I have nothing more to say about the 2022 Chicago Bears. So here are some thoughts on the other teams.

• The Jets have to decide if they believe Mike White is a quarterback capable of leading a talented roster into the postseason. If they believe he is, and don’t believe Derek Carr or Jimmy G would be significant upgrades, the team should abandon the Zach Wilson Project and select a quarterback early in the draft. The Jets are talented, but they’re also young. White and a rookie could be the ideal QB room for them next summer.
• Denver fired Nathaniel Hackett but it’s not going to matter. Russell Wilson is shot, and his teammates hate him. There is no easy escape from this situation for the franchise but if they were smart, they’d simply eat the financial horror and move in a different direction. Start rebuilding the entire team now. Trade off viable assets.
• The most complicated contract negotiation this off-season: Daniel Jones. It is highly unlikely the Giants don’t resign him, but at what price? At what length? If the Giants don’t get a deal done with Jones, he’ll end up a starting QB next September somewhere in the league.
  • Also, I think Brian Daboll has been every bit the coach of the year. He won’t win the award but he’s getting absolutely everything possible out of an undermanned and decimated Giants roster.
• There is a lot of talk about potential landing spots for Sean Payton in 2023 but I don’t see him going anywhere without a quarterback already in place. Where is that? Maybe the Chargers, should things get wonky down the stretch. But there is little appeal in Denver, Indy, Carolina right now.
• Amazon should fire Kirk Herbstreit, Joe Thomas and Tony Gonzalez. Move Ryan Fitzpatrick into the booth next Al and let the “studio” show be Charissa and Richard Sherman. Fitzpatrick has intelligence/wit to be great in the moment, and Sherman’s analysis is wasted by time limitations. If they did this, they would have the best NFL broadcast around.
• With those receivers, Tua will always have production. But he’s simply not that talented a player. He’s got off-the-chart intangibles and a bottom of the league arm. He’s an MLB fourth starter who thrives against bad competition.
• Is that the most Lions loss ever? Just when they’ve built their fan base to a fever pitch, they get run over by the Carolina Panthers. 320 rushing yards? 320!?!?!?
• This is Bill Belichick’s worst season as a head coach. The Patriots are losing games mentally every week and it is still inexcusable that Bill handed over the offense to Matt Patricia.
• Deshaun Watson. Almost like professional football is difficult and you can’t take two seasons off.

Three initial thoughts:

• I’ve never been one of the Fangio sycophants. I think he’s a good, solid, stable defensive coach but his genius has been overstated for years. The Bears defense took a leap this season because the Bears added one of the two best defensive players in the sport and drafted a star inside linebacker. That’s why sacks, turnovers, performance increased.
• Fangio deserved this opportunity, probably years ago. But Bears fans should get used to this feeling because I predict they will lose multiple coordinators in the Matt Nagy/Mitch Trubisky years to head coaching gigs.  That’s what comes with sustained success.
• This simplest solution is Ed Donatell, who has done a wonderful job with the Bears secondary. But the Bears shouldn’t rush. They need to find a defensive mind that mirrors the folks running their offense: aggressive and exciting. Fangio liked his corners to play off the ball and liked to take his best pass rushes out of the pass rush in big moments. This defense has all the talent in the world. It needs a little meanness.

Photo by Aaron Doster, USA TODAY Sports

• This entire game comes down to the medical status of Adam Shaheen (pictured above) and Leonard Floyd. If Shaheen is significantly hurt, the Bears will be devastated. For weeks I’ve been writing and Tweeting about the big tight end because I’ve been told no player has more excited the coaching staff with his potential. If Floyd is significantly hurt, well, that Kahlil Mack stuff is about to get serious because the Bears are lightest on the edge.
• Back when I used to play fantasy football (my running backs were Marshall Faulk and Shaun Alexander) a game like this would have changed my entire draft approach. Why? Because it’s clear Mitch Trubisky and Trey Burton have a thing going and last night’s practice game was an opportunity for them to play pitch-and-catch against an actual opponent.
• Why give Jordan Howard nine carries in a practice game? The numbers are definitive. These star running backs have a limited number of carries/years in their bodies. They hit a career wall at thirty years old. I’d put Howard in an ice bath until after Labor Day.
• The interior of the Bears offensive line got pushed around a bit. But these guys are impossible to evaluate without scheme being involved. (And I don’t think this is their best five but that’s another issue entirely.)
• Both Isaac Yiadom & Kyle Fuller were called for the “lowering the head” penalty. In neither case was the call accurate. It was obvious during the Hall of Fame Game and it’s becoming more obvious as days go by. If the NFL doesn’t suspend this rule before the season opens and revisit it, they’re making a terrible mistake. The product has suffered terribly over the last few seasons because of decisions by the front office. This will continue that trend.

