If Matt Nagy switches back to Andy Dalton, it would be a move for the present.

It would place an enormous amount of pressure on Nagy to win games right now, this season.

It would put his job in even more jeopardy than it already has been.

While fans always expect victories, fairly or not, no matter who is under center, the organization paying $10 million to the veteran quarterback certainly would expect results should the coach choose to play that veteran over the future.

If Nagy were to stick with Justin Fields, he could spin 2021 as a rebuilding year. He’d be able to tell ownership they are focusing on the long-term future of the club and that teams don’t typically have success with rookie quarterbacks. (The data on that would overwhelmingly support his argument.) Nagy could even point to last week’s game plan, with the Bears dropping back to pass on just 37.5 percent of their plays, to show the rookie is learning on the fly.

With Dalton, though, there is going to be an expectation that they run an actual, competent NFL offense. And doing so got a lot more difficult last week when David Montgomery had to be helped to the sidelines. It could be said that the Bears need a more accomplished passer without Montgomery and Dalton has completed 73.5 percent of his passes to Fields’ 48.1 percent, with a passer rating 30 points higher. The quick passing game that Dalton executes so well (and Fields not at all) could now be the key to any short-term success.

But as we have seen throughout Dalton’s career, he needs almost as much help to succeed as rookies. If they can’t run the ball well, it doesn’t really matter if Dalton throws a four-yard pass on third-and-10 or if Fields takes a sack.

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After three weeks of the season, two things are unquestionably true:

• Matt Nagy installed an unforgivable game plan against Cleveland and was not able to fix it.
• Matt Nagy was right in that Andy Dalton should be the starting quarterback.

Sunday’s game was among the worst we’ve seen. The backlash against Nagy has been every bit as bad. And that’s fair. There is no excuse for managing just 47 yards and one net passing yard in a league where every single rule change is engineered for more passing, more yards, more points. It’s hard to figure out Sunday is even possible. But is it possible. It happened. And the blame has to be tossed on Nagy’s lap.

But does this season warrant a second look?

The Bears offense is close to the bottom of the league pretty much across the board, but it didn’t start that way. While few are willing to accept that Justin Fields really just may not have been ready, it’s hard to find another legitimate explanation. When Dalton quarterbacked the team, the offense was nothing short of competent. In the 11 drives Dalton served as the primary quarterback, the Bears averaged 43.1 yards, that mark would be good enough for fourth best in the league, according to Football Outsiders.

Yes, you read that right.

The common rebuttal to that is that the team didn’t score enough. And that’s true, their 1.91 points per drive would be just 24th in the league – almost equal with Tennessee.

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Adam Oestmann was a colleague of DBB during our ill-fated period at ChicagoNow. But he’s a writer I’ve always admired and a genuinely good dude. Thrilled to publish his thoughts here.

It didn’t take long after the Bears hired Matt Nagy in 2018 for the media to label him the offensive guru Chicago football fans had been hoping for. The former Chiefs’ offensive coordinator had spent just a single season in that role, and only part of it calling plays. Nevertheless, the Chiefs ranked among the NFL’s best when it came to scoring points that season, finishing sixth in the league, and Nagy, it seemed, was poised to turn the tide in Chicago.

That was 2018.

Three years and into a fourth season later and – when it comes to scoring points at least – Nagy is, statistically, one of the worst offensive head coaches in the history of this franchise. Nagy’s 2019, 2020 and, thus far, 2021 points-per-game rank among the worst for the team. Ever. It would seem the offensive-minded quarterbacks guru the Bears thought they were getting didn’t exist from Jump Street.

Following a three-game losing streak and heading into a Week 10 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings last season, a reluctant Nagy relinquished play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. The Bears went on to lose to the Vikings 19-13, but an interesting thing began to happen that cannot be seen on a stats page: the Bears’ offense seemed to be forming an identity. Finishing the regular season 8-8, the team earned a Wild Card playoff berth before being knocked out by the 12-4 Saints.

Bill Lazor’s calls, it turned out, were good for more than a touchdown per game over Nagy’s (on average). In a league where many games are decided by less, Lazor’s eight points-above-replacement number was significant. If Nagy had been able to find those eight points earlier in the season, his team might have won as many as three more games.

But let’s not get too lost in the weeds.

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Trevor Lawrence is a rookie quarterback. And he’s struggling. But his coach isn’t going anywhere, barring those pesky “health issues” that seem to plague him at 12-month intervals and ultimately land him in a job that pays more money, usually from a university handing out taxpayer cash.

Zach Wilson is a rookie quarterback. And he’s struggling. But his coach isn’t going anywhere because this is his first year on the job and he’s overseeing a massive rebuild project.

Mac Jones is a rookie quarterback. And now he’s struggling too! (Welcome aboard, Mac!) But his is the greatest head coach in the history of the sport and he knows he has to endure the struggles of 2021 for the promise of 2022 and beyond.

