I’ve completely ignored the offensive line, and want to spend a little time this week focusing on the big boys up front who will be tasked with protecting the quarterback and opening lanes in the run game.

We’ll start today with the interior, and look at tackles tomorrow.

Guards

Pass Protection

Let’s start with guards, and then begin by examining pass protection, which is the most important part of an offensive lineman’s job. There were 62 guards (1.9/team) who had at least 300 pass blocking snaps in 2023, which is roughly starters. Chicago had three players in this sample: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, and Cody Whitehair. The table below shows how they help up protecting the passer compared their peers around the NFL. A few quick notes:

• All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
• True pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush and make the OL’s job easier, such as screens, play action, and rollout.
• Pass blocking efficiency measures overall pressure allowed, but weights sacks more heavily than other pressures. A higher number is better.
• In a 62 player sample, 31st would be the middle rank, while cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25% (top 16) and red indicates the bottom 25% (47th or worse).
• Ryan Bates is also included, since he will be competing for a starting spot this year.
  • He didn’t play much in 2023, so his data is from 2022, and thus doesn’t have any ranks indicated.
  • The Bears plan to have him compete at center, but he’s only played 203 career snaps at C spread across 4 seasons, so that’s not much to go on. He played 821 snaps at guard in 2022, the only season where he’s had starting snaps, so that’s what we’ll evaluate.

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NOTE: Robert and I intended to start doing our weekly Spaces sessions on Twitter a few weeks back, but I have been battling one of the worst bronchial infections of my life. I’m finally returning to normal existence, and we’ll be live this Saturday (3/23) at 1 PM ET. A lot to talk about. 

Thoughts on what has transpired in the early days of free agency, starting in Chicago.

• Do I believe Ryan Poles had second or third-round offers on the table for Justin Fields? No, I do not. If you have followed my commentary on the Fields trade market, you know that I’ve been consistent in my reporting: there has been no Fields market. If a second-round pick had been on the table, Poles would have absolutely jumped at the opportunity. This revisionist take on the market, created by the Fields camp, is an attempt to save face, to pretend his journey to Pittsburgh was self-directed. Atlanta didn’t want him. Sean Payton doesn’t think he’s very good. Minnesota preferred Sam Darnold. As we close the book on the Justin Fields era in Chicago, it’s time to be honest. He was an underwhelming performer and the league recognized that.
• The Keenan Allen acquisition should have no influence on Poles’ draft strategy. Allen is going to be 32 years old this season. And while he is coming off his best year, the Bears can’t expect more than 2-3 seasons from him at a top-line performer. If these three wide receiving prospects – Harrison, Nabers, Odunze – are as good as many believe, the Bears shouldn’t hesitate to stand pat at number nine and bring one of them to Chicago. Always. Be. Adding. Weapons.
• The center position is still intriguing as we look ahead to 2024. Ryan Bates is a $4 million player. That’s not backup money, especially on the interior of the offensive line. It’ll be surprising if Bates is not one of the five starting linemen in September, and I think that position is going to be center.

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The “legal tampering” period begins Monday, and a lot is set to change around the NFL. Here are my thoughts on everything.

First, the Bears.

• Buffalo did not want to lose Ryan Bates, but his cap number would not be sustainable for 2024. Said one Bills executive to me, “You got a good one.” Ryan Poles wanted Bates to anchor his offensive line at center two years ago, and that still could be the strategy.
  • The Bills salary purges on Wednesday were devastating in their building. Some aging veterans, sure, but a lot of leadership left that organization.
• Don’t fret about Jaylon Johnson. The Bears will get a long-term deal done. Johnson isn’t going anywhere.
• There were Justin Fields-to-Atlanta rumors when the Falcons were running Arthur Smith’s offense. Those rumors continued, even as the Falcons switched to Zac Robinson’s offense. In what world does Fields fit both of these offenses, especially the latter? Is this hypothetical trade based entirely on geography?
  • Most of the top-level NFL scoopmeisters believe Kirk Cousins will be the next QB of the Falcons. If that’s the case, that would further limit potential trade destinations for Fields.
• I’ve heard some of the names on the edge linked to the Bears. I’ll continue to pound the drum for the best pure pass rusher on the market, Bryce Huff. (I would argue the 9th pick should be used on whichever position the Bears don’t fully address in FA, edge rusher or wide receiver.)
• I’ve been wondering if the Bears would be in the market for a backup quarterback but folks I trust believe the Bears trust Tyson Bagent in that role, even with a rookie quarterback.

Around the League…

• The specter of Bill Belichick is now haunting Brian Daboll in New Jersey.
• Rumors have Saquon Barkley as a primary target for DeMeco Ryan and the Texans. As someone who fantasy owned their entire backfield a season ago, it is a giant hole in their roster. If Barkley stayed healthy in Houston, he’d have All Pro potential.
  • There are also rumors of Barkley to Chicago, and I think he’d have even greater potential here.

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The latest episode of Bear With Us is out — give it a listen below!

In it, we talk through:

• Thoughts on Ryan Poles trading for Ryan Bates
• What does Jaylon Johnson’s franchise tag mean for his long-term extension?
• More discussion surrounding what to do at Pick #9 (or #5, as recent mocks have suggested)
• Nick’s list of potential Free Agents that tick all his Bears boxes
• And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: What moves do you want to see made in the upcoming Free Agency window?

The #Bills will match the RFA offer sheet for OT Ryan Bates, per GM Brandon Beane. It’s a 4-year deal for Bates.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 28, 2022

(1) Does Ryan Poles want to spend big money for a premier tackle? Terron Armstead will be 31 this season but has had trouble playing a complete season. His price will be north of $20 million per season. When he is healthy, he is worth every nickel. But does Poles want to absorb that risk financially?

(2) Where do Poles and this coaching staff expect Teven Jenkins to play in 2022? Do they want him at left tackle for another season? Do they want to move him to the right side? Jenkins is going to be one of the five starting linemen, but we honestly don’t know what position he’ll be playing. (My guess is they haven’t reached that conclusion yet and may not until they see how the rest of free agency and the draft shake out.)

(3) Can Ian Cunningham coerce Ryan Bates to Chicago? Bates is 25 and the folks in Buffalo absolutely adore him. But the Bills are cash-strapped and would unlikely be able to match a generous offer sheet. Minnesota is interested. New England is interested. But the Bears have Cunningham, the man responsible for bringing Bates to Philadelphia as an undrafted free agent. Is that relationship strong enough to make a difference now? (Bates can play anywhere on the line.)

(4) Two things I was told about the offensive line when Ryan Poles was hired were: (a) James Daniels was not going to be re-signed and (b) the opinion of Larry Borom was not particularly high. But this was before Poles and Flus engaged a thorough evaluation of the entire roster. Has that opinion changed at all? Do they view Borom as a potential starter? Versatile backup? Anything?