Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And now that the whole of their fan base has seemingly given up on them, you can see them winning.

Three Things About the Lions

• Detroit allows north of 135 yards per game on the ground, as last year’s mid-season acquisition of Snacks Harrison has turned into a bit of a dud for Matt Patricia and the boys. With the Bears desperate to get back into the win column, I’d be surprised if David Montgomery doesn’t find himself carrying the ball 20+ times Sunday.
• From my buddy and frequent podcast guest Dave Birkett of the Free-Press:

The Lions, by any metric, have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank 31st in total defense, 30th against the pass, 27th in points allowed and 27th against the run. Their takeaway luck has dried up; on Sunday, they didn’t force a punt for the first three quarters.

I don’t know what the answer is to fixing the Lions’ defensive woes, and I doubt it can be now, with no means to acquire effective talent until the spring. They need more pass rush, they need to tackle better, they need their best safety (or two) back on the field, and they need to play with the urgency they showed early in Sunday’s fourth quarter…Part of me thinks we were duped by their strong defensive play down the stretch last season.

• The Lions, by just about every statistical analysis, are one of the most dynamic and diverse passing attacks in the league. (Stafford may be having his best season.) With their talent outside and at the TE position, it all comes down to the Bears pass rush this week. If it plays the way it has the last few weeks the Lions are going to move the ball through the air with ease. This is the week Khalil Mack breaks out. (It better be.)

Tweet of the Week

“Uh, yea hi. Look, we’re gonna need a reprint on the Lions 2020 calendars.” pic.twitter.com/9g7aCDyq2K

— Chris Burke (@ChrisBurkeNFL) November 5, 2019

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We’re just over a quarter of the way through the 2019 season, and the bye week makes it the perfect time to assess where the Bears stand, both as an individual unit and in relation to the rest of the NFC North.

Rivals:

Green Bay Packers

Right now the Packers are the top team in the NFC North. They’re currently 4-1, and 2-0 in the division. Most likely they beat the Lions on Monday and become 3-0, which would be a boon to their playoff hopes. They also have the second easiest remaining schedule in the division.

Both the defense and run game have improved for the Packers, and much of the tension that hung in the air during the end of Mike McCarthy’s tenure seems to have dissipated under LaFleur (despite initial reports that he and Rodgers were clashing). Rodgers isn’t putting up his usual numbers quite yet, but as long as they’re winning, he seems perfectly content with that.

It’s early and a lot can still happen, but it’s quite possible that Week 15 in Green Bay could hold even more significance than usual in the Bears-Packers storied rivalry.

Detroit Lions

The thing about the Lions is, they’re actually kind of good. They’re also still the Lions.

They could very easily be 4-0 right now instead of 2-1-1. They blew a significant fourth quarter lead against the Arizona Cardinals in their season opener that ended in a tie, and they kept pace with Mahomes and the Chiefs right up until the very end of their Week 4 matchup.

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Best place to ring in 2019? #ClubDub! pic.twitter.com/aMcMUUOkS5

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) December 31, 2018

The 2018 Chicago Bears played six games against the NFC North this season. The same number they always play. But these six were different.

Yes, the Bears were 5-1, with a point differential of +44. Yes, they were 3-0 at home, with a point differential of +24. But it was more than the numbers that told the story of these Bears. It was how and when they handled each opponent. Let’s look at them.

• Green Bay Game I set the tone for the entire season. The Bears left Lambeau on the opening Sunday night knowing they should have won, knowing Kyle Fuller should have caught the game-clinching interception, knowing they were the better team. Matt Nagy didn’t let that game bring his team down. He used it as inspiration. It worked.
• Detroit Game I was a bloodbath. The 12-point victory didn’t represent how lopsided the ballgame was. But the result was still important because the Bears had been struggling with the Lions for the last several seasons. No longer.
• Minnesota Game I was the biggest regular season game at Soldier Field in a decade. In primetime the Bears had to prove they were the favorite to win the division. And from a hotel room in Paris, in the middle of the night, I silently watched them do just that.

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The excuses were there and would have been valid.

• No team had played a game on less rest.
• They started a backup QB who hadn’t played extensively in five years.
• They were coming off one of their more emotional wins in recent memory.

But none of that mattered.

I started this season writing about how the Bears looked like the same old Bears and that’s because they did. Blowing a huge fourth quarter lead to the Packers on opening night was very on-brand.

