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Previewing Fields’ Return Against the Detroit Lions

| November 16th, 2023


This game in Motown may be one of Matthew Eberflus’ last chances to show Chicago’s powers-that-be that the Bears are in good hands.

His starting quarterback is back in action, his offensive line is finally healthy, and his defense has been on a tear recently — Detroit may be very good (and an 8.5pt favorite over Chicago), but divisional games aren’t easily won in the NFL. If Matt Eberflus has something up his sleeve, now is the time to show it.

In this episode of Bear With Us, Nick and I dive into…

  • The driving forces behind the Bears’ defensive turnaround (& their sustainability)
  • A review of Matt Eberflus & Luke Getsy’s coaching performance to this point
  • A full unit-by-unit preview of the Bears-Lions game
    • Including a great discussion on the value of Chicago’s healthy offensive line
  • A look at the Bears’ (and Panthers’) schedule beyond this weekend’s contest
  • Various draft-day scenarios (Young QB vs Trade Down/WR) & what Fields can do to change our choices over these next 7 weeks
  • And much, much more…

It’s one of our best episodes yet in my opinion — check it out and let me know what you think!

Bonus: Previewing Keon Coleman, a Draft Target to know

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Lovie Returns to Soldier Field (Again): Week Three Game Preview, Volume I

| September 22nd, 2022


He has a beard now. A glorious, white beard. It terrifies young babies. So…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.


Lovie vs. Opposing Quarterbacks

In the first two weeks of the season, Lovie’s defense has faced Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson, both times as substantial underdogs. Their passer ratings?

Ryan: 83.1

Wilson: 66.5

That ranks the Texans seventh in the league in opposer passer rating, a pretty decent stat when evaluating a pass defense. For those thinking this is a “get healthy” week for Justin Fields, that just isn’t the case.

But Houston is allowing 163.5 on the ground so don’t be surprised if the game plan for the Bears in Week 3 is relatively similar to what we’ve seen so far in September.

Knowing Lovie, expect the Texans to sell out to stop the run and dare Fields to sit in the pocket and beat them. If Fields has a good afternoon, the Bears could have a big offensive output.


Other Early Stats that Could Matter

  • Lovie’s teams always get off the bus running the ball but through two games the Bears have actually run it substantially more, to the tune of 64-46 total carries. (Fields runs a lot. Davis Mills runs less.) Bears are also averaging a yard more per carry.
  • Keep an eye on third down defense. Texans are allowing conversions on exactly a 33.3% of attempts. The Bears are allowing conversions on 50%. Small sample size, sure, but those numbers projected out are devastating for the Bears.
  • Both the Bears (28.6% conversion) and the Texans (25% conversion) are in the bottom six in the league in third down offense.
  • Underrated stat: total plays per game. Houston is averaging 63.5 (T-15) and the Bears are averaging 48.5 (31). If the Bears want to improve their offensive performance, it would be helpful to run some offensive plays.

Additional Notes (Links) from the Houston Press

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Week 13: Lions at Bears Game Preview!

| December 4th, 2020


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And the Lions stink.


Best Tweets from Patricia & Quinn’s Former Players

These guys seemed…popular.

What is it going to take for franchises to realize there is no “Patriot Way”. There is Bill Belichick, a certifiable football genius. There was Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback to ever play. That – and an historically bad division around them for two decades – was why they won all those games.

(Also, it is thought that Patricia has been lighting up the Lions via a Twitter burner account in the last few days.)

__________

__________

__________

__________


Trubisky vs. the Lions For the Final Time?

Wrote the following in the Week One Game Preview:

Mitch Trubisky’s success against the Lions is not a myth. But it is absurd.

In five career games, he has completed 70.1% of his passes for 1,359 yards, 11 TDs and only 4 INTS. That’s a passer rating of 106.3.

In his three starts against them under Matt Nagy, those numbers move to 74.7%, 9/1 TD to INT and a rating of 132.4. And most importantly, three victories.

