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Ranting about Montez Sweat & Bears Defensive Failures

| November 1st, 2023

Last night I went on a 5-hour Halloween Candy-fueled ranting session talking about:

  • Why I like the Montez Sweat trade
  • How Sweat affects & changes the structure of the Bears’ defense
  • Why the reality of Chase Young probably wasn’t the silver bullet that the idealized version of Chase Young has been made out to be
  • How Justin Herbert picked apart the Bears’ defense & what that means for Matt Eberflus
  • And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: How are you feeling about the Montez Sweat trade?

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Trade Deadline Open Thread

| October 31st, 2023


Trick or Treat, it’s Trade Deadline day! If you went to sleep early last night, you probably missed the first piece of Bears deadline candy — Jaylon Johnson wants out of Chicago, and Ryan Poles has given the young corner permission to find a deal.

Jaylon could command quite a market for himself, so expect names like Dallas, Buffalo, and San Francisco to be involved in the hunt for his services. If the Bears get lucky, maybe they reap the rewards of a bidding war.

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One Door Closes, Another Door Opens

| October 30th, 2023


As the final whistle blew on Sunday Night, the Chicago Bears fell to a 2-6 record in 2023. If the season wasn’t already lost, it’s assuredly lost now.

Matt Eberflus can take pride in knowing that this game was (probably) his fastest defeat yet — it only took 20 football minutes for ESPN’s Win Probability metric to assign Los Angeles a 95+% chance to win the game, and unfortunately the actual play on the field only served to reinforce the sense of dread that has become normalized within the Eberflus era.

The Chargers could move the ball at will. Tyson Bagent threw an early interception. Once the Bears’ offense finally found the endzone, Los Angeles scored another touchdown to immediately answer what little offense the Bears could muster. With a halftime score of 7-24, you knew that the game was already over… but as the team stumbled and fell for the 20th time in Matt Eberflus’ first 25 games, one silver lining appeared:

There are no more excuses for Matt Eberflus or his staff to hide behind, and the Bears’ front office knows it. The expression on Kevin Warren’s face last night says it all.

https://twitter.com/_MarcusD3_/status/1718819985055744474

While nothing’s more normal than a Bears-focused blogger writing a post about the shortcomings of Chicago’s coaches, last night’s game stood out to me for several reasons:

  1. Matt Eberflus had the opportunity to show that without Justin Fields in the lineup, his vision of a ball-control offense could contend with the NFL’s best teams. Instead, Chicago averaged just 2.9 Yards per Carry and the offense failed to score until the game was nearly out of reach.
  2. Matt Eberflus had the opportunity to show that his defense can slow down & stop one of the NFL’s best young QB talents. Instead, his defense allowed 15 straight completions to open the game, 6.6 yards/play on the Chargers’ first 5 drives, and as easy a 298-yard day through the air as I’ve seen from Chicago’s opponents this season. The defense could barely even compete.
  3. Matt Eberflus had the opportunity to show that his hard coaching style could result in focused, high-yield play in big games. Instead, the Bears took silly penalties early & often (Patrick’s Hands To The Face, Velus’s Fair Catch Interference) and failed to tackle consistently.

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Previewing Bagent’s Primetime Matchup With the LA Chargers

| October 26th, 2023

Once again, Chicago Bears UDFA QB Tyson Bagent enters the weekend set & ready to start the latest ‘biggest game of his life’.

Last weekend he handled business against a Brian Hoyer-led Raiders team on his homefield at noon. A huge win, and a rare achievement among the UDFA QBs throughout NFL history.

As a reward, he’ll now face the one and only Justin Herbert in primetime on Sunday Night Football with what remains of the Bears season hanging in the balance. If that wasn’t enough pressure on its own, the game is also on the road.

It’s a massive moment for the rookie QB. Frankly, it’s a massive moment for the entire Bears coaching staff, as you know Matt Eberflus would do nearly anything to start the first win streak of his Chicago tenure start on a night where the entire nation will be watching.

This game feels dramatic — the stage is set. I’m leaning into the moment and I hope you do too.

But once the game kicks off, which matchups are going to dictate the flow of the game? What advantages can Chicago exploit within a depleted Chargers roster? In the latest episode of Bear With Us, Nick and I talk through all of this and much much more. Check it out and let me know what you think!

