TRENDING: #Bears guard (#64) Nate Davis is COMPLETELY LOST ON THE FOOTBALL
FIELD

(via @CNOtheCEO)
pic.twitter.com/6eXTMw5yOf

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) September 16, 2024

The Bears’ offense is a work-in-progress, and I’ve been trying to encourage folks to not expect this unit to be fully formed until round Thanksgiving. Training camp and the preseason are no longer functionally effective. (Just look at a lot of the offenses around the league.) It takes teams time, and the Bears come into this season with new players across the eleven. But there are certainly some concerning trends through two games, most notably their inability to run the ball. The run game was supposed to be a given for the 2024 Chicago Bears and it has been anything but. Is this a serious concern or are Tennessee and Houston two of the better defenses? We’ll find out in Indianapolis next weekend.

More Bears Thoughts.

• Eberflus and Waldron have to seriously consider sending Nate Davis to the bench. Rarely does a guard look so noticeably lost down-for-down. (See Tweet above.)
• It is hard to evaluate the league statistically at this juncture because the horror show that is the Carolina Panthers is skewing everything, but the Bears profile as a defense that is going to be right around a top five unit. Holding the Texans under twenty points at home is a sizable achievement.
• Bears have allowed three second-half points.
• Where are the wide receivers? That unit needs to be a team strength, and it has been a liability early. One would expect this to change quickly.
• In no scenario should Gerald Everett be more involved in the passing attack than Cole Kmet.

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Your Turn: What are you looking for from today’s joint practice session with Cincinnati?

The offseason is winding down as we are now firmly in training camp and shifting into preseason mode, but before the real games start I want to sneak one last series examining part of the roster to give us a better sense of what to expect in the 2024 season.

I’ve spent quite a bit of time looking at the offense in the last few months, as we’ve learned together about new OC Shane Waldron, the WRs, the TEs, and expectations for rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. However, I’ve completely ignored the offensive line, and want to spend a little time this week focusing on the big boys up front who will be tasked with protecting the quarterback and opening lanes in the run game.

We’ll start today with the interior, and look at tackles tomorrow.

Guards

Pass Protection

Let’s start with guards, and then begin by examining pass protection, which is the most important part of an offensive lineman’s job. There were 62 guards (1.9/team) who had at least 300 pass blocking snaps in 2023, which is roughly starters. Chicago had three players in this sample: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, and Cody Whitehair. The table below shows how they help up protecting the passer compared their peers around the NFL. A few quick notes:

• All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
• True pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush and make the OL’s job easier, such as screens, play action, and rollout.
• Pass blocking efficiency measures overall pressure allowed, but weights sacks more heavily than other pressures. A higher number is better.
• In a 62 player sample, 31st would be the middle rank, while cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25% (top 16) and red indicates the bottom 25% (47th or worse).
• Ryan Bates is also included, since he will be competing for a starting spot this year.
  • He didn’t play much in 2023, so his data is from 2022, and thus doesn’t have any ranks indicated.
  • The Bears plan to have him compete at center, but he’s only played 203 career snaps at C spread across 4 seasons, so that’s not much to go on. He played 821 snaps at guard in 2022, the only season where he’s had starting snaps, so that’s what we’ll evaluate.

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With the Bears’ first preseason game in the books and no practice news to speak of, the only noteworthy thing that happened in Chicago football over the last few days was Nate Davis returning to practice.

From what I understand, Nate Davis has been nursing a legitimate injury (as opposed to skipping practice) so it’s great to see him back on the field. He should be a major help to Darnell Wright as a consistent pass-protector that does a great job handling his own business and helping his Tackle when needed. Davis is known for being a mauler in the run game, so get to know his pass pro abilities while you still have the chance — if he’s fully healthy by Week 1, they should show out against a tough GB front.

Nate Davis (the new #Bears Guard) does a really good job of keeping his base in pass pro — he's got very quick feet, meaning he consistently stays between his man & the QB, plus he keeps his head-up and catches stunts well.

Keep an eye on the RG here. You'll like what you see. pic.twitter.com/XpCRbzRhqe

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) March 14, 2023

Speaking of tough fronts, is there anybody on the Bears’ DL that can back up Andrew Billings?

