You spend a week playing out the scenarios in your mind; how will Team A move the ball, how will Team B fair on third downs…etc. And then you sit in stunned silence as a fumbled football sits on the field and 20 of the 22 NFL players involved in the play pay it no mind. One guy picks it up. The quarterback and sideline tell him to run. Touchdown. We’ll call it The Boykin Fiasco. It is the play everyone will remember for years to come.

Here’s a bunch of thoughts from the afternoon.

• NFL should be embarrassed by the way this game was officiated. What did Clete Blakeman see under the hood that the rest of us did not see on the downed punt at the one yard line? How on earth can the officials call Shea McClellin for unnecessary roughness at that point in the game? I Tweeted it yesterday and I mean it: an official had to WANT to throw that flag to throw it.
• Ultimately the game came down to costly mistakes on the defensive side of the ball. The Boykin Fiasco. Whatever coverage that was on the Packers final play. Chris Conte flat out dropping a game ending interception.
• Julius Peppers flying at Aaron Rodgers on that final play was such a terrible mistake. How do you lose contain there? Oh I know how. You’ve been doing it all season long. (I forgot for a moment the Bears have an awful defense.)
• I was wrong about one thing: If Matt Flynn played yesterday, the Bears win the game easily. Rodgers used his legs quite a bit more than I expected.
• Heck of a game, Matt Forte. Put the team on your back.

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I have gone back and forth on the meaning of day’s division title contest for Jay Cutler. Part of me thinks it’s the game that will define his Bears tenure to this point and set the tone of his relationship with the fans moving forward. Part of me thinks while it’s an important game, it is only Cutler’s eleventh start in this new system and Cutler should not be expected to be Aaron Rodgers…yet. As the game has gotten closer I am leaning towards the former. I think the folks saying today is the biggest regular season of Jay Cutler’s career are dead right. I hope his play, his intensity, his decision making, reflect that.

Enjoy sixty minutes for the division crown.

Photo from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

While the national media wanted to turn Sunday night’s debacle into a Jay Cutler debate (they failed), those of us who’ve watched every snap of this Chicago Bears season know better. The Bears as currently constructed and currently performing can’t beat an opponent they trail by 14-21 points. Why? Because two things have to happen for a team to eradicate a deficit that wide: they have to stop the run and they have to create turnovers. But the Bears are so bad at stopping the run the opponent never needs to throw the ball and thus the opportunity for turnovers does not present itself.

So with a defense so incapable of stopping the run…and the pass, for that matter…

Why do I like the Chicago Bears this week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

FIRST, A RODGERS THOUGHT OR TWO…

• I know he’s a remarkable player but his playing Sunday does not drastically impact my opinion on the game. I thought Matt Flynn and the Packers offense would have continual success moving the ball down the field on the Bears defense. How many more points does Rodgers create? 7-10? At most? Well I’ve got them in the 30s already…

BUT WHAT FOOTBALL REASONS, JEFF?

• Bears defense since the bye week (and the Briggs/Tillman injuries that proceeded it) has not been bad at home in the least. They lost to Detroit, giving up only 21 points. They beat Baltimore, giving up only 20 points. They thrashed Dallas, giving up 28 points and 7 of those on a last-minute Kyle Orton drive that seemed to define garbage time. Their road form has been abysmal but this contest is at Soldier Field.
• Packers are 1-2 on the road since the Rodgers injury, beating only the Cowboys in one of the NFL’s greatest collapses. In those three road games they’ve allowed 103 points.

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“I think this is almost the perfect scenario to find out once and for all if Cutler is our QB.”

-4ever85 (AKA Butch Deadlift)

The Bears turned in their worst performance of the 2013 campaign, a three-phase meltdown in the City Where Santa was Booed. Soon after the players made it to the locker room and Tribune beat Rich Campbell made it to his smart phone, word began circulating that the focus had already shifted to the Green Bay Packers.

Just back from the Bears’ locker room. Those guys have already moved on to next Sunday’s game against the Packers.

Bears HC Marc Trestman said this game tape is going “in the trash can” after coaches watch it.

Bears DT Jay Ratliff: “We’ve got to put this game behind us & focus on next week because next week is really what matters.”

Make no mistake about it. Everything the Bears have achieved on the offensive side of the ball and failed to achieve on the defensive side will be forgotten at 3:25 PM CT Sunday. All the Alshon Jeffery catches, Chris Conte poor angles and Adam Podlesh shanks will be considered prologue. Those sixty minutes at Soldier Field will now be how the 2013 season is remembered. A victory will give Marc Trestman a division title in his rookie season and the Bears a home playoff game the following week. A loss will give the Bears a book of questions that require answering before they report to Bourbonnais next summer.

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I am not writing a single word about this Bears v Eagles contest. One team played well. The other didn’t show up. Done.

Now we enter the most important Packers Week in years.

We’re putting up one post for the entire day of games, including tonight’s Bears at Eagles contest. To follow me throughout the day, you can check the Twitter feed or on the right rail of this page or just go and FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER BY CLICKING HERE.

Here’s what you need to know about today’s games.

• If Detroit wins and Green Bay wins, status quo. Bears must win.
• If Detroit wins and Green Bay loses, status quo. Bears must win.
• If Detroit loses and Green Bay loses, the Bears have two cracks at the division title over the next two weeks.
• If Detroit loses and Green Bay wins, Sunday night’s game is effectively meaningless (outside seeding) as Week 17 v. Green Bay will be for the division title.

Enjoy a day and night of football.

I know many of you think the Packers, with Rodgers, are a greater threat to the Bears postseason hopes. But that should not matter. With the Lions owning the tiebreaker, the Bears need a one game lead on them and that might be too difficult for this defense to pull off. Root for Green Bay today.

And as always, I give thanks for those of you who’ve spent time on this site over the years. I love this site because of you.

Feel like gambling on Thanksgiving Day? Drink six beers, select a member of your family and tell them exactly how you feel about them. Or bet on sports. I make my three picks for the day after the jump.

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Five games remain for each of the teams battling to win the NFC North and earn a place in the tournament. Five games. So let’s take a look at them.

CHICAGO BEARS (6-5)

At Minnesota, home Dallas (Mon), at Cleveland, at Philly, home Green Bay

DETROIT LIONS  (6-5)

Home Green Bay, at Philly, home Baltimore, home New York Giants, at Minnesota

GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-5-1)

At Detroit, home Atlanta, at Dallas, home Pittsburgh, at Chicago

SO…?

After looking at those fifteen games, how is it possible to argue Bears fans should be rooting for the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving?

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PFF SAYS SHEA PLAYED POORLY

Some guy named Pete who has been anointed over at PFF Tweeted the following:

Shea McClellin: 2nd-worst @PFF grade of any 4-3 DE in Wk 9. But 2 loud sacks, so naturally NFC Defensive Player of the Week.

PFF attempts to qualify the performance of a player over the course of an entire game and thus weighs a run stop on 2nd and 3 in the first quarter equally to a run stop on 3rd and 1 with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. This is essentially what the baseball metrics folks do. They believe players play to their numbers.

But football is a situational sport. If your analytics tell you Shea McClellin played poorly Monday night, you have to acknowledge in the text of that piece the limitations of your analytics.

I responded via Twitter:

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The Bears went for it.

With 7:50 remaining in the game and the Bears leading by four points, Marc Trestman gambled on 4th and inches. He gambled on his offensive line. He gambled on his All-Pro tailback. He gambled that his offense – the best unit of his football team – would have a better chance to finish off the rival Green Bay Packers than his leaky defense and inconsistent specials. He called timeout. He took a breath. Then he gambled.

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