4-2 last weekend, losing only the coin flip game between Washington and Tampa and the game everybody lost, Los Angeles at Houston. (Where the hell did that Justin Herbert performance even come from?) Still, a very good start to the postseason and my quest to make some money off the NFL in 2025.

Saturday January 18th – 4:30 PM ET

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

I’m going to lay the points because I think the Chiefs have spent the entire season preparing for this game and what they did in the 2024 regular season is not particularly relevant. I expect Mahomes to look like Mahomes, Kelce to look like Kelce, and Chris Jones is going to make it impossible for CJ Stroud to mount any kind of comeback. It is January. The Chiefs will Chief.

Saturday January 18th – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)

Since the Hail Maryland, which I was lucky enough to witness in person, these are the score differentials of the Washington games: 5, 1, 8, 8, 23, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3. Since November, they rarely win big, and they rarely lose big.

I think Detroit will win this game, and ultimately win the NFC, but this strikes me as game wherein Washington could either (a) score early and keep it close, or (b) score late for the backdoor cover. Because I’ve got multiple working scenarios, I’ll take the points.

Read More …

Sunday 4:30 PM ET

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Packers are 7th against the run.

Eagles are 10th against the run.

But I would argue it is far more important for the Packers to establish the run in this game than it is for the Eagles. Jordan Love is not a great quarterback. He’s not going to be able to drop back 40 times Sunday and dice up this Philly secondary without being harassed by their deep front.

Vic Fangio is usually great in these spots; he’ll show Love looks he hasn’t shown another team this season. I wish the line was 2.5, but it’s not. I’ll survive. Lay the points.

Sunday 8:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

The hardest game for me to predict this weekend.

Tampa just needed to beat a lifeless Saints team Sunday to win the division title, and they struggled mightily. Jayden Daniels has been good in 2024, but he’s still a rookie quarterback starting a playoff game on the road. This feels like the game with the widest range of potential outcomes.

I’m looking to the same stat as I did in the previous game to choose a winner. Tampa allows 97.8 yards per game on the ground, fourth in the league. Washington allows 137.5 yards per game on the ground, 30th in the league. Bucky Irving is the most talked about player this wildcard weekend. Lay the points.

Monday 8:00 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams 

This game is entirely about Sam Darnold.

A week ago, the talk around the league was Minnesota committing long term to Darnold and dealing J.J. McCarthy to the highest bidder. But after Darnold laid an egg versus Detroit in arguably the biggest game of his career, will that narrative continue if he lays another in L.A. on Monday night in what is inarguably the biggest game of his career?

I’m rooting for the Darnold career resurgence, but I think he’s going to struggle with serious pressure in this spot. Take the points.

All times are ET. Home team in CAPS.

Saturday 4:30 PM – HOUSTON v. Cleveland (-2.5)

His name is Flacco.

No, not the Manhattan owl.

But still the man soars.

Saturday 8:00 PM – KANSAS CITY (-4.5) v. Miami

It will be frigid,

projected at six below.

Too bleak for Flipper.

Sunday 1:00 PM – BUFFALO (-10) v. Pittsburgh

It’s the Bar Bill wings,

versus Primanti Brothers.

Dip this win in blue.

Sunday 4:30 PM – DALLAS (-7.5) v. Green Bay

America’s team.

A nation’s eyes upon them.

Will they hold up? Yes.

Sunday 8:15 PM – DETROIT (-3) v. Los Angeles

Jared was a Ram.

And Matthew was a Lion.

The latter moves on.

Monday 8:00 PM – TAMPA BAY v. Philadelphia (-3)

The home team is bad,

and the road team might be worse.

Someone has to win.

The Picks: Cleveland -2.5, Kansas City -4.5, Pittsburgh +10, Dallas -7.5, Los Angeles +3.5, Philly -3 (but I won’t be betting the last one).

