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Monday Morning Draft Grades — Reviewing Day 1’s Haul In-Depth

| April 29th, 2024

Quick Disclaimer: I hate Draft Grades.

These flimsy ‘grades’ are built far too quickly and rely entirely on the grader’s (my) priors, ultimately boiling down to questions like these:

  • Did I like the players Ryan Poles drafted before we entered draft week?
  • Do I agree with Poles’ teambuilding philosophy or do I want to hold it against him?
  • Do I think Poles ‘over-drafted’ any of the players he selected? Or did he ‘steal’ a few of his players instead?

These questions leave far too much room for subjectivity and ask the grader to make too many judgement calls, often resulting in guesses and good vibes that include some context while leaving out others. Take for instance the grades handed out to Ryan Pace’s 2019 Draft, arguably the worst Bears draft in recent memory — would it surprise you that a draft without a 1st or 2nd round pick still received multiple ‘A’s and quite a few ‘B’s? What does any of that mean?

Maybe it’s my engineering background, but I want to measure Ryan Poles’ latest draft against something a bit more firm — I want to assess the ‘value’ he got out of the 2024 draft, and I believe that requires a new set of questions to measure Poles against:

  • Do Ryan Poles’ 2024 selections make sense within the Bears’ current contention timeframe?
  • Which positions did Ryan Poles target? How difficult is replacing/upgrading each selection’s position outside of the draft?
  • Does each chosen player fill a role within Chicago’s big picture? If so, how important is that role?
  • How much success does each chosen player need to achieve to justify their selection?
  • Finally, what do I think of the player?

With our criteria set, I think we can properly assess Poles’ 2024 Draft Class. Let’s dive right in with…

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210 Comments

Dare We Dream Of Rome (Odunze)?

| April 24th, 2024

Let me be honest with you — I haven’t allowed myself to think about Ryan Poles drafting any of the ‘Big 3’ Wide Receivers (Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze) for two reasons:

  1. It’s seemed more and more likely over time that all three of those WRs will be drafted by #8 (with Atlanta trading out of their pick and allowing a WR-needy team to jump Chicago)
  2. If one of those WRs did fall to 9, it’s seemed like an obvious Ryan Poles move to subsequently dangle that 3rd WR as a trade chip for the WR-needy team described in Atlanta’s deal above, giving Ryan Poles a few more picks in the 2024 draft.

This logic made sense to me for a long time. But a few things happened yesterday that have me wondering if Ryan Poles has an explosive move planned for mid-Thursday night.

First off, when asked about whether Ryan Poles felt any need to add picks in this draft he had this to say:

Is that gamesmanship? Could be, but Ryan Poles has a habit of being unusually honest with the media in open sessions. I’ll never forget standing at Poles’ presser at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine where he all but told the media that he wanted to trade #1 overall before the start of Free Agency. Within days, the pick had been dealt.

But Poles (potentially) sticking at #9 doesn’t automatically signal interest in Odunze being the pick. The Bears could easily stick at #9 and take any of the popular pass-rushers on the board — names like Byron Murphy, Jared Verse, Dallas Turner come to mind.

But search presumed #1 Overall Pick Caleb Williams’ social media, and you’ll find a budding relationship blooming with he and Rome Odunze — is this a smoke screen? Or a smoke signal? You tell me.

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If You Haven’t Yet, It’s Time To Watch Draft Day

| April 23rd, 2024

Kevin Costner’s ‘Draft Day’ is the best bad football movie available. The movie barely understands its own subject matter, botching everything from draft value to basic football terminology to travel times from New York City to Cleveland, but it’s the only draft-related movie we have and that makes it awesome by default.

I make it a point to watch Draft Day once a year right around now. This year, feel free to join me.

Your Turn: Have you ever seen ‘Draft Day’? What do you think of the film?

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316 Comments

Eat Your Vegetables, Draft Jared Verse

| April 22nd, 2024

Florida State EDGE rusher Jared Verse is as safe as safe picks get — he’s strong as an ox, plays the run & pass effectively, and at 23 years old he likely doesn’t have much untapped potential left in his game. What you see is what you get.

The numbers back up Verse’s on-field production — between Verse, Dallas Turner, and Laiatu Latu, Verse posted the clear best Run Stop Rate while still posting a Pass Rush Win Rate in-line with the best names in the draft. With Verse, versatility is the name of the game.

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Catching Up On The Weekend’s Audio

| April 8th, 2024

Last Friday saw the latest Bear With Us launch, covering Caleb Williams and the #9 overall pick…

And then over the weekend, Jeff and I caught up on what he’s hearing about #9 overall (plus a full mock of the craziness that may lead up to Chicago’s pick.

More Nine at #9 tomorrow.

Your Turn: Does the draft still feel far away? Or does it finally feel around the corner?

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427 Comments

Tomorrow: DBB Spaces, 9th Pick Edition, at 1 PM ET.

| April 5th, 2024


Tomorrow, Robert and I will be hosting a DBB Spaces on Twitter at 1 PM ET. This will be an episode dedicated entirely to the ninth pick in the draft. How will it work?

  • The first few minutes of the episode will be Robert and I mock drafting the first eight picks.
  • We will then make our arguments for what the Bears both WILL DO and SHOULD DO with their options at nine.
  • We will then open up the lines for any and all fans to present their preferences for Ryan Poles. All trades and choices will be given a platform. Polite arguments will subsequently commence.

The plan is for this episode to last two hours. We want your voices to be heard. It should be a lot of fun.

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