Free Sample

Within the podcast, Nick and I picked out the 2 matchups on Offense & Defense that we each think are going to drive this game. I’ll let you search out our explanations within the podcast itself, but here are the matchups each of us chose:

Nick’s Key Matchups:

  • Offense: Marcedes Lewis’ Chip Blocks vs Khalil Mack
  • Offense: Cody Whitehair & Lucas Patrick vs LAC’s Lackluster DTs
  • Defense: TJ Edwards vs Austin Eckler
  • Defense: Andrew Billings vs a weak LAC Interior OL

My Key Matchups:

  • Offense: Tyson Bagent vs ‘The Moment’ (How will he respond when the Chargers inevitably force him to adjust?)
  • Offense: DJ Moore vs Asante Samuel
  • Defense: Tyrique Stevenson vs Keenan Allen
  • Defense: Justin Herbert attacking Zone vs Tremaine Edmunds

Bonus:

You may have ‘felt’ this on Sunday, but Tyson Bagent’s dropback speed holds up to the stopwatch — compared to Justin Fields, Bagent currently saves about a half-second on 5-step & 7-step dropbacks through crisp footwork. That extra half-second seems to help Bagent stay alive in the pocket & distribute the ball quickly, which resulted in the Bears’ OL giving up their lowest QB hit total of the year (3 QB hits compared to Fields’ average of 8 QB hits per game).

I’m really happy with how the video accompaniment came out — check it out if you’ve got ~52 seconds. You may be surprised at how stark the difference is.

Your Turn: How are you feeling about Sunday Night’s Game?

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Honest review of Tyson Bagent’s Raiders Game

| October 24th, 2023

In Short: He was very, very good for a UDFA rookie.

The theme of Tyson’s day was avoiding negative plays — sure, he made some big plays for his team (Scott 3rd & 5 early, the 2nd & 11 scramble, etc) and he kept the offense on-schedule, but you’re telling me a rookie QB with one week’s prep was responsible for only one negative play in 33 drop-backs? Get outta here!

Between Bagent & Luke Getsy’s rushing attack (which was surprisingly diverse), Chicago basically never stopped moving the ball forward. They didn’t generate many chunk plays (we’ll get there later), but they didn’t need to — Bagent was comfortable hitting 6 yard flat routes, checking the ball down in-rhythm, sneaking it on 3rd & short, and ‘canning’ (audibling) into rushing plays he liked when he saw fronts that matched up well for the Bears.

None of this is amazing in an NFL QB vacuum, but we’re not talking about a 5-year starter — Bagent’s a rookie! For him to play as consistently as he did without feeling the need to force the ball into unsafe windows was impressive in and of itself. Just take a look at Bryce Young — often, it’s a rookie’s eagerness to make a play that can undo them.

Most importantly, Bagent turned a few potential disaster plays (the checkdown to Blasingame, the play with a defender draped around his ankles, plus a batted ball early & another checkdown along the sidelines) into neutral plays or small positive gains for his team — his release is lightning fast and he commonly throws without his base anyways, so Bagent had no trouble whipping an accurate ball to a teammate when things got dangerous.

Again, across 33 drop-backs, the Raiders didn’t just end up with one sack… they only registered 3 QB hits in a game where Bagent’s RT might as well have been playing with one arm. And even when the Raiders pressured Bagent, he found ways to get the ball out of his hands. That’s a legit skill, and it’s the kind of skill that can keep your team’s chains moving on a day like last Sunday.

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The Biggest Moment of Tyson Bagent’s Life Wasn’t Too Big For Him

| October 23rd, 2023


The buzz around UDFA QB Tyson Bagent in the week leading up to the Raiders-Bears game was electric.

Both the Chicago and NFL media world seemed ready to explode if Bagent was even modestly successful — Bagent had already captured Chicago’s eye during the preseason, but when you factor in his underdog background (former Division 2 QB at Shepherd University), his hilarious armwrestling father, and the potential impact he could have on a 1-5 team that needed a spark against a beatable opponent, it’s no surprise that Tyson quickly became one of the easiest players to root for in football.

But a great story is often just that — a story. The NFL builds up underdogs every year only to see them fall at the hands of Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Kyle Shannahan, and the rigors of the NFL. It wasn’t long ago that Patriots QB Mac Jones was benched for 4th round QB Bailey Zappe in a 2022 game that Bears fans will never forget, but what most won’t remember about the rest of that game was Bailey Zappe’s three turnovers (two interceptions, one fumble lost) and an overall performance that pushed New England right back to Jones the next week. The NFL’s best storybook tales often end in defeat.