Trey Lance is a rookie quarterback. And he’s playing in spurts, even while the starter struggles. But there’s no pressure on the head coach because he’s adored; even if some of us question the level of that adoration.

Justin Fields is a rookie quarterback. And Sunday, in Cleveland, he didn’t even have the opportunity to struggle because the performance of the offense around him was as bad as anything you can find in this league. Coaches. Linemen. Receivers. (Tight ends didn’t get on the field so they’re exempt.) Fields spent the afternoon running for his life. His coach? Let’s just take a few moments to look at the basics.

Offensive Rankings:

• 2018: Yards – 21st, Points – 9th (with a lot of help from the defense)
• 2019: Yards – 29th, Points – 29th
• 2020: Yards – 26th, Points – 22nd
• 2021, through three game: Yards – dead last, Points – one spot from dead last

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It is often difficult to summarize a football game in one sentence.

Sunday’s game was not one of those.

The Bears had no chance to block the Cleveland Browns and subsequently no chance to run a professional offense.

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Offense.

• What do you say about an offensive line that can’t compete? They didn’t struggle at times. They didn’t fail in big moments. They were a noncompetitive group for the duration a football game. The play of the offensive today should confirm to every single Bears fan an unavoidable point: this is not a championship contender, by any means. Teams don’t win championships with lines like this. Hell, teams don’t win nine games with lines like this. This was their worst performances since the Giants beat up Jay Cutler in the Meadowlands many moons ago.
  • Jason Peters trying to block Myles Garrett can’t be a serious approach to an NFL game.
  • Germain Ifedi played his worst game as an NFL lineman.
• There will be a ton of criticism heaped onto the shoulders of Matt Nagy this week and rightfully so. Look no further than the other side of the field to see the improvement possible for a quarterback under the right head coach. Nagy has to prove to this organization that he’s the right guy to coach this quarterback moving forward. And with Exhibit A, the glove didn’t fit.
• A few thoughts on Justin Fields:
  • His “mistake” in the game was not dumping the ball to Marquise Goodwin on the RPO when he rolled left. Could have been a big game. But one has to assume, at that point, he was in “run for my life” mode.
  • Seeing the camera shot from behind Fields made it clear he was wise not to throw the football to his well-covered targets.
  • It just doesn’t seem Nagy’s schemes produce many easy throws. How do you combat a pass rush? End arounds? Screens? Sprint outs? Anything? Don’t tell me those things had no possibility of working when none of them were even attempted.
  • Top of the third quarter, Fields held on when he arm was throttled on a sack. No idea how he did that.
  • Fields will learn which guys he can or can’t outrun but folks have to understand that Fields is a passer first. His eyes are always downfield. He’s not Lamar Jackson and the Bears don’t want him to be that.
• The play didn’t matter but fourth and ten late, Nagy and Castillo left Peters on an island with Garrett AGAIN. How is that even possible? How does any objective observer not look at that play – that play ALONE – and conclude the coaching staff is out of their depth?
• Hey Goodwin, come back for the football.
• 3rd and 2 pitch outs to David Montgomery when you can’t block the edge are insane calls.
• Naked boots with Fields in the red zone are too.

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You gotta love this answer from Justin Fields.pic.twitter.com/iDhpv6HCBS

— BFR (@BearsFilmRoom) September 19, 2021

Justin Fields is now the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears.

Could Andy Dalton come back from injury and find himself on the field? Sure. But it’s highly unlikely. Even Dalton knew, as he watched Fields from the sideline, that he wouldn’t be able to survive an injury as the starter. Fields will start Sunday in Cleveland, start at Soldier Field the week after, and assuming he stays healthy, start every subsequent Bears game for the next decade or more.

And now Matt Nagy has 15 games to prove he’s the right guy to coach him.

It’s a pretty simple enterprise. The Justin Fields that plays January 9th against the Minnesota Vikings has to be an improvement over the Justin Fields that plays September 26th against the Cleveland Browns. And the two men have to develop the kind of working relationship the best coach/quarterback combinations seem to enjoy. If those two things are achieved, Nagy safely stays on as head coach in 2022. If either is in question, the Bears can’t risk wasting a second year of Fields’ rookie contract and will have to move on to a new coach.

The work is there to be done. Fields needs to develop an internal clock on the field, guiding his decisions whether to run or not. He also needs to clean up everything pre-snap, both with his cadences and his protection calls. And Nagy needs to completely reconfigure his offensive approach for Fields, a quarterback who shares almost no traits with the former guy. Fields needs to be on the move constantly. The Bears need to take advantage of his 4.4 speed.

It’s on Nagy now, as he enters the most important three-month period of his coaching life. If he succeeds, he’ll be the coach in Chicago for a long time.

As different as the Chicago Bears offense looked on Sunday night, familiar mistakes and a suddenly leaky defense opened the question on if we should even want Justin Fields to deal with this mess.