Let’s take just touchdowns and interceptions for a second. Remove the Lions numbers from Mitch’s totals and he’s at 37 TDs and 25 INTs. That’s…horrendous. It’s quite remarkable how these Lions performances have skewed his poor career statistics slightly more positive.

Trubisky’s week one performance? Crap until the fourth quarter but he ended with 242 yards, 3 TDs, a 104.2 rating and the victory. I mean, seriously, is there any reason to think Trubisky won’t beat the Lions Sunday?

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The Lou Malnati’s Game Preview: Week One

| September 11th, 2020

In just a few days the Bears will play football. Someone will keep score. It’ll count. We’ll take it.


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And I don’t see any way the Lions are able to get the Bears blocked up front. The early days of this season should favor ability over scheme and that’s a lot of ability rushing the passer. Legendary NYC radio host Mike Francesa always used the phrase “wreck the game” when it came to the elite pass rushers and the Bears have three guys – Mack, Quinn, Hicks – who can potentially wreck this one. Expectations are for all three to play, and play well.


Actual Football Thoughts Re: Detroit

  • Mitch Trubisky’s success against the Lions is not a myth. But it is absurd.
    • In five career games, he has completed 70.1% of his passes for 1,359 yards, 11 TDs and only 4 INTS. That’s a passer rating of 106.3.
    • In his three starts against them under Matt Nagy, those numbers move to 74.7%, 9/1 TD to INT and a rating of 132.4. And most importantly, three victories.
    • Let’s take just touchdowns and interceptions for a second. Remove the Lions numbers from Mitch’s totals and he’s at 37 TDs and 25 INTs. That’s…horrendous. It’s quite remarkable how these Lions performances have skewed his poor career statistics slightly more positive.
  • Remember the Thanksgiving game a year ago? (I honestly didn’t before doing a bit of research for this.) Matt Patricia had Matt Prater squib a kickoff, trying to avoid a game-breaking return from Cordarrelle Patterson. The ball takes a weird bounce, hits a Bear, recovered by the Lions. (People actually tried to argue Prater hit a Bear on purpose because people are generally dumb.) In a game certain to be low-scoring and close, expect similar tactics from Patricia Sunday. The Lions know the pressure facing Trubisky and there’s no way they’ll allow the Bears to score cheap points, or create short fields, from explosive plays on specials.
  • The Lions need to run the ball against all three teams in this division and their selection of D’Andre Swift in the second round was a move in that direction. But Swift isn’t healthy and might not even be active this week. Expect the Lions to come with a committee of Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson as they attempt to test the Bears’ rush defense without their best rush defender, Eddie Goldman.
  • The talk of Lions camp? Kenny Golladay. Not only is the rising star wideout expected to sign a lucrative extension very shortly but he’s been absolutely dominating their over-matched secondary in practice sessions. If there’s one player on this Lions team the Bears can’t let beat them, it’s Golladay. Chuck Pagano should expect the Lions to find ways to get him matched up with Jaylon Johnson or Buster Skrine early and often. And while it’s not their usual tactic, they should shade Eddie Jackson to Golladay all day long. If Marvin Jones or Danny Amendola win their one-on-ones, so be it.

The Malnati’s Opening Day Giveaway

Our partners at Lou Malnati’s are generously giving away another prize package – exclusive to DBB readers and followers – to celebrate the first football Sunday. The package includes two Malnati’s deep dish pizzas and the Chicago football cookie trio from Deerfields Bakery. (See the cookies right here.)

What do you need to do to win this package worth north of $100? Just guess Mitch Trubisky’s passer rating for Sunday. Rules:

  • You can only guess once.
  • The guess must be a stand alone comment on this thread. Don’t bury your guess inside a 34-comment conversation about South African Troskyist Ted Grant. I’m not digging for entries.
  • No tiebreakers. If someone has already posted 79.6, don’t post another 79.6. The first one is going to be the winner.
  • Your only responsibility is to share photos of the Malnati’s experience with me via Twitter or email so they can promote it on their social channels.

