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Checking Tape From an Ugly Game in Detroit

| November 22nd, 2023

Last night I dove deep into the Bears’ tape from Sunday’s abysmal loss in Detroit — throughout the stream I talked through:

  • What fueled the good parts of the Bears’ Sunday offense?
  • Who stood out on the Bears’ offensive line? Who was left lacking?
  • What made Chicago’s late playcalling so conservative? How did that affect their scheme?
  • Where are the Bears’ coaches making life harder on their players? How can they fix those issues?
  • What did the Bears do so well early to create Jared Goff’s turnovers? How can they build on their successes?
  • How did the Lions exploit the Bears late?
  • Rants & ravings about the future of the Bears
  • And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: What are your Thanksgiving plans?

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233 Comments

JT O’Sullivan Breaks Down Justin Fields

| November 21st, 2023

I was late starting my re-watch of the Bears’ game this week, so in the spirit of Thanksgiving I’m thankful for other content creators — JT O’Sullivan has a fabulous breakdown on a large majority of the Bears’ offense posted to his YouTube channel, and I’ll cover the defense later this evening.

If you like in-depth breakdowns, JT is your guy. Give it a look.

Your Turn: Which Bears player impressed you the most last Sunday?

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272 Comments

Reflecting on Matt Eberflus’ Latest Unbelievable Loss

| November 20th, 2023

To be honest with you, I still can’t believe the Bears managed to lose that game yesterday.

Statistically speaking, it was a historic loss — it’s the first time any team lost in regulation with a +3 turnover margin and 40+ minutes time of possession (Teams were 48-0 prior to Sunday), it’s a loss that saw ESPN qualify Chicago with an even higher Win Probability than their peak in the Denver game (98.4% today versus 98.1% in Week 4), and because it’s a divisional game you can be sure Lions fans will never allow this game to be forgotten.

But beyond that, beyond the nearly historic levels of embarrassment that Matt Eberflus has left the franchise answering questions about in postgame press conferences, today’s loss was a grim reminder of a truth we’ve all known for some time now:

Matt Eberflus’ football identity simply does not win in the modern NFL.

Eberflus coaches like every coach I grew up watching back in the early 2000s — defensively, he wants a team that’s simultaneously passive in their zone coverages but also aggressive in taking the ball away. Offensively, he wants a ball-control ground attack that eats up clock, churns out 1st downs, and protects the football at all costs. Today, he couldn’tve asked for more from his team:

  • Four turnovers on defense (finishing +3 on the day)
  • Clean game from his offense (one turnover, more 1st downs than Detroit)
  • 250+ combined yards from his QB
  • & and outstanding clock-killing drive late that left Detroit with less than 4:15 on the clock to pull off a miracle.

But, despite nearly everything playing out exactly according to Eberflus’ plan, Flus’ conservative nature continued to leave the door open for Detroit to creep back into the game because of the decisions Flus made in the highest leverage situations.

When Chicago scored in the late 3rd quarter to go up 19-14, Chicago very obviously should’ve attempted a 2-point conversion and tried to go up a full 7 points. A 5-point lead is as good as a 6-point lead, but a 7-point lead protects you against a potential opposing score — instead, Chicago kicked the extra point. Surely that won’t come into play later.

Then, as Chicago failed to convert a 3rd & 1 on their ensuing drive, the difference between a 6-point lead and a 7-point lead began to affect Eberflus’ decision-making — despite the Bears’ excellent record since Week 2 in 4th & 1/inches situations, Eberflus needed protection against an opposing touchdown. A 9-point lead is a 2-score game, whereas a failed conversion (no matter how unlikely) would’ve left the Bears vulnerable. Eberflus kicked, thus setting up what ultimately became Flus’ defining moment in this football game.

The Bears offense grinds their way down to the Detroit 23 to set up a 3rd & 7. The score is 23-14 and Chicago has killed almost 7 minutes of clock — a first down almost assuredly wins this game, as a conversion and the ensuing 3 plays would cost Detroit too much time (brings the clock near 2 minutes or begins burning timeouts). But what did Matt Eberflus do?

They ran the ball between the tackles into a 7-man box. They had 6 blockers. The free man picked up RB Roschon Johnson immediately and the play was stopped for a 2-yard gain. They played for the Field Goal, and they got what they wanted.

Holding only a 9-point lead, Matt Eberflus coached his team afraid of a Detroit reversal. Kicking the field goal ensured that Detroit needed 2 touchdowns to win. But had Chicago shown any aggression earlier in going for the 2-point conversion up 5, they could’ve entered that 3rd down with a 10-point lead and might have coached 3rd & 7 unafraid of Detroit scoring a touchdown & field goal in quick succession. They could’ve played to win the game.

