These were pretty damn good a week ago. Let’s see if we can keep it going.

• Caleb Williams is going to throw between 40-50 passes and put together a rarely seen stat line when it comes to the quarterback position for the Chicago Bears, as he nears 400 yards passing.
• Tank Bigsby will have success on the ground, gaining decent chunks on first and second downs, allowing the Jacksonville short passing game to move the chains.
• Bears will counter the Jacksonville edge rushers early by going to the screen game, with D’Andre Swift breaking a big one.
• Cole Kmet: 6 catches, 71 yards, touchdown.
• Jaylon Johnson picks off Trevor at a pivotal moment in the fourth quarter, as the quarterback tries to force a pass to his young star, Brian Thomas.

Chicago Bears 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Caleb Williams, the Winning Haiku

From commenter “Please bear in mine” and I’m not sure I totally understand it but rolling with it anyway.

Ah, competition.
Chasing luck, Winter dance comes,
Mornings, fleeting youth.

Notes on Jaguars v. Colts

• This is a game where the Bears, and Caleb, need to attack the middle of the field with the passing attack. Joe Flacco exploited a ton of space for all four quarters.
• Jaguars are good against the run, currently ranked 8th in the league. The Colts had 34 points in Jacksonville last weekend and didn’t surpass 100 yards on the ground.
• With the Bears struggling against north-to-south rushing attacks, Tank Bigsby could be a real problem for them. Travis Etienne is a more versatile back, but Bigsby runs an awful lot like Chuba Hubbard and Hubbard averaged 7.5 yards per carry at Soldier Field. Watch the physicality Bigsby runs with on his touchdown in the middle of the third quarter. (Etienne is Trevor Lawrence’s quick outlet option, especially when he releases into a vacant space behind the defensive line.)
• Josh Hines-Allen v. Braxton Jones has the potential to be a game-defining battle. Hines-Allen doesn’t leave the right edge position and his burst off the line of scrimmage forced Flacco to release the ball quickly on at least 6-7 important downs. (Trevon Walker is a solid closer on the other side as well.)
• Trevor Lawrence was good to wide open deep options Sunday, but mediocre just about everywhere else.
• Mo Alie-Cox’s stat line for the Colts – 2/37/1 – may not look impressive. But he could easily have had a pair of additional touchdowns with a more accurate Flacco. Is this Cole Kmet’s breakout game in passing attack?

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His name is Trevor.

Seems a very British name.

Well, ‘allo Trevor!

Along Edgware Road,

Montez mangias on shawarma. 

Both white and red sauce.

(Note: Shawarma can be a three-syllable word, but I have never used more than two, so it’s writing in my colloquial.)

A bear in London,

is no werewolf of London.

Still, be wary, Jim.

It’s very hard to analyze a game from inside the building. You really have no idea what’s going on. But here are a few points:

• The building was 80% Bears fans. And the lack of run defense took them entirely out of the game. Bears had zero push up front.
• Charles Leno is officially a problem.
• David Montgomery has to absorb contact almost immediately upon every touch. He’s in an impossible spot back there.
• Chase Daniel processes the field in slow motion. The Bears has open receivers all over the field but Daniel (a)took too long to identify them and (b) almost never put the ball in the right spot. If the backup is playing, the Bears aren’t winning.
• Allen Robinson is a great player.
• Anthony Miller is not. Yet.
• Khalil Mack spends a lot of time on the sideline.
• This was the first time in two years I’ve seen so many wide open receivers running through the Bears defense. Just an off day or did Jon Gruden figure something out?

3-2. One game back of Green Bay. In position to have a season but with A LOT of improvement needed. The bye week comes at a perfect time.

The George Inn. My favorite pub in London.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And they are not losing in London, with Reverend Dave and I in the building, all hopped up on bitter ale.

