If you want to understand my thoughts on how the Bears should approach the Rams defense tonight, they are all illustrated in Kyle Shanahan’s masterful scheme from a week ago. Avoid the middle. Throw on early downs. Screen them to death.

You don’t have to wager a ton of money to have fun gambling on the Super Bowl. But the trick is to space out the bets across the game. That way, even if the game’s a bore, and many of them are, you’ll have something to keep you interested throughout. Here are five bets, all courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bet #1 -Coin Toss: Heads & Kansas City Chiefs (+255)

Why the hell not? (And this bet could be over before they even flip the coin!)

Bet #2 -Patrick Mahomes to Score TD & Chiefs Win (+650)

His running has started changing games because defenses are so afraid of his arm. The pressure from the Niners will be there so I expect Mahomes to take off more than usual. (And I’m all-in on Andy Reid winning this game.)

Bet #3 – George Kittle to Score a TD (+125)

Once Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs defense settles into this game, Jimmy G will be under pressure. That means he’ll be forced to get the ball out quickly and that means Kittle. Also, if this game gets away from San Francisco, I could see Kittle catching a million balls underneath deep coverage in garbage time.

Bet #4 -San Francisco to Win the First Quarter (+148)

The Chiefs don’t even wake up in these games until they’re down double digits.

Bet #5 -Total Over 54 Points (-110)

Who the hell roots for low-scoring Super Bowls? These games are only fun when there’s scoring. They’re not football games. They’re television shows. And television shows require action, especially because the experience always feels interminable. (The halftime show just never ends and it’s never good.) This game feels like it’s going to be way closer to Eagles/Patriots than Rams/Patriots.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Still have my head above water this postseason, thanks mainly to believing Derrick Henry is an unstoppable force and wagering heavily on him in both rounds. We’re down to the final three games of the 2019 NFL season. Need a strong finish to a solid gambling campaign.

2:05 PM Central

AFC Championship Game

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

Over/Under: 52.5

This is Andy Reid’s time. He’s one of the best coaches in the history of this sport. He’s got one of the most prolific, successful coaching trees in the history of the sport. He’s sacrificed so much for this game he loves and all that’s missing from his resume is a title. Once he wins on the final Sunday, his next stop is Canton. I can’t see him losing this title game at home. And I can’t see Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo not completely selling out to stop the run.

Final score prediction: Chiefs 34, Titans 20. 

5:40 PM Central

NFC Championship Game

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

Over/Under: 45

They can run the ball. They can rush the passer. They have a quarterback who always gets them into the right play and makes the big throw. Are the Packers a great team? No. But they’re built to succeed in this spot. I’m not taking them to win. But I won’t be surprised if they do.

Final score prediction: Niners 31, Packers 30

It was not an exciting game. So let’s get right into rapid fire…

• The score of this game was 14-9 with about five minutes left in the third quarter. That’s how good this Bears defense is. They simply dominate inferior opponents. Akiem Hicks was unblockable, Leonard Floyd has been one of the better defenders in the league the last several weeks and Khalil Mack is, well, one of the best football players I’ve ever seen.
• Yesterday is the game the Bears need from Mitch Trubisky on the road in the postseason. He was poised, accurate and (mostly) smart with the football.

Great individual play by Trubisky. But watch him in the pocket before he vacates. Tries to climb. 2nd straight week he’s done it. 👌

He grows as a passer with stuff like this. Progressions, patience, eyes down field. Then go if it’s not there. pic.twitter.com/fzxsMXEMOk

— Joe Tidei (@JoeyProspects) December 24, 2018

• The Trubisky-to-Cohen fumble was an awfully stupid moment for both the quarterback and the coach. Matt Nagy’s signature flaw as a play caller is a failure to recognize when simplicity is working. When Jordan Howard gains 9 yards on first down, you don’t need to run a college option on second down. You turn around and hand Howard the ball again.
• George Kittle is a pain in the ass.
• From Dan Pompei on Twitter: “The 49ers are one of the best teams ever at pulling the ball out after the runner is down.”
• If I were Nagy and Ryan Pace I would have seriously considered benching all my star players due to the conditions yesterday. What was that field? Levi’s Stadium made Soldier Field’s turf look like Augusta National. Kyle Fuller fell down three times in the first half! Once again, if you believe the league is concerned with player safety, you’re a dupe.

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“So whoop-de-do and hickory dock
And don’t forget to hang up your sock.”

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…and what’s not to like about this 2018 vintage? Seriously. They’re not just good. They are an extremely likable group of fellas.

Five Generic Thoughts on the Game

• Does the result matter for the Bears Sunday? Probably not. But the performances of Deon Bush, filling in for Eddie Jackson, and the rotational third edge rushers (Isaiah Irving, Kylie Fitts…etc.) are pivotal. Matt Nagy seemed optimistic when evaluating the injuries of Jackson and Aaron Lynch but neither looked good. If the Bears have to play a postseason game without one or both, they’ll need these depth pieces to step up and play well.
• If you listened to Tuesday’s Hoge & Jahns podcast – and you’re stupid if you don’t listen to every one of their pods – you heard an interesting discussion on how Nagy will handle these games. My guess? Nagy is done putting anything on tape that will help a postseason opponent. No creative looks. No gadget plays. No defensive linemen in the offensive backfield. Sunday should have a preseason feel to it: one-on-one match-ups the Bears will be expected to win because they’re the better, deeper roster by a wide margin.
• Quarterback rating is a flawed statistic but it’s the best stat the NFL has to quantify performance at the position. Mitch Trubisky is ten points worse (97.2 to 87.6) on the road than he is at home, primarily because his TD-to-INT is drastically better at Soldier Field. If the Bears expect to make a deep run in January, Trubisky is most likely going to need a great game in either Los Angeles or New Orleans. He could use a confidence builder on Sunday afternoon.
• The Niners aren’t going to beat the Bears on the outside but tight end George Kittle has been one of the league’s revelations in 2018. Teams have tried to cover him with corners, with linebackers, with safeties. But the Pro Bowler has made plays every single week. Kittle vs. Roquan Smith could be the best match-up of the week but the Bears will likely rotate their defenders to him, including Leonard Floyd.
• San Francisco does not sport a particularly good pass rush, rarely intercept the ball (2 all year) and all allow opposing quarterbacks to play to a 103.1 rating – better than only Detroit and Tampa Bay. Detroit and Tampa Bay were Mitch Trubisky’s most prolific statistical outputs. This is a good match-up for the Bears QB.

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