Earlier this offseason, I examined Chicago’s pass rush, and this week I want to shift gears to focus on the other part of pass defense: coverage. We started with CB, looked at LB yesterday, and today we’ll finish by examining the safeties.

Side note: If you read either of the last 2 articles, this one will follow the exact same format and have identical table setup, so hopefully the familiarity makes digesting all of the data a little easier. 

Basic Coverage Stats

Let’s start with a basic look at coverage stats for Chicago’s safeties last year. There were 85 S with 250+ coverage snaps, or 2.7 per team, which makes a convenient threshold for starting players since some teams deploy 3 safety nickel looks fairly frequently. Chicago had 3 safeties qualify in 2023: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, and Elijah Hicks. They also signed two more players this offseason who qualified in Kevin Byard (spent 2023 with Titans and Eagles) and Jonathan Owens (spent 2023 with Packers), so we’ll examine their coverage metrics as well.

• Ranks compared to the 85 S in the sample are given in parentheses, and for a little context, 43rd would be exactly in the middle.
• Those in the top 25% (21st or better) are highlighted in green.
• Those in the bottom 25% (65th or worse) are highlighted in red.
• All data for this article is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

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Happy Thursday everyone! The Bears’ defense reportedly showed out in their first joint practice with Indianapolis, giving the Colts’ offense early and finishing well in the late 2-minute drill. They’re playing with energy, finishing drills, and trash talking throughout practice — Adam Jahns writes that the unit has an ‘edge’, and that’s exactly what they’ll need throughout the 2023 season.

But which players are catalyzing the Bears’ defensive attitude shift? What worked last Saturday? What didn’t? To find out, let’s dissect the opening drive of last weekend’s preseason game and see what Alan Williams and the Bears’ defensive starters are cooking in prep for the 2023 season.

Our first two episodes of Dissecting a Drive covered the offense exclusively, so it’s about time we dive into the Bears’ defensive scheme! Lucky for us, Saturday’s Bears game provided us with a 12-play Tennessee touchdown drive that’s ripe for reviewing.

Keep in mind that because it’s the preseason, this is the most vanilla flavor of the Bears’ defensive structure you’ll see all year. That said, I can confirm that the Bears’ defensive bones are still in place throughout the drive — you’ll see a healthy dose of Cover 3, Cover 2, and Tampa 2 throughout this video and throughout the 2023 season, regardless of how the Bears tailor their calls to each opponent going forward.

In this drive, we see:

• A calmer, much-improved Kyler Gordon
• How Tennessee used pre-snap motion to create leverage for their run blockers
• The good, the bad, and the ugly from Dominique Robinson, Andrew Billings, and Rasheem Green
• Jack Sanborn’s big hits, big misses, and the impact Tremaine Edmunds will have on this defense
• TJ Edwards’ physicality and presence within the Bears’ defense
• How Alan Williams used subtle shifts within the Defensive Line Front to create mismatches for his DTs
• Tyrique Stevenson’s ups and downs
• And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

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Four Things I Think Will Happen.

• The Bears have been building to this game. Their offense is improving weekly. Their quarterback is taking the leap before our very eyes. And Chase Claypool will have a full week of practice and certainly see an increase from his 26 snaps against the Dolphins. This is the week where the Bears offense, at home, simply isn’t beatable.
• Jared Goff will throw two interceptions, both in the middle of the field, and one each to Eddie Jackson and Jaquan Brisker.
• Bears stat line for the game: 31 carries between the two backs and QB, 224 yards, 3 touchdowns. (Quite possible Velus Jones adds to these numbers as well.)
• Bears learned in the fourth quarter of the Miami game that they must blitz to generate pressure. They’ll sack Goff three times, with none of those sacks coming from a defensive lineman.

Chicago Bears 34, Lions 20

Five Things I Think Will Happen:

• The Bears will continue their offensive progression, and this week Chase Claypool will be a big reason why.  Claypool is a big-bodied receiver who can operate over the middle of the field, but lives on the barrier. He certainly won’t be able to operate the full playbook but I expect the Bears to use him enough to excite their fans.
• Tyreek Hill won’t get the Bears deep. Jaylen Waddle will dominate them underneath. Matt Eberflus will sit Eddie Jackson in centerfield and Jackson will pick off Tua early. After that the Miami quarterback will pepper short crosses to Waddle and Waddle’s speed/YAC will wreak havoc on the Bears. 11 catches. 141 yards. 2 touchdowns.
• This is a good Dolphins run defense. And the Bears will still eclipse 150 yards rushing.
• It won’t quite be “The Trevis Gipson Game” but he will swarm Tua’s blindside consistently and create a game-changing sack fumble in the fourth quarter.
• Cairo Santos makes a 51-yard field goal as the clock expires.

