Happy Friday everyone! As we head into the Bears’ final preseason game, I want talk about the way we talk about Gervon Dexter Sr — many fans are way, way too fixated on his get-off, and I believeit’s a molehill that’s become a mountain.

Here’s Dexter’s first 10 snaps from the Colts game where I’ve put the moment of the snap in slow-motion — Dexter is never once the last man off the ball, and he even gets off the line first on a few plays. Yet despite Dexter getting off the line well, his play-to-play impact was still too inconsistent throughout this reel — why? Put simply, there are other growth areas within Dexter’s game that are much more important for his future success than simply firing off the ball quickly.

We are way, way too fixated on Gervon Dexter's get-off — it's a molehill that's become a mountain.

Here's Dexter's first 10 snaps from the Colts game where I've slowed the moment of the snap down — he's never once last off the ball, he's even first off in a few plays. It's a… pic.twitter.com/xFsojSeRKJ

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) August 24, 2023

Dexter’s pad level & hand usage need to improve, and I’d like to see him apply & maintain his natural power within each step he takes. Dexter has a bad habit of standing up straight after he & his OL initially make contact and currently it’s hurting his ability to remain powerful as a play progresses.

He’s also clearly raw in his hand-placement, especially as a pass-rusher, but in the reel above we see good news in regards to his improvement — He’s clearly working on new pass-rush moves, including a cross-chop that you only see explosive 3Ts attempt to pull off. Perfecting rush moves takes time, but by mid-season I would hope that he’s found a groove with a go-to rush and can contribute in his rotational reps.

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As we head into the final Chicago Bears’ preseason weekend, it’s about time we start talking through which Bears will survive next Tuesday’s cut-down.

Below I attempted to predict the Bears’ 53-man roster (before any waiver claims) — I surprised myself with some of the decisions I made, but take a look at the list first before reading the justifications of my heinous decisions. My notes are at the bottom.

Offense:

QB: Justin Fields, PJ Walker, Tyson Bagent
FB: Khari Blasingame
RB: Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer
TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis
OL: Braxton Jones, Tevin Jenkins, Cody Whitehair, Nate Davis, Darnell Wright, Lucas Patrick, Ja’Tyre Carter, Larry Borom, Alex Leatherwood
WR: D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Tyler Scott, Equanimeous St. Brown, Velus Jones Jr

Defense:

EDGE: Demarcus Walker, Yannick Ngakoue, Dominique Robinson, Terrell Lewis, Trevis Gipson
DT: Justin Jones, Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter Sr, Zacch Pickens
LB: Tremaine Edmunds, TJ Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, Micah Baskerville, Dylan Cole
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Jaylon Jones
NCB: Kyler Gordon, Josh Blackwell
SAF: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Elijah Hicks, A.J. Thomas

Special Teams:

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In doing research for an upcoming project, I stumbled upon an interesting set of correlations within Fields’ rushing data — as you may know, Justin Fields led the NFL in 2022 with 7.1 Yards/Rush, the best figure of any player since 2014 (assuming a minimum of 100 carries).

That 2014 leader was Russell Wilson, who led the league with 7.2 Yards/Rush. But it’s what Wilson did in the season after 2014 that we care about — in 2015, Russ threw for his first 4,000 yard passing season and never stepped back after doing so.

Wilson’s production (specifically Touchdowns, Y/A, and Total Passing Yards) improved in 2015 because defenses couldn’t allow Russ to run freely and thus sacrificed defenders in coverage to cover him, and obviously we’d love to see the same from Justin Fields in 2023. But, interestingly enough, Wilson’s sack rate remained one of the worst in the league even as he took that 2015 step forward.

Russ was always one to take plenty of sacks, including a 2nd-year season where he recorded a 9.8% sack rate, but seeing his 2014 sack rate (8.5%) repeat in his 2015 season (8.5% sack rate) is a reminder that even if Fields takes a step forward as a passer he’ll continue to take an inordinate amount of sacks compared to his peers. That said, if Fields throws for 4,000+ yards and 34 TDs? I don’t know how much anyone will complain about 45-50 sacks.

But Russell Wilson is just one name — across the league, how successful are QBs that run well?

