The Chicago Bears’ Playoff Hunt Is On?

It’d have sounded unbelievable a month ago, but Matt Eberflus may have turned the 2023 Chicago Bears around.

What was once a hapless team with a bottom-3 defense that couldn’t intentionally stop a 3rd & long has become a team that dominates the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, pressures passers into mistakes downfield, and plays a clean, balanced brand of offense that turns opening game scripts & quality field position into the points their defense needs to win games.

It hasn’t always been a pretty formula, but since September’s 0-4 start it’s been a winning one. Eberflus left Detroit weeks ago in desperate need of a statement — now, after a pair of divisional wins & a two-score pounding of the division-leading Detroit Lions, he’s made his statement is loud and clear.

This team is young & hungry. They make life hell on quarterbacks & Jared Goff is no exception — Goff’s 5 interceptions against the Bears equal the 5 interceptions he’s thrown against the rest of his opponents combined. Their super-athlete quarterback, Justin Fields, has the burst to turn a sure sack into an explosive run at any moment.

https://twitter.com/SInow/status/1733947655779156111

This team has plenty of warts, and there’ll be plenty of time to discuss them later. With the Carolina Panthers in a death spiral, every game begs questions about what to do with the #1 overall pick.

But even if for only one day, enjoy this win. After all, pending the Packers’ results , your Chicago Bears remain only two games away from an NFC Wild Card spot.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1733978114596987200

We’ll save more detailed discussions about player performance, this game’s meaning, and everything else for another day. For now, raise a toast to a divisional Victory Monday — Go Bears!

Postgame Podcast:

Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through the ups, the downs, the ins, and the outs of Chicago’s latest win here:

Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?

As we inch ever closer towards Sunday’s game, the Chicago Bears stand a pivot point — the results of these next 5 games may very well decide the direction of the biggest Bears offseason in recent memory, and if Head Coach Matt Eberflus wants to be on the safe side of that decision he’ll need to start winning games soon.

Could the Bears spark a win streak off of a divisional home defense? Cole Kmet seems to think so, but with a hungry Detroit team visiting town on a day that’s slated for snowy, cold weather, all we should expect is a knock-down, drag-out fight.

Anything could happen — after all, if Chicago manages to finish the season 9-8 they may very well land an NFC Wild Card spot. But before us fans dare to dream of the playoffs, first Chicago must force these Lions to settle a debt Detroit incurred only a few weeks ago. The Bears had the Lions within their grasp but let them slip away… if they’re to surge this season, they’ll have to start by winning on Sunday.

There’s enough within this game to unpack that Nick & I managed to record our longest Bear With Us episode yet — in this episode, Nick and I dive into…

• How can we work to talk about Justin Fields as rationally as possible? What does he need to show by the end of the year?
• What on earth has happened to the Lions’ defense?
• Where are the Lions winning on offense? Where are they losing?
• How does a healthy Bears team match up with this Detroit squad?
• What does this game mean for every Bear involved
• What have we learned about defense in the NFL from Eberflus’ 2023 season?
• Is the league as down on Luke Getsy as most Bears fans are?
• And much, much more…

I know I say this often, but this really is one of our best episodes yet — check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: How do you feel about this weekend’s contest?

Last night I dove deep into the All-22 tape from both Caleb Williams & Drake Maye’s 2023 season to see what all the hype is about — throughout the stream I talked through:

• Where is Caleb Williams winning? Where is he losing?
• Where is Drake Maye winning? Where is he losing?
• How does each QB’s offensive scheme support them? How well do they play within it?
• When plays break down, how does each player attempt to control the chaos?
• Rants & ravings about the future of the Bears
• And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: Do you even want the Bears to draft a new QB? Do you have a preference on who?

