Saturday 3:35 PM CT – Rams @ Packers

Aaron Rodgers to score a touchdown: +550

_____

There’s logic here.

The Packers are going to move the ball. They’re going to get the ball into the red zone. And then they’ll have two major issues when it comes to scoring: Aaron Donald disrupting the run game and Jalen Ramsey taking Davante Adams away. Rodgers’ improvisational skills will be on full display when he takes the ball over the goal line.

Saturday 7:15 PM CT – Ravens @ Bills

Total points even: +106

_____

Five of the the last eight Bills games have ended in even points. So if you’re getting plus odds on that bet, you have to take it. This game was looking like a low-scorer when the forecast called for a snow storm at kickoff but now that forecast has changed and it’s just going to be a typical, cold, blustery Buffalo evening.

Read More …

Tommy Gilligan – USA TODAY Sports

Listen, it was an ugly affair at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. The Ravens offense isn’t capable of playing a pretty game. The Bears coaching staff had no interest in one. Thus you get a game like that. Thoughts…

• Bears ran the ball 54 times, with 50 called runs. I won’t reiterate what Data wrote well post-game regarding the predictability of their rushing attack. I will just say this: the Bears have to stop coaching like Mike Glennon is under center. Their offense seems to be a combination of 1943 and gimmicks. Take the cuffs off Trubisky and let him play football.
• Someone told you the punt game would play a pivotal role in this game. Who was that again?
• Jordan Howard, prior to his 53-yard run in OT, was averaging just 3.25 yards per carry. Completely a product of play-calling. Running on obvious running downs and throwing on obvious passing downs won’t beat a team with a competent offense.
• Kendall Wright is the Bears best receiver. Why can’t the coaching staff see that?
• Trubisky’s big mistakes in his first start were trying to do too much when the play broke down. Love that he showed growth in his second start and didn’t hesitate to fling it out of bounds.
• Also loved Trubisky’s slide technique. Don’t take hits you don’t have to, kid. Just look around the league. Quarterbacks are falling Antietam. (Too soon?)
• Down around the goal line, Loggains has to let Trubisky’s legs be a weapon. These quick, one-read calls have to go.
• Adrian Amos played his best game as a Bear but my game ball would go to Kyle Fuller. The former first-round pick looked like a complete, shut down corner. Why did Flacco keep throwing at him?
• Good to see Pernell McPhee flying around. Looked like a different player from the guy on Monday night’s tape.
• Akiem Hicks has the same number of sacks as Von Miller. He has more than Khalil Mack and Geno Atkins. It’s early in the season but Hicks is starting to put himself in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year. That’s how good he’s been.

Read More …

Three. And. Oh. Much needed.

Ravens Under 17 pts vs. Chiefs

Chiefs are a good defensive team. And here is an amazing excerpt from an ESPN piece about the Baltimore Ravens:

Quarterback Jimmy Clausen didn’t get the win Sunday. He didn’t lead a touchdown drive.

But he did enough in the 35-6 loss to the Seattle Seahawks to earn a second start with the Baltimore Ravens.

If James Clausen beats you, you get beat.

Bears +5.5 at Vikings

Bears margins of victory/defeat since Jay Cutler returned from injury: 2, 1, 3, 3, 3, 24, 2, 6, 3. Is there really any reason to believe this game won’t come down to the final few moments and be decided by a field goal or so? Taking the points with the Bears seems the astute move.

Lions & Saints Over 50.5 pts

Lions v. Rams hit 35 points on Sunday. And the Rams have a terrific defense and putrid offense. The Saints, by comparison, have a potentially prolific offense and putrid defense. And both teams have nothing to play for so this could be one of those, “What the hell, let’s go for it on all the fourth downs!” games.

Season Record: 23-17-2