But on Thanksgiving Day, the 2018 Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions despite all the excuses. In doing so, they proved they are a different team. Comparing this year’s Bears to versions of the team under Marc Trestman and John Fox is just ridiculous at this point. This was even a game the Lovie Smith Bears would’ve lost.

This team didn’t. They didn’t need excuses. They just went out and won. Somewhere along the line, the team changed. Somewhere they found their swagger and turned 2018 into something with the makings of a special season.

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Not the most compelling game ever played but the kind of result good teams get. The Bears played three division games in twelve days and went 3-0, outscoring the Lions (twice) and Vikings 82-58.

This three-game stretch solidified them as one of the better teams in the NFC and it would now be a terrible disappointment if there was not a football game at Soldier Field in January. 

Rapid fire…

• Chase Daniel did everything a team can ask from their backup quarterback. He moved the offense. He avoided crippling errors. Was he good? Not really. Even the touchdowns/big plays were not well-thrown balls. But he got the job done. In the modern NFL, teams need a backup QB that can hold down the fort and win some games for 2-3 weeks every season. With Daniel, the Bears have that.
• 3rd and 1. Early second quarter. Stafford rolled to his left and had about six minutes to find an open receiver to move the chains. Why? Khalil Mack was floating in coverage. (And “floating” is the accurate word.) This is what Fangio’s defense is. Understood. But without a healthy Aaron Lynch, and with Leonard Floyd struggling to get to the quarterback, not allowing the game’s best edge rusher to rush from the edge feels negligent.
• As Andrew pointed out on Twitter, the Bears were awful on 2nd and long all game, giving up chunk plays in the air and on the ground. This will be a focal point before they head to the Meadowlands.
• Eddie Jackson has to be in the conversation now for DPOY now. Right now the award is Aaron Donald’s to lose, mostly because of Mack’s earlier injuries, but no defender has made more big plays in 2018 than Jackson.
• Every week Roquan Smith makes another play. And every week it becomes more apparent Smith is going to be in the middle of the Bears defense for a long, long time.
• The running game, or lack thereof, will be a major talking point over the next ten days. But look no further than Matt Nagy’s two-point conversion call to understand why that element is struggling. With an inaccurate backup QB, Nagy called a pass. And not just a pass. A quick, bubble screen that required timing and pinpoint ball placement. Despite what the head coach tells reporters, the answer is simple. The Bears don’t run the ball because the Bears don’t want to run the ball.
• Taquan Mizzell is more valuable to Nagy than Jordan Howard.

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This painting is “Death and the Miser”, Jan Provoost, Flemish primitive. It is on display at Groeninge Museum, Bruges. It is brilliant.

Back in the states today and excited to get back to full-throated coverage of this remarkable playoff push!

Game Prediction

• First ten minutes of this game are essential. Lions will have energy; they always do in this Thanksgiving spot. But the Bears can’t afford to come out slow. If they do they could find themselves down 10-0 quickly. Not insurmountable but also not ideal.
• Lions will be without rookie RB Kerryon Johnson, leaving LeGarrette Blount and Zach Zenner to carry the load. Is this a big deal? Not necessarily in terms of production but possibly in terms of approach. Without Johnson the Lions will become one dimensional in this game quickly. And there are very few QBs in the league capable of beating this defense by throwing it on every down. (WR Marvin Jones also looks like he’ll be missing the game.)
• Short week. Tired legs. Quarterback nursing an injury. This is the week! This is the one! Jordan Howard will be the workhorse. And he’ll be eating some kind of Thanksgiving food on television after the game is over. (I’m just gonna keep writing this. Every week. I don’t care.)
• This game stays close. And Khalil Mack sacks & strips Matthew Stafford late, re-cementing his status as front runner for DPOY.

Chicago Bears 27

Detroit Lions 20

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…and I give thanks for Ryan Pace, Matt Nagy, Mitch Trubisky, Vic Fangio & the whole lot of em.

No Analysis Needed

This is not a particularly difficult football game to analyze. These two teams played less than a fortnight ago and one of the teams, your 2018 Chicago Bears, was clearly better.

But this schedule is brutal for the Bears. Sunday night, against the Vikings, was their biggest game in many-a-moon. It was also their most emotional. Resetting in just three days is nearly impossible. Especially on the road.

This is a tough spot.

The Game Distich

Detroit will be the stage, this stuffing day

Now begins another act of the play!

Tomorrow: Game Prediction!