This piece looks at how Fields’ performance changed as his rookie season wore on. All stats are from Pro Football Focus (PFF) unless otherwise noted.

General Overview

Let’s start with a general look at Fields’ stats over the course of the year. A few quick notes:

• They are split into three groupings (Weeks 2-5, 6-8, and 9-15), because each group showed some clear distinctions compared to earlier games that I’ll point out below.
• The first and third groups were considered to be 3.5 games for the per-game stats, because Fields played about half of the Cincinnati (Week 2) and Baltimore (Week 11) games.
• Basic passing statistics are shown in blue, basic running statistics in orange, and advanced passing style statistics in green. Basic stats are from Pro Football Reference; advanced stats are from Next Gen Stats.

A few thoughts:

• Those first 3.5 games of Fields’ career were rough. He only completed 50% of his passes, got sacked on 17% of dropbacks, and threw into tight coverage (aggressive throw) over 25% of the time. Basically, he didn’t really know what he was doing. It’s fair to think that being thrown into the fire after the coaches went out of their way to NOT PREPARE him to play during training camp and the preseason hurt him in that regard.
• Starting in Week 6, there are three drastic changes in how Fields operated that made me group these games differently.
  • The first is that the Bears started relying on him a lot more, which you can see by the big jump in dropbacks/game (includes all pass attempts, sacks, and Fields runs, which were mostly scrambles).
  • In the midst of this heavier usage, you can see Fields running the ball far more often and more effectively, which resulted in his sack rate dropping a bit (though it was still high, the league average was 6%).
  • You can also see Fields’ throws into tight coverage drop significantly, which indicates he was doing a better job of finding open players to throw the ball to.
• All three of those Week 6 changes continued throughout the rest of the year, but two more significant factors changed starting in Week 9, which caused me to group those final games separately.
  • First, Fields’ yards/attempt mark made a significant jump. It had been fairly steady in the first two samples but was drastically different in Weeks 9 and beyond. This wasn’t driven by just one game, either; three of Fields’ four outings in weeks 9+ featured a yards/attempt greater than 7, a feat which he had only accomplished once in his first 7 games.
    • For a little more context, Fields’ 6.3 yards/attempt mark through Week 8 would have been 28th of 33 QBs with 200+ pass attempts in 2021, while that 7.8 mark would rank 5th.
  • Second, Fields’ time to throw took a massive jump as well. Through Week 8, he was around league average in that 2.75 second range, while the 3.15 seconds he averaged from Week 9 on would have been the highest in the NFL in 2021.
    • Holding the ball too long can be a problem, as it opens you up to sacks, but Fields’ sack rate dropped here. He even threw it into tight coverage less frequently.
    • Coming out of college, Fields was known as a guy who holds the ball and likes to push it deep. In those final few games of his rookie year, we see him figuring out how to make that style work. That bodes very well for the future.

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This piece will examine how frequently Fields was pressured, who was to blame for that pressure, and how Fields performed when under pressure. All stats are from Pro Football Focus (PFF) unless otherwise noted.

Pressure Frequency

Fields was one of the most heavily pressured QBs in the NFL as a rookie. PFF had him pressured on 43% of dropbacks, the 3rd highest rate of 39 qualifying NFL QBs (34% median, 45% worst). Pro Football Reference, which is more selective with what they consider a pressure, had him at a 27% pressure rate, the 5th highest mark in the NFL (23% median, 31% worst).

The table below shows how much of the pressure for each QB PFF blamed on each position. Fields’ stat is provided, and his rank compared to the other 39 QBs, as well as the range of the other qualifying QBs.  Cells where Fields ranked in the top 10 are highlighted in green, while cells where Fields ranked in the bottom 10 are highlighted in red.