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Bears & Raiders in London Game Preview, Volume II: The Football Stuff (Mostly)

| October 4th, 2019

The George Inn. My favorite pub in London.


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And they are not losing in London, with Reverend Dave and I in the building, all hopped up on bitter ale.


Trite, Boring Thoughts on the Raiders (Stolen From Data’s Twitter)

Data had a stream of Tweets early in the week but I fear they were lost in the Monday excitement. He is one of the best follows on Bears Twitter and I recommend you give him a follow. Here are his thoughts:

  • Derek Carr has been sacked only 8x in 4 games this year. 4th fastest time to throw of any NFL QB, 4th shortest average throw. This feels like a game where the Bears need Roquan Smith, not Nick Kwiatkoski. Gonna be a lot of underneath stuff in coverage.
  • In the running game, Oakland runs inside a little more than outside, so in that regard Kwit would fit right in plugging the interior run. When they do run outside, the Raiders heavily favor the right by a 2:1 ratio.
  • 2 of Oakland’s 3 most targeted players have among the 15 shortest average target distances among all NFL WRs and TEs. Waller is 4th shortest TE at 4.9 yards/target, and Renfrow 3rd shortest WR at 6.4 yards/target. Together they account for about 45% of all Carr targets in 2019.
  • Looking now to Oakland’s defense, this is a game the Bears should find success through the air. Raiders giving up 8.1 yards/attempt (23rd), with 9 TD and only 1 INT for a passer rating of 106.8 (25th).
  • Some of that is because Mahomes lit them up, but Flacco and Cousins both posted a passer rating >100 against them, and Brissett threw for 3 TDs. Their pass D is bad, in no small part because they can’t rush the passer (only 5 sacks through 4 games).
  • Oakland’s run D is actually pretty solid, coming in at 16th in rush yards/game and 11th in yards/carry.
    • Editor’s Note: Dalvin Cook rushed for 110 on only 16 carries against them.

Tweet of the Week (kinda)

I found this story incredibly moving.

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Vikings at Bears Game Preview, Volume II: The Football Stuff (Mostly)

| September 27th, 2019


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And they can’t drop two home division games and expect to win the NFC North.


Trite, Boring Thoughts on the Vikings

  • Dalvin Cook has been the best running back in the sport through three weeks, averaging a staggering 6.6 yards per attempt on 66 carries. Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison have built Minnesota’s offense around the run game and subsequently taken the pressure off Kirk Cousins. They are a team built to play with the lead.
    • But the Bears are allowing 68.7 yards a game on the ground. So something’s gotta give.
  • Cousins has only thrown 63 passes this season. That’s by far the lowest total in the league, 22 fewer than the 31st ranked 49ers. That’s 40 fewer passes than the Bears have attempted this season! When Cousins had to pass – against the Packers – he completed 43.8% of his passes to a rating of 52.9. This is a bad, bad match-up for the Vikings quarterback.
  • A few players who jumped off Vikings tape:
    • Rookie Irv Smith Jr. is working out of the slot and adds a terrific dimension to their receiving corps as a high-percentage throw/catch guy.
    • Eric Wilson was all over the field against the Raiders, registering 11 tackles and 2 sacks. (He started in place of Anthony Barr.) Wilson is one of those defenders the OL must account for at the snap.

Tweet of the Week

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Bears at Broncos Game Preview Volume II: The Football Stuff

| September 13th, 2019

One of the best dogs in the country. Biker Jim’s. Denver.


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And I have never had this strong a belief in the Chicago Bears defense.