Chicago Bears 29, Miami Dolphins 27

The Bears are not a good football team. But they have won two of their first four games, so there must be positives to take from this early portion of the season. Here are four.

Second Half Defense

This coaching staff has clearly displayed the ability to make defensive adjustments at halftime, as the Bears have allowed only 18 total points in the second half and zero touchdowns. This group still needs an injection of talent in coming off-seasons, but Matt Eberflus and Alan Williams are showing they can put a competitive unit on the field with whatever they’re given.

Eddie Jackson’s Return to Form

EJ will be 29 when the all-important 2023 season begins, and many of us believed he would not be part of this new leadership’s plans. But through four games, Jackson has been the team’s best and most consistent defender, rediscovering his ballhawk abilities (3 INTs) and looking determined/aggressive in run support. With Jaquan Brisker looking the part beside him, the Bears look like they have the back of the secondary solidified for the next several years.

The Run Game

Everyone wants to make the blanket statement – “the offense is terrible” – but it’s factually untrue. The Bears have one of the best running games in the league, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and 177.3 yards per game. What they are terrible at is throwing the football and throwing the football is how you score points in the modern NFL. But the Bears are establishing a run-game baseline for the future that will be essential.

The 2022 Draft Class

The Bears did not have a first rounder in the 2022 NFL Draft, but they seem to have found some real players. Brisker is playing like a first rounder. Braxton Jones is showing signs that he can develop into a serious answer at left tackle. Trenton Gill is a terrific punter, delivering his best performance in the conditions in the Meadowlands on Sunday. Dominique Robinson has 1.5 sacks and is showing to be a playmaker.

Two questions remain. Can Velus Jones be worked into this offense post-injury, and can Kyler Gordon recover from a brutal start to his career? But otherwise, this draft class is reason for front office optimism.

There is no reason to overreact to the first game of an NFL season, especially when a substantial period of that game is played in a deluge. But when a season is going to be defined by the development of a young roster, it is worth tracking that developing week-to-week. Tuesdays will be the day we do that on DBB.

Four Positives

• Dominique Robinson. Scout friends, with much more developed football brains than my own, have been telling me about Robinson since the Bears took him in the fifth round. Well, Robinson had a jump off the screen debut Sunday and Senior Bowl Jim Nagy took notice.

31 other teams are going to be sorry they let Dominique Robinson fall to fifth round.pic.twitter.com/Wl3AJguZye

— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) September 11, 2022

• Justin Fields. The quarterback was brutal in the first half against San Francisco, but once again he has shown the ability to forget the bad plays and forge ahead. His second half line? 5-for-8, 102 yards, 2 TDs, 0 sacks and a 145.8 passer rating. (And this second half would have likely been even better if the fourth quarter didn’t feature a large boat and two of every animal.)
• Eddie Jackson. Not only did Jackson make the game-changing interception, but he was active and aggressive in run support, even making some noise on contact. This wasn’t EJ the finesse player. This was EJ the defensive leader and after one game it seems no Bears defender has been more significantly (read: positively) impacted by the implementation of Matt Eberflus’ program.
• Khalil Herbert. After struggling this summer, Herbert was the best Bears running back Sunday and he seems to have a burst that David Montgomery lacks. It will be worth monitoring the allocation of carries moving forward.

David Montgomery: 17 carries for 27 yards
Khalil Herbert: 9 carries for 45 yards

Hmm…

— Johnathan Wood (@Johnathan_Wood1) September 11, 2022

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A new year, scheme and regime could have several players could leave some formerly key contributors looking for new jobs in 2023.

The new coach and general manager have nothing invested in the current players; surely a scary thought to some of the youngsters on the team. There are no certainties. Nothing is guaranteed. We thought John Fox and Ryan Pace were inheriting young talent like Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. Both were gone before Fox’s third season. Matt Nagy was greeted by Jordan Howard and Adam Shaheen was supposed to be his Travis Kelce — neither made it to his third season.

In some of these cases, the players may be one-and-done if they don’t produce in 2022. In others, they might get a second year to prove themselves simply because their contracts make it difficult to move on. In any case, these players will have pressure to perform in 2022.

David Montgomery

Entering a contract year, Montgomery is an obvious candidate for this list.

The previous regime loved Montgomery because of the leadership he provides off the field and his versatility on it. (Eberflus has already praised Montgomery’s character.)

However, there have been some questions as to whether Montgomery fits this new scheme. He isn’t Aaron Jones-like, nor is he A.J. Dillon — the two running backs new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy worked with in Green Bay.

There is also some question about Montgomery’s talent level. His career 3.9 yards per attempt certainly doesn’t look worthy of a second contract and advanced statistics are somewhat mixed on his performance.

With the lack of playmakers available, Montgomery figures to have plenty of opportunities to make plays. The team needs him to be more efficient than he has been.

Cole Kmet

There’s no real reason to think Kmet won’t continue to improve, but that isn’t always how it works.