But that couldn’t be further from what happened on Sunday. Instead, Bagent beat the odds once more and played a mistake-free football game (which is remarkable for a rookie, by the way) behind a creative Bears rushing attack that simply needed him to stay on-schedule through the air, convert the occasional 3rd down, and let D’Onta Foreman and a ramshackle Chicago offensive line slowly take over the game. And as 173 yards on the ground, a 4.6 yards-per-carry figure, and 2 touchdowns suggest, that’s exactly what this running game did.

As the offense marched up and down the field, Bagent’s ability to avoid negative plays really stood out to me — the 2023 Chicago Bears’ offense has been defined at times by drive-killing negative plays (sacks, turnovers, defensive touchdowns against), but in 30 dropbacks against the Raiders the only sack that Bagent allowed came with 9 seconds left in the first half. Throughout the rest of the game, Bagent navigated pocket pressure cleanly, distributed the ball to checkdowns/outlets, and allowed teammates like Khari Blasingame to prove their NFL worth by fielding Bagent’s outlet passes and churning out 4-6 yards after the catch.

On nearly every play, the ball moved a little further down the field. The ball never fell into the opposition’s hands. And, despite three false starts and three holding penalties, the Bears churned out 23 1st downs within a balanced offense and scored 24 points in the process. Bagent wasn’t the star, but was instead the leader of an 11-man unit — on Sunday, that unit was more than good enough to churn out offense and put up points.

I’d say that’s about as good as you can ask of a UDFA rookie QB in his first start.

There may be another day for hand-wringing over whether or not Bagent can repeat this start against better defenses, how long Bagent can succeed without attempting a throw further than 15 yards downfield (chart pictured below), or what this means for the future of the Chicago Bears’ QB position, but that day is not today.

Today, focus on how Tyson Bagent out-dueled a 15-year NFL Veteran in what was no-doubt the biggest game of his life — Sunday’s moment wasn’t too big for him, and with 65 friends & family members cheering him on in the stands (along with thousands of other fans), Bagent delivered on offense for 4 quarters in the first home win of the Bears season. If you ask me, that rules.

We’ll do Good, Bad, and Ugly later in the week. I’ll Check the Tape and get back to you.

Postgame Podcast:

Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through the ups, the downs, the ins, and the outs of Chicago’s big win here:

Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?

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For Better (& For Worse), It’s Tyson’s Turn

| October 19th, 2023

There’s nobody more popular in Chicago, Illinois than the Chicago Bears’ backup QB, and he’s about to play the biggest game of his life.

This weekend, the Chicago Bears take on a Las Vegas Raiders team that’s best described as an NFL benchmark:

  • They have exactly one (and only one!) superstar on each side of the ball in WR Davante Adams and EDGE rusher Maxx Crosby
  • They have a good-but-not-great OL
  • They have a journeyman veteran starting QB that, due to injury, is likely being replaced by a journeyman veteran backup QB
  • They have a solid core of DBs that can run multiple coverages (even if they can’t always run them well)
  • They have a DL that, aside from Crosby, leaves quite a lot to be desired
  • And they have a Head Coach in Josh McDaniels whose in-game management leads to bizarre decisions that consistently keep scores closer than they should be

This Raiders team isn’t BAD, but they certainly aren’t good either — you can’t help feel like their offense should be higher-powered given a dynamic skill core of WRs Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow as well as RB Josh Jacobs, but you can’t argue with successfully squeaking out games against the Broncos, Packers, and Patriots.

Those wins may not seem impressive, but Chicago’s 2023 Bears are living proof that wins against those opponents aren’t guaranteed. There’s a difference between being “The Bad Team That Loses To Other Bad Teams” and whatever the Raiders are — the gap between the two teams may not be wide, but so far the Raiders have consistently turned out wins where the Bears have found only losses.

On Sunday, Tyson Bagent hopes to change that.

In the latest episode of Bear With Us, Nick and I talk through the current state of the Chicago Bears, the players that impressed/disappointed us last Sunday, a preview of this weekend’s dance with Las Vegas, and much much more. Check it out and let me know what you think!

Bonus: Tiny Bagent Film Study

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Checking the Tape: Bears vs Vikings

| October 18th, 2023

Watching the Bears’ tape is a mess — nothing meshes together. What Getsy wants to do isn’t what Fields wants to do, and the Bears can’t do anything that Fields wants to do well against blitzing teams.