The Bears did a lot of things differently and were even good in some aspects. This wasn’t the same as the group that struggled to get past midfield against the Rams a year ago. They actually moved the ball well until it was a two-score game late in the fourth quarter. The running game was exceptional and Andy Dalton was able to find open receivers underneath to keep the chains moving. The veteran quarterback even showed some mobility, running on one first down and scrambling before throwing for another.

The Bears gained 40 more yards than the Rams allowed on a per game basis last year.

Matt Nagy has, in the past, been killed for his unwillingness to be aggressive on fourth downs, but we saw four attempts during this game. Had any of them been successful, the stat nerds would’ve rejoiced.

But they weren’t.

And the same flaws that have killed the offense for four years were still there.

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Yesterday was the breakdown of what the Bears must do to beat the Rams, a team superior to them at almost every facet of the game. The Bears don’t run it better. The Bears don’t throw it better. The Bears don’t stop the run better. The Bears don’t stop the pass better. The 2020 Bears were better in the return game but their kick returner has left town. It is not difficult, at all, to see why the Bears are opening as more than a touchdown underdog on the road.

But hope is not lost.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

But they’re testing me right now. And I’m failing.

Big Night For Nagy, Dalton

To paraphrase the great Hyman Roth, “This is the life they’ve chosen.”

By not giving Justin Fields even so much as the opportunity to win the starting job, Nagy has effectively forced the NBC cameras to cut to Fields with every three-and-out, every Dalton blunder, every quarter that goes by with the offense flailing. No, this group shouldn’t be expected to flourish against unquestionably one of the league’s best defenses, but that doesn’t matter.

Because every time Dalton gets sacked, fans will wonder if Fields could have avoided it.

Every time Dalton checks down, fans will wonder if Fields could have extended the play a few seconds with his mobility and made a big gain down the field.

Every time Dalton throws a ball into the fourth row, fans will wonder if Fields could have used that 4.4 speed to race by the sticks and extend the drive.

Matt Nagy and Andy Dalton don’t need to win Sunday night. But they need a tight, clean performance. They need to look like this offense is heading the right direction. Because the eyes of the football world will be upon them.

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We’re finally talking about football. Two teams playing. Someone keeping score. Results that matter.

This season, the Thursday space will be occupied by a simple concept: how the Bears beat their opponent that week. Friday will fill out the game preview, including off-topic stuff and a prediction. But Thursday will be specific to mapping out a potential journey to victory for the boys from Chicago.

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VDM. (Victory Difficulty Meter)

93.6%.

Victory is highly unlikely.

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What Must the Bears Do on Offense:

• Get Cole Kmet involved early. The Bears aren’t going to surprise anyone with what they do offensively. They don’t have the kind of weapons to make surprise feasible and they have a milquetoast quarterback. But they do have something of a secret weapon in Kmet, a talented player underused during his rookie campaign. If Nagy truly believes he can finally run the Andy Reid offense in Chicago, that requires dynamic tight end play, and the Bears are not getting that from anybody else on this roster. It has to be Kmet. And it has to happen quickly Sunday night.
• Pass to run. The Rams were the third best run defense in the league last season. So for all those fans out there who scream RUN THE BALL every week, this ain’t the week to do it. If the Bears run the ball on early downs and get behind the chains, the Rams pass rush will eat their potato leak soup with multiple spoons. Pass early. Get positive yards. The playbook opens far wider on 2nd-and-5 than 3rd-and-11.
• Play the cleanest game possible. If the Bears lose the turnover battle or commit a dozen penalties they have literally 0% chance to win this game. Despite the babble coming out of Halas Hall, this is still a matchup between the league’s best defense in 2020 and one of the worst offenses. The contest was comical last season. The Bears need a significant improvement for the story to change in 2021.

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The 2021 season probably won’t be one the Bears highlight, but it could be important for determining the future of the franchise. They have an odd mix of veterans and young players, all needing to prove themselves. They have key positions that didn’t have battles, but also don’t have sure things locked in.

We know Justin Fields is ultimately going to be the straw that stirs the drink, hopefully for the next two decades. But the Bears need to determine two things: (a) who will be surrounding Fields and (b) how will they make life easier for the quarterback.

With that, here are the ten most important Bears of 2021, other than Fields, of course.

10. Akiem Hicks

Hicks flashed greatness last year, then seemed to run out of gas.

His job was different last year without Eddie Goldman; teams were able to focus more on him in the running game. But then you’d see the spurt; he’d throw a guard three yards back and take out a running back in the backfield.

Hicks is in a contract year and the Bears have to know what he has left before deciding what to do.

9. Sam Mustipher

Mustipher was a legitimately good center last year and could be a building block going forward. The team didn’t consider replacing him. He needs to reward that confidence.

8. Darnell Mooney

If teams are going to take Allen Robinson away, Mooney needs to make them pay. The wide receiver needs to take a significant step in his sophomore season.

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