189 Comments

Vikings at Bears Game Preview: A Potential Season, Pick Power Poll, Book Club, Another Win?

| October 13th, 2023


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.


On the Potentiality of an Interesting Season

Thought experiment.

Pretend Matt Eberflus’ brain didn’t turn to hot soup against the Denver Broncos and the Bears won that ballgame. The team would be 2-3, on the periphery of the wildcard conversation, with a chance to win their third straight against a Justin Jefferson-less Minnesota Vikings this Sunday. This would be a massive contest.

But Eberflus’ brain did turn to split pea, and this is not a massive contest. But that doesn’t mean it is unimportant. Just remember, if the Bears win Sunday, they will be 2-4, with a mediocre Raiders team coming to town next week, bringing with them a big, shiny opportunity to be 3-4. And isn’t hovering around .500 with an improving Justin Fields exactly what most of us expected from this campaign?

The Bears could not lose that Broncos game. And they did. Because of that, they needed to win the next three in order to insert relevance into their season.

Washington.

Minnesota. [ ]

Los Angeles [ ]


Stats of the Week

  • Bears have started solving their run game, increasing their average to north of 130 yards per game in recent weeks. That is 50 yards more per game on the ground than Minnesota averages. This is Chicago’s most significant advantage.
    • The Vikings and Steelers are the only teams in the NFL without a rushing touchdown.
  • Justin Jefferson is 6th in catches, 3rd in total yards, 1st in big plays. His absence cannot be overstated; he is the best player on this team by a significant margin and it is a huge advantage for the Bears that he won’t be playing. Minnesota still has receiving talent, especially TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison, but those players should prove far more manageable without Jefferson on the field.
  • Only one quarterback has thrown more touchdown passes than Justin Fields: Kirk Cousins.

Read More …

Tagged: , , ,

263 Comments

Four Questions for the Divisional Round Losers

| January 24th, 2023

This week, most outlets will focus on lessons to be learned from the teams reaching the final four. But what about the four teams that failed to advance this past weekend? What questions face those franchises? I am asking them directly.


Buffalo Bills. Who are you?

Buffalo’s performance against the Cincinnati Bengals should create something of an existential crisis.

They were a significant favorite. They were home, in front of some of the best fans in the sport. They even got weather. And they didn’t show up. But what is most surprising is just how unsurprising that was. The Bills were terrible a week ago against the Miami Dolphins, and just about any quarterback but Skylar Thompson would have beaten them.

Who are they? What is their offense? What is their defense? This team, as the season progressed, became nothing more than “Josh, go make a play” and that’s not a successful organizational template. Nobody needs to be fired. The roster doesn’t require significant alterations. But an identity on both sides of the ball needs to be established if this team hopes to find themselves playing beyond divisional round weekend.


New York Giants. Do you understand how far away your roster actually is?

Brian Daboll has become the toast of the town in New York City. He is also 3-6-1 in his last ten games.

Daniel Jones, according to WFAN and CBS’ Boomer Esiason, is looking at a potential contract totaling $130-140 million. He also pitched to a quarterback rating of 53.8 against the Eagles on Saturday.

The Giants overachieved in 2022 but that overachievement should be understood in proper context. Their roster is not remotely close to competing for championships. Saturday night in Philadelphia should have illustrated that for Joe Schoen. Did it?

Read More …

Tagged: , , , , , ,

196 Comments

Jags Drop the Ball, Bills Don’t Show Up: Divisional Round Thoughts

| January 23rd, 2023


Kansas City 27, Jacksonville 20

Four mistakes.

Four mistakes cost the Jaguars a remarkable trip to the AFC Championship Game.

  • They dropped an easy Chad Henne interception that would have likely been returned for a touchdown.
  • Christian Kirk dropped a beautiful Trevor Lawrence deep shot that Cris Collinsworth inexplicably described as “overthrown.” (Collinsworth’s praising of Patrick Mahomes during this game became comical at times. Throws into the ground were being called brilliant.)
  • Jamal Agnew let the kicker tackle him on a return when he was coasting into the open field. Every return man will tell you that the kicker can NEVER be the tackler.
  • Agnew committed an unforced fumble, with the Jags driving for a score, down ten, just over five minutes to go.

A dissertation could be written about the Jaguar approach to Travis Kelce but even with the tight end’s dominant performance, Jacksonville should have won this ballgame. They didn’t. Because of four mistakes.