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Three questions for this game.

#1. I have no doubt Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will get to Cam Newton. But what happens when they get there? Newton ain’t Tom Brady. He’s more likely to throw Miller to the ground than be sacked by him.

#2. What happens if the Panthers offense struggles early? This is a team that hasn’t faced adversity a lot this season and certainly hasn’t faced a defense of this caliber. If Carolina doesn’t score on their first couple drives, do we see Cam Newton force things?

#3. One of the untold stories of the AFC title game was how many receivers Peyton Manning missed for big plays down the field. But the biggest stat of this game may be Manning’s interception total. Can he avoid the big mistake, especially in the middle of the field? If he does, the Broncos defense will keep the game close.

Carolina Panthers 24, Denver Broncos 20

GET TO THE QUARTERBACK

Wrote extensively about this earlier in the week so no reason to repeat. Here is a passage from that short piece:

And pass rush, despite what people will have you believe, is not necessarily a quantifiable statistic. Sacks are great but pressuring a quarterback into a poorly timed throw can often be far better. Sustained pressure throughout a game is a recipe for success but intense pressure in the fourth quarter, with the game on the line, is a recipe for championships.

Pass rushers, much like quarterbacks, must raise their games in the pivotal moments.

The postseason is a collection of pivotal moments. The Super Bowl is a hundred of them.

MORE THAN ONE WAY TO PLAY QB POSITION

There is an inane phrase repeated, many times in Chicago, about a quarterback being a “guy that can win you the Super Bowl”. Let’s take a look at Peyton Manning’s 2015. He completed less than 60% of his passes in a league where you could complete 60% of your passes. His touchdown-interception ratio of 9-17 will be the worst such differential attached to a Super Bowl starting quarterback in history. He has the mobility of Stonehenge. And, let’s not forget, he seems completely unable to throw the ball outside the numbers or down the field. 2015’s version of Peyton Manning checks none of the boxes for a “guy that can win you the Super Bowl.”

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Photo screenshot from Chicago Tribune.

There’s an old maxim in the NFL repeated ad nauseum in press conferences across the league: injuries are not an excuse. In a league with a hard salary cap not allowing for depth at any position, injuries are absolutely an excuse. If the Bears were at full strength yesterday, they win. Simple as that. With Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, a heathy Pernell McPhee and even Antrel Rolle (see below) the Bears would now be heading to Thanksgiving at .500. This roster is not deep enough to beat good teams short-handed.

• Marquess Wilson will be a valuable part of the 2016 Bears as their fourth receiving option.
• Worst game Jay Cutler played this season and it unsurprisingly came against the league’s best defense with all his receivers hurt. And he STILL took the team down the field at the end and gave them a chance to win it.
• Cutler’s beautiful throw to Langford in the end zone is an easy touchdown for Matt Forte. Those are the kinds of plays Langford must learn to make. And he will.
• There should be no run option on the final two point conversion. It should not even be available. Not against that front.
• What was the fourth and eight call with ten minutes to go? Jeremy Langford and Martellus Bennett both looked like they had no idea where to run their routes.
• Adam Gase has done a fine job this year with the quarterback and handling the injuries. He’s done a poor job in the red zone.

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The best I’ve ever been taught the three-act structure of playwriting was by a a wonderful writer and teacher named Pat Cook at the BMI Musical Theatre Writing Workshop. Cook, recalling the lessons of a teacher from his own past, described it thus:

Act One: get the main character up a tree.

Act Two: throw rocks at him.

Act Three: if he comes down safely, comedy. If he falls to his death, tragedy.

At the risk of harping on an issue many readers of this site could care less about, this structure is being more or less abandoned by the modern dramatic writer. The three-act play is being replaced by the 65-minute “meditation” on a relevant theme. (How hard it is to be gay, violence in schools, sex scandals in politics!) Plays with beginnings, middles and ends – once referred to as “well-made plays” – are now considered old-fashioned.

John Fox is not the hot coordinator of the moment, the NFL’s equivalent of a meditation on a relevant theme. What has Adam Gase actually done? How much does Dan Quinn actually provide the ridiculously-talented Seahawks defense? Shhh! Who cares? These are the names of the moment and they excite owners and fans in the same manner any shiny toy in the window excites a child: they’re new!

Fox is not new. He is a veteran head coach, an established structure, an old-fashioned play. The Chicago Bears are his third act.

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