You can tell Getsy’s answers to Minnesota’s blitzes were quick throws out wide, but Fields couldn’t execute some of them and Whitehair’s snaps ruined others.

Then, the Bears pivoted towards more max protect. Fields looked more comfortable, but the OL couldn’t ID blitzes properly and gave away bad matchups (like Foreman on Hunter/Foreman on a blitzer with runway) leading to more pressure, no throws downfield, and the QB taking more hits.

Some of the above is still on Getsy, because plenty of routes too WAY too long to resolve against the blitz — Mooney jukes the air in the red zone, Trent Taylor runs the longest whip route in existence, etc. Of course, neither is open in time to beat the pressure (and one leads to the INT).

It’s easy to make this out to be a QB-only problem, but it’s the same problem we’ve seen all season — when the Bears’ initial plan doesn’t work, Getsy and Fields’ philosophical disagreements result in awful football that can’t even compete with opposing defenses.

Of course, this magnifies every mistake that the OL makes — if CHI doesn’t get the exact look they want and perfect protection up front, the play might as well be over. It doesn’t feel like there’s much chemistry between the QB and his outlets when things go haywire.

But if all the above wasn’t bad enough, sometimes the Bears do get the exact look they want with perfect protection up front, like the play shown below (Yes, it’s the tweet that includes this very thread):

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Someone’s Era Is Over In Chicago, But Whose?

| October 16th, 2023

Having been a Bears fan for over a decade, I’ve seen Sunday’s game more times than I’d like to admit.

Chicago was given a myriad of circumstantial advantages heading into the weekend’s tilt against a listing 1-4 Minnesota Vikings team. These advantages included (but were not limited to):

  • A ‘Mini-Bye’ that afforded Chicago extra time to rest, scout, and prep for this game
  • A surprise Wednesday announcement that Vikings’ superstar Justin Jefferson would be placed on IR, undoubtedly causing the Minnesota to scramble while planning their offense
  • Plenty of tape on how the Vikings would handle Justin Fields defensively (thanks to Jalen Hurts providing a close comparison)
  • A parade of returning Chicago starters (Kyler Gordon, Jaylon Johnson, Teven Jenkins, and Eddie Jackson) that looked to boost both sides of the ball
  • All of the intrinsic momentum that winning your first game of the season provides

And yet, despite these advantages, Chicago lost the game and fell to 1-5 on the season. That may be the death knell for any playoff hopes the organization still had.

It’s a damn shame they managed to lose too. The Bears’ defense held the Vikings’ offense to 220 total yards and 12 offensive points, yet Chicago allowed its 4th defensive touchdown in 6 weeks and lost 19-13 all the same. The 2023 Bears always make one mistake too many — that’s a direct indictment on their coaching, if you ask me.

There are conversations to be had about Fields’ eyes against Brian Flores’ blitzes, how strange it was to see the Bears abandon the run while it was hot, Tyson Bagent’s overall performance & more, but now that Chicago’s starting Quarterback is likely to miss time with a dislocated thumb, the story of the season may change in a flash — next the Bears host a “Bad, But Not That Bad” Las Vegas Raiders team in a game that would’ve been winnable with Fields but has now become a battle of backup QBs.

If this team falls to 1-6, what keeps them competing?

What do Matt Eberflus’ season goals become?

Does a total reset of the organization become inevitable?

We’ll cross some of those bridges when we get to them, but I can’t help feeling like an era ended on Sunday. I’m just not sure whose era it was.


The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly


The Good:

  • Everyone on Defense chipped in. The 2023 Bears defense has received plenty of grief on this site this year, but with the season in the balance they played as good a game as you could ask yesterday. Jaylon Johnson broke up passes, Tyrique Stevenson stopped Jordan Addison on a key 3rd & long, Zacch Pickens added a TFL, and TJ Edwards powered past Alexander Mattison to get home on a blitz & tip a Kirk Cousins pass in the air & create a huge interception that Tremaine Edmunds was ready for.
    • It wasn’t the Vikings offense’s best game (I’m still not sure why they were so averse to spreading out their WRs and passing relentlessly), but that’s not important — the defense did what they had to do on Sunday by shutting out Minnesota in the 2nd half and offering their offense 6 opportunities to take the ball and score. Plenty of good from that unit.

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