But instead, they played not to lose it. They followed a decision-making pattern that’s become antiquated and they got punished for doing so. Once the Lions scored to bring the game within 5, nothing could’ve been more predictable than Chicago’s back-to-back runs up the gut that landed the Bears in an impossible 3rd & 10 with too much time left on the clock. Unsurprisingly, Chicago failed to convert, surrendered the lead, and lost a game that even Eberflus’ harshest critics thought he had in the bag.

This is Matt Eberflus’ legacy — he’s a true throwback to 2006, a conservative defensive mind that emphasizes playing hard within archaic defensive schemes & ground-and-pound offense, but his total lack of aggression speaks to his failure to innovate on both sides of the ball. In a league of innovators, he will always be (at least) one step behind.

He’s not the guy. He simply cannot stay past 2023. Thankfully, with now two games like this on Eberflus’ 3-8 record, George McCaskey would be hard-pressed to keep him.

We’ll save Good, Bad, and Ugly for tomorrow. Today, keep the focus on Flus.

Postgame Podcast:

Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through the ups, the downs, the ins, and the outs of Chicago’s latest loss here:

Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?

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Previewing Fields’ Return Against the Detroit Lions

| November 16th, 2023

This game in Motown may be one of Matthew Eberflus’ last chances to show Chicago’s powers-that-be that the Bears are in good hands.

His starting quarterback is back in action, his offensive line is finally healthy, and his defense has been on a tear recently — Detroit may be very good (and an 8.5pt favorite over Chicago), but divisional games aren’t easily won in the NFL. If Matt Eberflus has something up his sleeve, now is the time to show it.

In this episode of Bear With Us, Nick and I dive into…

  • The driving forces behind the Bears’ defensive turnaround (& their sustainability)
  • A review of Matt Eberflus & Luke Getsy’s coaching performance to this point
  • A full unit-by-unit preview of the Bears-Lions game
    • Including a great discussion on the value of Chicago’s healthy offensive line
  • A look at the Bears’ (and Panthers’) schedule beyond this weekend’s contest
  • Various draft-day scenarios (Young QB vs Trade Down/WR) & what Fields can do to change our choices over these next 7 weeks
  • And much, much more…

It’s one of our best episodes yet in my opinion — check it out and let me know what you think!

Bonus: Previewing Keon Coleman, a Draft Target to know

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Are Bears in Midst of Defensive Revolution?

| November 15th, 2023

Last night I dove deep into the Bears’ tape from the now-old Thursday night game in New Orleans — throughout the stream I talked through:

  • What fueled the good parts of the Bears’ defense?
  • What moved the ball against Chicago and why?
  • Who stood out in the Bears’ defensive backfield? Who was left lacking?
  • Where are the Bears’ coaches making life harder on their players? How can they fix those issues?
  • What did Jack Sanborn do to make so many plays in relief of Tremaine Edmunds?
  • Which DBs stood out positively? Did any stand out negatively?
  • What caused Tyson Bagent’s struggles within the game? What can be fixed?
  • How do the Lions aim to beat you on offense?
  • And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: What, if anything, are you hoping to see change on Sunday?

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90 Comments

Reviewing Bears’ Defensive Standouts From Thursday Night

| November 14th, 2023

Yesterday I finally got access to the Bears’ All-22 from Thursday Night — let’s review some defensive highlights.

Andrew Billings is the beating heart of the Bears’ run defense

First off, Andrew Billings is so much fun to watch work. I’m a sucker for a big dude in the trenches making plays, and that’s exactly what #97 has been for Chicago all season long.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1724198523191673305

He’s a force to be reckoned with, even when double-teamed at the point of attack — here, on 3rd & 1, he simply refuses to be moved. I’m happy to see him extended.

Bryce Young and the turf became well-acquainted throughout the game

The Panthers’ rookie signal-caller spent the majority of Thursday Night on his back — sometimes that was the fault of Carolina’s simple route concepts/poor OL play, but sometimes you saw nice moments from the Bears’ defensive line that seemed to get after him in a hurry.

Justin Jones created more pressures than I remembered on re-watch, Gervon Dexter had his moments, but Montez Sweat was all over Bryce Young from jump street and made a physical impact on every play he could.

First, here he is chasing Young down on a bootleg…

And later, a Bears blitz got Montez Sweat free off the edge and Sweat made Young pay the price as he got rid of the ball.