Billings looked like the clear largest defensive lineman on the Bears last Saturday, but we saw a few examples of the burst & power he can bring to the Bears’ interior line once the Titans fought their way to the goal line — if Billings can capably take on double-teams in the run game and emphatically win his single-block opportunities, he may change the calculus for a Bears’ run defense that sorely needs a space-eater in the middle.

It’s a big year for the former Baylor Bear — if he shows out in Chicago, he may finally get the multi-year deal I imagine he’s been chasing since 2019.

#Bears new Nose Tackle Andrew Billings brings a healthy dose of size and violence to a D-Line that sorely needs it.

He's a decent interior pocket-squeezer and eats up space in the run game well. Check out some of the battles on this reel — he's not an easy man to move! pic.twitter.com/Jd9FFh5tbg

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) March 23, 2023

Your Turn: How are you feeling about Davis and Billings so far this offseason?

Today is the fourth of eight articles taking a closer look at Justin Fields’ 2022 season.

• Part 1: Comparison to rookie season and growth throughout 2022
• Part 2: Where and how effectively Fields threw the ball.
• Part 3: How Fields did on different types of plays (play action, quick vs. slow developing).
• Part 4: How often Fields was under pressure, and who was to blame.
• Part 5: How Fields performed under pressure.
• Part 6: How efficiently Fields produced explosive plays.
• Part 7: How Fields did against man and zone.
• Part 8: Fields’ future outlook.

All data comes from Pro Football Focus (PFF) unless otherwise noted, and Fields’ per-snap stats are only from Week 5 on, as was explained in part one of this series. (Volume stats are still season-long for an easy comparison to other QBs.)

Pressure Frequency

Like we saw in his rookie season, Fields was under heavy pressure in 2022. PFF had him pressured on 45% of drop backs, the worst rate of 33 qualified QBs and 12% higher than the NFL average. Pro Football Reference, which is more selective with what they consider a pressure, had him at a 27% pressure rate, the 3rd worst mark in the NFL (range from 13% to 29%, with an average of 21%, quick side note that this is full season, not just from week 5 on).

The table below shows how frequently PFF blamed pressure on each position. Fields’ stat is provided, and his rank compared to the other 33 QBs, as well as the range of the other qualifying QBs.  Cells where Fields ranked in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while cells where Fields ranked in the bottom 25% are highlighted in red.

A few thoughts:

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For the first time since he became the GM, Ryan Poles is showing aggressiveness and his plans for the team are becoming clear.

In a vacuum, it’s hard to argue with trading the first overall pick to the Carolina Panthers for the ninth pick, their 2024 first and, perhaps most importantly, DJ Moore, amongst other pieces. That trade values Moore as a first-round pick, which makes sense when you compare his production to others who have been traded in recent years. Furthermore, getting Moore in the trade will make the Panthers worse in 2024 and 2025, thus improving the draft picks the Bears will receive in those years as part of the trade.

Moore doesn’t just give the Bears an actual Number One wide receiver, he goes them a WR1 who fits their quarterback. His average depth of target (ADOT) — 13.1 — was second amongst players with 100 or more targets. Justin Fields throws a great deep ball and with Moore, Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, the Bears will have three wide receivers who can be on the receiving ends of those bombs.

Edwards+Edmunds+2nd rounder > Roquan

Nobody who is qualified to speak on the subject will tell you the Bears upgraded from Roquan Smith, but they clearly upgraded the linebacker position with a series of strategic moves.

There was a clear, steep drop off once the Bears traded Smith for a second-round pick last year. As much as fans liked Jack Sanborn, the Bears clearly didn’t evaluate the UDFA out of Wisconsin the same way. On Monday, we learned of the team’s intentions to sign Philadelphia’s TJ Edwards and Buffalo’s Tremaine Edmunds — the latter to a rather large deal.

Both are quality starting linebackers who fill not only a position of need, but a position of great importance in the Matt Eberflus defense. The bonus is that, combined, they cost less than Smith and Nick Morrow would’ve in 2023 and the Bears still have a second-round pick from trading Smith.

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