Surprisingly, the list of NFL QBs that have led the league in Yards/Rush is a list filled with talent:

• Josh Allen (2021)
• Lamar Jackson (2019, 2020)
• Russell Wilson (2014)
• Robert Griffin III (2012)
• Cam Newton (2011)
• Michael Vick (2002, 2004, 2006, 2010)
• Randall Cunningham (1990)

Of this list, only Randall Cunningham (1990) and Michael Vick (2004 & 2006) topped Fields Yards/Rush figure of 7.1 Y/R.

Correlation doesn’t equal causation, but if a QB leads the NFL in this category and stays healthy long-term they historically tend to be good players. Just how good you think the list’s QBs are depends on your perspective on players like Cam Newton (lack of longevity), Lamar Jackson (passed for 3,000+ yards exactly once, though BAL hasn’t helped him), and Michael Vick (never passed for 3,000+ yards in Atlanta), but for a city like Chicago that’s been starved of serviceable QB play for years I’d take the floor that comparisons like Cam Newton impart if it gives me a chance at a ceiling like Josh Allen or Russell Wilson.

With DJ Moore, OL upgrades, a renewed Chase Claypool, boosts at TE, and a second year in the offense, who knows? Maybe Justin Fields’ “Russell Wilson 2015” season is just around the corner. We’ll have to wait and see.

Justin Fields scored THREE times from 50+ yards on the ground in 2022, which no other QB has done in their *total career*.

That doesn't count the 53-yd TD @ MIN that got called back, nor his 60-yd scramble @ DET.

I get "QB rushing is unsustainable", but Fields is different. pic.twitter.com/dmKlMyBzeU

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) May 29, 2023

Your Turn: Do you see Justin Fields as more Russell Wilson or Michael Vick?

For the first time in the Matt Eberflus era, Bears fans were forced to swallow the bitter pill of preseason defeat as Chicago fell to Indianapolis 17-24 over the weekend. The tilt saw both teams rest nearly all of their starters and many of their reserves, but a loss is a loss — with something like that hanging over fans’ heads, it’s a miracle that anyone loyal to the team made it into work today.

But setting aside the sting of defeat, what did we learn about the roster this weekend? I dove into the game’s All-22 tape and went spelunking — here’s what I found:

Guarding our Hearts:

Ja’Tyre Carter picked a great weekend to have another great weekend — with reports that Tevin Jenkins has suffered a leg injury that may shelve him for up to 6 weeks, quality OL depth looks more valuable than ever.

Carter’s form looks great in pass protection, but he’s making his hay as a run blocker and looks forceful as he does — below is a great example of Carter’s handiwork, and as Lucas Patrick continues to miss time in Training Camp I’m curious to see which young lineman the Bears turn to as the next LG.

#Bears Ja'Tyre Carter run blocks like he's got a personal problem with the defense, I love it pic.twitter.com/Ba0khwFQtz

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) August 21, 2023

Dropping Anchor:

Zacch Pickens took a healthy step forward in his second NFL exhibition, but he did so in a way I didn’t see coming — I expected to see him utilize his length & first step to pressure the passer and knife into run gaps, but instead he dropped anchor twice on the goal line and stood up Colts double-teams on both sides of the defensive line. As the primary backup for Andrew Billings, Pickens couldn’tve shown off a more encouraging skill.

Click the clip below to see his 2nd rep in the replies — it’s impressive stuff from a rookie known to struggle doing exactly this in college. I’d like to see him win a few more reps in run defense this weekend before making any sweeping declarations, but in the meantime it’s nice to see the Bears helping their rookies hone key skills.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1693445818810781794

Breaking Down Bagent:

Tyson Bagent will be the subject for tomorrow’s (tonight’s) Dissecting a Drive, so I won’t go into too much detail here.

That said, I put together a quick breakdown on one of my favorite of Bagent’s throws — a simple quick screen that, upon further inspection, I think Tyson audibled into. Turn your sound on for this one:

Tyson Bagent made plenty of plays on his 17-play TD drive, but this quick screen to Dante Pettis stands out — if you look closely, you'll see that Bagent audibled into this after seeing the Colts show a CB Blitz.

I LOVE that the #Bears UDFA rookie is confident enough to make… pic.twitter.com/zPUBXqS1nk

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) August 21, 2023

Also, given that the Bears’ QB2 looked like this on Saturday Night, Tyson’s calm demeanor couldn’tve been a more welcome sight. He’s a very fun young player to watch.

