Falcons at Cowboys over 53.5 points (-110)

Week 9 was one of the strangest in league history but two things struck a note of predictability: the Falcons couldn’t hold a lead and the Cowboys couldn’t win a big game.

Atlanta is figuring out their offense without Calvin Ridley, and it involves a heap load of “tight end” Kyle Pitts. (Side note: what makes Pitts a tight end? Because it sure isn’t the position he plays when on a football field.) This season’s offensive revelation has been Cordarrelle Patterson and the Cowboys don’t have an answer for him in the passing game.

Dallas is desperate. And home. These weapons aren’t being held down two weeks in a row. This feels like a game where both teams could get into the thirties.

Titans -2.5 over Saints (-110)

There seems to be a general belief that at some point the Titans have to lose. But Mike Vrabel’s team had the most impressive win of the season Sunday night in Los Angeles; without their best player; on the back of their defense; against perhaps the league’s best team (before Sunday). Tennessee’s schedule down the stretch is a pathway to the number one seed. Sure seems like that is the direction in which they’re headed.

And while Sean Payton is one of the best coaches in the league, he’s now playing with third stringers at QB. (He opened the season with a backup playing the position.) Eventually, that car runs off the road. They lost last week and three of their next four are against the Titans, Bills and Cowboys.

Colts -10 over Jaguars (-115)

Colts point totals since October 3rd: 27, 25, 31, 30, 34, 45.

Average: 32.

Jaguars point totals since October 10th: 19, 23, 7, 9.

Average: 14.5.

Colts 32, Jaguars 15.

This three-game parlay goes off at +581 so $100 bet will win you $681.38.

After the ugly, hard-to-watch victory over the putrid New York Giants, Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears started a new season, a new play. It’s gone a little something like this.

Act One: Thanksgiving

After a slow start on both sides of the balls – Kenny Golladay is still wide open – the Bears reinvigorated their fans and their season with a brilliant comeback, all of it on the broad shoulders of their much-maligned quarterback. Still, it was the Lions. Just the Lions. And no one anywhere near this franchise was ready to overreact.

Act Two: Finishing Off the Cowboys

The Cowboys were meant to be a step up in class, a championship contender suffering through a disappointing string of results. (Sound familiar?) But at Soldier Field on Thursday night, the Bears delivered their best performance of the 2019 season and the quarterback reminded everyone of his limitless potential.

Act Three: Packer Week

Now the stage is set for the final act of this in-season play. If Mitch Trubisky and these Bears can deliver another inspired performance and beat their oldest rivals in their building, they will change the narrative of this entire campaign. Yes, not being in the tournament will be a colossal disappointment for a team with such high expectations. But that disappointment will be assuaged by getting the record to .500 or better; assuaged by finishing the season with a winning record in the NFC North; assuaged by the quarterback potentially “finding it” down the stretch.

This was a dreary, boring season. But the last two weeks have been thrilling. Now the Bears have an opportunity to complete this somewhat-redemptive tale, building confidence in the locker room and among the fans. No one will be content with 2019, no matter the result at Lambeau Field. But many will find reason to believe for 2020 should the Bears beat the Packers.

It’s Packer Week.

Last night, against the Dallas Cowboys, Matt Nagy called his best game as Chicago Bears head coach.

Last night, even with a few wonky moments, Mitch Trubisky looked like the future at quarterback for the Chicago Bears.

Last night, with another starter heading to the locker room and new faces all over the place, the defense of the Chicago Bears looked like the group everyone expected to make them title contenders this season.

And David Montgomery.

And Anthony Miller.

And Cordarrelle Patterson.

And Holtz and Horsted and Mack and Fuller and…

…can’t we go back and start this 2019 campaign over again?

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DBB Watch Party!

Billy Goat Tavern 

430 N. Michigan Ave. (but it’s down below)

Join me, Marco the bartender, the Chicago Tribune’s Rick Pearson and maybe some other people as we down some drinks and watch the ballgame at one of the great literary haunts in the world. I’ll be there from 6:00 PM CT.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…and it would be a big moment for this coach and his program to get this season over .500. I think he does it.

