9-3 this postseason against the spread, my finest performance in years. But can I close strong?

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

• There is an inevitability to these Chiefs and no, I don’t think it’s the result of some NFL/referee gerrymandering of the competition. When I look at the head coaches and quarterbacks on Sunday, this is not much of a contest.
• I don’t love these scenarios where one of the Super Bowl assistants is clearly preparing to take a new job come Monday and Kellen Moore is going to be named the New Orleans coach like fifteen minutes after the Super Bowl ends. Is he currently working on his staff? (He has to be!) Kansas City’s coaching staff rarely gets poached; that group will have a singular focus over these two weeks.
• As mentioned yesterday, I think Spags will limit Saquon Barkley, and I don’t see a path to victory for Philadelphia that does not involve a big output from their best player.
• Philly needs to hit Mahomes. Not hurry him, hit him. If Mahomes isn’t on the ground often, the Eagles don’t win.
• Vic Fangio will sit his safeties deep and prevent the big play, but Mahomes has become an expert at dissecting defenses underneath and the Chiefs have built a collection of skill guys expert at doing just that.

Chiefs 24, Eagles 20

I am not one of those people who has ten bets on the Super Bowl. I can’t keep track of that much action. I love betting the coin toss, sometimes the length of the national anthem, and then I’ll have two or three strategic choices. Today, I present those choices. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bet #1: Saquon Barkley UNDER 113.5 rushing yards. (-110)

Steve Spagnuolo is spending every single minute of his preparation on limiting Barkley, the best offensive player in the sport this season. Will he? Yes, to a degree. I think Barkley is still going to get 15-20 carries and might even get near 100 yards. But the Chiefs are good tacklers at the back of their defense, and they will limit Saquon’s big play ability. (And if you believe that Barkley will be under this number, you might consider parlaying it with the Chiefs on the money line.)

Bet #2: Patrick Mahomes OVER 6.5 rushing attempts (+107)

The liability on this Chiefs roster is the ability of their offensive tackles to protect and the Eagles present the most dynamic front Kansas City will have seen in months. Patrick Mahomes combats that liability with his legs, frustrating defenses with a series of conversions on 3rd-and-six. This should be a close game, where every one of those conversions feels massive in the second half.

Bet #3: Chris Jones OVER .25 sacks (+114)

Why not? He’s Chris Jones, and all you need is for him to jump on Hurts at the end of miscalculated scramble. Jones had a down year in the sack department, but these are the Chiefs, and this is for the championship. If they’re going to win a third straight title, Jones will be part of the story.

$100 bet wins $745.69

I don’t care who wins the Super Bowl this Sunday.

And honestly, I rarely do.

There are exceptions to this, of course. I cared very much when Rex Grossman and the Bears went to Miami to square off with Peyton Manning and the Colts. Too much, to be honest. And if the Bears ever got back to the final Sunday of the NFL season, I’m sure I would care too much again. But unless there are individuals I know involved, or individuals I seriously like/dislike involved, I find it quite hard to emotionally invest in the entire enterprise.

One time I was on a flight from Queens to Jacksonville and was seated across the aisle from Tom Coughlin. He was reading a biography of John Wooden, and I introduced myself. For the whole of that flight, Coughlin asked me questions about MY life. He wanted to know how a musical was constructed, what my work habits were, how we cast, etc. I never even got to tell him I had this website! But I also never rooted against Coughlin again, especially in those two Super Bowls. To the contrary, there is no scenario where I would ever root for Tony Dungy or Aaron Rodgers.

The Super Bowl is important, to the two teams playing and their fans. For this writer, when the Bears are not involved, the Super Bowl is about the $500 box I share at the Copper Kettle and trying a new wing recipe in the air fryer. (This year’s will be a sriracha honey thing.) It’s a solemn occasion, marking the end of the NFL season, a season that seems to move quicker and quicker the older I get. As someone who only roots for one team, my sporting focus shifts to the Premier League, and the four golf majors on the horizon. But I don’t have a dog in the soccer fight, and unless Tiger Woods can suddenly walk again, the same can be said for golf. (I root for Rory McIlroy but I’ll be honest, I’m tired.)