Here's All-22 of every PJ Walker pass/dropback from last night's #Bears game.

Honest take: There aren't many plays to be made on his snaps. He doesn't do himself favors w/ the sacks & the early stumble, but these snaps aren't much to analyze.

Stick with your eval from CAR tape pic.twitter.com/MIiSUdHgRi

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) August 21, 2023

I’ll update this article throughout the day, so stay tuned!

Your Turn: What stuck out to you during Saturday Night’s game?

Happy Thursday everyone! The Bears’ defense reportedly showed out in their first joint practice with Indianapolis, giving the Colts’ offense early and finishing well in the late 2-minute drill. They’re playing with energy, finishing drills, and trash talking throughout practice — Adam Jahns writes that the unit has an ‘edge’, and that’s exactly what they’ll need throughout the 2023 season.

But which players are catalyzing the Bears’ defensive attitude shift? What worked last Saturday? What didn’t? To find out, let’s dissect the opening drive of last weekend’s preseason game and see what Alan Williams and the Bears’ defensive starters are cooking in prep for the 2023 season.

Our first two episodes of Dissecting a Drive covered the offense exclusively, so it’s about time we dive into the Bears’ defensive scheme! Lucky for us, Saturday’s Bears game provided us with a 12-play Tennessee touchdown drive that’s ripe for reviewing.

Keep in mind that because it’s the preseason, this is the most vanilla flavor of the Bears’ defensive structure you’ll see all year. That said, I can confirm that the Bears’ defensive bones are still in place throughout the drive — you’ll see a healthy dose of Cover 3, Cover 2, and Tampa 2 throughout this video and throughout the 2023 season, regardless of how the Bears tailor their calls to each opponent going forward.

In this drive, we see:

• A calmer, much-improved Kyler Gordon
• How Tennessee used pre-snap motion to create leverage for their run blockers
• The good, the bad, and the ugly from Dominique Robinson, Andrew Billings, and Rasheem Green
• Jack Sanborn’s big hits, big misses, and the impact Tremaine Edmunds will have on this defense
• TJ Edwards’ physicality and presence within the Bears’ defense
• How Alan Williams used subtle shifts within the Defensive Line Front to create mismatches for his DTs
• Tyrique Stevenson’s ups and downs
• And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

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With the Bears’ first preseason game in the books and no practice news to speak of, the only noteworthy thing that happened in Chicago football over the last few days was Nate Davis returning to practice.

From what I understand, Nate Davis has been nursing a legitimate injury (as opposed to skipping practice) so it’s great to see him back on the field. He should be a major help to Darnell Wright as a consistent pass-protector that does a great job handling his own business and helping his Tackle when needed. Davis is known for being a mauler in the run game, so get to know his pass pro abilities while you still have the chance — if he’s fully healthy by Week 1, they should show out against a tough GB front.

Nate Davis (the new #Bears Guard) does a really good job of keeping his base in pass pro — he's got very quick feet, meaning he consistently stays between his man & the QB, plus he keeps his head-up and catches stunts well.

Keep an eye on the RG here. You'll like what you see. pic.twitter.com/XpCRbzRhqe

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) March 14, 2023

Speaking of tough fronts, is there anybody on the Bears’ DL that can back up Andrew Billings?

Billings looked like the clear largest defensive lineman on the Bears last Saturday, but we saw a few examples of the burst & power he can bring to the Bears’ interior line once the Titans fought their way to the goal line — if Billings can capably take on double-teams in the run game and emphatically win his single-block opportunities, he may change the calculus for a Bears’ run defense that sorely needs a space-eater in the middle.

It’s a big year for the former Baylor Bear — if he shows out in Chicago, he may finally get the multi-year deal I imagine he’s been chasing since 2019.

#Bears new Nose Tackle Andrew Billings brings a healthy dose of size and violence to a D-Line that sorely needs it.

He's a decent interior pocket-squeezer and eats up space in the run game well. Check out some of the battles on this reel — he's not an easy man to move! pic.twitter.com/Jd9FFh5tbg

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) March 23, 2023

Your Turn: How are you feeling about Davis and Billings so far this offseason?

Editor’s Note: In the future, we’ll make have a GameDay post and a Postgame post of some sort — it’s preseason for all of us, and those two articles totally slipped my mind. Thank you for bearing with us as we transition!

