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Game Preview: Bears, Packers, 9/11 Pictures & Some Prognostications for the 2023 Campaign

| September 8th, 2023


There will be column writing from me throughout the season, but I am going to relegate most of my work to these game previews. I’m incredibly proud of the consistently excellent work being produced under the Schmitz regime at DBB and I hope I’ll now be able add some of my own flavor to the mix.


Why do I like the Chicago Bears this week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.


Three Things the Bears MUST Do on Sunday

  • Win the ground game.
    • The Bears had one of the league’s best rushing attacks in 2022, while also fielding one of the league’s worst rush defenses. In their two meetings with the Packers last season, they were outgained on the ground 203-180 and 175-155. Matt LaFleur is going to do everything in his power to make Jordan Love’s debut easier and that will include a healthy dose of the run game, putting pressure on Chicago’s weakest unit, their DL. If the Bears can’t slow Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon down, it’s unlikely they’ll slow down the Packers writ large.
  • Catch interceptions.
    • Barring a few nice throws, Love has looked nervous this preseason, and that’s unlikely to change come the opener. When he gives the secondary opportunities, they must take advantage of them. For too many years we have watched the Bears drop easy interception after easy interception, often originating from the right hand of a Packers quarterback en route to the Hall of Fame.
  • Get the fans excited early, and often.
    • This is going to be a Soldier Field ready to celebrate the dawn of a new era and the Bears have to meet the moment. Mount some promising early drives. Get points from those drives. Show that the Chicago Bears are finally ready to join the ranks of modern offensive football. (If the team comes out and runs it unsuccessfully on first and second down to open the game…well…it would be about the most tone-deaf play calling one can recall.) Too often the Bears have sent the home crowd into a lethargic malaise. Big, exciting moments on offense change that.

September 11th on Screen

Paul Schrader argues, in his seminal essay on film noir, that the “genre” is unique to America, and specifically to a post-war period (mid 40s to late 50s) that found a generation of heroic men returning from war to an uncertain future, and unsure identity. But as we commemorate the 22nd anniversary of 9/11 on Monday, it is interesting to look at a series of films made in New York City in the years after those attacks as questioning not only what it means to be a man in a post-traumatic environment, but also what it means to be the city unfairly targeted as representative of a national political identity to which it often did not and does not ascribe.

There are four films I would recommend looking at in this regard.

25th Hour (Spike Lee, 2002)

Unfaithful (Adrian Lyne, 2002)

Michael Clayton (Tony Gilroy, 2007)

Before the Devil Know You’re Dead (Sidney Lumet, 2007)

As this is a topic for a broader research project of mine, I will not wallow in the weeds here. But these are four films that I consider four of the best of this century. If you’re interested in the aforementioned discussion, feel free to email me: jeff@dabearsblog.com.

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Breaking Down The Matchups Within Packers @ Bears

| September 7th, 2023

There’s nothing quite like NFL Week 1, is there?

After months of roster additions, subtractions, and schematic changes, the NFL’s 32 Teams will finally take the field this weekend and show us who’s here to content, who’s here to pretend, and everything else in between.

But between you and me, 15 of the 16 NFL games scheduled for this weekend might as well not exist — the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers this Sunday at 3:25PM in the first game since Aaron Rodgers’ departure and it’s the only game on my mind.

How are the Bears going to attack the Packers’ defense? What are the Packers looking to do on offense? Moreover, who’s going to win? Nick Whalen & I put together a hell of a game preview on today’s episode of Bear With Us, but I wanted to share some of my thoughts in print. Let’s get into it.

Before the Teams Take the Field…

Keep an eye out for the Packers’ official Friday injury report. Explosive Packers WR Christian Watson was listed as a practice non-participant on Wednesday (hamstring injury), and if either he or WR Romeo Doubs (DNP — hamstring injury) can’t play on Sunday Jordan Love will be left throwing to rookies in his first 2023 NFL start.

That may sound like an exaggeration, but it isn’t — with TE Tyler Davis already on IR, Love’s Sunday receiving weapons could consist of:

  • Rookie TE Luke Musgrave
  • Rookie TE Tucker Kraft
  • Rooke WR Jayden Reed
  • 2nd year (7th round pick) WR Samori Toure
  • Rookie WR Dontayvion Wicks, who was limited on Wednesday’s practice with a hamstring injury

The Packers also need OT David Bakhtiari (knee) and EDGE Rashan Gary (knee) to play big roles on Sunday’s game despite injury limitations, which may be difficult for each veteran based on what their bodies can do and where each player is within their recovery timeline.

