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Friday Note: Don’t Get Too Hung Up On Practice Reports

| August 9th, 2024

A word to the wise: try not to get too wrapped up in the “results” of individual Training Camp practices. Learning is a process, and not a linear one.

Caleb Williams is a rookie QB, practice “results” will vary — especially since they’re running him & the rest of the #1 offense against the defensive starters, as opposed to the second-string. That’s always going to push a young QB, especially when his defense is reportedly doing nothing to make life easy for him, blitzing him often and challenging his understanding of coverages early.

It’s fun to talk about practice highlights, but Caleb’s growth was always going to be a process — and not a process that will finish by September 8th. I can personally attest to having agonized over each individual Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields Training Camp pass attempt, and as much as I’d love to tell you that those Camp performances signaled anything about their upcoming seasons… they didn’t.

I could wax on about how Caleb’s bar for this season is set by lowly Bears records like “11 total passing TDs” and “2300 passing yards in a season”, but ultimately football is a results-based business. During Training Camp we bog ourselves down in the minutia of each individual rep, each individual handoff, each individual 1-on-1, and each individual 2-Minute-Drill, but the first number that truly matters in the early season is the number the Bears put on the Soldier Field scoreboard as of ~3PM CST on September 8th.

I love to dig deep into the nitty-gritty of football, I love to obsess over the details of every snap, and while I’d love to tell you that preseason results tell us anything about a young QB’s development… they don’t. CJ Stroud’s first two preseason starts saw him complete 9 of 16 passes for 72 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT — he didn’t throw a regular-season INT until Week 6.

All of this to say, enjoy the growth process and don’t let it get to you. Football is fun, after all! And above all else, Bear Down.

Your Turn: What are you looking for in Caleb’s first Preseason start?

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Thoughts from Practice

| August 7th, 2024

I had the chance to attend Bears practice today (thanks to Jeff Berkes of Windy City Gridiron for hooking me up with a ticket when I wasn’t able to land one on Ticketmaster), and want to share some of what I was able to observe.

I’m going to focus mostly on injuries and depth chart, because it’s hard to take too much away from individual performances in one practice.

Injuries

  • Six players had no pads on and did not participate in practice at all today: G Nate Davis, RB Roschon Johnson, LB Noah Sewell, CBs Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson, and S Jaquan Brisker.
    • I did see Gordon and Stevenson doing some running and cutting before practice, so I would guess they’re both fairly close to returning.
  • Several other players joined them on the sidelines as practice wore on, including OT Darnell Wright, WR Collin Johnson, DT Andrew Billings,  DE Montez Sweat, CB Tyrell Smith, and RB Ian Wheeler.
    • Wheeler and Wright have been working their way back from injuries, so maybe partial participation was the plan for them. I’m not sure.
    • Smith’s injury was the only one I saw happen. He dove to the ground while defending a deep pass to DJ Moore in 11-on-11 action and didn’t get up until a trainer had taken a good long look at him. From what I could tell, they were looking at either his left arm or shoulder, and he seemed to be in a lot of pain.
  • Rookie OT Kiran Amegadjie, who has yet to practice after being drafted with an injury he suffered during the season last fall, did some work pushing a blocking sled before practice. Hopefully that’s a good sign that he is nearing a return, though I won’t be shocked if the Bears keep him on the non-football injury list so that they can transition him to IR at the start of the season without him ever taking up a roster spot.

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Zooming in on Coverage: S

| July 31st, 2024

Earlier this offseason, I examined Chicago’s pass rush, and this week I want to shift gears to focus on the other part of pass defense: coverage. We started with CB, looked at LB yesterday, and today we’ll finish by examining the safeties.

Side note: If you read either of the last 2 articles, this one will follow the exact same format and have identical table setup, so hopefully the familiarity makes digesting all of the data a little easier. 

Basic Coverage Stats

Let’s start with a basic look at coverage stats for Chicago’s safeties last year. There were 85 S with 250+ coverage snaps, or 2.7 per team, which makes a convenient threshold for starting players since some teams deploy 3 safety nickel looks fairly frequently. Chicago had 3 safeties qualify in 2023: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, and Elijah Hicks. They also signed two more players this offseason who qualified in Kevin Byard (spent 2023 with Titans and Eagles) and Jonathan Owens (spent 2023 with Packers), so we’ll examine their coverage metrics as well.