Trite, Boring Thoughts on the Raiders (Stolen From Data’s Twitter)

Data had a stream of Tweets early in the week but I fear they were lost in the Monday excitement. He is one of the best follows on Bears Twitter and I recommend you give him a follow. Here are his thoughts:

• Derek Carr has been sacked only 8x in 4 games this year. 4th fastest time to throw of any NFL QB, 4th shortest average throw. This feels like a game where the Bears need Roquan Smith, not Nick Kwiatkoski. Gonna be a lot of underneath stuff in coverage.
• In the running game, Oakland runs inside a little more than outside, so in that regard Kwit would fit right in plugging the interior run. When they do run outside, the Raiders heavily favor the right by a 2:1 ratio.
• 2 of Oakland’s 3 most targeted players have among the 15 shortest average target distances among all NFL WRs and TEs. Waller is 4th shortest TE at 4.9 yards/target, and Renfrow 3rd shortest WR at 6.4 yards/target. Together they account for about 45% of all Carr targets in 2019.
• Looking now to Oakland’s defense, this is a game the Bears should find success through the air. Raiders giving up 8.1 yards/attempt (23rd), with 9 TD and only 1 INT for a passer rating of 106.8 (25th).
• Some of that is because Mahomes lit them up, but Flacco and Cousins both posted a passer rating >100 against them, and Brissett threw for 3 TDs. Their pass D is bad, in no small part because they can’t rush the passer (only 5 sacks through 4 games).
• Oakland’s run D is actually pretty solid, coming in at 16th in rush yards/game and 11th in yards/carry.
  • Editor’s Note: Dalvin Cook rushed for 110 on only 16 carries against them.

Tweet of the Week (kinda)

I found this story incredibly moving.

Thirteen children of firefighters who died at the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, and six whose fathers died of 9/11-related illnesses, graduated from the city’s fire department during an emotional ceremony. https://t.co/cG5uJtbt4d

— CNN (@CNN) September 25, 2019

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There is no correlation between performance in early September and performance in January. Bears need to stay healthy on D, get better on O and – most importantly – leave London with a winning record.

Bobby Massie Inks Extension

Many folks around the Bears blogosphere (and beyond) like to DM me when players are negotiating (or thought-to-be negotiating) contracts. There are two reasons for this: (1) They know I have friends inside the building and (2) I’m rarely, if ever, going to publish the information myself before it becomes public. That is why I’m still able to acquire the information I do. But I’m usually happy to confirm stuff.

Here’s what I know about the Massie deal:

• During the season, several people inside the the Bears commented to me that Massie was playing at an outstanding level. Offensive linemen are very difficult for the average fan (and folks like PFF) to evaluate because it’s all about assignment football. When the Bears sat down and did their post-season roster evaluation they determined Massie was going to be impossible to bring back should he hit the open market, especially with tackle-needy teams like Buffalo and the New York Jets having buckets of money to spend.
• The money isn’t a big deal but it values Massie as one of the best right tackles in the sport. I have news for you. He was every bit that in 2018.
• The organization’s attention has now moved to their other in-house free agents: Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan.
  • Amos’ agents are pains in the ass and they passed on an extension last off-season, citing the PFF grades as reason the Bears were low-balling their client. Bears don’t view Amos as a top safety. And they won’t pay him like one.
  • Two things on Callahan: (1) He’s switched to Roquan Smith’s agents. (2) He’s got a chronic hip issue that he’s learned to manage over the last few years but that many inside the organization believe leads to his frequent injuries. The Bears want him back. The locker room loves him. But his health history and position make the deal tricky.

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Top NFL Teams Separated By Merely a Play

Look at the fates of the NFC’s best teams in the month of January.

• Detroit loses to Dallas after a pass interference flag is announced and walked off by the game official and then ludicrously picked up. (Has anybody yet given an explanation of this?)
• Dallas  loses to Green Bay after a Dez Bryant catch – a spectacular catch – is deemed a non-catch by one of the more ludicrous rules in the NFL rulebook. (And in my opinion a gross misinterpretation of that rule.)
• Green Bay loses to Seattle with a ludicrous late-game collapse featuring a tight end dropping an onside kick that hit both of his hands and his face.
• Seattle loses to New England with the worst play-call in the history of professional football, asking a non-pocket passer to pocket pass a tight-window slant route on the goal line, at the death. (And do so with the league’s most physical runner just, you know, standing around.)

In all four of these games a serious argument can be made for the losing team deserving victory. That’s how close the league has become at the top.

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