If I had to guess, I expect one of the Packers’ 2nd year WRs to make it to gameday (likely Doubs, as his hamstring injury occurred before Green Bay’s 3rd preseason game), but the absence of even one 2nd year WR puts tremendous pressure on the Packers’ rookies to carry the offensive load on Sunday. And, as we’ve learned, featuring rookies can be a scary prospect.

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If Not Now, When?

| September 5th, 2023

In my 15 years as a Bears fan, I have seen the Chicago Bears sweep the Green Bay Packers once.

One single season. Across Fifteen years.

Since Aaron Rodgers took over at Quarterback, Green Bay has consistently throttled Chicago — the Packers have won a staggering 26 out of 31 contests and have left the Bears with a lower win percentage vs Green Bay in that span (16.12%) than Chicago finished with in a last-place 2022 season (17.65%).

As a matter of fact, Chicago enters this weekend’s game with two concurrent losing streaks against the Green Bay Packers:

  • The Bears are 0-8 in their last 8 games against Green Bay
  • The Bears are also 0-8 in their last 8 September matchups against the Packers

Thus, if you’ve ever felt like Chicago simply couldn’t beat Aaron Rodgers, you were right.

But Chicago doesn’t face Aaron Rodgers this weekend.

After more than a decade of dominance, a new face now leads Green Bay. Jordan Love has taken the reigns at Quarterback, and he brings with him a wildly young offensive skill core with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

There are virtually no expectations for this Packers team, save that the young guns develop on offense, but that’s not to say they’re without talent — with high-pedigree draft picks like Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave, and Jayden Reed, the 2023 Packers are a dangerous team. But, as of the time of writing this article, they’re also as weak as they’re likely to be this year.

The Packers’ starting CB2, Eric Stokes, will open the 2023 season on the PUP list. Tyler Davis, GB’s veteran TE3, will start the season on IR and force rookie Luke Musgrave into a starting role early.

2nd year possession receiver Romeo Doubs tweaked his hamstring and missed the Packers’ final preseason game. Star EDGE rusher Rashan Gary tore his ACL in 2022’s Week 9 and, though he’s slated to play in Week 1, will assuredly lack some measure of explosion for at least a few more months.

This Packers team is young, untested, and banged up. If Chicago can’t beat them now, when will they?

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Chicago Bears 2023 Season Predictions

| September 4th, 2023

With the Chicago Bears’ 53-man roster set for Sunday’s Bears-Packers game, it’s finally time we talk through 2023 Season Predictions — on the latest episode of the Bear With Us podcast, that’s exactly what Nick and I do.

In a Monday morning mega-show, Nick and I talk through every Bears 2023 topic possible in lieu of this weekend’s season kickoff:

  • What will Chicago’s overall record be?
  • Which games will Chicago win? Which games will they lose?
  • Where in the Bears’ schedule are there natural rest advantages over opponents? Are there any disadvantages to watch for?
  • What should we expect from Fields in 2023? And what constitutes a “good” season from him?
  • Who do we have our eyes on defensively?
  • What would be a good year for Eberflus’ 2023 defense?
  • And much, much more…

Start your week right with the latest episode of Bear With Us — now available in both video & audio forms. Give it a listen/watch and let me know what you think!

Podcast Form:

Note: Video Form is available after the ‘jump’

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Breaking Down Justin Fields’ Saturday Afternoon

| August 28th, 2023

Justin Fields played 13 snaps in a preseason game, and because his offense had the nerve to look rusty many on social media, of course, went haywire.

With that in mind, let’s break down all 13 of his snaps — in this video, you’ll see:

  • Improved post-snap process
  • The most vanilla passing calls you’ll find
  • Physical mistakes throwing the ball
  • Much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!



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Justin Fields’ Rushing Puts Him In Strong Historical Company

| August 23rd, 2023

In doing research for an upcoming project, I stumbled upon an interesting set of correlations within Fields’ rushing data — as you may know, Justin Fields led the NFL in 2022 with 7.1 Yards/Rush, the best figure of any player since 2014 (assuming a minimum of 100 carries).

