• Bears are +10 in turnovers and not in the postseason picture. Do people understand how difficult that is to achieve? They are tied fourth in the league and the only team in the top 13 not “in the mix.”
• If the Niners had a healthy backfield, you would expect them to have much success running against this Chicago front. But without McCaffrey or Mason, can they still control the game on the ground with Isaac Guerendo? (If they do, Eric Washington will have some questions to answer Monday AM.)
• If Jaylon Johnson tracks Jauan Jennings across the field, the Bears will need to have an answer for Deebo Samuel, a terrific player having a monumentally disappointing season. (And Cairo Santos should not land a kickoff within five yards of him at any point.)
• Looking for a stat that separates these two teams? The Niners are 7th in the league on third down, converting at a 43.2% clip. The Bears are 29th, converting at 33.5%.
• Niners are averaging only 15 points over their last four games. They will need 20+ to win this game, and I don’t think they’ll get there against a motivated, Flus-less defense.

Chicago Bears 24, San Francisco 49ers 16

All times ET. Home team in CAPS.

Saturday 4:30 PM – Texans at RAVENS (-9)

A battle wages

in the land of McNulty.

The game is the game.

Saturday 8:15 PM – Packers at NINERS (-9.5)

Cover your damn eyes.

Green Bay can beat ANYONE.

They will keep this close.

Sunday 3:00 PM – Bucs at LIONS (-6)

One city makes cars.

One city is all strip clubs.

Baker be dancin’.

Sunday 6:30 PM – Chiefs at BILLS (-3)

My head says Mahomes.

But my heart is in New York,

drenched in Elmo’s sauce.

Last week the picks were 2-4 but in fairness I picked the Steelers expecting them to cover in a blizzard. This week I’m on Baltimore -9, Packers +9.5, Bucs +6, Bills -3.

Kansas City 27, Jacksonville 20

Four mistakes.

Four mistakes cost the Jaguars a remarkable trip to the AFC Championship Game.

• They dropped an easy Chad Henne interception that would have likely been returned for a touchdown.
• Christian Kirk dropped a beautiful Trevor Lawrence deep shot that Cris Collinsworth inexplicably described as “overthrown.” (Collinsworth’s praising of Patrick Mahomes during this game became comical at times. Throws into the ground were being called brilliant.)
• Jamal Agnew let the kicker tackle him on a return when he was coasting into the open field. Every return man will tell you that the kicker can NEVER be the tackler.
• Agnew committed an unforced fumble, with the Jags driving for a score, down ten, just over five minutes to go.

A dissertation could be written about the Jaguar approach to Travis Kelce but even with the tight end’s dominant performance, Jacksonville should have won this ballgame. They didn’t. Because of four mistakes.

Eagles 38, Giants 7

It’s not surprising the Eagles won. It is a bit surprising that the Giants – who have been defined lately by their grit – were completely toothless. I came away from this snooze of a game with three thoughts.

• I don’t remember a more difficult evaluation than Daniel Jones and I don’t envy Joe Schoen in the coming weeks. Jones is clearly a starting quarterback in the NFL but is he an upper echelon starting QB? Do upper echelon starting quarterbacks pitch quarterback ratings of 53 in the postseason? Would Jones accept a contract in the Kirk Cousins realm: short-term and fully guaranteed? Three years, $75 million?
• The Vikings were the hollowest 13-game winner in the history of the NFL.
• Did the Eagles even need Robert Quinn? They have pass rush coming from every direction and that’s going to make them incredibly difficult to beat in their building next week. Folks are fond of saying the Niners have the best roster in the sport. The Eagles have a real argument.

Read More …