Football happened yesterday! And just in case you didn’t check yesterday’s scores, let me give you the highlights of what mattered for the Bears:

• The New England Patriots couldn’t score 7 points on the Chargers and thus fell at home, leaving them at #2 in the draft order.
  • The Patriots’ offense is BAD — their passing offense displays all the hallmarks of dysfunctional offense (OL protection issues, a QB that holds the ball too long, and WRs that can’t catch the opportunities delivered to them), their rushing offense is awful, and now that Bailey Zappe has officially taken over for Mac Jones it’s hard to imagine the Patriots finding a spark to rally around. Offensive Coordinator Bill O’Brien is likely out of motivational tricks, but with a winnable Thursday Night game in Pittsburgh on the horizon I hope he and Belichick can find some Patriot Magic on the short week.
• The Arizona Cardinals topped the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road, moving to 3-10 on the season and all-but excusing themselves from the race for a Top 2 pick.
  • Kyler Murray and former 2nd round pick Trey McBride make a dynamic combination and the two stuck it to Pittsburgh to the tune of 89 yards & a score on 8 catches (9 targets). Arizona’s defense didn’t win their side of the ball so much as Pittsburgh lost it, but Zona’s offense didn’t let bad weather slow them down as they piled up a 17-3 lead and watched Pittsburgh squirm. Will Arizona win a game outside of their Christmas Eve tilt in Chicago? If they plan to try, they’ll need Kyler Murray to keep playing like he did at times today. He was fun to watch.
• The Carolina Panthers lost on the road to a struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers team, falling to 1-11 in a game I’m sure they’d like to have back.
  • This was a pivotal game for Carolina — most teams rebound when their coach gets fired mid-season, but with this loss the Panthers are officially eliminated from playoff contention. With a trip to the Superdome looming, how does this team keep their head against a string of opponents fighting for playoff spots?

Why do these scores matter? Simple: Arizona’s win & Carolina’s loss all but guarantee the Bears will receive a Top 2 pick in the 2024 Draft Class. Seth Walder confirms that notion below with ESPN Analytics:

Chance to earn No. 1 or No. 2 pick, through late afternoon window. Per ESPN Analytics.

Bears via Panthers 93%
Patriots 60%
Cardinals 22%
Giants 9%
Commanders 8%
Bears 3%
Jets 3%
Titans 1%

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 4, 2023

If you’re a frustrated Bears fan looking for hope in the midst of a frustrating season, a Top 2 pick in this draft class represents just that.

It’s not that the Bears have to move on from Justin Fields, but having the option to do so without feeling the pressure to settle (EX: The Giants & Daniel Jones) is a luxury most NFL teams simply cannot afford. As I discussed in a column last week, a Top 2 pick is an objective good for the Chicago Bears — between sticking with Fields & drafting a rookie, there’s no “wrong” option.

That said, maybe you’ve heard all this talk of drafting a QB and want to know more about who these players are — I’ll be streaming a draft breakdown this evening of both major QBs in an attempt to pull back the curtain on Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Join me at 8PM CST and let’s get to know the good, the bad, and the ugly of these kids’ games.

Your Turn: How do you feel about Chicago’s roster as things currently stand?

Last night I dove deep into the Bears’ tape from Monday’s big win in Detroit — throughout the stream I talked through:

• What did the Bears do so well early to rattle Josh Dobbs? Where is their scheme winning?
• Which defenders are leading their defensive units?
• What, if anything, is still wrong with the Bears’ defense? Can their problems be fixed?
• What fueled the good parts of the Bears’ Sunday offense?
• Who stood out on the Bears’ offensive line? Who was left lacking?
• What made Chicago’s late playcalling so… ugly? How did that affect their scheme?
• Rants & ravings about the future of the Bears
• And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: What are your Thanksgiving plans?

If the Chicago Bears have a Top 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, chances are strong that I’ll advocate for a move at quarterback this offseason. Why? Because I love what both Drake Maye & Caleb Williams have put on tape.

I think they’re the kinds of quarterbacks you wait years to draft, each squarely in the realm of Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. Both are cuts above your standard prospect, but through overuse of the word “generational” many have recently begun to view both Williams and Maye as “Overhyped”, “Not That Good”, and all kinds of other derogatory phrases.

Let’s set the record straight: Drake Maye has one of the gaudiest arms on the planet. Not only can he make any throw on the football field, he does make every throw on a week to week basis. Caleb Williams, on the other hand, processes the game at an outstanding level while consistently showing off a sublime combination pocket movement, arm talent, and awareness that allows him to make plays that other QBs truly can’t dream of making.

