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Previewing Chicago’s Final Exam…

| January 4th, 2024


Why would the year end any other way?

At this point, all that’s left is to see how the chips fall.

Nick & I take you through the matchups, the stakes, the ins, and the outs of what promises to be a massive Bears season finale in Lambeau on the latest episode of Bear With Us — check it out below.

Your Turn: How are you feeling about this weekend’s game?

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Bears Should Move on from Matt Eberflus

| January 3rd, 2024


Chicago’s season will come to a close in Green Bay on Sunday, when the Bears will finish without a winning record for the 5th season in a row and 10th time in the last 11 years. Since the Bears are already out of the playoff race, the game itself is fairly inconsequential for them, but the offseason that follows it will be hugely important, as Chicago will have to decide whether to stay the course or make a change at both head coach and quarterback.

I already examined Chicago’s decision about Fields yesterday, so today I want to take a look at head coach Matt Eberflus. The decision on Eberflus will actually come first, as the Bears will likely officially announce whether he is fired or returning for 2024 in the 1st half of next week.

In-season turnaround

Through the 1st four weeks of the season, the Bears were 0-4, had been outscored by 62 points, and looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Since then, they are 7-5, have outscored their opponents by 57 points, and look like a dangerous team. It’s a real credit to Eberflus that he kept the team focused and resilient so they could bounce back from their disastrous start to the season.

However, there are 2 points to consider here:

  1. If Eberflus deserves praise for the Bears’ good stretch starting in week 5, then he also deserves significant blame for their 0-4 start. Why did it take a month for his team to look like they belonged in the NFL?
  2. It’s also worth noting that Chicago has faced a remarkably easy schedule this year.
    • Their opponents cumulatively have a win % of 0.461, which is the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL.
    • When the Bears have played decent teams, they have really struggled, posting a 1-7 record against teams who are currently .500 or better.
    • To be fair, 4 of those games were the 0-4 stretch to start the season (though 3 of those 4 teams are exactly .500 right now, so not exactly stellar), but the Bears are still 1-3 against .500 or better teams since then, compared to 6-2 against sub-.500 teams in the same stretch.

Defensive Improvement

The other main point in Eberflus’ favor is that Chicago’s defense has gotten really good since he took over calling plays. It took a few weeks for him to find his footing, as Eberflus took control of the defense in week 2 but the turnaround didn’t start until week 5. From weeks 1-4, Chicago’s defense gave up 29 points/game (which would be 31st in the NFL over the full season) and ranked 31st in expected points added (EPA) and 26th in success rate. Since week 5, Chicago’s defense has given up 17.4 points/game (which would be 3rd in the NFL over the full season) and ranked 3rd in EPA and 6th in success rate.

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Bears Should Move on from Justin Fields

| January 2nd, 2024


The Bears still play one more game this season, but not much is riding on it. They’ve already been eliminated from the playoffs and locked in the #1 pick in the draft thanks to their offseason trade with the Carolina Panthers. Beating Green Bay to keep them out of the playoffs on Sunday would be fun, but it doesn’t ultimately matter for the Bears’ future.

Accordingly, it’s time to shift attention to the monumental offseason that Chicago faces. The Bears are in a great position right now. They showed in 2023 that they are ready to compete, yet they also hold two 2024 1st round draft picks – including the aforementioned 1st overall pick – and have significant salary cap space (currently slotted for $62M, 8th most in the NFL, but both of those numbers will change significantly as teams make cuts and sign players to extensions).

Chicago has all the ingredients of a team poised to become a significant factor in the NFC over the next few seasons, provided they utilize their resources at hand well. That work will begin this offseason with two franchise-altering decisions: what to do at quarterback and head coach. I want to examine both of those decisions this week, starting with QB Justin Fields today and moving to head coach Matt Eberflus tomorrow.

Justin Fields Has Clearly Improved

Let’s start by noting that Fields has made clear improvements as a passer each season, as you can see in the table below.

A quick glance at these stats shows that Fields has developed into roughly a league average passer this year, though he still takes sacks at a higher than average rate. When you factor in his rushing ability, that has real value. Fields has shown that he is clearly a starting QB in the NFL.

QB Comparison

With that in mind, let’s compare Fields directly to his peers. While the table above looked at all passes thrown in the NFL this year, the table below shows how Fields compares only to the 31 QBs who have thrown the ball at least 230 times. His ranks compared to these peers are shown in parentheses, and any ranks in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while any in the bottom 25% are highlighted in red. A few notes:

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My New Year’s Resolution? Beat The Atlanta Falcons

| December 28th, 2023


Matt Eberflus continues his final stand this Sunday as he takes on an Atlanta Falcons team that finds itself in a similar position to your Chicago Bears — neither team controls their playoff destiny despite playing in lackluster divisions, both offenses added weapons in the offseason and have subsequently underperformed, but the play of each team’s defense has kept each team alive despite the turmoil on the other side of the ball.

