Week Four Game Preview, Volume I: “Same Old Song” Heads to New Jersey

Jeff Hughes | September 29th, 2022

They are coming off one of the least rewarding wins in recent memory. So…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Video of the Week

The Passer Rating Problem

If you were to list the six men playing quarterback at the highest level through three games, who would you list? Jalen Hurts. Tua. Josh Allen. Lamar Jackson. Mahomes. Probably Trevor Lawrence?

Well, those six men currently lead the NFL in passer rating. Passer rating is not a flawless stat by any means. Quarterbacks should not be penalized for throwing the football away or for interceptions off the hands of their receivers. And quarterbacks should be rewarded statistically for avoiding negative plays and extending drives with their legs. But nevertheless, the passer rating stat is still our finest tool for measuring consistency at the position. All six of those players have a rating north of 100, and you don’t fluke your way into that number.

Justin Fields’ passer rating is 50. That ranks him 33rd in the league. And yes, there are only 32 starting quarterbacks.

The gap between Fields and Mac Jones in 31st (Trey Lance is 32nd) is 26.2 points.

That’s the gap between Jones and the top six, with Lawrence at 103.1.

This means that, according to the passer rating statistic, Fields is as far being the 31st ranked quarterback as Jones – who has been terrible – is from being a borderline Pro Bowler.

The Giants, who have a terrible secondary, have played three quarterbacks. Their passer ratings against:

Ryan Tannehill: 106.4
Baker Mayfield: 74.6
Cooper Rush: 98.2

Fields needs a clean game. No turnovers. High completion percentage. A few big plays. Nobody should be asking for (or looking for) more than that at this stage. If Fields can pitch to a QB rating around 90, there will at least be SOME reason for optimism moving forward in 2022.

WHY ELSE?

Jets may field their worst collection of corners in recent memory. Antonio Allen vs. Alshon Jeffery? Self-proclaimed great corner but actually terrible player Dee Milliner vs. Brandon Marshall? Hell, Darrin Walls or Kyle Wilson will struggle with a motivated Santonio Holmes. (Not to mention Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte will be a nightmare for the Jets in the passing game.) Once the Packers realized the Jets had no chance to cover their wide receivers they went on the attack and were borderline unstoppable. If I’m the Bears my approach from the onset is getting the ball in the hands of the weapons on the outside and forcing the Jets corners to make plays.
Jets will approach this game by believing they can run the football right up the gut of the Bears defense – especially if Jeremiah Ratliff is inactive with a concussion – and they’ll give that game plan ample time. Chris Johnson was their high profile acquisition this off-season but Chris Ivory has been the far more productive back and I expect them to test Jon Bostic’s gap discipline all night long. Bears had a few breaks Sunday night, causing their run defense to look better than it actually was.
Rex Ryan is considered by many to be the most dynamic blitz schemer in the NFL and I don’t have the time or wherewithal to dispute that opinion. You know they’re coming. And you know they’re coming from every direction. But when Ryan blitzes he often either (a) leaves his corners on an island or (b) puts his safeties (Dawan Landry, Calvin Pryor) in the uncomfortable position of either defending over the top or covering tight ends they have business being matched up against. When Ryan’s group doesn’t hit Cutler, Cutler will rip them to shreds.