Eagles 38, Giants 7

It’s not surprising the Eagles won. It is a bit surprising that the Giants – who have been defined lately by their grit – were completely toothless. I came away from this snooze of a game with three thoughts.

  • I don’t remember a more difficult evaluation than Daniel Jones and I don’t envy Joe Schoen in the coming weeks. Jones is clearly a starting quarterback in the NFL but is he an upper echelon starting QB? Do upper echelon starting quarterbacks pitch quarterback ratings of 53 in the postseason? Would Jones accept a contract in the Kirk Cousins realm: short-term and fully guaranteed? Three years, $75 million?
  • The Vikings were the hollowest 13-game winner in the history of the NFL.
  • Did the Eagles even need Robert Quinn? They have pass rush coming from every direction and that’s going to make them incredibly difficult to beat in their building next week. Folks are fond of saying the Niners have the best roster in the sport. The Eagles have a real argument.

Read More …

Tagged: , , , , , , ,

124 Comments

Three Bullets Per Game: Division Round Weekend Gambling Guide

| January 20th, 2023

Ultimately, I went 7-5 on Wildcard Weekend, completely whiffing on Cowboys/Bucs to finish. (Each of Brett Maher’s FOUR missed extra points kept the game from hitting the over.) Now we enter the NFL’s best weekend, and the league has served us four terrific games. The goal is simply to stay above .500 the rest of the way.

This week’s three-bullet approach will be a point on each team and a score prediction. Again, my picks against the spread and the total are in the final score predictions. All numbers from DraftKings Sportsbook.


Jaguars at Chiefs (-8.5), Over/Under 53

  • There is nothing particularly interesting about the Chiefs. We saw this story in New England for decades. When you have the best coach and quarterback at the same time, you’ll find yourself in just about every conference title game. The Reid/Mahomes Chiefs have reached a point where they don’t play an important game until late January.
  • The Jags did not look good in their regular season finale, and that carried over into Los Angeles. Fun comeback, sure, but felt more like a Chargers collapse than a Jaguars creation. (Still mind blowing that the scapegoat for that loss has been the LA offensive staff and not the head coach.)
  • Chiefs 40, Jaguars 27

Giants at Eagles (-7.5), Over/Under 48

  • Which quarterback is going to have more success on the ground. Jalen Hurts averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season. Daniel Jones averaged 5.9. Giants’ receivers won’t be as wide open against this secondary, and Jones won’t have hours in the pocket against this pass rush. If Jones isn’t moving the chains with his legs, the Giants will be chasing this game.
  • There are 2006 Chicago Bears vibes with this 2022 Eagles team. Nobody believed that Bears team was capable of making it to the Super Bowl, even though they’d been the best team in the conference the entire season. The Eagles are quite simply the far better team here. Theyll find a way.
  • Eagles 27, Giants 20

Bengals at Bills (-5), Over/Under 48.5

  • Who the hell knows? Honestly, how is this spread five points? There is very little discernible difference between these two clubs, so the small advantage goes to Buffalo’s home field. (But they were home last weekend and looked about as sloppy as they have all year.)
  • If you’re looking for a Bengals advantage, it is turnovers. Bengals were +6 on the season and used a shocking turnover to advance from the first round. Bills broke even with turnover differential during the season and tried everything they could to fumble and drop their playoff opener. My brain tells me this is a budding upset. But…
  • Bills 33, Bengals 30

Read More …

Tagged: , , , , , , , ,

208 Comments

Three Bullets Per Game: Wildcard Weekend Gambling Guide

| January 13th, 2023

This is less a gambling guide, and more an overview of the weekend’s action with predictions. But my gambling choices are evident in my final score prognostications. (All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.)


Seahawks at 49ers (-9.5), Over/Under: 42.5

  • Just as we all predicted in August, the 2022 season could be decided by Brock Purdy’s performance in the postseason. Purdy was a player I liked in the draft, precisely because I watched him play football and not run around in his underwear in Indianapolis. He was a gamer at Iowa State, and those types of guys tend to find a role in the NFL.
  • Seattle is playing with house money and teams in that position are always dangerous. This feels like a game that is 13-13 early in the second quarter, and gamblers start getting nervous, only to see it completely unravel for the Seahawks after a costly turnover or two.
  • 49ers 34, Seahawks 16

