Our fearless leader led the Building The Board scouting room through an intense Chicago Bears mock draft — check out the show here:
Building the Board: Inside the #Bears War Room – 2024 NFL Mock Draft 2.0 https://t.co/NjgZB6KN1T
— Bears On Tap (@BearsOnTap) April 16, 2024
Ryan Poles is just a few days away from running his 3rd NFL draft for the Chicago Bears. Now that we have two years of draft history to go on, let’s dive in to see what lessons might apply for 2024.
The first and most clear trend is that Ryan Poles likes to draft athletic players. We see this through a few different metrics:
To be fair, most of the high draft picks in the NFL are athletic players. Thus, this lesson doesn’t really tell us specific names the Bears might target. But it does let us look for players at need positions the Bears might avoid.
The overwhelming majority of players projected to go in the top 2 rounds have a high RAS, but there are a few highly rated guys who aren’t super athletic, like DE Darius Robinson (3.97 RAS) or C Zach Frazier (6.46 RAS), and it seems unlikely the Bears will be interested in a player like that.
Once you start to get into the middle rounds, there are more guys who aren’t great athletes, and I will be surprised to see the Bears target anybody from this list of mid-round players at positions of need:
Through 2 drafts, Poles has pulled off 8 trades that involved pick swaps. In 7 of those, he moved down to create extra picks, which seems to be his preference. Given that the Bears currently only have 4 draft picks for this year, I anticipate we will see him trade down at least once to pick up extra selections, and I won’t be shocked to see multiple trade downs.
The Bears’ pre-draft actions also hint that they are heavily considering trading down early in the draft. Teams are limited to bringing in 30 players for pre-draft visits, and the Bears have used several of them on players projected to go in the 20-50 range despite not currently having a pick between 9 and 75.
That’s a whole lot of players – more than 20% of their allotted visits – who are projected to go in a range where the Bears have no picks, which indicates to me they are seriously considering trading back from the 9th pick.
To be fair, Chicago has also done their homework on potential fits if they stick at number 9, as they’ve brought in with players ranked 5th (WR Malik Nabers), 6th (WR Rome Odunze), 8th (Dallas Turner), and 10th (Brock Bowers) on the consensus big board. My guess is that the Bears will have 1-2 guys they would take at pick 9 if they are available, but otherwise will look to trade back a bit and pick up an extra pick or two in the draft.
It’s also worth noting that Poles also showed a willingness to move up in the draft for a guy he covets last year, when he gave up a 4th round pick to move from 61 to 56 and secure CB Tyrique Stevenson. Given the small number of picks this year, a trade up seems less likely, but Poles could get creative and look to move up with 2025 draft capital. They currently have an extra 2nd round pick for next year, and that could be packaged with pick 122 this year to get into the 2nd round (this is what the Bears did to trade up for WR Anthony Miller in 2018).
Another trend we’ve seen clearly through Poles’ first two drafts is the willingness to draft 2 or even 3 players at the same position.
It’s hard to envision a double dip this year with only 4 picks, but if they pick up a few extra selections via trade down, then it could be a real possibility. The two positions I could see that most realistically happening at are DE and WR. In both cases, the Bears need another starter, which could prompt a high pick, and there’s also room for a later pick to push for a roster spot against pretty weak depth.
Once again, the Bears have already hinted at this possibility. Head coach Matt Eberflus was caught on mic telling Ryan Poles they should “take two of them” while watching defensive linemen work out at the Combine.
Another clear trend we see is that Poles loves to invest in defense early in the draft. Five of his seven day 1-2 picks have been spent on defenders, despite the Bears having just as many (if not more) offensive needs over the last two years. This trend has carried over to veteran signings as well, where the Bears have handed out significantly more money to the defense ($115M/year, $226M guaranteed) than offense ($58M/year, $89M guaranteed).
This is what happens when you double down on a defensive head coach who likes to run a simple scheme that requires high level players to work (rather than winning schematically), and I fully expect the trend to continue in 2024. Outside of QB, which is obviously going to be the #1 pick, Chicago has 2 clear holes in their current starting lineup: WR3 (currently Tyler Scott) and DE2 (currently DeMarcus Walker). I fully expect them to prioritize defensive end as being more important. Depending on how they view Gervon Dexter, they might also see 3-technique defensive tackle as a huge need as well.
In short, here are the four main lessons we have learned from Ryan Poles’ first two drafts:
The last three trends all seem to be aligning nicely, in my view. If Ryan Poles trades back from pick 9, he will be in range to invest a first round pick on a pass rusher (DEs like Jared Verse or Chop Robinson or DTs like Byron Murphy or Johnny Newton feel like possible targets), and then have extra picks he can spend to further bolster the pass rush later in the draft.
