Mark and James, both in their early 70s, sit in the same barstools they’ve occupied on football Sundays for thirty plus years. In this bar they talk to no one but each other and the bartender, a lanky fella that knows when one Miller High Life is empty, another should take its place. 

Mark: Did it matter?

James: Did what matter?

Mark: What happened there, did it matter?

James: Everything matters.

Mark: Sure, everything matters, in the existential sense, everything matters, but does everything really matter?

James: I guess that’s a question of perspective, isn’t it?

Mark: Is it?

James: I think so.

Mark: Explain.

James: A man walks into a dark alleyway in the middle of the night. He sees a figure lurking in the shadows behind him.

Mark: Eerie.

James: Right?

Mark: Go on.

James. Thank you. (Beat) He sees this figure and knows he has no choice but physical altercation. This figure is set on menace, and diplomacy won’t dissolve the situation.

Mark: He has to fight the figure.

James: He does.

Mark: Does he?

James: He does!

Mark: Okay.

James: The figure emerges.

Mark: I’m frightened.

James: Fuck off.

Mark: Go on.

James. Thank you. (Beat) The figure emerges and it’s a drunken bum. Down on his luck, stinky hobo, hoping to rip this guy off for a few bucks so he can get a 40 of Old English from the corner. Man gives him a shove. Bum falls down. Situation handled.

Mark: Not very impressive.

James. No, it’s not.

Read More …

• The Bears just played a terrible Cardinals defense and scored nine points. Do we expect them to be significantly better simply by playing at home? Is DJ Moore going to suddenly start caring more?
• Pats are among the league’s worst pass rushing units, registering only 16 sacks thus far. Again, does that matter right now? It seems unlikely this OL can hold up for four quarters against anyone.
• The secret stat behind the Bears even being 4-4? They are +7 in turnover differential. That puts them fifth in the league behind Buffalo (+11), Detroit (+11), Pittsburgh (+10) and the LA Chargers (+9). This is a different season for the Bears if their turnover differential is closer to league average. (The Pats are -3, and this is a point to watch on Sunday. If the Pats don’t turn it over, these teams are far more evenly matched that folks realize.)
• The only team converting third downs at a worse clip than the Bears is the Browns. Does this have any relevance to Sunday? I’m not sure.
• It will not surprise me at all if the Patriots win this game. But I just don’t think the Bears are that bad. So, I’m predicting them to reach an incredibly tedious 5-4, prolonging the Eberflus conversation another week.

Chicago Bears 16, New England Patriots 13

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

A Potentially Historic Sunday at DBB

I used to write an awful lot about football around here, but that was at a time when there were fewer people saturating the market (with mostly boring material). Now I write about Sidney Lumet, and one-act game reactions. Why? Because no one else does that. And if this isn’t going to make me rich, it’s certainly going to make me smile.

Since the fall of 2000, I have missed one Bears game. 24 years. One game. I was in Ireland and spent more than an hour at a pay phone, as my buddy Josh relayed to me the play-by-play of a Bears victory over the Vikings in 2005. I’ve been late to a grandfather’s funeral. I’ve watched the Bears from a Paris hotel in the middle of the night. If they’re playing, I’m watching, and it’s been that way for two and a half decades.

This Sunday, at the Jacob Burns Film Center in Pleasantville, NY, I’ll be presenting one of my favorite films, the 1957 classic Sweet Smell of Success. It will start at 11 AM, with my introduction, followed by a twenty-minute lecture by yours truly and a Q&A. I won’t be leaving the theater until around 2 PM. There is a bar in Pleasantville that will be showing the Bears v. Patriots, and honestly, I will more than likely hustle over there for the end of Q2 and second half. But why I will do that is becoming something of a mystery.

I was so excited about this team a few weeks ago that I went to Washington D.C. to see them. Now, I’m not despondent or dejected. I’m apathetic. I’ve seen this story before, many times. It’s still boring. You want me to use this space to talk about New England’s turnover differential or third-down conversion percentage? You want me to pick three Bears under pressure? Why? You want me to keep a window on my phone open during the Q&A and double-time it to Foley’s on Sunday? I may do that! But it’ll be more instinct than excitement.

I’ll make a prediction tomorrow, and I’ll probably predict the Bears to win. But honestly, it’s more interesting if they lose! If they lose, there’s something to write about Monday morning, something to talk about. Clearly this structure is not working and it’s not going to work. Something has to change. But this is the Chicago Bears. Something always has to change.

Sunday, at least for me, will be a change.

Before the season, I broke up the Bears schedule into three distinct segments:

• Segment One: Weeks 1-6, leading into the bye.
• Segment Two: Weeks 8-10
• Segment Three: Weeks 11-18, wherein six of their final eight games are against division opponents.

Segment one was a success. Could the Bears have beaten both the Texans and the Colts? Absolutely. But they also could have lost to the Titans and Rams. 4-2 is a fair representation of the performance we’ve seen from this team over the first six weeks of the season, and 4-2 gives the Bears an opportunity to be playing knockout football in January.

The next evaluative moment in this season will come at the end of Sunday, November 10th. (For those of you not on Twitter, I’ll be presenting one of my favorite films, Sweet Smell of Success, at the Jacob Burns Film Center in Pleasantville, NY that morning.) After these next three games, the Bears will have played (essentially) half their schedule, nine games, and will be able to establish clear win/loss goals for the second and far more difficult half of their schedule.

So, how do these matchups look?

Sunday 10/27 – @ Washington Commanders

General feeling: Toss-up.