It was a nice, physical game for Sweat. He rushed the passer better than any other Bears’ defensive lineman and often provided the only pressure Chicago could muster on some plays — even if that pressure wasn’t more than just moving Bryce Young off his spot.

Sweat does seem to have an edge to him he wasn’t playing with in Carolina, so I can’t help but wonder if his role as a leader on this defense may be invigorating him. Either way, Carolina certainly felt his presence throughout the game.

The Bears’ young DBs popped

Kyler Gordon had far & away his best game as a Bear, and if anything I’m disappointed all I have is one highlight to show from his performance.

He was a demon in run defense and a problem Carolina couldn’t solve in both man and zone coverages. He hunted short throws underneath and matched feet with receivers both down the field and over the middle — considering that Gordon was one of the worst CBs in the NFL last year, it’s been inspiring to see the strides he’s made as he’s learned to channel his agility while also growing as man-cover defender.

He started the year hot with a nice game against Green Bay too, so here’s hoping games like this are signs of future play to come.

It wouldn’t be one of my reviews without my being unnecessarily positive on Tyrique Stevenson, and you’d better believe I’m not going to stop now!

Stevenson and Johnson both took far too many penalties throughout Thursday Night’s game, but my expectations for rookie DBs are so low that I don’t mind seeing them from #29 — he’s getting better every game at managing his own physicality with WRs, and it’s leading to more and more reps that look like the one listed below.

Of course, I’d still love to see Stevenson given more chances to press his WR… but that’s a conversation for another day.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1724192243714498731

Gervon Dexter seems to be settling in

The recent Bears’ 2nd rounder struggled with basic movement as recently as the preseason, but seems to be settling in nicely at the halfway point of the season — the cross-chop he’s been working on since August is starting to show fruit, though the fruit isn’t ripe yet. Still, it’s nice to see that he’s improving.

Dexter is a project, but the juice feels worth the squeeze when you remember how naturally strong he is. Reps like the one below (where he simply throws his man aside) provide a light at the end of Dexter’s developmental tunnel — if he can learn to strike more efficiently and access that kind of power-base more often, he could be dangerous as both a 1-Tech & 3-Tech defensive lineman.

He still has plenty of technical issues to clean up, but he should be able to hone in on those issues as he gets more playing time — he played 29 snaps on Thursday, more than Andrew Billings, and if that’s any indication of how the coaches will continue to deploy him I imagine he’ll have plenty of time to work on his problem areas.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1724211641242259951

Note: Zacch Pickens also had quite a good game, though he only played 12 snaps to Gervon’s 29. I’ll try to get a clip or two up of his handiwork later.

Your Turn: What stood out to you in Thursday’s defensive effort?

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265 Comments

Chicago Bears Dominated Their Foe, Secure Future On Thursday Night

| November 10th, 2023

Coming out of halftime, Bears’ Head Coach Matt Eberflus promised the nation that he ‘had tricks up his sleeve’ in the 2nd half of Chicago’s game against the Carolina Panthers. He may not have had much more in mind than a battering D’Onta Foreman touchdown run and a suffocating defensive gameplan, but he reached into his sleeve and pulled out a gritty, ugly win on Thursday Night Football all the same.

Sometimes we don’t ask how the win happened, we simply ask how many wins the team can provide. Chicago’s latest win keeps their own playoff hopes alive (even if only technically) while pushing Carolina down a path that the Panthers may not recover from this season — with Chicago holding onto Carolina’s 2024 1st round draft selection, that’s great news for the Bears indeed.

ESPN Analytics list the Bears as having a 42% chance at the 2024 NFL draft’s #1 overall pick, with even better odds that they land a top 2 pick rather than exclusively #1. That’s great news for Chicago regardless of whether you want to see the Bears reset at Quarterback or not — as we saw in last year’s DJ Moore trade, high picks are valuable commodities that create extraordinary opportunities for the teams that possess them.

Thursday’s contest was anything but a pretty game, and chances are the results didn’t change your opinion of Matt Eberflus one way or another. If you didn’t like him before, his conservative offensive game-plan, goofy halftime quote, and bizarre decision to kick the extra point with the score at 10-15 (rather than going for 2 and playing for a 7-point lead) likely didn’t sway you now. But if the offensive line’s recent chutzpah and the defense’s clear improvement have gotten you thinking about what Flus’ vision could look like given another offseason, I wouldn’t blame you for that either.

