I am not one of those people who has ten bets on the Super Bowl. I can’t keep track of that much action. I love betting the coin toss, sometimes the length of the national anthem, and then I’ll have two or three strategic choices. Today, I present those choices. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bet #1: Saquon Barkley UNDER 113.5 rushing yards. (-110)

Steve Spagnuolo is spending every single minute of his preparation on limiting Barkley, the best offensive player in the sport this season. Will he? Yes, to a degree. I think Barkley is still going to get 15-20 carries and might even get near 100 yards. But the Chiefs are good tacklers at the back of their defense, and they will limit Saquon’s big play ability. (And if you believe that Barkley will be under this number, you might consider parlaying it with the Chiefs on the money line.)

Bet #2: Patrick Mahomes OVER 6.5 rushing attempts (+107)

The liability on this Chiefs roster is the ability of their offensive tackles to protect and the Eagles present the most dynamic front Kansas City will have seen in months. Patrick Mahomes combats that liability with his legs, frustrating defenses with a series of conversions on 3rd-and-six. This should be a close game, where every one of those conversions feels massive in the second half.

Bet #3: Chris Jones OVER .25 sacks (+114)

Why not? He’s Chris Jones, and all you need is for him to jump on Hurts at the end of miscalculated scramble. Jones had a down year in the sack department, but these are the Chiefs, and this is for the championship. If they’re going to win a third straight title, Jones will be part of the story.

$100 bet wins $745.69

There are plenty of ways to full-season gamble on the NFL. Fantasy football. Over/unders. Player props. (Somewhere I have a Trubisky 2019 MVP ticket from Borgata in Atlantic City.) But last year, some friends and I began experimenting with a new one: parlaying every division winner. A $5 parlay on all the favorites winning their respective divisions will pay north of $1500. If you start working in some underdogs you can be looking at a payout between $3500-4000. They’re not easy bets to hit but they’re fun bets to follow.

It’s also an interesting way to present a de facto NFL preview. (I just took screenshots of the odds from the DraftKings Sportsbook app, so there’s no rhyme or reason to the order which they’ll be presented.) Here’s part one.

• I think the NFC West is a place to experiment because I think all four of those clubs could win that division, with Arizona the longest of the shots. How is Sean McVay going to respond to his first real dose of adversity in the league? How is Seattle going to perform as they’re set to lose their greatest strength, the league’s best home field advantage? The Niners better be successful on the ground because they have one of the more underwhelming collections of receivers in the league.
• The Chiefs are the biggest divisional favorite in the league and they should be. Will one of my ten parlays maybe throw the Broncos into the mix? Maybe. But I don’t even think a significant injury to Mahomes would be enough to knock them out of the top spot. That’s not confidence in Chad Henne or Matt Moore but more confidence in Andy Reid to find a way.
• Out of ten parlays, I’ll have the Niners in 4, Seahawks in 4 and Rams in 2.
• Out of ten parlays, I’ll have the Chiefs in 9 and Broncos in 1.

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