Kmet had rather exceptional production for a 22-year-old tight end, but there’s still questions regarding his receiving ability. He certainly looks the part physically, but his hands aren’t always reliable, and his routes aren’t always smooth.

The third-year Notre Dame product is a solid blocker and possesses good straight-line speed, but the Bears need him to create more big plays and find the end zone. (Throwing him the ball down there should help.)

Eddie Jackson

Jackson is finally returning to a scheme that keeps two safeties back and he needs to show that he can still attack the ball.

Once Vic Fangio left, Jackson’s position changed. He still played safety, but Chuck Pagano wanted to move him around more. That didn’t really work. Sean Desai liked to keep him back, but in a single-high approach with man coverage all around him. That didn’t work.

There’s truth to the thought that opponents have been avoiding Jackson, but we’ve also seen him fail to make plays that have been available.

The Bears might be tied to Jackson contractually through the 2023 season — it depends on how much dead cap space they’d be willing to eat. In any case, he turns 29 during the 2022 season and needs to show he can still play.

Trevis Gipson

Is Gipson a starter or a solid backup? That’s what the Bears need to find out in 2022.

Regardless of what happens with Robert Quinn in 2022, it’s a safe bet that the veteran won’t be on the team in 2024 and probably not in 2023. Do the Bears need to find one new starting defensive end before then or two? Al-Quadin Muhammad signed just a two-year deal and really should be a backup.

This Cover-2 scheme relies on the front four being able to get to the passer; the Bears need to know if they have defensive ends who can do that. Gipson flashed with seven sacks and five forced fumbles in 2021 after barely playing as a rookie. Can he build on that?

Justin Fields

Regardless of what anyone thinks the Bears think of Fields, nobody outside of Halas Hall actually knows.

Hell, they might not even know inside Halas Hall.

The hard truth is that, while he showed flashes, his rookie season did nothing to guarantee that he is going to be a franchise quarterback. The Bears certainly didn’t bet on him becoming one this offseason, unlike the last regime did with Mitch Trubisky.

Whether the Bears 2022 season is a success or failure is going to depend largely on Fields. If he can build off success of late last season, the team might be OK. If he can’t, they’ll have a very high draft pick and, very likely, will be looking at another talented quarterback prospect.

It’s fair to say the Bears haven’t given Fields the necessary tools to succeed.

It’s also fair to say that really good quarterbacks make the players around them better.

The worst thing that can happen — which is perhaps what the Bears have set themselves up for — is that they still don’t know what kind of player Fields is following this season. In that case, they’d probably jump on the opportunity to draft another top quarterback prospect and trade Fields.

But, make no mistake, the current long-term plan has to be for Fields to be the guy and he has the opportunity to make sure that is the case. We know he can make big plays; we need to see more consistency on the routine concepts.  His performance in 2022 doesn’t have to be judged by statistics; he needs to show leadership and the ability to come through for his team when it needs him the most. We need to see more performances like the one he had in Pittsburgh.

Wrapping up our look at returning players and new veterans on defense, today we’re going to explore stopping the run.

This can be difficult to quantify, because much of what goes into run stopping doesn’t get measured. When Eddie Goldman holds his own against two blockers, he frees up a linebacker to make the tackle, but nothing Goldman did there shows up on a stat sheet. So I want to be clear from the start that this is not going to be a perfect science, and I make no claims that it is.

However, Pro Football Focus (PFF) does track some data that can give us an idea of how often a defender is directly involved in stopping a run play. We’ll look at basic metrics that are fairly self-explanatory, like how often a player makes a run tackle or misses a tackle, but also some more advanced data including how far downfield the average run tackle they make is.

One unconventional stat PFF uses that I want to briefly discuss is a “run stop.” PFF defines this as a solo tackle that counts as a “win” for the defense. I can’t find anything definitively saying what makes a play a “win,” but you can imagine this is probably similar to success rate, where it keeps the offense from picking up a certain % of the yards needed for a 1st down. In other words: a defender made a tackle to keep the run short and force the offense behind the chains.

I will examine every Bears defender who had at least 200 run defense snaps last year, whether in Chicago or somewhere else. This allows for a large enough individual sample size that the values have some meaning, but also a large enough sample size for comparing players from a position to their peers. The 200 snap threshold gave a sample of 74 interior defensive linemen (2.3/team), 52 edge defenders (1.6/team), 66 linebackers (2.1/team), 75 cornerbacks (2.3/team), and 70 safeties (2.2/team). That adds up to 10.5 defenders/team, or roughly those who played starter-level snaps.

Interior DL

Let’s start with a look at the defensive line, where the Bears return Angelo Blackson and added Justin Jones in free agency. The table below shows how they both fared in a variety of run-stopping metrics last year, as well as their rank compared to 74 interior defensive linemen who played at least 200 run snaps. To give a broader frame of reference, the best, average, median, and worst values among that 74-player sample are also provided for each statistics. Categories highlighted in green indicated the player was in the top 25% relative to their peers, while red indicates the player was in the bottom 25%.