The Game Haiku

I saw Rick Pearson

at the Billy Goat Tavern.

That’s all I recall.

Three Thoughts on the Cowboys

• After struggling to contain Kenny Golladay a week ago, the Bears could have faced a similar issue with Amari Cooper. But the Cowboys’ best receiver didn’t finish their game on Thanksgiving and, while an MRI revealed no structural damage, he won’t be at full strength should he play. Guard Connor Williams, a really good young player, is done for the year.
  • From head coach Jason Garrett, in a Dallas Morning News story: “Connor has been a good player for us,” Garrett said. “[He] started a lot of games for us last year as a rookie and then came back after his injury, did a good job for us in the playoffs and again has been the established starter at that left guard spot all year long. He’s really grown and developed as a player and done a really good job for us, got bigger and stronger than he was his rookie year, [and] we expected that when we drafted him.”
• The Cowboys were a solid, if unspectacular defense in 2018, as their coordinator Kris Richard became a name mentioned for several head coaching vacancies. Now his security in Dallas is uncertain, as Dallas has allowed 26 points or more in three of their last four games.
• Let’s look at how these two teams compare with the big ticket numbers:
  • Both are 6-6.
  • The teams the Cowboys beaten are a combined 18-54. (Really, really bad.)
  • The teams the Bears have beaten are a combined 20-50-2 (Not so good either.)
  • The Cowboys point differential is +74, which tells you they are beating down the bad opponents and losing relatively close affairs (averaging 5.5 point deficit per loss) to better teams.
  • The Bears point differential is +4, which tells you they basically play a coin flip every week.
  • If the season ended today, the Cowboys would host a game on wildcard weekend.

Tweet of the Week (Another Cowboys Thought)

#Cowboys ST ranks through Week 13:

27th in PR average

29th in FG %

32nd in KR average

32nd in Gross Punt average

32nd in Net Punt average

T-32nd in Kicks Blocked (offense)

T-32nd in Return TDs

T-32nd in Blocked Kicks (defense)

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 30, 2019

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The most important games of the week for the Chicago Bears will be played tonight (Bears v Rams) and tomorrow night (Vikings v Seahawks). But there’s still much to keep an eye on before we hit the primetime slate.

Who should the Bears fan root for?

Browns over Panthers

Another Panthers loss would basically clear them from the wildcard fray.

Cowboys over Eagles

There’s an argument to be made for rooting against Dallas. But that’s a seeding argument. Seeding schmeeding. Fans should just want the Bears playing in January.

Giants over Redskins

This is the least important because Mark Sanchez ain’t making a run.

It’s been a long time. A long, long time. In 2013 the Bears had a chance to make the playoffs over the final month but they were 6-6 at this stage and a definitive mediocrity.  Per Football Outsiders, the Bears have an 85.1% chance to win the NFC North and a 96.3% chance of making the postseason. This is the kind of piece I’ve wanted to write for a long, long, long time.

NFC NORTH

Where Things Stand

Bears (8-4) are home to the Rams and Packers, followed by at Niners and Vikings.

Vikings (6-5-1) are at Seahawks, home to the Dolphins, at Lions, home to the Bears.

Notes

• Any analysis of the remaining schedule has to begin with a basic fact: the Vikings haven’t been good. To expect them now to win their final four games is a bit of a stretch. But their contest in Seattle Monday night will set the tone for the rest of their season. It’s not a “must win” when it comes to making the postseason but it may be when it comes to challenging for the NFC North, especially if the Bears beat the Rams Sunday night.
• Bears are 5-1 at home and their five wins have been by 7, 38, 14, 12 and 5. They have been great at Soldier Field. If they finish the season 6-2 at home, splitting their next two games, they’ll only need a win in San Francisco to host a playoff game in January.

WILDCARD

Where Things Stand

*Note: If the Bears are competing for a wildcard spot, one must assume the Vikings have won the NFC North. So we can leave them out of this equation.*

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