Trite, Boring Thoughts on the Broncos

  • Attacking the Broncos defense is ALL about neutralizing their edge rushers – Von Miller and Bradley Chubb – because the rest of Vic Fangio’s group is mediocre. How did the Raiders do this? First, they gave Derek Carr a ton of quick, easy throws. (Commentator Steve Levy even compared Carr’s MNF performance to Phil Simms’ historic Super Bowl in terms of completion percentage.) Second, they committed to the run game even though it wasn’t particularly successful. This kept play-action believable and kept Miller and Chubb a half-step slower.
  • Joe Flacco didn’t play poorly in the opener but he’s in this tiny collection of aging, modern quarterbacks who need everything working around them to be successful. Players like he and Eli Manning don’t have the legs to extend plays so they need a rush game and they need brilliant protection. If Bears keep Freeman and Lindsay quiet in the run game, it’s hard to see the pass rush not harassing Flacco endlessly. If that happens, the mistakes will flow.
  • Courtland Sutton is going to be a star in this league and the Bears better be aware of his location at all times Sunday. He bought a timeshare in the middle of the field against the Raiders. It’ll be interesting to see if he plays with that level of boldness against a far more intimidating, physical defense.

Tweet of the Week


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Week Four: Bucs at Bears Game Preview

| September 27th, 2018

The shirt above was actually sold by our friends 26Shirts


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And I think Matt Nagy and the offense are going to come out a bit spiky this week. Celebrating in the locker room Sunday, Nagy owned the offense’s failings while praising the defense’s dominance. He won’t want to be in many more locker rooms like that one.

[Editorial Note: This column is being written under the assumption Dirk Koetter won’t be benching a QB with 1200+ yards through three games.]


Game Haiku

Matt Nagy. Head Coach.

But offense is his baby.

Baby is crying.


Why the Bears Will Win

  • Bears Defense. This unit has been praised ad infinitum and deservedly so. They are the best defense in the league after three games. And the Bucs haven’t seen anything like this, especially on the road, in 2018. Two of the three defenses Tampa has played – Pittsburgh and New Orleans – are currently ranked in the league’s bottom four. One of the reasons Fitzpatrick has thrived statistically early is the lack of pressure on him. That changes at Soldier Field this week.
  • Bucs Defense. They’ve allowed 91 points in three games and there’s a reason: they are not particularly talented. They’ve rarely gotten to the quarterback with four guys and those quarterbacks are executing to the tune of a 117.1 passer rating. (That’s nearly 30 points worse than the Bears.) Trubisky is going to have plenty of opportunities to make plays down the field against a secondary featuring old guys and inexperienced rookies.
  • Trey Burton. There’s a breakout game coming for Burton and this match-up suits him perfectly. Vance McDonald and Zach Ertz both flourished against Tampa and the big Chicago tight end has increased his productivity each week. Don’t be surprised if Nagy moves Trubisky out of the pocket and gives him some easier, three-level reads to one side of the field. That could give Burton the opportunity for a big afternoon.

Tweet of the Week


Why They Won’t

  • Nagy/Trubisky. A second viewing of the Bears/Cardinals tape confirmed what I believed on first viewing: the Bears offense doesn’t make a lot of sense. It lacks coherence. It lacks identity. And right now it lacks a comfortable, confident quarterback. When Arizona brought extra pressure (or just an exotic blitz look) the coach and quarterback had zero answers for it. Can they get that fixed? Of course. But it’s very hard to make big ticket scheme changes in the six-day period between games. The Bears need the bye. But they have a game to play before they reach it.
  • Fitzpatrick’s Big Plays. The Bears have the best pass rush in the NFL but there are going to be moments this week – several – where Mack & Co. don’t get home. When that happens expect Fitz to take shots over the top because nobody has taken more early in this NFL season. Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson really haven’t been tested yet because of the success up front. That will almost certainly change Sunday.
  • Tampa’s Rush Defense is stingy, holding opponents to 3.6 yards per rush and 70.7 yards per game. Their approach will be simple Sunday: limit the success of Howard/Cohen on the ground and throw pressure at Trubisky on 2nd/3rd-and-long situations. Nobody has run it on this defense with any success yet. The Bears should leave the tunnel Sunday knowing they’ll need to toss it to win.

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Week Two: Seahawks at Bears Game Preview

| September 13th, 2018

The Bears are not in a must-win situation Monday night. But the entire locker room needs to approach the game like they are. They’ve said all the right things since Sunday’s debacle. Will they show up and play with urgency? We shall see.