The Commanders have been one of the real surprises of the 2024 season, mostly due to their rookie quarterback’s inspiring play. (The Bears fans on Twitter that seem to resent the success of Jayden Daniels need to grow up.) But Washington still doesn’t play much defense and, with two weeks to prepare, the Bears should be expected to (at worst) make this a shootout.

[Side note: I will be in attendance for this game, which essentially guarantees something abnormal will take place.]

Sunday 11/3 (NYC Marathon Sunday!) – @ Arizona Cardinals

General feeling: Lean Bears.

Arizona is a feisty team, but they are awful defensively, and that building in the desert will be at least half transplants from Chicago.

Read More …

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

On the Potentiality of an Interesting Season

Thought experiment.

Pretend Matt Eberflus’ brain didn’t turn to hot soup against the Denver Broncos and the Bears won that ballgame. The team would be 2-3, on the periphery of the wildcard conversation, with a chance to win their third straight against a Justin Jefferson-less Minnesota Vikings this Sunday. This would be a massive contest.

But Eberflus’ brain did turn to split pea, and this is not a massive contest. But that doesn’t mean it is unimportant. Just remember, if the Bears win Sunday, they will be 2-4, with a mediocre Raiders team coming to town next week, bringing with them a big, shiny opportunity to be 3-4. And isn’t hovering around .500 with an improving Justin Fields exactly what most of us expected from this campaign?

The Bears could not lose that Broncos game. And they did. Because of that, they needed to win the next three in order to insert relevance into their season.

Washington. √

Minnesota. [ ]

Los Angeles [ ]

Stats of the Week

• Bears have started solving their run game, increasing their average to north of 130 yards per game in recent weeks. That is 50 yards more per game on the ground than Minnesota averages. This is Chicago’s most significant advantage.
  • The Vikings and Steelers are the only teams in the NFL without a rushing touchdown.
• Justin Jefferson is 6th in catches, 3rd in total yards, 1st in big plays. His absence cannot be overstated; he is the best player on this team by a significant margin and it is a huge advantage for the Bears that he won’t be playing. Minnesota still has receiving talent, especially TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison, but those players should prove far more manageable without Jefferson on the field.
• Only one quarterback has thrown more touchdown passes than Justin Fields: Kirk Cousins.

Read More …

In ole New England

‘Tis lovely this time of year.

Well, at least it was.

It ain’t easy but…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Three Stats That Matter

• Patriots are only allowing opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of 81.1. (9th) Justin Fields has a rating of 72.7. (32nd)
• Bears are allowing 163 yards per game on the ground. (29th) Patriots average 131.3 per game. (10th)
• In 13 punt return attempts this season, the Patriots rank 7th, averaging 10.9 yards per return. They only have two fair catches. The Bears have 8 return attempts, rank 30th at 4.4 yards per return, and have two game-costing fumbles.

You have to do serious digging to find an advantage for the Bears tonight.

Video of the Week

Four Favorite Things About New England (Eating & Drinking Category)

(4) Crow’s Nest, Gloucester MA

Ever see The Perfect Storm? Well, this is the bar. It’s real and it’s there. And if you’re an adventurous sort, you can sleep upstairs.

____________________

(3) The Black Duck Cafe, Westport CT

Hey, how many bars are actually slowly falling into the water? This one is!

Read More …

DBB is currently on a short 40th birthday vacation in Atlantic City, NJ. If news breaks on the GM/coach front, we will break that sabbatical and have commentary right here.

All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Saturday

• Money Line Parlay: Bengals over Raiders, Bills over Patriots (+112).
  • I’m a believer in Bisaccia magic, and I think the Raiders pass rush will give Joe Burrow trouble, but the Bengals just have too much firepower to lose at home in the first round. I wouldn’t feel confident laying the six points, so I’m hanging onto the money line.
  • The most overrated victory of the season was New England’s Monday night victory in Buffalo. It wasn’t a real game. It was a football chess match played in a typhoon and Belichick might be the sport’s only master. The Bills are the better team, with the better quarterback. That’s where my money goes in the postseason.

Sunday

• Money Line Parlay: Bucs over Eagles, Cowboys over Niners (+113).
  • Philly is 0-7 against playoff teams this season and the way you exploit this Bucs defense is with an accurate quarterback. (The Eagles don’t have that.) Tom Brady isn’t losing to Jalen Hurts.
  • Cowboys vs. Niners profiles as the game of the week but I don’t think San Francisco’s secondary can hang with these Dallas weapons. How the hell are the Niners covering a receiving corps that goes 4-5 deep with talent? (They’re not.)
• Same Game Parlay: Chiefs -12.5 over Steelers / Under 46.5 points (+264).
  • I think the Steelers score ten points in this game, which means the Chiefs need to score only 23 to cover the number. It also means they need to score 37 to hit the over, and in frigid conditions that seems unlikely. 30-10 hits both bets safely and that’s my final score prediction.

Monday

For me, Cardinals at Rams is a gambling stay away. I don’t particularly trust either team. But the guide needs to have some action.

• Spread: Rams -4 over Cardinals.
  • Since beating the Bears on December 5th, the Cardinals are 1-4, only eking out a victory over the Cowboys. This is a team, and a head coach, that peak on Halloween every season. And last week, in a game they needed, they let Rashaad Penny run for 8.3 yards per carry. You need to be tough to win on the road in the playoffs. That’s not this team.
  • Why is it a stay away, then? Because Matthew Stafford has been sneaky terrible for over a month. Would anyone be surprised if he threw three picks and threw the Rams season away?