Next week’s Detroit game looms large for Matt Eberflus — if he wants to make a statement, he’ll need to make it in his trip to Motown. But between then and now, enjoy 11 days of that winning feeling.

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

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Checking the Tape: Bears Offense in the Superdome

| November 7th, 2023

It’s a short week for us fans as the Bears get set to play what may just be the biggest remaining game on their schedule — whether you’re a fan cheering for Bears draft position or simply a fan cheering for the Bears, Chicago has a chance to all but lock in a Top 2 Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft with a win over a bad Carolina Panthers team that plays nothing but tough teams (and Green Bay) down the stretch.

But we’ll get to Thursday soon — first, let’s take a look back at what the tape said about Sunday’s offensive showing. My observations (along with associated cut-ups) are listed below:

Sections today are:

  • Discussion of each of the 5 major Offensive Linemen
  • Talking through some of the ‘gross’ within the Bears’ offense
  • Where Bagent won, where Bagent lost, what I’d like to see from Bagent on Thursday
  • A quick Cole Kmet mention

Teven Jenkins played phenomenally

Nobody in a Bears uniform plays with the natural nastiness that Teven Jenkins does, especially when run-blocking. #76 finished run after run against New Orleans and looked like a down-in and down-out leader as he did.

He had a great day in pass protection as well. If he can stay healthy for the rest of the year, I’d hope Ryan Poles explores an offseason extension.

Here’s another look at Teven mauling open a run lane later in the game…

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Disappointed, But Not Surprised

| November 6th, 2023

I’ve been trying to come up with something passion-fueled to say this morning, but honestly yesterday’s Bears game was one of the most ho-hum performances I’ve ever seen.

The Bears’ offense surprised early and moved the ball with ease, but ultimately their UDFA Rookie QB struggled with turnovers late and became yet another Bears QB that can’t seem to score points in the 4th quarter.

The Bears’ defense held the Saints’ offense to a hair over 300 yards on the day (and a very solid 4.9 yards per play), but when you take a look at Derek Carr’s passing chart it becomes clear that Chicago didn’t challenge the Saints to do anything dangerous and the Saints offense willfully obliged. For the fourth time in the Eberflus era, this resulted in zero sacks and zero takeaways on what must’ve felt like an easy day for New Orleans.

This game played out so similarly to the rest of the Matt Eberflus era that I don’t have it in me to get mad about results like this anymore. You could say it was ‘Disappointing, but not Surprising’ and I’d agree with you. Chicago’s defensive head coach needed his offense to be the leaders today, and ultimately that was too tall an ask for a Rookie UDFA QB playing against DVOA’s 8th toughest defense in football. As usual, that added up to a loss.

Oh well. Onwards to Thursday!

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Good:

  • Cole Kmet, Take A Bow. Kmet has been a lightning rod for criticism ever since Matt Nagy picked him in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft, but against New Orleans the 24-year-old tight end stepped up in a huge way. He capped off the Bears’ first drive with the most physical catch of his life (turning a potentially dangerous throw into a touchdown in the process), added another score just two drives later on a perfect block/release route, and stacked big first downs for his quarterback throughout the rest of the game.
    • Most Fantasy Football experts have identified a Tight End’s ‘breakout age’ to be between 25 & 26 — could Cole Kmet’s best days be ahead of him? Days like Sunday make you believe he just might have a ‘next step’ in him.
  • Who doesn’t love good offensive line play? Darnell Wright played another stout game on the right side, Teven Jenkins buried multiple defenders in the run game, and Braxton Jones slotted in at Left Tackle as if he hadn’t missed any time at all… until his coaches pulled him and set him & Larry Borom on another one of the OL Rotations we’ve become accustomed to in Chicago. Still, the young core of the offensive line controlled the line of scrimmage for the majority of the game — nothing could be more important for the Bears’ future than seeing that become consistent.
    • NFL Next Gen Stats has Tyson Bagent’s Time To Throw clocked at 3.29 seconds, yet the young QB only took 2 sacks on 30 dropbacks — I’d call that a credit to Chicago’s offensive line, especially since New Orleans’ EDGE Rushers are a difficult pair to keep at bay.
  • The Defense tackled well, but I’m waiting for the All-22 to assign credit. Everyone flew around throughout the day — Jack Sanborn, TJ Edwards, Montez Sweat, and all the DBs made tackles chasing down RBs and cutting down underneath WRs. Ultimately the performance wasn’t enough to keep New Orleans at bay, but the broadcast copy didn’t seem to point the finger at any particular defensive player moreso than the scheme itself. The players played the scheme admirably.