A few thoughts:

• Angelo Blackson seems like a decent enough, if not great, run defender. He’s not overly good or bad in any of the areas. His missed tackle rate is a little higher than you would like to see, so hopefully that can improve a bit going forward.
• Justin Jones is very active in run defense, as evidenced by his high amount of run-defending tackles. However, he struggles with missed tackles, and very few of his tackles count as “wins” for the defense, which means they’re happening farther down the field than you would like.

Edge Rushers

Let’s switch gears and examine the edge rushers now, where the Bears have three notable players: returnees Robert Quinn and Trevis Gipson and newly signed Al-Quadin Muhammad. The table below shows their performance against the run in a variety of metrics, including their rank compared to 52 positional peers.

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Today we’ll switch to look at how linebackers and safeties have fared in coverage.

Like I did with cornerbacks, I’m using data from Pro Football Focus (PFF) that looks at how frequently and effectively individual players are targeted in coverage. I chose to set a threshold of 250 coverage snaps because it both gives a decent enough sample size to judge an individual player and gives a big enough grouping of players at each position to evaluate how somebody performed relative to their peers. This threshold gave a sample size of 68 linebackers (2.1/team) and 82 safeties (2.6/team).

Linebackers

Let’s start with a look at linebackers, where the Bears return Roquan Smith and bring in Nicholas Morrow. The table below shows how they fared in a variety of coverage metrics last year, as well as their rank compared to 68 linebackers who had at least 250 coverage snaps. To give a broader frame of reference, the best, average, median, and worst values among that 68-player sample are also provided for each statistic. Categories highlighted in green indicated the player was in the top 25% relative to their peers, while red indicates the player was in the bottom 25%.

Note: Since Morrow missed the 2021 season with an injury, his data is from 2020, but he is still ranked against his peers in 2021. I know this is not perfect, but these values shouldn’t change that much league-wide year over year, and it saved me a ton of work.

A few thoughts:

• Overall, both Roquan and Morrow appear to be very good in coverage. This should be a real strength of Chicago’s defense.
• The two main stats I would use to evaluate effectiveness are yards/target and yards/coverage snap. These encapsulate a bunch of the other metrics to show how many yards the defender gave up overall.
  • In those areas, Roquan is solidly above average, but not great, which honestly surprised me.
  • Morrow, on the other hand, ranks near the top in both. The Bears haven’t had a good coverage linebacker to put next to Roquan since he was a rookie in 2018, so the thought of pairing him with somebody who excels in coverage is enticing.
• Some of the other stats can give us a glimpse into playing style. For instance, Roquan gives up plenty of catches (high catch %), but they are mostly very short (low target depth and air yards/catch). This is a common trade off in coverage, since shorter passes are easier to complete. Unfortunately, Roquan struggles a bit with giving up yards after the catch – though it’s not due to missed tackles – which is what brings him down overall. In general, Roquan is good at limiting the yards/catch allowed, but the high catch rate brings his yards/target and yards/snap ranks down a bit.
  • Morrow, on the other hand, keeps the catch rate low despite giving up short passes, which gives him stellar coverage marks pretty much across the board.

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It wasn’t a particularly unique affair. The Bears have lost this game to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers plenty of times. If you need additional details beyond which is provided below, search the archives and find all the recaps of those games.

• Justin Fields continues to show signs, and that’s all you are asking for each week from a rookie quarterback. The touchdown drive he led in the fourth quarter, that could easily have been derailed by a nonsense holding penalty on Sam Mustipher, was a thing of beauty.
  • The Bears have to open up this offense for Fields moving forward and that should start Sunday against Tampa. The Bucs have a terrible secondary but are impossible to run against.
  • The clock still has to speed up for Fields. Sunday, his “run clock” was there. When he saw the space, he took it. But he’s still struggling to recognize how fast these pass rushers are. He ain’t playing Rutgers anymore. Once he starts to feel it, and it’ll be soon, he’ll stop taking unnecessary sacks.
• The refs were not to blame for this Bears loss. But they were dreadful.
  • Has an offsides ever been missed before? There are officials literally staring down the line of scrimmage pre-snap.
  • The hold on Mustipher and pass interference on Jaylon Johnson were both nonsense.
  • I still don’t understand the OPI on Green Bay, or how that touchdown catch was originally ruled incomplete. Neither were close calls.
  • Why was Justin Fields’ timeout attempt rejected? I have never seen that before.
• Aaron Rodgers was the best player on the field. Again. And it’s not surprising when the best player on the field wins, especially when that player is a quarterback. That’s the goal for the Justin Fields Chicago Bears. They have to get there.

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