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

Yes, the Green Bay result was dreadful. But one has to remember it was merely Week One. The arrow is pointed decidedly up for this group and things are going to start moving in that direction quickly.


Why the Bears Will Win?

  • Pass rush. Khalil Mack was with the Bears one week before delivering one of the best halves of football the organization has ever seen.  Roquan Smith won’t be spending much time on the bench any longer. Akiem Hicks and Roy Robertson-Harris both looked like massive disrupters against a good Packers front. Seattle’s front is not very good. Russell Wilson was sacked six times by Denver and it could have been ten if he weren’t so damn elusive. The Bears will get to him early and often.
  • Jordan Howard. The Broncos averaged 4.7 yards per carry against Seattle with two backs not in Howard’s league. Couple that with Nagy taking heat for abandoning his best offensive player at pivotal junctures against Green Bay and the stage is set for Howard to have a big, 25+ carry night.
  • The Crowd. Outside of a few outspoken Twitter folks there is genuine enthusiasm surrounding this team right now and the crowd should reflect that Monday night. Primetime. Lubed up. Good weather. Soldier Field should be an exceedingly difficult place for the visitors this week.

Why They Won’t

  • Offense in Neutral. Progress should be expected from Week One to Week Two but it’s nowhere near guaranteed. If the Bears struggle on offense like they did in the second half at Lambeau Field, will the defense be able to get them over the finish line?
  • Elusive Russell Wilson. He keeps more plays alive than any other quarterback in the league and he’ll be expecting to see Mack, Leonard Floyd and company in his backfield all evening long. This is not a receiving corps, especially without Doug Baldwin, that is going to get a ton of separation off the line of scrimmage. But if Wilson can keep plays alive 3-4 seconds longer, players like Tyler Lockett, Brandon Marshall and Will Dissly will find space in the secondary.
  • I Heart Michael Dickson. Have you seen this guy punt yet? He’s the most incredible young punting talent to enter the league in generations. As a punting enthusiast I debated flying to Chicago Monday morning to see him in person. (But alas, I have jury duty here in Queens.)

Tweet(storm) of the Week

A few thoughts on this:

  • Dan Durkin thinks he’s a professional NFL scout. He’s not. And yesterday he faced an onslaught of criticism (King, Gil Brandt, Dan Orlovsky, all of ESPN) for this Tweet because it reflected the amateurish and incompetent manner in which he approaches film study. Durkin would benefit from spending time in tape study with actual professionals. As someone who HAS DONE THAT I can assure you he’d stop this screenshot bullshit pretty damn quickly.

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Week 12: Bears at Eagles Game Preview

| November 22nd, 2017

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears. Even when they have almost no chance of winning.


Updating Trubisky’s Development

Mitch Trubisky’s performance Sunday was a solid one, especially the final drive of the game. But just as he addressed (a) throws across his body while on the move and (b) taking too many sacks, now he must address an issue that popped up against the Lions. That’s not trusting his pocket.

In fairness, I get it. Trubisky has been harassed in that pocket for a month. Every time he drops back he’s expecting defenders, quickly. Sunday he didn’t get them. But his footwork and mechanics did not reflect that. On throws where he had plenty of time to set his feet and deliver the football, Trubisky rushed his process and delivered an errant toss.

Sunday against the Eagles might not be the day to expect a comfortable pocket. But this is an issue to watch down the stretch.


Song of the Week


Thanksgiving Food Rankings

#3. Pumpkin Pie. You give me warm pumpkin pie with cold vanilla ice cream and you might as well undo my belt for me.

#2. Turkey Gravy. I’m not sure I like turkey. I mean, it’s fine, but if I liked it so much I would probably eat it on one of the other 364 days, right? I don’t even consider turkey on those days. But turkey gravy? I’d inject it right into my veins in a Baltimore vacant if I could. Why can’t turkey gravy be the cure for skunk spraying instead of tomato juice?

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