The Bad

  • Tyson Bagent, rookie or not, was too chaotic down the stretch. Tyson Bagent had a fabulous first half — he distributed the football, he took shots past the line of scrimmage, he targeted NFL windows, and he navigated pockets with poise. Unfortunately, as the Saints defense shifted away from Zone coverage and mixed in more Man coverage looks, windows got tighter for Bagent as the clock ticked down and it seems nerves got the better of the young signal caller. Suffice to say, no QB is going to succeed when they turn the ball over three times in the 4th quarter.
    • A big-picture note on Bagent: Too many on the internet laid unreasonable expectations on a UDFA rookie and are now acting disappointed that he looks like a rookie QB. I’m not a fan of that. Tyson Bagent only started repping the Bears’ in-season offense 6 weeks ago (he was surely running scout team until he was named the backup in Week 5), so he’s learning what he can & can’t do against NFL starting defenses on the job. If anything, I’m surprised a performance like this didn’t happen sooner.
    • In the bigger picture, Bagent showed during the first half that he can operate an NFL offense efficiently when his run game is working for him and the score is close. That is much more than anyone should’ve expected from a UDFA Rookie QB, especially given that his background compares better to 5th round pick Clayton Tune and UDFA Veteran Backup Brett Rypien than other starters around the league. The moment he started getting compared to Justin Fields, Brock Purdy, and other starters was the moment he’d already vastly exceeded expectations — don’t let four nasty turnovers in his 2nd road start seal your opinion of him.
  • I hate this staff’s willingness to rotate OL. I’ve never seen an organization so willing to create chaos on the offensive line for the sake of ‘getting a guy some work’ — the only traditional times we see offensive lines change mid-game is when players get hurt, but this Bears org willingly creates that change when they rotate in offensive linemen coming off of injuries. I don’t want to be blind to an injured player’s stamina/conditioning, but is it really so surprising that Tyson Bagent’s strip sack came with Larry Borom in the game? I can’t (and won’t) pretend to understand how the rotation helps.
  • The defensive game plan will never stop frustrating me. Eddie Jackson ‘said that on film, [the Bears] saw a Saints team that threw it downfield. They expected more chances at INTs’. I don’t know why they expected that after a week where Justin Herbert checked the ball down to extreme success. The Bears’ defensive willingness to call Cover 2/Tampa 2 with a 4-down rush opens them up to major gashes underneath when they don’t tackle. It also opens up the middle of the field when their linebackers overreact to Play Action handoffs. Want to guess where New Orleans made their hay?

The Ugly

  • ‘Playing the Vets’ defeats the purpose of the season. Gervon Dexter & Zacch Pickens got less than 15 snaps each despite Dexter clearly making strides. Tyrique Stevenson got benched as the game got close despite Carr rarely testing the outside boundary. Matt Eberflus clearly smelled a chance to win his 6th game in his Bears tenure and elected to play experienced players over the rookies that stand to be part of this organization for longer than he does, and I see that as a glaring lack of understanding.
    • I mean no disrespect to Jaylon Jones in saying this — the former UDFA has played well when given chances throughout the 2023 season, and you truly can never have too many good DBs. But I didn’t see Tyrique do anything bench-worthy before Jaylon got sent in the game. To me, this felt like a coach under pressure trying to ‘control what he can control’ — I’m not a fan. Do what’s best for the organization and get rewarded by the rest of the league.
  • The Bears’ inability to close out games is a disease. The Quarterback has changed, the Wide Receivers have changed, the Offensive Line has largely changed, but one truth still remains — once the 4th quarter starts, the Bears’ offense can’t pass the ball. The defense gave them four chances to simply tie the game, and all four ended in either a turnover or a 3-and-out. Eventually, the coaching staff has to answer for results this consistent.

Postgame Podcast:

Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through the ups, the downs, the ins, and the outs of Chicago’s latest loss here:

Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?

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201 Comments

Hits Just Keep Coming for the Chicago Bears

| November 2nd, 2023

Just when you thought the Bears’ season couldn’t get any worse, it got worse.

The Chicago Bears have now lost a second coach in this miserable 2023 season, firing RB coach David Walker due to something involving Human Resources. It’s apparently not enough that the team loses on the field, but they continue to lose off the field as well.

Hopefully they make sure to keep their lawn mowers locked up tight over the next few days.

In better news, new Chicago EDGE Montez Sweat seems to be on-track to play against the Saints on Sunday. He’ll provide a major boost on the edge, adding premiere run defense and solid pass-rush to a defense that currently can’t get enough of either.

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