If the Bears have the option to take one of these two players, I want them to go for it. I think these players are worth it.

But, and here’s the key point I’m trying to make, wanting Chicago to draft a QB if given the chance doesn’t mean “Robert hates Justin Fields” — Fields is a Top 20 QB & a bona-fide starter, but he’s also a limited passer that takes a ton of hits & needs an offense to cater to him more than his peers do. He’s a dynamic runner, but we’ve seen most running QBs struggle to sustain rushing (while staying healthy) over the course of a 17-game season.

Too many have made this quarterback conversation obnoxiously black and white — it’s devolved into split sides shouting “Well actually Caleb & Drake suck” or “Fields can’t play”… but neither statement is true. The kids are good, and Justin Fields has played well enough in Chicago to become a topic of trade conversations around the league. Regardless of what you prefer the Bears do at quarterback this offseason, neither answer is objectively bad & neither side needs to be treated as such.

I personally think the Bears have the opportunity to build an ideal landing spot for a rookie QB. Exciting WRs, a talented young OL, and a proven safety valve TE should make up a strong supporting cast. Drafting any QB this high is risky, but I think these rookies are worth the risk involved in moving on from Justin — especially since sticking with Justin is no sure thing either.

But despite my personal preference, it’s also possible that the Bears could build such a strong team around Justin that not winning more games would be nearly impossible. I personally think this team would struggle to keep the QB healthy (Fields’ average time to throw went up against a blitz-heavy team in Minnesota) and would eventually face defenses they don’t have answers for on offense, but until the Bears line up, play, and lose those games there’s no sense treating a Fields-led unit as if it’s doomed to fail.

A Fields-led 2024-2025 team has a better shot of winning 9-10 games & making the playoffs each year than drafting a rookie QB does — if that’s the direction Chicago goes, it’ll be the best pair of seasons they’ve had since 2005 & 2006. It’s been that long since Chicago won 9+ games in consecutive years — this result would not be “bad”.

But I also think the opportunity Caleb Williams & Drake Maye present gives Chicago a better shot at becoming a Super Bowl contender than sticking with Fields does. Explaining why each quarterback excites me so much will take full scouting reports, so we’ll save that for the offseason — but the prospects’ talent & the opportunity to reset the rookie contract clock (allowing Chicago to pay for an extra pair of Free Agents) allows Chicago to build a team that can compete with (and beat) the Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers by 2025.

Regardless of which ‘side’ you’re on, I think that’s an exciting thing to talk about.

Your Turn: How do you feel about Chicago’s signal-caller?

Last night’s gritty, ugly 12-10 win over the Vikings may soon become a career-defining game for their Head Coach — Matt Eberflus took the helm in Chicago and immediately articulated a plan to create a tenacious, turnover-hungry defense that would win games behind a balanced ball-control offense, and that’s exactly the plan we saw in action on Monday Night.

Can this plan work forever? We’ll know more in two weeks’ time as they take their second shot at the Lions. For now, sit back and enjoy a rare victory Tuesday — we never get enough of them.

Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?

Last night I dove deep into the Bears’ tape from Sunday’s abysmal loss in Detroit — throughout the stream I talked through:

• What fueled the good parts of the Bears’ Sunday offense?
• Who stood out on the Bears’ offensive line? Who was left lacking?
• What made Chicago’s late playcalling so conservative? How did that affect their scheme?
• Where are the Bears’ coaches making life harder on their players? How can they fix those issues?
• What did the Bears do so well early to create Jared Goff’s turnovers? How can they build on their successes?
• How did the Lions exploit the Bears late?
• Rants & ravings about the future of the Bears
• And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: What are your Thanksgiving plans?

I was late starting my re-watch of the Bears’ game this week, so in the spirit of Thanksgiving I’m thankful for other content creators — JT O’Sullivan has a fabulous breakdown on a large majority of the Bears’ offense posted to his YouTube channel, and I’ll cover the defense later this evening.

If you like in-depth breakdowns, JT is your guy. Give it a look.

Your Turn: Which Bears player impressed you the most last Sunday?

To be honest with you, I still can’t believe the Bears managed to lose that game yesterday.