Read More …

4-0 on divisional weekend, after a 4-2 wildcard weekend. At 8-2, this is my best NFL postseason in a long time.

Sunday January 26 – 3:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Two elements in this game are leading me to take the Eagles.

(1) Vic Fangio vs. a rookie quarterback. Jayden Daniels has been incredible this season, but Fangio has seen him twice, and I would expect one of the game’s best defensive minds to show Daniels a series of looks he has yet to experience.

(2) Saquon Barkley. This is his postseason, and I see another 150+ on the ground.

I’m laying the points and not looking back.

Sunday January 26 – 6:30 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

There’s no reason to bet against the Chiefs.

None.

Zero.

So, I’m doing it.

Baltimore was a brutal matchup for Buffalo, with a running attack that could control the time of possession and wear out a smaller Bills defense. But the Ravens made too many mistakes and the Bills advanced.

Can the Chiefs run the ball the ball as effectively as Baltimore? No. Do they have the ability to go out and score 30 and win a shootout? No. They’re simply the grittiest team in modern NFL history, as comfortable down three as they are up 10. They have a single, definitive, remarkable trait: they know how to win big games in January and February.

But I’m going with the best player on the field, Josh Allen. How many times can he lose this particular game? How many times will he allow the final NFL Sunday to exclude him? I’m taking the points and trusting the Buffalo quarterback to get it done.

4-2 last weekend, losing only the coin flip game between Washington and Tampa and the game everybody lost, Los Angeles at Houston. (Where the hell did that Justin Herbert performance even come from?) Still, a very good start to the postseason and my quest to make some money off the NFL in 2025.

Saturday January 18th – 4:30 PM ET

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

I’m going to lay the points because I think the Chiefs have spent the entire season preparing for this game and what they did in the 2024 regular season is not particularly relevant. I expect Mahomes to look like Mahomes, Kelce to look like Kelce, and Chris Jones is going to make it impossible for CJ Stroud to mount any kind of comeback. It is January. The Chiefs will Chief.

Saturday January 18th – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)

Since the Hail Maryland, which I was lucky enough to witness in person, these are the score differentials of the Washington games: 5, 1, 8, 8, 23, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3. Since November, they rarely win big, and they rarely lose big.

I think Detroit will win this game, and ultimately win the NFC, but this strikes me as game wherein Washington could either (a) score early and keep it close, or (b) score late for the backdoor cover. Because I’ve got multiple working scenarios, I’ll take the points.

Read More …

Sunday 4:30 PM ET

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Packers are 7th against the run.

Eagles are 10th against the run.

But I would argue it is far more important for the Packers to establish the run in this game than it is for the Eagles. Jordan Love is not a great quarterback. He’s not going to be able to drop back 40 times Sunday and dice up this Philly secondary without being harassed by their deep front.

Vic Fangio is usually great in these spots; he’ll show Love looks he hasn’t shown another team this season. I wish the line was 2.5, but it’s not. I’ll survive. Lay the points.

Sunday 8:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

The hardest game for me to predict this weekend.

Tampa just needed to beat a lifeless Saints team Sunday to win the division title, and they struggled mightily. Jayden Daniels has been good in 2024, but he’s still a rookie quarterback starting a playoff game on the road. This feels like the game with the widest range of potential outcomes.

I’m looking to the same stat as I did in the previous game to choose a winner. Tampa allows 97.8 yards per game on the ground, fourth in the league. Washington allows 137.5 yards per game on the ground, 30th in the league. Bucky Irving is the most talked about player this wildcard weekend. Lay the points.

Monday 8:00 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams 

This game is entirely about Sam Darnold.

A week ago, the talk around the league was Minnesota committing long term to Darnold and dealing J.J. McCarthy to the highest bidder. But after Darnold laid an egg versus Detroit in arguably the biggest game of his career, will that narrative continue if he lays another in L.A. on Monday night in what is inarguably the biggest game of his career?

I’m rooting for the Darnold career resurgence, but I think he’s going to struggle with serious pressure in this spot. Take the points.