Rumor is I made a few picks last week. I have no recollection of this but it has been brought to my attention by several associates. (I was not disappointed in the Rams pick. That game could have gone either way. But I just didn’t think the Packers would lose back-to-back games or that the Bears defense could hold the Charger offense to 12 points.) This week, a rebound…and a theme! Road dogs!

BUFFALO BILLS +3 AT NEW YORK JETS

Here’s why I like the Bills to win outright tonight:

• When Buffalo’s had their starting quarterback and star wide receiver, they’ve been a different team. Both will be looking to make their 2015 statement in front of a national audience tonight and thrust their team into the playoff race.
• Jets defense has hit a wall. The Patriots got them for 30, the Raiders got them for 34 and last week the Jags offense managed 23 and – most importantly – kept the game close throughout.
• I know the coaching staffs are entirely different (including a swap) but the combined score of the Bills/Jets games in 2014 were 81-26.

CHICAGO BEARS +7 AT ST. LOUIS RAMS

St. Louis will be in the 20s. The Bears should be in the 20s. Points just seem too many for a team quarterbacked by Nick Foles.

DETROIT LIONS +11 AT GREEN BAY PACKERS

This has all the makings of a back door cover, especially against a defense that just allowed the Broncos and Panthers – two struggling offenses – 29 and 37 respectively. I’ll take the points.

Season Record: 13-12-2

Social media was aghast yesterday in the wake of the Bears 37-34 overtime loss to the Detroit Lions. It seemed everybody wanted to assign blame. The truth is everybody on the Bears sideline was somewhat responsible.

• If John Fox doesn’t make a zillion mistakes managing this game (the most egregious, in my opinion, is detailed below) they probably win the game.
• If the Bears finish their drives down around the goal line, they win the game.
• If Jay Cutler hits Matt Forte on the wide open wheel route that looks destined for the end zone, they probably win the game.
• If the Bears catch a few balls they dropped, including pivotal ones by Martellus Bennett and Marquess Wilson, they probably win the game.
• If Pernell McPhee doesn’t rough Matt Stafford, they probably win the game.

But let’s remember. If the Lions don’t fumble two punts, the Bears aren’t even getting this game near overtime. Fans have been fooled by their quarterback’s heroics over the last three weeks into believing this is suddenly a good team. It is not. And we learned that definitively Sunday.

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Buy Chicago Bears Tickets

The Bears have a chance to enter their bye week at .500. That thought was unfathomable two weeks ago. Hell, it was unfathomable with six minutes remaining at Arrowhead Sunday. Nevertheless, here we are, daring to dream.

AN ACTUAL QUICK THOUGHT

Does anybody really know if the Bears are any good? Honestly, do you?

Sunday will tell us something. If the Bears are a better than average team they will go into Detroit and beat a Lions team on life support. They will embrace the opportunity to rescue what looked like a dying season by beating a team they are better than right now. Good teams beat the teams they should, unapologetically. This is one of those cases.

The Bears haven’t been in this situation. Point spread aside, many will expect them to win this week. How will they handle a bit of success? How will their quarterback handle the abundant praise (deserved) he’s received all week locally? It will be a fascinating game to watch.

THE GAME POEM

DETROIT.

Where once there was a factory

Now sits only stone

And a city once that changed the world

Sits quietly, alone

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Dave Birkett sounds the way the man covering the Detroit Lions should: dour. During the conversation he discusses:

• Defensive lack of identity in the post-Suh era.
• How age is starting to catch up with the Lions roster at various positions, including wide receiver and linebacker.
• Why Matthew Stafford is losing confidence of Lions fans and quite possibly ownership.
• Calvin Johnson no longer being Calvin Johnson.
• A possible bright side for the remainder of the 2015 season. (Hint: it starts with Lions winning Sunday.)

• The Bears have two wins because they have a good coach and a good quarterback. You were told that they would win some games for that reason, I know you were because I’m the one who told you. (Pats self on back).

• Through five games in 2014, Matt Forte had 118 touches. Through five games in 2015, he has 120. I don’t know when we should start worrying about over-usage, but he looks damn good right now. He isn’t the only one getting the ball a lot, the Bears backup running backs have combined for 26 touches after totaling 42 last year. Fox wasn’t kidding when he said he wanted to run the ball, the Bears are 12th in attempts after finishing 30th last year.

• Coming into the game, there was a debate about which team had the better quarterback. That debate is dead. You saw on Sunday why turnovers aren’t the end all, be all when it comes to quarterback play. The guy still has to be able to make plays. Smith can’t. Cutler can.

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Last year’s column caused a FIRESTORM when readers had the nerve to question the veracity of my claiming a more than 50% success rate on the 2013 version. What did I do? I answered with a stunning 51.38% success rate in 2014. This success was not lost on the American public but I did not know how far my column reached.

So without further adieu, fifty prognostications, pontifications and ponderings on the 2015 season with a nod to every single team in the league.

#1 Nobody’s opinion of Jay Cutler will be different on January 4th 2016 than it is right now.

__________

#2 Andrew Luck will win the MVP award if his offensive line figures out a way to block people.

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When I spoke with Detroit Lions fan Jeff Risdon last week, I was surprised by his optimism. Risdon is usually pretty down on the Lions, but he sees them as a team that will win 10 or more games and make the playoffs for the second straight year. Hell, he might be right, if the Lions catch a few breaks they just might be legitimate contenders for the NFC North title.

Why They’ll Win The North:

They almost did last year. Go back to their Week 3 game against the Packers and you’ll see they flat out bullied them. Aaron Rodgers left the game whining about Green Bay’s scheme — the same scheme that has had them among the highest scoring team in the league for almost a decade. The Lions had them stumped. They met again in Week 17 when the Packers were at their best and the game still came down to the fourth quarter.

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While Jeff is getting drunk and golfing in Ireland, I have been put in charge of doing NFC North Previews for DBB. To help get knowledge on some of the other teams, I called up a pair of colleagues and they had the same thought about the NFC North standings this year: The Packers will finish first and the Bears will finish last.

While my attempts to record podcasts with both failed, I spoke with Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Jeff Risdon of RealGM and ESPN 961 and they both were in agreement on how the division would shake out.

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The expectations for the Bears are at Wannstedt-level lows, but there are several reasons to think that they’re going to be better than almost everyone is predicting.

The common predictions for the Bears are ranging everywhere from 4-12 to 8-8. Not crazy when you consider they went 5-11 last year, but to describe them merely as a team that had that record last year is missing so much of the picture. As awful as they were just a short time ago, the Bears have some stuff going for them and that stuff might just be enough to get them into the playoffs in 2015. Here are five reasons why the Bears are going to be better than you think.

#5. THEY CAN COMPETE IN THE NFC NORTH.

There has been a general assumption that the NFC North is a great division, but both Detroit and Minnesota have major weaknesses that could be their downfall.

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