Statistically speaking, it was a historic loss — it’s the first time any team lost in regulation with a +3 turnover margin and 40+ minutes time of possession (Teams were 48-0 prior to Sunday), it’s a loss that saw ESPN qualify Chicago with an even higher Win Probability than their peak in the Denver game (98.4% today versus 98.1% in Week 4), and because it’s a divisional game you can be sure Lions fans will never allow this game to be forgotten.

But beyond that, beyond the nearly historic levels of embarrassment that Matt Eberflus has left the franchise answering questions about in postgame press conferences, today’s loss was a grim reminder of a truth we’ve all known for some time now:

Matt Eberflus’ football identity simply does not win in the modern NFL.

Eberflus coaches like every coach I grew up watching back in the early 2000s — defensively, he wants a team that’s simultaneously passive in their zone coverages but also aggressive in taking the ball away. Offensively, he wants a ball-control ground attack that eats up clock, churns out 1st downs, and protects the football at all costs. Today, he couldn’tve asked for more from his team:

• Four turnovers on defense (finishing +3 on the day)
• Clean game from his offense (one turnover, more 1st downs than Detroit)
• 250+ combined yards from his QB
• & and outstanding clock-killing drive late that left Detroit with less than 4:15 on the clock to pull off a miracle.

But, despite nearly everything playing out exactly according to Eberflus’ plan, Flus’ conservative nature continued to leave the door open for Detroit to creep back into the game because of the decisions Flus made in the highest leverage situations.

When Chicago scored in the late 3rd quarter to go up 19-14, Chicago very obviously should’ve attempted a 2-point conversion and tried to go up a full 7 points. A 5-point lead is as good as a 6-point lead, but a 7-point lead protects you against a potential opposing score — instead, Chicago kicked the extra point. Surely that won’t come into play later.

Then, as Chicago failed to convert a 3rd & 1 on their ensuing drive, the difference between a 6-point lead and a 7-point lead began to affect Eberflus’ decision-making — despite the Bears’ excellent record since Week 2 in 4th & 1/inches situations, Eberflus needed protection against an opposing touchdown. A 9-point lead is a 2-score game, whereas a failed conversion (no matter how unlikely) would’ve left the Bears vulnerable. Eberflus kicked, thus setting up what ultimately became Flus’ defining moment in this football game.

The Bears offense grinds their way down to the Detroit 23 to set up a 3rd & 7. The score is 23-14 and Chicago has killed almost 7 minutes of clock — a first down almost assuredly wins this game, as a conversion and the ensuing 3 plays would cost Detroit too much time (brings the clock near 2 minutes or begins burning timeouts). But what did Matt Eberflus do?

They ran the ball between the tackles into a 7-man box. They had 6 blockers. The free man picked up RB Roschon Johnson immediately and the play was stopped for a 2-yard gain. They played for the Field Goal, and they got what they wanted.

Holding only a 9-point lead, Matt Eberflus coached his team afraid of a Detroit reversal. Kicking the field goal ensured that Detroit needed 2 touchdowns to win. But had Chicago shown any aggression earlier in going for the 2-point conversion up 5, they could’ve entered that 3rd down with a 10-point lead and might have coached 3rd & 7 unafraid of Detroit scoring a touchdown & field goal in quick succession. They could’ve played to win the game.

But instead, they played not to lose it. They followed a decision-making pattern that’s become antiquated and they got punished for doing so. Once the Lions scored to bring the game within 5, nothing could’ve been more predictable than Chicago’s back-to-back runs up the gut that landed the Bears in an impossible 3rd & 10 with too much time left on the clock. Unsurprisingly, Chicago failed to convert, surrendered the lead, and lost a game that even Eberflus’ harshest critics thought he had in the bag.

This is Matt Eberflus’ legacy — he’s a true throwback to 2006, a conservative defensive mind that emphasizes playing hard within archaic defensive schemes & ground-and-pound offense, but his total lack of aggression speaks to his failure to innovate on both sides of the ball. In a league of innovators, he will always be (at least) one step behind.

He’s not the guy. He simply cannot stay past 2023. Thankfully, with now two games like this on Eberflus’ 3-8 record, George McCaskey would be hard-pressed to keep him.