Kansas City Chiefs 23, Houston Texans 14

• Every Chiefs game looks exactly the same. But one has to imagine that will need to change in the next round if they’ll have a chance to three-peat.

Washington Commanders 45, Detroit Lions 31

• How do the Lions recover from a loss like this? Despite the injuries, they entered Saturday night as nearly 10-point favorites at home against a rookie quarterback. Now, after a humiliating loss, they face an off-season where they could potentially lose both coordinators and faith in their quarterback. Dan Campbell might have the most difficult job to do in the NFL over the next nine months.

Philadelphia Eagles 28, Los Angeles Rams 22

• How do you handicap a game in conditions like that? I think in normal weather, Rams win. But Saquon Barkley and the Eagles offensive line are the most powerful weapons remaining in the postseason.

Buffalo Bills 27, Baltimore Ravens 25

• When full flight, the Ravens felt like the best team in the league this season. But they just lost too many games like this; games they should have won.

4-2 last weekend, losing only the coin flip game between Washington and Tampa and the game everybody lost, Los Angeles at Houston. (Where the hell did that Justin Herbert performance even come from?) Still, a very good start to the postseason and my quest to make some money off the NFL in 2025.

Saturday January 18th – 4:30 PM ET

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

I’m going to lay the points because I think the Chiefs have spent the entire season preparing for this game and what they did in the 2024 regular season is not particularly relevant. I expect Mahomes to look like Mahomes, Kelce to look like Kelce, and Chris Jones is going to make it impossible for CJ Stroud to mount any kind of comeback. It is January. The Chiefs will Chief.

Saturday January 18th – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)

Since the Hail Maryland, which I was lucky enough to witness in person, these are the score differentials of the Washington games: 5, 1, 8, 8, 23, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3. Since November, they rarely win big, and they rarely lose big.

I think Detroit will win this game, and ultimately win the NFC, but this strikes me as game wherein Washington could either (a) score early and keep it close, or (b) score late for the backdoor cover. Because I’ve got multiple working scenarios, I’ll take the points.

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Nobody is playing.

All times ET. Home team in CAPS.

Sunday 3:00 PM – Chiefs at RAVENS (-3)

Those audible cheers

come from the Inner Harbor.

Roquan rejoices.

Sunday 6:30 PM – Lions at 49ERS (-6.5)

They call him “Deebo.”

But his real name is Tyshun.

The Niners need him.

2-2 last weekend, getting shut out on Sunday. This week I’m on the Ravens -3 and the 49ers -6.5. Why? I just think these were clearly the two best teams in the sport and have been destined to meet in Vegas.

All times ET. Home team in CAPS.

Saturday 4:30 PM – Texans at RAVENS (-9)

A battle wages

in the land of McNulty.

The game is the game.

Saturday 8:15 PM – Packers at NINERS (-9.5)

Cover your damn eyes.

Green Bay can beat ANYONE.

They will keep this close.

Sunday 3:00 PM – Bucs at LIONS (-6)

One city makes cars.

One city is all strip clubs.

Baker be dancin’.

Sunday 6:30 PM – Chiefs at BILLS (-3)

My head says Mahomes.

But my heart is in New York,

drenched in Elmo’s sauce.

Last week the picks were 2-4 but in fairness I picked the Steelers expecting them to cover in a blizzard. This week I’m on Baltimore -9, Packers +9.5, Bucs +6, Bills -3.