That 2014 leader was Russell Wilson, who led the league with 7.2 Yards/Rush. But it’s what Wilson did in the season after 2014 that we care about — in 2015, Russ threw for his first 4,000 yard passing season and never stepped back after doing so.

Wilson’s production (specifically Touchdowns, Y/A, and Total Passing Yards) improved in 2015 because defenses couldn’t allow Russ to run freely and thus sacrificed defenders in coverage to cover him, and obviously we’d love to see the same from Justin Fields in 2023. But, interestingly enough, Wilson’s sack rate remained one of the worst in the league even as he took that 2015 step forward.

Russ was always one to take plenty of sacks, including a 2nd-year season where he recorded a 9.8% sack rate, but seeing his 2014 sack rate (8.5%) repeat in his 2015 season (8.5% sack rate) is a reminder that even if Fields takes a step forward as a passer he’ll continue to take an inordinate amount of sacks compared to his peers. That said, if Fields throws for 4,000+ yards and 34 TDs? I don’t know how much anyone will complain about 45-50 sacks.

But Russell Wilson is just one name — across the league, how successful are QBs that run well?

Surprisingly, the list of NFL QBs that have led the league in Yards/Rush is a list filled with talent:

  • Josh Allen (2021)
  • Lamar Jackson (2019, 2020)
  • Russell Wilson (2014)
  • Robert Griffin III (2012)
  • Cam Newton (2011)
  • Michael Vick (2002, 2004, 2006, 2010)
  • Randall Cunningham (1990)

Of this list, only Randall Cunningham (1990) and Michael Vick (2004 & 2006) topped Fields Yards/Rush figure of 7.1 Y/R.

Correlation doesn’t equal causation, but if a QB leads the NFL in this category and stays healthy long-term they historically tend to be good players. Just how good you think the list’s QBs are depends on your perspective on players like Cam Newton (lack of longevity), Lamar Jackson (passed for 3,000+ yards exactly once, though BAL hasn’t helped him), and Michael Vick (never passed for 3,000+ yards in Atlanta), but for a city like Chicago that’s been starved of serviceable QB play for years I’d take the floor that comparisons like Cam Newton impart if it gives me a chance at a ceiling like Josh Allen or Russell Wilson.

With DJ Moore, OL upgrades, a renewed Chase Claypool, boosts at TE, and a second year in the offense, who knows? Maybe Justin Fields’ “Russell Wilson 2015” season is just around the corner. We’ll have to wait and see.

Your Turn: Do you see Justin Fields as more Russell Wilson or Michael Vick?

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Reviewing Titans @ Bears: Let’s talk Offense

| August 15th, 2023

Today we pick up where we left off yesterday as we break down Saturday’s offensive standouts. Without further ado, let’s dive in.

Editor’s Note: Check back with this article throughout the day — as I produce more All-22 cutups, I’ll update this article to include more analysis 

Carter Cruises:

  • On a day where Justin Fields didn’t throw an incomplete pass and DJ Moore scored his first touchdown in Chicago, who would’ve guessed that the man wearing #69 would’ve been one of the brightest stars on the offense? Ja’Tyre Carter showed off great footwork in both the run and pass game, great hand usage as a pass-protector, and an extra helping of violence as a combo blocker that led to a few destructive finishes.
    • Nothing dismantles an NFL offense like injuries on the offensive line, so a depth lineman like Carter playing well is the best possible thing that could’ve happened over the weekend. Time will tell if his positive play was a product of legitimate growth as a player (rather than a product of playing the Titans 2nd & 3rd string), but his game against Tennessee was a drastic step up from his late-year showing and that’s exactly what you want to see out of a second-year player.

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After Months Of Waiting, It’s FINALLY A Chicago Bears Football Monday

| August 7th, 2023

Football is back this weekend, baby! Thank goodness!

Since it’s impossible for us to know what players & teams are working on during camp sessions, “evaluating” the videos we see from practice (especially the videos from practices without pads) feels rather silly. Thus, after reading Training Camp reports for ~2 weeks, I’m ready to watch downs where the stats get recorded.

The Preseason may not count towards the Bears’ overall record, but it’s full of:

  • Padded Reps
  • In a game-like setting
  • Where we can assume that players all over the roster are going to try their best to win each down (as opposed to workshopping new techniques that they haven’t yet readied via practice)

That’s not a perfect recipe for glimpsing the future of the 2023 Bears’ season, but it should be more than the scraps we get through Twitter X on the day-to-day.