A few thoughts:

• By and large, Fields was not particularly to blame for the pressure he faced. PFF only credited him with being responsible for 13% of his pressures, which was the literal middle of the pack for the 39 QB sample.
• Pressures may not have been his fault, but many sacks were. Fields allowed 24% of his pressures to turn into sacks, which was the 6th worst mark in the NFL (median 17%). This matches Lester Wiltfong’s Sackwatch series, which blamed Fields for 9 of the 36 sacks he took in 2021. If you go back and look at the film breakdown for those (which Lester does for all of them), the majority came when the initial pressure was not his fault, but then Fields could have gotten the ball out or escaped and didn’t.
• In general, the pass blocking from the offensive line ranged from average to below average (again, 20th is the middle of a 39 QB sample). Two spots stood out from that: right guard was pretty good (it’s worth noting RG James Daniels is a free agent) and center was pretty bad. Sam Mustipher has to be upgraded this offseason.
• It’s a small sample size, but the tight ends allowed a high rate of pressure compared to other QBs. When looking at tight ends, PFF had Cole Kmet ranked 43rd and Jesse James 30th in rate of pressures allowed out of 68 total qualified tight ends, which is around average for both, so I’m not sure what happened here. Maybe it’s a small sample size thing, where the tight ends gave up most of their pressures when Fields was in at QB (as opposed to Dalton or Foles).
• I think sample size with running backs (the majority of the other) was probably an issue too. PFF had David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert 25th and 23rd, respectively, in rate of pressures allowed out of 64 qualified running backs, which is a little above average but nothing spectacular.

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Today is the second of seven articles taking a closer look at Justin Fields’ rookie season, looking at how his performance fared in play action vs. standard dropbacks and also how he performed throwing quick passes as opposed to slow-developing plays. All stats are from Pro Football Focus (PFF) unless otherwise noted.

Play Action

Let’s start by looking at how Justin Fields did on play-action dropbacks compared to standard passing plays. Before I present the full data, I want to briefly explain two PFF stats that will be used:

• Big Time Throw: these are best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window. In other words, these are really good, difficult passes that should result in highly valuable big plays. A higher % here is better.
• Turnover Worthy Play: These include fumbles in the pocket, interceptions thrown, and interceptable passes that were not caught. A lower % here is better.

Both of these stats will admittedly have some subjectivity inherent, but they provide a useful glimpse into how frequently a QB makes a really good play vs. a really bad one.

The table below shows how Fields performed in a wide variety of statistics in play action (blue) vs. other dropbacks (orange), and also includes Fields’ rank out of 39 total NFL QBs who had at least 20% of the pass attempts of the NFL leader. Information on the spread of all NFL QBs is also provided for each stat. Cells highlighted in green indicate Fields was among the top 10 QBs in this category, while those in red indicate Fields was in the bottom 10 QBs.

A few thoughts:

• Fields’ accuracy and completion percentage were very poor in both samples, but that is to be expected given his accuracy issues, which we looked at in part one of this series. Relatively speaking, he was a little better in play action than out of play action here.
• We also see consistency in Fields pushing the ball down the field regardless of the play time. His average pass was the 3rd deepest in regular passes and the deepest on play action. This is also expected given what we’ve already looked at. Fields likes to go deep.

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Introduction

Justin Fields’ rookie season is over, which means it’s time to evaluate how he did, as well as what it could mean for his career going forward.

Let’s start with a look at the basic stats, which are shown in the table below. In order to give these some more context, I looked at all 33 NFL QBs who had 200 or more pass attempts this year, gave you a feel for the spread of those 33 QBs in each category, and provided Fields’ rank. Cells highlighted in green indicate Fields was in the top 10 for that category, while those highlighted in red indicate Fields was in the bottom 10.

As you can see, this isn’t pretty. Fields ranked in the bottom 5 in every category except yards per passing attempt. It’s definitely a good thing that a quarterback is among the worst in the NFL at completing passes, throwing touchdowns, avoiding interceptions, and avoiding sacks, right? RIGHT?

If you followed the Bears at all closely this year – which I assume applies to most people who read this website – this shouldn’t come as a surprise to you. Fields definitely had his rookie struggles, and we very much see that reflected in the big-picture statistics here.

All in all, I think it’s hard to paint a picture that Fields’ rookie season was anything other than a disappointment. If you had asked me in August if I’d be happy with Fields posting a rookie stat line of 159/270, 1870 yards, 7 TD, 10 INT, 36 sacks, and 12 fumbles, I would have said “no” without even having to think about it. If you’re being honest with yourself, you would have said the same.

But that doesn’t mean Fields’ rookie season was a complete loss. Though the overall results were abysmal, there were some flashes of good present as well, and there are plenty of signs of promise to be found if you’re willing to look. QB play is complicated, and sometimes raw statistics don’t tell the entire story.