Chargers (-2) at Jaguars, Over/Under: 47.5

  • This was the predictable Saturday night contest, but if the league had some leadership, they would have put it in the premier Sunday night slot and marketed the hell out of these two young superstar QBs. Instead, the game of the weekend will be played in the least-watched time slot.
  • This game feels incredibly even, and when that’s the case I look at three essential elements: quarterback, coach and building. Quarterback is a push right now, and the home field in Jacksonville isn’t much of one. But this is the most significant coaching mismatch of the week. Doug Pederson is a big game guy and Brandon Staley has absolutely no in-game feel. The latter will make a head-scratching decision (he always does) to decide this contest.
  • Jaguars 27, Chargers 23

Dolphins at Bills (-13.5), Over/Under: 47

  • Was it the Dolphins? Was it the league? Was it his family? It’s not important. Tua Tagovailoa is not playing in this ballgame and that is important for the long-term health of the young man’s brain. Tua will now have the next seven months to establish whether he wants to assume the risk of continuing his football career. One hopes that he’ll visit with serious neurologists during that time, doctors unaffiliated with the league.
  • Without Tua, this is a serious mismatch.
  • Bills 40, Dolphins 17

Read More …

Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , ,

489 Comments

Week Four Game Preview, Volume II: Can the Bears Find Their Way to 3-1?

| September 30th, 2022


Five Things I Think Will Happen:

  • Robert Quinn only has one sack this season but Sunday, against Houston, he was close to a breakout performance. The breakout comes in the Meadowlands with 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble.
  • The Giants will rush for 128 yards and a touchdown. Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are coaching their quarterback in a similar fashion to what is happening in Chicago. The trust isn’t there. They throw when necessary.
  • The Bears will rush for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Statistically, through three games, this is a mismatch the Bears should exploit.
  • Giants DC Wink Martindale will confuse Justin Fields, leading to 3-4 sacks on third and long. Wink will disguise coverages. He’ll bring pressure from unlikely sources. If Fields isn’t ready and willing to get rid of the football quickly, it’ll be another long afternoon for the quarterback. (And what evidence do we have that he’ll be ready and willing to do that?)
  • The stat that defines the game: tight end production in the passing attack.
    • Daniel Jones is starting to trust Daniel Bellinger and the Bears didn’t have any answers for the Houston tight ends.
    • Cole Kmet was open all day Sunday and the Giants allowed 5-56 to Dallas tight ends Monday night.
    • Neither of these teams offer much at wide receiver.

Both of these teams play slow, ugly football games. And that’s exactly what we’ll see in NJ.

Chicago Bears 23, New Jersey Giants 20

Tagged: , , ,

399 Comments

Week Four Game Preview, Volume I: “Same Old Song” Heads to New Jersey

| September 29th, 2022


They are coming off one of the least rewarding wins in recent memory. So…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.


Video of the Week


The Passer Rating Problem

If you were to list the six men playing quarterback at the highest level through three games, who would you list? Jalen Hurts. Tua. Josh Allen. Lamar Jackson. Mahomes. Probably Trevor Lawrence?

Well, those six men currently lead the NFL in passer rating. Passer rating is not a flawless stat by any means. Quarterbacks should not be penalized for throwing the football away or for interceptions off the hands of their receivers. And quarterbacks should be rewarded statistically for avoiding negative plays and extending drives with their legs. But nevertheless, the passer rating stat is still our finest tool for measuring consistency at the position. All six of those players have a rating north of 100, and you don’t fluke your way into that number.

Justin Fields’ passer rating is 50. That ranks him 33rd in the league. And yes, there are only 32 starting quarterbacks.

The gap between Fields and Mac Jones in 31st (Trey Lance is 32nd) is 26.2 points.

That’s the gap between Jones and the top six, with Lawrence at 103.1.

This means that, according to the passer rating statistic, Fields is as far being the 31st ranked quarterback as Jones – who has been terrible – is from being a borderline Pro Bowler.

The Giants, who have a terrible secondary, have played three quarterbacks. Their passer ratings against:

  • Ryan Tannehill: 106.4
  • Baker Mayfield: 74.6
  • Cooper Rush: 98.2

Fields needs a clean game. No turnovers. High completion percentage. A few big plays. Nobody should be asking for (or looking for) more than that at this stage. If Fields can pitch to a QB rating around 90, there will at least be SOME reason for optimism moving forward in 2022.

Read More …

Tagged: , , , , , , ,