Kansas City Chiefs 23, Houston Texans 14

• Every Chiefs game looks exactly the same. But one has to imagine that will need to change in the next round if they’ll have a chance to three-peat.

Washington Commanders 45, Detroit Lions 31

• How do the Lions recover from a loss like this? Despite the injuries, they entered Saturday night as nearly 10-point favorites at home against a rookie quarterback. Now, after a humiliating loss, they face an off-season where they could potentially lose both coordinators and faith in their quarterback. Dan Campbell might have the most difficult job to do in the NFL over the next nine months.

Philadelphia Eagles 28, Los Angeles Rams 22

• How do you handicap a game in conditions like that? I think in normal weather, Rams win. But Saquon Barkley and the Eagles offensive line are the most powerful weapons remaining in the postseason.

Buffalo Bills 27, Baltimore Ravens 25

• When full flight, the Ravens felt like the best team in the league this season. But they just lost too many games like this; games they should have won.

4-2 last weekend, losing only the coin flip game between Washington and Tampa and the game everybody lost, Los Angeles at Houston. (Where the hell did that Justin Herbert performance even come from?) Still, a very good start to the postseason and my quest to make some money off the NFL in 2025.

Saturday January 18th – 4:30 PM ET

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

I’m going to lay the points because I think the Chiefs have spent the entire season preparing for this game and what they did in the 2024 regular season is not particularly relevant. I expect Mahomes to look like Mahomes, Kelce to look like Kelce, and Chris Jones is going to make it impossible for CJ Stroud to mount any kind of comeback. It is January. The Chiefs will Chief.

Saturday January 18th – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)

Since the Hail Maryland, which I was lucky enough to witness in person, these are the score differentials of the Washington games: 5, 1, 8, 8, 23, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3. Since November, they rarely win big, and they rarely lose big.

I think Detroit will win this game, and ultimately win the NFC, but this strikes me as game wherein Washington could either (a) score early and keep it close, or (b) score late for the backdoor cover. Because I’ve got multiple working scenarios, I’ll take the points.

Read More …

Thank you.

First, I want to take a few sentences to thank all of those who supported DBB during our annual pledge drive last week. It was our most successful by a significant margin and I take that quite seriously.

It was my intention to take a step back from DBB, to focus my attention on coursework and allow Robert to take the site in a new direction. It didn’t work out. Overwhelmingly I was told the loyal readers of this site did not care for that new direction. When Robert told me he wanted to dial back some of his commitments to the site, I made it clear that that a part-time editor-in-chief was not something I was looking for and I re-took over the site day to day. To say my content has been inconsistent is an understatement. But I’m proud of the good stuff.

DBB will remain under my literary control for the whole of 2025. At the end of the year, I’ll evaluate how things went and debate (with myself, probably out loud in the shower) whether to seek out another editor-in-chief. But for the year to come, enjoy the haikus!

– Jeff

You ain’t lion.

• Caleb is good.
• The defense is not.
• Stop jumping offside when the offense is only trying to get you to jump offside.
• Rome Odunze doesn’t look like a star WR to me.
• Promoting Thomas Brown, as predicted, was very silly.

The holidays.

This week’s schedule at DBB will be tricky over this holiday week.

Tuesday and Wednesday: DBB will be off for the Christmas holiday.

Thursday AM: Bears v. Seahawks game preview will be live.

Thursday PM: Bears v. Seahawks game thread.

Friday: A new short play!

VIKINGS -2.5 v. Lions

The early part of the season has belonged to the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings, the most surprising team in the NFL. But if they lose Sunday, Minnesota will relinquish the top spot in the NFC North and suddenly be thrust into the middle of the best division in the league.

Coming into this season, Detroit was the betting favorite to find themselves representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Last Sunday was bittersweet for the club; they thoroughly humiliated Dallas but lost one of the best defensive players in the league.

Early season NFL games don’t get much better than this. I think the Lions make a statement and realign the conference stars.

Lions 34, Vikings 24

PACKERS -2.5 v. Texans

Matt LaFleur has masterfully kept the Packers above water, even with a temporarily injured quarterback and a temperamental wide receiver. Through six weeks of the season, he’s my coach of the year.

The Texans are 5-1 and look like they’ll have the AFC South locked down well before Macy’s inflates the Snoopy balloon. They bring to Green Bay one of the league’s best pass rushes, but Green Bay might have the best pass protection in the league. If Houston doesn’t win on the edge, they don’t win.

Packers 26, Texans 20

Three More Bets

• STEELERS +1.5 over Jets. Russell Wilson is not an upgrade over Justin Fields, but I don’t think the Jets can block Pittsburgh. Prediction: Tyrod Taylor sees action Sunday night.
• Panthers at COMMANDERS (Over 51.5). If you told me the Commanders scored 50 in this game, I am not sure I would argue with you. Commanders can score in bunches and can’t defend the pass. Feels like a 37-27 kind of game.
• BILLS -8.5 over Titans. Bills v. Jets was one of the worst football games I have ever watched, but the Bills must be flying high after winning a road game wherein they allowed a Hail Mary and missed a bunch of kicks. With the division now firmly in their grasp, they roll at home against Will Levis, the funniest quarterback in the league.

All times ET. Home team in CAPS.

Sunday 3:00 PM – Chiefs at RAVENS (-3)

Those audible cheers

come from the Inner Harbor.

Roquan rejoices.

Sunday 6:30 PM – Lions at 49ERS (-6.5)

They call him “Deebo.”

But his real name is Tyshun.

The Niners need him.

2-2 last weekend, getting shut out on Sunday. This week I’m on the Ravens -3 and the 49ers -6.5. Why? I just think these were clearly the two best teams in the sport and have been destined to meet in Vegas.