  • Ranks compared to the 85 S in the sample are given in parentheses, and for a little context, 43rd would be exactly in the middle.
  • Those in the top 25% (21st or better) are highlighted in green.
  • Those in the bottom 25% (65th or worse) are highlighted in red.
  • All data for this article is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

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Zooming in on Coverage: LB

| July 30th, 2024

Earlier this offseason, I examined Chicago’s pass rush, and this week I want to shift gears to focus on the other part of pass defense: coverage. We looked at CB yesterday, and today we’ll focus on linebackers before finishing tomorrow with a look at the safeties.

Side note: If you read yesterday’s article, this one will follow the exact same format and have identical table setup, so hopefully the familiarity makes digesting all of the data a little easier. 

Linebackers

Let’s start with a basic look at coverage stats for Chicago’s LB last year. There were 66 LB with 250+ coverage snaps, or 2.1 per team, which makes a convenient threshold for starting players. Both Chicago starting LB – Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards – qualified, and I decided to include Jack Sanborn as well even though he missed the cutoff with only 192 coverage snaps. The table below shows how well all three players performed in a variety of coverage metrics compared to their peers. A few quick notes:

  • Ranks compared to the 66 LB in the sample are given in parentheses, and for a little context, 33rd would be exactly in the middle.
  • Those in the top 25% (17th or better) are highlighted in green.
  • Those in the bottom 25% (50th or worse) are highlighted in red.
  • All data for this article is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

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Zooming in on Coverage: CBs

| July 29th, 2024

Earlier this offseason, I examined Chicago’s pass rush, and this week I want to shift gears to focus on the other part of pass defense: coverage. We’ll start today by examining cornerbacks, and then shift to linebackers in part two and and end with safeties in part three.

First Look

Let’s start with a basic look at coverage stats for Chicago’s CB last year. There were 109 CBs with at least 250 coverage snaps, or roughly 3.4 per team, which makes that a convenient threshold for starting players. Chicago had 4 CBs in that sample: Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, and Terell Smith – and the table below shows how well they performed in a variety of coverage metrics compared to their peers. A few quick notes:

  • Ranks compared to the 109 CB in the sample are given in parentheses, and for a little context, 55th would be exactly in the middle.
  • Those in the top 25% (27th or better) are highlighted in green.
  • Those in the bottom 25% (83rd or worse) are highlighted in red.
  • All data for this article is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

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The Perils of “Reality” Television: Previewing the Chicago Bears on HBO’s Hard Knocks

| July 26th, 2024


Fan and media access to NFL training camps is a double-edged sword. On one side, access is fun. Fans seems to genuinely enjoy going to camp practices and reporting what they see on their social feeds. Media members know how voracious the fan hunger is for new NFL content and gets tons of mileage out of their analysis of 7-on-7s and late-practice red zone sessions. And if you have video?!?! Click click click click click click click click click.

But one must always remember that we are in an era, despite this unprecedented access, of intense franchise secrecy. The access is measured, controlled. Teams are not going to show a single supporter or reporter anything that could potentially put them at a competitive disadvantage when they start keeping score in September. And that is what makes the prospect of the Chicago Bears appearing on HBO’s now ubiquitous Hard Knocks series this summer a complicated endeavor.


Hard Knocks Schedule

  • Episode 1 – Tuesday, August 6, 9 p.m. ET
  • Episode 2 – Tuesday, August 13, 9 p.m. ET
  • Episode 3 – Tuesday, August 20, 9 p.m. ET
  • Episode 4 – Tuesday, August 27, 9 p.m. ET
  • Episode 5 – Tuesday, September 3, 9 p.m. ET

Hard Knocks is reality television, and not since the days when Herm Edwards and Rex Ryan were involved has it been particularly good reality television (if such a thing exists). Reality television thrives on big personalities and fabricated drama. The ripped, Australian deckhand and the one-arm chef both like the busty second stew! But only one can make out with her in the hot tub! Which one will it be? (For those of you unfamiliar with Below Deck, those sentences will be gibberish.)

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