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While some voices around the Chicago Bears have lost their voices shouting IT STARTS AT THE TOP, the Cincinnati Bengals serve as a reminder that, in reality, it starts under center.

Sunday, the Bengals have a chance to win their first Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. They’re doing this after winning a combined six games in the 2019 and 2020 seasons. They have the same coach, the same coordinators, a six-person front office and the cheapest owner in the sport. Yet here they are. Because now they have a Joe Burrow.

The Bears have a chance at a similar turnaround, but Justin Fields will need to make a similar leap.

The Bears offseason and coaching search was seen as something that would be centered around Fields. Fans clamored for an offensive head coach who could, in theory, “develop” Fields into an elite quarterbacks. But NFL coaches don’t make bad quarterbacks good, or good quarterbacks great. That is left mostly up to the player himself. (The 2011 CBA limited the amount of time coaches have with players in the offseason.) Mike McCarthy used 10-hour days to help refine Aaron Rodgers’ mechanics, but that is no longer possible in the current NFL. Quarterbacks have had to rely on personal coaches to refine their mechanics. It’s what Josh Allen credits for his development.

Chicago has been criticized for hiring a defensive head coach with a first-time offensive coordinator and an inexperienced QB coach. In all, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko have just three years total working with quarterbacks. John DeFilippo had 11 himself as a coordinator or QB coach, Bill Lazor had 12 and Matt Nagy had nine. The Bears went from a team of expert QB coaches — who had gotten MVP-caliber seasons from the likes of Alex Smith, Nick Foles and Carson Wentz — to an unknown.

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The Press Conference.

It was what Justin Fields said. And what Justin Fields didn’t say.

What he said:

“I think last year was kinda weird, just me not starting the season being the starting quarterback. It was kind of a weird leadership role. I think me and Andy would kind of switch off. But now that I am starting off the season as a starting quarterback, I think I’ll be more comfortable playing that leader role. There’s no more, ‘Oh, he’s a rookie, this and that’. It’s tie now, so I’m excited like I said before and I can’t wait to get to work.”

What he didn’t say:

“I should have been the quarterback from day one last season. And I wasn’t the quarterback from day one last season because the last coach didn’t have the slightest clue what he was doing. But he’s gone now. And so, we rejoice.”

In 2015, when John Fox was announced as the new head coach of the Chicago Bears, Jay Cutler was not in the room. He did not speak to the media. In 2018, when Matt Nagy was introduced, Mitch Trubisky was nowhere to be found. But Monday, after Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus addressed the media, Justin Fields sat on the dais and spoke, at length. The owner had spoken. The GM had spoken. The head coach had spoken. And now it was the quarterback’s time. That is the hierarchy of every NFL team and Monday, for the first time, Fields ascended into that structure.

And he knew it.

The start of something special. pic.twitter.com/hVO3Su6g8I

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) February 1, 2022

The Future.

Fields’ comments mirrored everything reported about the kid since his time at Ohio State; an immense talent complemented by a tireless work ethic and an understanding of where he struggles on the field. Larry Mayer of ChicagoBears.com wrote an excellent column, detailing Fields’ excitement for the future with this new leadership in place.

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A neighborhood friend of mine has been in the upper echelon of several NFL organizations, including in his current role. I texted him three questions regarding the Bears GM opening. His answers are below, corrected for grammar (with his approval).

____________________

Question One: Generally speaking, how good is this job?

Great. In the last month, about twenty personnel guys around the league have asked me what I thought was happening with Ryan. That’s why I finally asked you. [I believe this was the first time he ever asked me for information.] The job comes with a lot of scrutiny but if you win, that’s your legacy. And because they sadly have not won often, the job has more long-term value than say Pittsburgh or Green Bay.

____________________

Question Two: Is Justin Fields viewed as an asset?

I’m a fan. And I know a lot of other guys are too. Just knowing you don’t have to deal with that position for a couple years while you build a roster is something that candidates will find very attractive.

____________________

Question Three: Without studying the Bears, where would you start?

I think the Bears have a lot of players that are “good enough” at key positions. But they need more blue chippers. How many do they have on that offense? Montgomery. Mooney has potential. That’s it right now. You need like five of those guys on both sides of the ball these days. The Bears have never, really for decades, been a team you line up against and fear them putting 40 on you. That has to change.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And it’s only one week so why not?

