221 Comments

The Draft Starts In Mobile!… Next Week

| January 22nd, 2024


With the NFL’s divisional round of the playoffs wrapped up, 28 out of 32 fanbases are free to pivot towards previewing the NFL Draft. And if you know anything about the Reese’s Senior Bowl… you know ‘The Draft Starts in Mobile, Alabama’.

I’m credited to cover the Reese’s Senior Bowl again this year, which means I’ll spend next week watching some of the 2024 NFL Draft Class’s best prospects as they showcase their skills in practice sessions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

The Senior Bowl rarely features players sure of their draft status (like last year’s Myles Murphy or this year’s Marvin Harrison Jr), but all kinds of talent will be present next week — last year we saw Darnell Wright, John Michael Schmitz, Keanu Benton, Jayden Reed, Michael Wilson, Tyrique Stevenson, JuJu Brents, and plenty of other soon-to-be high-rounders compete and win throughout the sessions, and I expect to see the same this year.

But if you read this blog consistently, you know that I couldn’t go to Mobile unprepared — I’ve been drinking down as much college film as I can stand to fit into my life over the last two weeks and, throughout this week, will do my best to get you caught up on names I’ve found to watch throughout draft season.

You probably know the big names — players like LSU WR Malik Nabers or Washington WR Rome Odunze need no introduction, but it’s players like:

  • Georgia Z/Slot WR Ladd McConkey
    • One of the nastiest route runners in an already loaded class
  • Texas A&M Z/Slot WR Ainias Smith
    • Heady route runner that blocks like he hates his opponent
  • South Carolina’s massive Z WR Xavier Legette
    • Massive, dynamic athlete with great hands
  • Auburn Free Safety Jaylin Simpson
    • Whose tape I’ve loved
  • Penn State CB Kalen King
    • His tape can be messy, but he’s got all the natural physicality of a Tyrique Stevenson-type plus more agility than most CBs his size
  • Rutgers CB Max Melton
    • Brother of Bo Melton, Max is long, physical, and fast. High-motor player

That may be under your radar right now. They’re the names to know, because they could very well be targets in the key Day 2 rounds (2nd & 3rd) that fuel a draft class’s success.

I’ll be focusing on skill position players this year — practices in Mobile are split, with DBs & WRs in one endzone and OL/DL in the other, so I won’t try to be everywhere at once. As I prep for my trip, I’ll post as many draft cut-ups as I can — if draft prep is starting for me, it might as well start for you too!

Here’s to a great 2024 draft season! Now back to the film room — I’ll see you soon.

Your Turn: What position are you most looking forward to drafting after Round 1?

Tagged: , ,

195 Comments

Improved Bears, Tired Broadcast: Reflections on the 2023 NFL Draft

| May 1st, 2023


It wasn’t a particularly interesting draft for the Bears, content-wise. They had lots of picks, and lots of needs. They used those picks to address those needs. Simple as that.

But we’ll start with our club.

  • The Bears clearly have two elements required to be a successful franchise: an identity and a plan. They want to be fast and athletic (who doesn’t?) but they also want to be tough. They drafted a whole bunch of tough guys this weekend. Ryan Poles is not going to be swayed by popular perception. He stands pat, he trusts his evaluations, he makes his picks. It’s refreshing to see.
  • As of now, the offensive line looks to be Braxton Jones – Teven Jenkins – Cody Whitehair – Nate Davis – Darnell Wright. Thoughts on this:
    • While many, including myself, wanted to see the Bears select a center, it is quite understandable that they didn’t see the position as a priority. Offensive lines need SOME veteran leadership and outside of Whitehair, the average age on the rest of this line is 24.
    • The offensive line was poor last year, outside of Jones and Jenkins. Ryan Poles has replaced the other three positions.
    • Lucas Patrick and Larry Borom can now fill their appropriate roles, with the former as swing depth inside and the latter as swing depth outside.
  • The Bears were manhandled in the middle of their defensive line throughout the 2022 season. Look at the size they have added inside:
    • Andrew Billings is 6’1, 311
    • Rasheem Green is 6’4, 279
    • Demarcus Walker is 6’4, 280
    • Gervon Dexter is 6’6, 312
    • Zacch Pickens is 6’4, 300
  • There is no reason to get overexcited about day three selections, but running backs tend to be the exception. And the Bears are wild about Roschon Johnson. Don’t be surprised if they give this kid an opportunity to be their starting running back.
  • Tyler Scott is a speed addition, protection for Velus Jones’ struggles in 2022. Does this mean Velus’ roster spot is tenuous? It might. If Scott shows he can steal those jet sweeps and go routes, while also contributing on specials, Velus could find himself looking for a home this summer.
  • The Bears are improved on both lines, hypothetically. If the hypothesis becomes fact, they’ll be playing meaningful football in December.