Neither team can make the playoffs with a win this weekend… but both teams will likely be eliminated from contention with a loss. Thus, for both Matt Eberflus & Arthur Smith, this New Years’ Day matchup is do-or-die. That sets the stage for a riveting football game.

Nick and I dove deep into this matchup (and the current state of the Bears) within the latest episode of Bear With Us, including discussion topics like…

  • What went well against the Cardinals on offense? How did they score so easily early? What did Arizona do to curb the offense in the 2nd half?
  • Who played well on defense last week? Who played poorly?
  • Where do the Bears match up well with Atlanta on defense? What weak links in the Falcons’ offense can they exploit?
  • How does Chicago’s offense match up with Atlanta’s defense? What kind of day will this be for Chicago?
  • Holiday chatter & game score predictions
  • And much, much more…

It’s one of our best episodes yet — check it out and let me know what you think!

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Previewing a Christmas Eve Dance with the Desert Birds

| December 21st, 2023


The playoff push may have ended before it started, but with 3 games remaining on Chicago’s schedule backs are truly against the wall now — Matt Eberflus now has three late-game collapses in a 2023 season where, had Chicago taken care of business with all three fourth-quarter leads, he’d have firm control of the NFC’s 6th seed & might be a weekend away from clinching a playoff spot.

It’s hard to imagine the powers that be at Halas Hall aren’t every bit as disappointed as we fans are, leaving three critical weeks for Eberflus to make his final statement — if his team finishes the year with three strong wins, they might just save their coach’s job.

Eberflus’ final stand begins this Sunday as he takes on a hapless Arizona Cardinals team that should be easy prey… but this is the NFL. Nothing’s ever easy, is it?

Nick and I dove deep into this matchup and the state of the Bears within the latest episode of Bear With Us, including discussion topics like…

  • What was Luke Getsy doing throughout that game in Cleveland? What could he have done better?
  • Who played well on defense last week? What went wrong at the end?
  • Where do the Bears match up well with Arizona on defense? What weak links in the Cardinals’ offense can they exploit?
  • How does Chicago’s offense match up with Arizona’s ragtag defense? Should this be a big day for Chicago?
  • A review of Matt Eberflus’ defense against the Lions, including the driving forces behind Chicago’s success.
  • Holiday chatter & fan Q&A
  • And much, much more…

It’s one of our best episodes yet — check it out and let me know what you think!

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Checking the Tape: Bears @ Browns

| December 19th, 2023

Happy All-22uesday, folks!

Tonight at 8PM CST I’ll be going through the Bears’ game as usual — come join for an evening of breakdowns & analysis of:

  • Where the Bears won on defense
  • Where the Bears lost on defense
  • Who’s to blame within Chicago’s offense?
  • And much, much more

See you there!

Editor’s Note: With Christmas approaching, this week may be a bit content light. Be sure to enjoy time with family and those around you this week!

Your Turn: How have your feelings changed about Sunday’s game over the last day?

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225 Comments

Three Strikes, You’re Out

| December 18th, 2023


For the 3rd time this season, the Chicago Bears held a 10+ point lead in the 4th quarter. For the 3rd time this season, they surrendered their lead and ultimately lost in regulation, with a final offensive rally falling flat.

Just like the Denver & Detroit games that predated their trip to Cleveland, ESPN’s analytics gave Chicago a 90+% of winning this game just as the 3rd quarter ended. But, just like those games, the Bears found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

These three games plainly hammer home the most frustrating part of the Bears’ 2023 season — the 5-9 Bears, currently the 5th-worst team in the NFL via draft order, are not a talentless bunch. They don’t lack playmakers, they don’t struggle to compete with the team across from them. If football games ended after the 3rd quarter, Chicago would be 8-6-1.

But, of course, that’s not how football works. NFL games are won & lost in the 4th quarter, and it tells you everything you need to know that the 2023 Chicago Bears have yet to win a game that weren’t already winning when they entered the 4th quarter. Combine that with yesterday’s NFL season record-tying third blown 10+ point lead in the 4th quarter, and you start to see a worrying trend — this roster has the talent to earn leads in this league, but it’s coaching staff can’t seem to close.

It’s never as simple as ‘just blaming the coaches’ — Robert Tonyan & Darnell Mooney dropped game-changing passes, TJ Edwards and Jaylon Johnson had opportunities to end the Browns’ early touchdown drive early via interceptions that got dropped, and Trent Taylor muffed two punts, with only one of those muffs coming back to bite him. The players need to execute, and everyone (including the quarterback) needs to own these rough results.

