SOME STATISTICAL STUFF

• Two quarterbacks will play Sunday at Soldier Field. One has completed 66.1% of his passes for 750 yards and a TD-INT ratio of 8-2. Passer rating? 98.2. The other has completed 62.7% of his passes for 697 yards and a 5-1 ratio. Passer rating of 95.1 Heading into Bears v. Packers, Bears have the quarterback playing at the higher level.
• Through three weeks, the Bears have the league’s sack (Willie Young, 4) and interception (Kyle Fuller, 3) leaders.
• Bears defense has not allowed a second half touchdown.
• Bears offense is 27th in yardage and 9th in points. If you read this site you know how I feel about quantifying offensive performance with yardage gained. It is nonsensical, especially in the current NFL where yards simply aren’t that difficult to gain. How an offense performs in the red zone is how that offense is defined. Points matter. Yards don’t.

ON MATT FORTE’S “STRUGGLES”

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I love golf. And while most golf fans are down on their knees with their mouths in the lap of Augusta National, I am more reserved. I think Augusta is, for the most part, the most self-indulgent sports entity in creation and The Open Championship is my favorite tournament. But I still get excited for the first major championship of the season and it seems a convenient way to put a column together.

Here are nine issues, nine holes, still facing the 2014 Bears.

Hole #1 Tea Olive

The Bears don’t currently have a good safety on the roster. Is it possible Ryan Mundy will thrive at the strong safety position after showing limited flashes in both Pittsburgh and New York? Yes. But ask yourself this question: if Mundy were a budding star, why would the two best run organizations in the sport, both with proud lineages on defense, let him walk out the door?

And while Chris Conte has been the subject of ridicule, he’s a capable free safety if his run-stopping assignments are limited. His lack of availability for the bulk of training camp won’t help build his confidence heading into the 2014 season. I see his days in Chicago numbered.

Hole #2 Pink Dogwood

The Bears will have to win a game or two with Jordan Palmer playing quarterback. History says what history says and history says Jay Cutler will get banged up at some point during the season. Today, that would mean Palmer steps under center.

Side note: I could have written the same thing, with Josh McCown’s name a year ago and it turned out not to be a hole. But McCown at least has a MINOR track record in the sport. Palmer does not.

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Their two quarterbacks threw for 4,450 yards and 32 touchdowns. Their star tailback accumulated just a squidge below 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Their wide receivers established themselves as the best starting duo in the sport. Their offensive line was fourth best in sacks allowed and provided support for the league’s second-leading rusher. (And they did this with a pair of rookies on the right side.) The finished the second 9th in total yards per game and 2nd in points scored – only trailing the insane juggernaut that is Peyton Manning’s Denver Broncos.

While most fans are unable to see the sport of football with any appropriate context, let me provide some. Marc Trestman is a first year head coach with a first year staff. One year was all it took for Trest to establish one of the league’s most prolific offenses right here in the city of Chicago.

These things only get better. Playbooks expand. Offensive lines grow more comfortable. Quarterbacks operate with a developing fluency. Fans around these parts may not understand this concept because Chicago has not – since George Halas roamed the sideline – operated with any discernible offensive system. (I could make a serious argument the T Formation of song was the last time the Bears operated uniquely on offense.) I would expect Matt Slauson and Jay Cutler to be re-signed prior to the start of the league year. I would expect Josh McCown signed, sealed and delivered rather quickly after the league year begins. The 2014 Bears offense should be expected to improve upon 2013’s landmark production.

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You spend a week playing out the scenarios in your mind; how will Team A move the ball, how will Team B fair on third downs…etc. And then you sit in stunned silence as a fumbled football sits on the field and 20 of the 22 NFL players involved in the play pay it no mind. One guy picks it up. The quarterback and sideline tell him to run. Touchdown. We’ll call it The Boykin Fiasco. It is the play everyone will remember for years to come.

Here’s a bunch of thoughts from the afternoon.

• NFL should be embarrassed by the way this game was officiated. What did Clete Blakeman see under the hood that the rest of us did not see on the downed punt at the one yard line? How on earth can the officials call Shea McClellin for unnecessary roughness at that point in the game? I Tweeted it yesterday and I mean it: an official had to WANT to throw that flag to throw it.
• Ultimately the game came down to costly mistakes on the defensive side of the ball. The Boykin Fiasco. Whatever coverage that was on the Packers final play. Chris Conte flat out dropping a game ending interception.
• Julius Peppers flying at Aaron Rodgers on that final play was such a terrible mistake. How do you lose contain there? Oh I know how. You’ve been doing it all season long. (I forgot for a moment the Bears have an awful defense.)
• I was wrong about one thing: If Matt Flynn played yesterday, the Bears win the game easily. Rodgers used his legs quite a bit more than I expected.
• Heck of a game, Matt Forte. Put the team on your back.

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The Bears went for it.

With 7:50 remaining in the game and the Bears leading by four points, Marc Trestman gambled on 4th and inches. He gambled on his offensive line. He gambled on his All-Pro tailback. He gambled that his offense – the best unit of his football team – would have a better chance to finish off the rival Green Bay Packers than his leaky defense and inconsistent specials. He called timeout. He took a breath. Then he gambled.

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