As for the rest of the league…

Read More …

Tagged: , ,

690 Comments

NFL Draft, Rounds Two & Three, Open Thread

| April 29th, 2022

Pick # 39

Washington, CB, Kyler Gordon

From NFL.com: “Cornerback who comes with an elite, high-performance engine but a GPS still in the process of loading. Gordon’s dynamic athletic qualities will show up in testing, but more importantly, they are all over his tape. His blend of play strength and explosive burst affects the passing game from press, off-man and zone coverages. He plays with an alpha demeanor and hitting is definitely part of his overall package. Gordon lacks polish and needs to play with better route recognition and anticipation, but if those elements click, his ball production could be near the top of the league as one of the top playmakers in the game.”


Pick #48

Penn State, S, Jaquan Brisker

From NFL.com: “Athletic safety prospect whose versatility and toughness will endear him to coaches during the evaluation process. Brisker continued to pick up elements of the defensive scheme and his play has steadily transformed from hesitant in 2019 to downright instinctive in 2021. He has the versatility to become a moving chess piece in a variety of coverages and has the size and talent to match up with both “Y” and “F” tight ends. He played with a banged-up shoulder in 2021 so his 2020 tape is a clearer indicator of his run support acumen. Brisker is an ascending talent with the NFL traits to become a long-time starter as a Day 2 draft pick.”


Pick #71

Tennessee, WR, Velus Jones Jr. 

From NFL.com: “Special-teams specialist with good size. Despite spending six seasons in college between his time at USC and Tennessee, Jones has very modest production as a wideout, but flashed potential in that area in 2021. He’s fearless with the ball in his hands after the catch and as a kick returner. He’s not a very fundamentally sound route-runner but might not need to be if teams view him as a catch-and-run specialist in the quick game underneath. Jones has a chance to ride his special teams versatility into a specialist spot on a roster.”

Tagged: , , , , ,

183 Comments

Using Historical Trends to Guide Chicago’s Draft Approach

| April 28th, 2022


Let’s look at historical trends to see where the Bears can expect to find positional value at various points in the draft. This builds very closely off work I’ve done each of the last two years, and here’s a quick recap of the approach:

  • I looked at the last 15 drafts (2007-21) to see how many players at each position were drafted in the top 50 (their 2nd round picks are #39 and 48), top 70 (their 3rd round pick is #71), and top 150 (their next picks are #148 and #150). I didn’t look at the 1st round because the Bears don’t have a 1st round pick this year.
    • My source for this data did not differentiate between CB and S, so I combined those into DB.
    • They did differentiate between interior offensive line and offensive tackle, so I kept those separate.
  • I then used The Athletic’s composite big board, which averages rankings from a number of different draft sources, to compare to historical trends. I focused especially on positions which I believe are the primary needs for the Bears. The idea here is that positions with more players than usual ranked in a given range are more likely to have somebody highly rated slip through the cracks, while positions with fewer players than usual ranked in a given range are more likely to have somebody reach for them to fill a need.

This is my third year applying this approach to the draft, and I was a bit hesitant about it at first, because it seems risky to rely on draft rankings from people who don’t work in the NFL. It’s quite possible that people in the NFL view these players entirely differently. However, I think the track record has been pretty solid over the last two years. For instance:

  • In 2020, I found the Bears should look to grab a defensive back early, because the depth on day three was not very good, and they landed Jaylon Johnson in round two. I also found the value at WR should be good throughout the draft, so the Bears could add there at any point, and they found Darnell Mooney in round five.
  • In 2021, I found the QB class was loaded at the top but not deep, so the Bears should look to take a QB early. At the same time, I found the OT class was historically deep, so they should look to draft one early and another late. They ended up with Justin Fields, Teven Jenkins, and Larry Borom all contributing as rookies.
  • Of course, it hasn’t all been great. In 2020 I said the Bears would not find value at TE in round 2, and they landed Cole Kmet, who has at least been a capable player (even if I don’t think he’s particularly great).

This is definitely an inexact science, and we don’t want to put too much stock in it, but I think it’s a useful exercise to see what positions might have more good players than usual, and thus possibly value for the Bears.


Round 2 (Top 50)

Here is the data for players drafted in the top 50.

  • Because every draft is different, I provided a range from the least to most players at that position drafted in the top 50 picks since 2007, as well as an average.
  • The last column shows how many players from that position are ranked in the top 50 right now according to the composite big board linked above.
  • Positions that are particularly good or bad are highlighted in colors (red for historically low, orange for near the low end of the range, light green for near the top end of the range, and green for historically good).

A few thoughts:

  • It’s a good year for the Bears to need a WR, especially at the top of their draft. There are nine WRs ranked in the top 50 on the composite big board, there have been eight or fewer WRs taken in the top 50 13 times in the last 15 drafts. If history holds here, the Bears should have some solid value options at WR with either of their second round picks.
  • There also seems to be pretty solid value at defensive back, where 12 players are ranked in the top 50 and 13 of the last 15 drafts have seen 11 or fewer DBs selected in that range. The Bears could use starters at outside CB, nickel CB, and safety, so they may look to fill one of those spots in the second round.
  • The rest of the Bears’ biggest need positions are right around their historical averages, meaning there may or may not be value present for the Bears, depending on how the draft falls.

Read More …

Tagged: , , ,