There is no saying for sure how the draft will unfold – I am sure the Bears’ ultimate action at 9 depends on what happens between picks 2 and 8 – but my read of Poles’ draft history, plus Chicago’s moves so far this offseason – makes me think that is his plan A.
With the NFL’s divisional round of the playoffs wrapped up, 28 out of 32 fanbases are free to pivot towards previewing the NFL Draft. And if you know anything about the Reese’s Senior Bowl… you know ‘The Draft Starts in Mobile, Alabama’.
I’m credited to cover the Reese’s Senior Bowl again this year, which means I’ll spend next week watching some of the 2024 NFL Draft Class’s best prospects as they showcase their skills in practice sessions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
The Senior Bowl rarely features players sure of their draft status (like last year’s Myles Murphy or this year’s Marvin Harrison Jr), but all kinds of talent will be present next week — last year we saw Darnell Wright, John Michael Schmitz, Keanu Benton, Jayden Reed, Michael Wilson, Tyrique Stevenson, JuJu Brents, and plenty of other soon-to-be high-rounders compete and win throughout the sessions, and I expect to see the same this year.
But if you read this blog consistently, you know that I couldn’t go to Mobile unprepared — I’ve been drinking down as much college film as I can stand to fit into my life over the last two weeks and, throughout this week, will do my best to get you caught up on names I’ve found to watch throughout draft season.
You probably know the big names — players like LSU WR Malik Nabers or Washington WR Rome Odunze need no introduction, but it’s players like:
That may be under your radar right now. They’re the names to know, because they could very well be targets in the key Day 2 rounds (2nd & 3rd) that fuel a draft class’s success.
I’ll be focusing on skill position players this year — practices in Mobile are split, with DBs & WRs in one endzone and OL/DL in the other, so I won’t try to be everywhere at once. As I prep for my trip, I’ll post as many draft cut-ups as I can — if draft prep is starting for me, it might as well start for you too!
Here’s to a great 2024 draft season! Now back to the film room — I’ll see you soon.
Your Turn: What position are you most looking forward to drafting after Round 1?
It wasn’t a particularly interesting draft for the Bears, content-wise. They had lots of picks, and lots of needs. They used those picks to address those needs. Simple as that.
But we’ll start with our club.
As for the rest of the league…
We’ll be live on Twitter all evening and will update this page with Bears moves.
We’ll be live on Twitter all evening and will update this page with Bears moves.
We’ll be live on Twitter all evening and will update this page with Bears moves.
Stop what you’re doing & meet @ELITHEMAN1 😂 pic.twitter.com/Qpa8EtjRTn
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) April 30, 2022
We’ll have a full recap of this draft haul for the Bears tomorrow.
Washington, CB, Kyler Gordon
From NFL.com: “Cornerback who comes with an elite, high-performance engine but a GPS still in the process of loading. Gordon’s dynamic athletic qualities will show up in testing, but more importantly, they are all over his tape. His blend of play strength and explosive burst affects the passing game from press, off-man and zone coverages. He plays with an alpha demeanor and hitting is definitely part of his overall package. Gordon lacks polish and needs to play with better route recognition and anticipation, but if those elements click, his ball production could be near the top of the league as one of the top playmakers in the game.”
Penn State, S, Jaquan Brisker
From NFL.com: “Athletic safety prospect whose versatility and toughness will endear him to coaches during the evaluation process. Brisker continued to pick up elements of the defensive scheme and his play has steadily transformed from hesitant in 2019 to downright instinctive in 2021. He has the versatility to become a moving chess piece in a variety of coverages and has the size and talent to match up with both “Y” and “F” tight ends. He played with a banged-up shoulder in 2021 so his 2020 tape is a clearer indicator of his run support acumen. Brisker is an ascending talent with the NFL traits to become a long-time starter as a Day 2 draft pick.”
Tennessee, WR, Velus Jones Jr.
From NFL.com: “Special-teams specialist with good size. Despite spending six seasons in college between his time at USC and Tennessee, Jones has very modest production as a wideout, but flashed potential in that area in 2021. He’s fearless with the ball in his hands after the catch and as a kick returner. He’s not a very fundamentally sound route-runner but might not need to be if teams view him as a catch-and-run specialist in the quick game underneath. Jones has a chance to ride his special teams versatility into a specialist spot on a roster.”