The players seem to take the preseason seriously (well, as seriously as you can take a team you aren’t game-planning for) as evidenced by the comfortable play of QBs like Patrick Mahomes preseason (222 yards and 3 TDs while completing 18 passes on 26 attempts), Tua Tagovailoa (179 yards and 1 TD while completing 15 passes on 16 attempts), Geno Smith (256 yards and 0 TDs while completing 39 passes on 45 attempts), and plenty of other QBs where strong preseason showings very quietly signaled good things to come.

Don’t take the above paragraph too seriously, preseason performance certainly isn’t a sure thing, but this time of year is all about fun anyways — let’s have some this weekend!

I can’t wait to see what surprises Saturday afternoon has for us. Will Chase Claypool carry his camp dominance into the game? If the starters don’t play, does that mean multiple series of Tyler Scott, Ja’Tyre Carter, and other young guns? At which position (and when in the game) will Terell Smith get his first reps? My mind is racing just thinking about the possibilities.

To Help Pass The Time…

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DJ Moore Is A Very Good Wide Receiver And I Can’t Wait To See Him Play

| August 3rd, 2023

Based on reports from around Chicagoland, the offense struggled in yesterday’s practice — so much so that Justin Fields mentioned in his presser that “It’s really good to have days like this.” and that in his opinion it’s good for the offense to go through adversity in these early stages of training camp.

Here’s my issue: I don’t want to wet blanket everyone else’s wet blanket attitude, but we’re talking about football practice. This builds on Tuesday’s article, but the toughest part about this time of year is how much we, as outside observers, could never know about what’s going on in practice.

Is Justin Fields working with new throwing mechanics for the first time? Is Fields going out of his way to force tighter-window throws than usual in effort to get comfortable on gotta-have-it throwing downs? Would he have attempted these throws if he wasn’t wearing his red jersey? If he would’ve, does that make the practice picks (that many NFL pundits think are a consistent sign of pushing limits in Training Camp) better or worse?

Personally, this week has felt full of unnecessary hand-wringing by anxious Bears fans — I get it, we’re all dying to know whether Justin Fields has taken that elusive QB “next step” or not, but unfortunately we’re going to see our answer displayed on the practice field over the next few weeks.

Procedurally, I like hearing that the Bears are working Fields as a pure passer (sounds as if they aren’t letting him scramble in 11-on-11 or 7-on-7 drills and the defense isn’t leaving a spy to cover him, which tests Fields’ arm as much as possible) and trust that they’re doing all they can to help him succeed at all levels. Whether he does or not is up to him.

In the meantime, I treated myself to a bit more of DJ Moore’s tape and had a lot of fun digging up gems. Here’s a few of my favorites:

1. DJ Moore is the whole package as a WR, and on this route he:

  • Beats his CB across his face
  • Powers through contact as he releases
  • Bursts downfield before recognizing the pass is underthrown
  • Stiff-arms his DB downfield to subtly push off and create a football-sized bucket for Darnold to throw into, which he collects for the TD.

He’s the real deal, should be fun next year.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1686412508934840320

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Self-Scouting Luke Getsy’s 2022 Play Calling

| August 2nd, 2023

The Bears’ offense was one of the worst in the NFL in 2022 for a variety of reasons. I have already highlighted issues with personnel on the offensive line, running back, and wide receiver, and looked in depth at some of the ways quarterback Justin Fields struggled in his sophomore campaign.

Today I want to take a closer look at play caller Luke Getsy to see what we can learn about how he masked and/or contributed to Chicago’s struggles. With that in mind, I looked at how Chicago’s play calling compared to the rest of the NFL at difference down and distance scenarios. All statistics are from Pro Football Reference’s Game Play Finder.

Two quick important notes:

  • In order to keep game situation from skewing the data, I only looked at the first three quarters.
  • I also explored data only between the 20s to avoid field position impacting the play calls and how defenses played.

1st Down

Let’s start with a look at 1st down, which is about the most neutral situation an offense can be in. The table below shows how frequently and effectively the Bears ran and passed the ball compared to their NFL peers. Chicago’s rank is shown, and any values in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while those in the bottom 25% are highlighted in red.

A few thoughts:

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