It’s official: The 2023 Chicago Bears are undefeated!

Joking aside, the Bears got their first taste of 2023 football as they took on the Tennessee Titans last Saturday and plenty of players showed out for Chicago as they did. The Bears’ offensive starters scored easily on their only two drives (which somehow still set Twitter aflame) and the defense recovered from giving up the opening touchdown to muster 8 sacks, 4 takeaways, and a pesky performance overall.

To break down everything that happened in one article would create an illegible beast, so in an effort to keep things clean we’re going to split the analysis across Monday and Tuesday — we’ll start today with the Defense and continue with the Offense tomorrow.

Editor’s Note: Check back with this article throughout the day — as I produce more All-22 cutups, I’ll update this article to include more analysis 

Saturday’s Standouts:

• Rookie CB Tyrique Stevenson had as impressive a debut as a rookie could have, especially given that the Bears played so much vanilla Cover 2 and Cover 3 that any outside CB would’ve struggled to shine. Last week on DBB we dove deep into Stevenson’s toolkit, and you could already see a notable improvement in his tackling form on Saturday — despite often needing to charge downhill and make tackles underneath, he completed every tackle he attempted, which is saying something when you end the day with 7 solo tackles!
  • Stevenson received a warm welcome to the NFL in only his first play, but I loved the resiliency he displayed throughout the rest of the half. He set the edge in the run game, he played sticky in limited man coverage reps, and gave Bears fans plenty to get excited about in his debut action. I love this kid & can’t wait to watch his growth.

Welcome to the NFL, Rookie!

The big gain that #Bears CB Tyrique Stevenson allowed came on a Titans mid-play adjustment — Stevenson blanketed his man early (even cutting in front for the ball) but never saw the WR's spin-to-space coming.

Better now than Week 1! pic.twitter.com/e7irvFdk2Z

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) August 14, 2023

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The Bears’ offense was one of the worst in the NFL in 2022 for a variety of reasons. I have already highlighted issues with personnel on the offensive line, running back, and wide receiver, and looked in depth at some of the ways quarterback Justin Fields struggled in his sophomore campaign.

Today I want to take a closer look at play caller Luke Getsy to see what we can learn about how he masked and/or contributed to Chicago’s struggles. With that in mind, I looked at how Chicago’s play calling compared to the rest of the NFL at difference down and distance scenarios. All statistics are from Pro Football Reference’s Game Play Finder.

Two quick important notes:

• In order to keep game situation from skewing the data, I only looked at the first three quarters.
• I also explored data only between the 20s to avoid field position impacting the play calls and how defenses played.

1st Down

Let’s start with a look at 1st down, which is about the most neutral situation an offense can be in. The table below shows how frequently and effectively the Bears ran and passed the ball compared to their NFL peers. Chicago’s rank is shown, and any values in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while those in the bottom 25% are highlighted in red.

A few thoughts:

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I don’t know about you, but I loathe uncertainty.

Will Justin Fields take the next step this year?

Can any of the Bears’ young DL step forward and save their pass rush?

Chicago will finally beat the Packers on Week 1, right?

Questions like this eat at me whenever I think about the 2023 season, and for good reason — each question’s answer is a massive domino that could swing Chicago’s year.

But as excited as I am that the Bears are back in pads today at Halas Hall, I want to caution everyone from drawing any hard conclusions from these football practices — after all, Training Camp isn’t the indicator we tend to want to make it, for better and for worse.

Us fans, so starved for football after 7 long months of offseason, want to take every video clip and use it as proof of QB progress, the skill of a rookie WR, or even the efficacy of a Defensive Back, but in reality these football practices are so full of chaotic experimentation, new installs of offensive/defensive terminology, coaches pushing boundaries, and rapid chemistry-building on both sides of the ball that mistakes become common (even intended) and lead to sloppy practices like the Bears had just yesterday.

To some, Fields throwing multiple INTs in a practice may seem like cause for alarm. On that note, take a look at early reports from the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals’ first day in pads and see what beat reporters had to say about the soon-to-be AFC Champions:

woooooof https://t.co/uhLNcoVAWy pic.twitter.com/ZPyjftScBk

— charles (“you look good” – andy reid) mcdonald (@FourVerts) August 4, 2021

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