Four Thoughts on the Ballgame

• The legs of the quarterbacks could possibly be the story. Patrick Mahomes has always extended drives with his legs in the biggest moments of his career. Jalen Hurts’ ability to carry the ball is the added dimension that makes Philly so difficult to defend. Mahomes is on one leg. Hurts has been reticent to carry the ball since injury. It begs the question: which player is more lethal with limited mobility? The answer is simple: Mahomes.
• How do these two quarterbacks handle the pressure? Hurts and the Eagles were sacked 44 times. Mahomes and the Chiefs only 26 times. What does it mean? It is a question of design. The Eagles want to get the ball to their big-ticket wide receivers. And doing so takes time. The Chiefs are perfectly happy to dink and dunk their way around the field, especially considering they can dink to an unstoppable Travis Kelce.
• If you’re looking for a statistical dividing line between the two clubs this regular season it is turnover differential. Eagles were +8. Chiefs were -3. What questions can we ask? Can the Eagles continue this trend of not turning it over? Can the Chiefs survive a turnover or two against this, the best opponent they have faced all season? How might an early turnover swing each team’s approach?
• This feels even, with two players capable of being game winners: Chris Jones (KC) and DeVonta Smith (PHI). If one of these two guys dominates, I think it swings the result. If neither dominates, I like the Chiefs narrowly.

Kansas City Chiefs 24, Philadelphia Eagles 21

Player to Watch on the Philadelphia Eagles.

DeVonta Smith is one of my favorite players in the NFL. Here is what I wrote in the leadup to the 2021 NFL Draft:

I don’t get it.

I’m sure there are scouty/personnel types who will quibble at Smith’s measureables (oh no, he doesn’t weigh enough!) but when you watch him on the field, which is where he actually plays football, you see an NFL star.

In the modern NFL there are very few line-em-up-and-beat-the-corner wide receivers. The game is about matchups and Smith is a matchup nightmare. He’s the best wide receiver in this draft. He’s the best return man in this draft. He’s the best player in this draft.

This season, Smith had 95 catches for 1,196 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s a star, but on a stacked roster, he’s not treated like one. The Super Bowl has a habit of changing the perception of a player and I think that’s about to happen with Smith. With the deep shots to A.J. Brown made more difficult by Chris Jones and the pass rush, expect Smith to devour the Chiefs underneath.

If the Eagles win the game, it will not surprise me to see Smith win the MVP.

The four best teams in the NFL remain. That’s all we can ask for in the final weeks of an NFL season.

49ers at Eagles (-2.5), Over/Under 46.5

• Let’s look at some regular season rankings:
  • Yards per game: Eagles 3, Niners 5
  • Points per game: Eagles 3, Niners 6
  • Yards allowed per game: Niners 1, Eagles 2
  • Points allowed per game: Niners 1, Eagles 8
  • Opposing passer rating: Eagles 3, Niners 6
  • Sacks: Eagles 1, Niners 11
  • Interceptions: Niners T-1, Eagles T-4
  • Turnover differential: Niners 1, Eagles 3
• What do those stats show? There is no advantage in this game. It is going to be decided by a big play here, or a big play there, or a costly turnover at the wrong moment, or a brilliant special teams moment. I give the Eagles a slight edge at quarterback, and a slight edge for the home field. And that slight edge is reflected in my score prediction.
• Eagles 24, 49ers 23

Bengals (-1) at Chiefs, Over/Under 47.5

• The Chiefs had been favored in 14 consecutive postseason games, and the only reason they are not favored this week is because of the health of their quarterback. What will Patrick Mahomes look like Sunday evening? There is a strong chance we won’t know until the game kicks off, and that makes it near-impossible to predict with any semblance of certainty.
• Joe Burrow’s postseason stats: 5-1, 68.1% completion, 1,556 yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTS, 98.4 rating. Against the best competition, Burrow is at his best. Is he the best quarterback in the sport?
• With a hobbled Mahomes, I don’t think the Bengals are the better team. I think they are the significantly better team. So…
• Bengals 31, Chiefs 20