Went 2-2 ATS last week and would have been 3-1 if I’d remembered never to lay 9 points on an Andy Reid-coached team under any circumstances. Still, 2-2 is a good start. Need a 3-1 week to keep the dream of topping 7-4 alive. I’m confident.
All spreads from BETUS, Thursday evening.
Saturday – 3:20 pm CT
Pick: Falcons -3
This is the hardest game to analyze on the weekend because it’s impossible to know what to expect from Nick Foles. But if the Falcons defense plays as fast and angry as it did against the Rams, how could anyone expect Foles to get anything done through the air? A few interceptions are likely as the Falcons continue their journey to Super Bowl redemption…maybe. Falcons 20, Eagles 14.
Saturday – 7:15 pm CT
Pick: Patriots -13
This Titans crap has gone on long enough. Patriots 27, Titans 10.
Sunday – 12:05 pm CT
Pick: Steelers -7
Here’s my hot take for the column: the Jaguars defense is overrated. Jimmy G tore them to ribbons on Christmas Eve. Since then they’ve faced the offensive juggernauts of Tennessee and Buffalo and could easily have lost to both. (Tyrod Taylor had plenty of opportunities.)
I can’t imagine a scenario where Ben Roethlisberger repeats his mid-season “maybe I don’t have it anymore” nightmare. I can imagine a scenario where Chad Henne finds his way onto the field to replace Blake Bortles. Steelers 30, Jags 10
Sunday – 3:40 pm CT
Pick: Saints +5
Last week I didn’t trust Goff. This week I don’t trust Keenum. Both had wonderful regular season but the playoffs are an entirely different animal. Every single throw carries the weight of the entire season. Is Keenum ready for that pressure?
New Orleans has the corners to limit what the Vikings receivers can do outside, allowing their front to harass the Minnesota signal caller into mistakes. Then the game falls on the arm of Drew Brees and, well, he’s just fine with that. Saints 20, Vikings 17
There are 11 playoff games. My best record against the spread was 7-4 in 2014. This year I will take that record to the woodshed.
Saturday – 3:20 pm CT
Pick: Chiefs -9.
For some reason I’ve been watching a bunch of Titans games lately, mostly to look at Mariota, and something is very clear: the Titans are terrible. Kansas City was 6-2 at home this season and are quietly coming into the postseason on a four-game winning streak. (The Matt Nagy bump?) This profiles as the weekend’s only blowout. Lay the points! 37-16 Chiefs.
Saturday – 7:15 pm CT
Pick: Atlanta +6.5.
I don’t know why I think this but I think there’s a big effort somewhere in this Falcons team. I’m not sure they can win this game on the road because they don’t have a consistent bone in their collective bodies but I still need Jared Goff to win a playoff game before I can get fully on the Ramwagon. 27-21 Rams.
Sunday – 12:05 pm CT
Pick: Bills +9.
I’m just banking on this game being unwatchably low-scoring. 16-9 Jags.
Sunday – 3:40 pm CT
Pick: Saints -7.
These teams played twice this season. Saints won both. Total score: 65-34. If this game were in Carolina I think a Panthers upset would be in-play but I’m having a hard time seeing it in the dome. I’ll be rooting for Chico and the boys but that egg they laid in Week 17 against the Falcons is tough to shake from my mind. 30-17 Saints.
Special thanks to Data for his post-game report yesterday. We’ll be trying to provide post-game content throughout the season.
I couldn’t believe what I was watching. The morning after, I still can’t believe it. Eight thoughts…
One of the most memorable Super Bowls in history. And now the offseason begins.
Honestly, I haven’t spent much time thinking about this Super Bowl. The NFL starts to drift from my mind moments after the conference championship games are concluded. (At this point, golf begins to take the leaves the lounge and comes into the showroom.) But having seen a boatload of both teams over the course of the season, here are five thoughts:
The “expert” analysis seems to be moving towards Atlanta every day. I’m not going there.
New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 31
Here are five bets for this weekend. Bet everything you have. Unless you have a problem. Then don’t bet anything. All odds from Paddy Power.
Several years ago I became the first person in Queens history to lose $1,000 on Super Bowl Sunday before the Super Bowl came on TV thanks to the fine efforts of Bubba Watson at the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. (A golf course I have played and loved.) It’s now become tradition for me to wager too much on this tournament, which often leaks through the opening kickoff and annoys many in the bar In which I’m watching.
Stricker is a very strange player. At his age and with his lack of consistent competition, he has two possible finishes. He’s either missing the cut by three shots or finishing something like T-4. I think he shows up this week and makes you a fortune.
This is not a heads kind of game. Heads would be Steelers-Giants or Patriots-Cowboys. The Falcon presence on Super Bowl Sunday means tails will not fail.
I had to double check these odds twice. Fifty to one?!? Listen, we know Brady isn’t exactly Colin Kaepernick but there are so many scenarios where I can envision Brady taking the ball into the end zone for the first score. And at this number, a $10 flier is winning you $500. So you root for a pass interference in the end zone on the Pats opening drive and you’ll probably get four tries to make magic happen.