Championship Sunday Open Thread!
4-0 on divisional weekend, after a 4-2 wildcard weekend. At 8-2, this is my best NFL postseason in a long time.
Sunday January 26 – 3:00 PM ET
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Two elements in this game are leading me to take the Eagles.
(1) Vic Fangio vs. a rookie quarterback. Jayden Daniels has been incredible this season, but Fangio has seen him twice, and I would expect one of the game’s best defensive minds to show Daniels a series of looks he has yet to experience.
(2) Saquon Barkley. This is his postseason, and I see another 150+ on the ground.
I’m laying the points and not looking back.
Sunday January 26 – 6:30 PM ET
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
There’s no reason to bet against the Chiefs.
None.
Zero.
So, I’m doing it.
Baltimore was a brutal matchup for Buffalo, with a running attack that could control the time of possession and wear out a smaller Bills defense. But the Ravens made too many mistakes and the Bills advanced.
Can the Chiefs run the ball the ball as effectively as Baltimore? No. Do they have the ability to go out and score 30 and win a shootout? No. They’re simply the grittiest team in modern NFL history, as comfortable down three as they are up 10. They have a single, definitive, remarkable trait: they know how to win big games in January and February.
But I’m going with the best player on the field, Josh Allen. How many times can he lose this particular game? How many times will he allow the final NFL Sunday to exclude him? I’m taking the points and trusting the Buffalo quarterback to get it done.
4-2 last weekend, losing only the coin flip game between Washington and Tampa and the game everybody lost, Los Angeles at Houston. (Where the hell did that Justin Herbert performance even come from?) Still, a very good start to the postseason and my quest to make some money off the NFL in 2025.
Saturday January 18th – 4:30 PM ET
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
I’m going to lay the points because I think the Chiefs have spent the entire season preparing for this game and what they did in the 2024 regular season is not particularly relevant. I expect Mahomes to look like Mahomes, Kelce to look like Kelce, and Chris Jones is going to make it impossible for CJ Stroud to mount any kind of comeback. It is January. The Chiefs will Chief.
Saturday January 18th – 8:00 PM ET
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)
Since the Hail Maryland, which I was lucky enough to witness in person, these are the score differentials of the Washington games: 5, 1, 8, 8, 23, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3. Since November, they rarely win big, and they rarely lose big.
I think Detroit will win this game, and ultimately win the NFC, but this strikes me as game wherein Washington could either (a) score early and keep it close, or (b) score late for the backdoor cover. Because I’ve got multiple working scenarios, I’ll take the points.
Sunday 4:30 PM ET
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Packers are 7th against the run.
Eagles are 10th against the run.
But I would argue it is far more important for the Packers to establish the run in this game than it is for the Eagles. Jordan Love is not a great quarterback. He’s not going to be able to drop back 40 times Sunday and dice up this Philly secondary without being harassed by their deep front.
Vic Fangio is usually great in these spots; he’ll show Love looks he hasn’t shown another team this season. I wish the line was 2.5, but it’s not. I’ll survive. Lay the points.
Sunday 8:00 PM ET
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
The hardest game for me to predict this weekend.
Tampa just needed to beat a lifeless Saints team Sunday to win the division title, and they struggled mightily. Jayden Daniels has been good in 2024, but he’s still a rookie quarterback starting a playoff game on the road. This feels like the game with the widest range of potential outcomes.
I’m looking to the same stat as I did in the previous game to choose a winner. Tampa allows 97.8 yards per game on the ground, fourth in the league. Washington allows 137.5 yards per game on the ground, 30th in the league. Bucky Irving is the most talked about player this wildcard weekend. Lay the points.
Monday 8:00 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams
This game is entirely about Sam Darnold.
A week ago, the talk around the league was Minnesota committing long term to Darnold and dealing J.J. McCarthy to the highest bidder. But after Darnold laid an egg versus Detroit in arguably the biggest game of his career, will that narrative continue if he lays another in L.A. on Monday night in what is inarguably the biggest game of his career?
I’m rooting for the Darnold career resurgence, but I think he’s going to struggle with serious pressure in this spot. Take the points.
Game they had no business winning became a game they had no business losing. Push. On to Arizona.
— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) October 28, 2024
Chicago Bears 27, Washington Commanders 23
Before the season, I broke up the Bears schedule into three distinct segments:
Segment one was a success. Could the Bears have beaten both the Texans and the Colts? Absolutely. But they also could have lost to the Titans and Rams. 4-2 is a fair representation of the performance we’ve seen from this team over the first six weeks of the season, and 4-2 gives the Bears an opportunity to be playing knockout football in January.
The next evaluative moment in this season will come at the end of Sunday, November 10th. (For those of you not on Twitter, I’ll be presenting one of my favorite films, Sweet Smell of Success, at the Jacob Burns Film Center in Pleasantville, NY that morning.) After these next three games, the Bears will have played (essentially) half their schedule, nine games, and will be able to establish clear win/loss goals for the second and far more difficult half of their schedule.
So, how do these matchups look?
Sunday 10/27 – @ Washington Commanders
General feeling: Toss-up.
The Commanders have been one of the real surprises of the 2024 season, mostly due to their rookie quarterback’s inspiring play. (The Bears fans on Twitter that seem to resent the success of Jayden Daniels need to grow up.) But Washington still doesn’t play much defense and, with two weeks to prepare, the Bears should be expected to (at worst) make this a shootout.
[Side note: I will be in attendance for this game, which essentially guarantees something abnormal will take place.]
Sunday 11/3 (NYC Marathon Sunday!) – @ Arizona Cardinals
General feeling: Lean Bears.
Arizona is a feisty team, but they are awful defensively, and that building in the desert will be at least half transplants from Chicago.