What Positives Can We Take Away From the 2021 Season?

This season was not without promising developments, and some of those developments came at key positions. Let’s take a moment to accentuate the positives.

• Fields Flashes.
  • All that should have mattered in 2021 was Fields. And we saw plenty that portends a future star in the league. There is still a long way to go for the young quarterback, but that journey could be a fun one for Bears fans.
• Young Tackles.
  • Can Jenkins and Borom bookend this offensive line for years to come? It’s possible. And that possibility is incredibly exciting.
• David Montgomery/Khalil Herbert/Darnell Mooney/Cole Kmet.
  • The Bears still need explosive weapons on the offensive side of the ball, but the pieces are falling into place. (And for those super critical of Kmet, ease up. He’s a kid. And in a productive offense he’s going to be a productive piece.)
• Robert Quinn’s Dominance.
  • The Bears enter the 2022 season with one of the sport’s best pass rushes, barring a trade. (And the only way the Bears should trade Quinn or Khalil Mack is if they’re getting significant return.)
• Jaylon Johnson.
  • Johnson has not only emerged as a top corner but his comments late in the season, questioning the integrity of the folks around him, show he possesses the leadership qualities this secondary desperately needs. But Johnson won’t realize his full potential until a second corner emerges on the other side.
• Roquan.
  • This is – simply stated – one of the best defensive players in the league and the kind of talent you build a defensive roster around.

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Being a beat writer for a losing team is a tough gig. (Nobody has perfected the skill better than Dave Birkett in Detroit.)

In this age where your journalistic value is determined by click totals and uniques, the beats are almost forced to treat meaningless games like they have meaning. Monday night’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings had plenty to discuss but the result really didn’t matter. Still, there were positives to be taken from the game.

Positive #1. Justin Fields.

Fields made plenty of rookie mistakes, which is not surprising because he’s a rookie. (He’s still trying to extend the extendable play and putting the football on the ground too much.) But he also flashed all the traits that give so many fans optimism around Chicago: short memory, remarkable speed, deep accuracy, cannon arm, etc. Fields is playing in an incoherent offensive system, surrounded by one of the worst collections of skill guys in the sport. The arrow is pointed decidedly up.

Positive #2. Thomas Graham Jr.

What a debut! Graham made plays all over the field, including a brilliant PBU in the endzone right after Matt Nagy’s sideline penalty.

Thomas Graham Jr : 7 tackles & 3 pass breakups (NFL debut. 6th round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft) pic.twitter.com/9khneph5Jh

— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) December 21, 2021

There is reason to be very excited but let’s see this kid on the field, non-stop, for the final three games of the season.

Positive #3. Teven Jenkins

Jenkins actually played a fine game against one of the league’s premier pass rushes. But it was the personal foul penalty, defending his quarterback, that landed with the most important player in the locker room.

Justin Fields said he liked what Teven Jenkins did after he took a shot near the sideline.

“I liked him sticking up for me. That’s what I think we need more of.”

— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) December 21, 2021

If the Bears can see good things from Jenkins and right tackle Larry Borom over these final weeks, they can be in a terrific position upfront going into 2022.

Positive #4. Roquan Smith, James Daniels, Darnell Mooney

This the kind of young core that will excite prospective coaches.

• Roquan continues to be one of the best inside linebackers in the league, as dynamic in space as he is in run support. He’s always had the athletic ability but what’s really become obvious is how intuitively he now plays the position. He’s sniffing out plays pre-snap routinely; the mark of the elite inside backers.
• Daniels is playing like a top guard and is the anchor of the team’s terrific running game. Hard to believe he won’t be receiving a lucrative extension to stay in town.
• Mooney is a winning piece in a logical offense. (Hell, he’s a solid piece in this offense.) Why the Bears, with their complete dearth of top skill players, don’t make sure Mooney touches the ball ten times a game, is beyond me. (But that’s a sideline problem, not a player problem.)

Positive #5. Pat O’Donnell had a 72-yard punt.

That is all.

When Fields trusts what he sees and let’s it rip, it’s a thing of beauty. Once he learns to step up vertically in the pocket and escape through it instead of around it, he’s going to be even more dangerous.

Ridiculous potential.

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) December 21, 2021

The rest of it doesn’t matter.