But fool me once against the Broncos, shame on you. Fool me twice in Detroit, shame on me. Fool me a third time in Cleveland, and I think it’s simple — with three strikes against him, Matt Ebeflus is likely out.

What that would mean for Justin Fields remains to be seen, but with Carolina’s pick looming large and Fields entering the 4th year of his rookie contract, I’d imagine the odds of him staying in Chicago under a new head coach are slim. If he wants to stay, he’ll have to prove it over these next 3 games.


The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly


The Good:

  • Chicago’s defense played unbelievably well and I’m heartbroken for them over the result. Montez Sweat has unlocked a turnover-hungry unit that’s getting contributions from everyone — Justin Jones got early pressure that led to an Eddie Jackson interception returned to the 1-yard-line, TJ Edwards dislodged a football that Tremaine Edmunds took back to the house, and even CB Tyrique Stevenson came up huge to steal points away from Cleveland after Trent Taylor’s second muff of the day. The defense made mistakes late, but ultimately scored (or directly led to scoring) nearly as many points as their opponent scored against them — it’s a shame Chicago’s offense couldn’t win this game for them. They’ve been outstanding.
  • Braxton Jones might be the real deal. Myles Garrett is too good to not affect the game across from him, but Chicago’s 5th round LT kept Garrett from logging even one QB Hit on the day. All-22 will paint a better picture of how well Braxton battled Garrett, but given that Justin Fields logged a 3.48 second time-to-throw on the day I have a feeling the tape will be kind to the Bears’ offensive line.
    • Update: This bullet is looking like a phantom memory, Braxton effectively gave up pressure all day. Not sure what I thought I saw, but I’ll know more on review later.

The Bad

  • You won’t win many games if you can’t score. Chicago finished the day with 3.4 yards per play, less than 250 yards of total offense, nine three-and-outs, and only two drives of 40 yards or more on the day. The run game struggled mightily and the passing game isn’t self-sustaining, so when the Bears weren’t ripping off chunk plays downfield they spent the day not doing much at all.
    • Luke Getsy has to own the Bears’ offensive disfunction, but Justin Fields shouldn’t be exempt from criticism — Fields may not have been the problem in Cleveland, but he wasn’t the solution either. That said, the All-22 will give us a much better picture of what happened on offense yesterday — did Fields pass on open looks downfield? Or did the Browns simply blanket the Bears’ WRs on a day where DJ Moore was clearly hobbled? We’ll find out tomorrow.

The Ugly

  • The future seems far too uncertain. It’s easy for me, a writer, to write pretty words about the failings of Chicago’s head coach, but do George McCaskey, Kevin Warren, and Ryan Poles see things that way? Surely they can’t be satisficed with an overperforming roster and an underperforming record, but with Eberflus finding major wins over divisional opponents recently I can’t help wondering if a spoonful of victory over the hapless Cardinals and Falcons would set the table for Matt’s retention following a big win in Green Bay.
    • In my opinion, if the Bears are going to consider drafting a new QB I’d rather they did so with a new HC in town. I’d love to see the organization do everything they can to support a rookie QB, including hiring the best offensive coaches available to surround their chosen signal-caller with competency & give him the best opportunity possible to succeed where no one else has. But do Eberflus’ defensive accolades help the Bears’ brass look past these consistent late-game failures? Only time will tell.

Postgame Podcast:

Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through the ups, the downs, the ins, and the outs of Chicago’s latest loss here:

Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?

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Previewing a Regime-Defining Trip to Cleveland

| December 14th, 2023


Four weeks ago, I wrote the following about the Bears’ trip to Detroit: “This game in Motown may be one of Matthew Eberflus’ last chances to show Chicago’s powers-that-be that the Bears are in good hands.” Since then, he’s shown exactly that.

This defense is playing with their eyes on fire, both by blitzing the QB fearlessly and dutifully executing assignments in coverage. It’s a beautiful thing to watch.

This Chicago offense sputters at times, but between each sputter Justin Fields, DJ Moore, and Cole Kmet are producing explosive plays that move the ball down the field in the chunks they need to set up points for their defense.

Add the two units together, and you’ve got yourself a winning recipe. Because of that, against all odds, these Chicago Bears are in the playoff hunt.

But with a 5-8 record at this point in the year, the Bears need to win every game from here on out if they want to have any hopes at a playoff run — luckily, this weekend they face a Cleveland Browns team that’s been ravaged by injuries. As you’ll see below, they’re a team in rough shape.

Matt Eberflus has a chance to send Chicago into a frenzy by beating a weakened team on the road and kickstarting a playoff push — everything is on the line for Eberflus from here on out, and I expect him to coach like it. That should make for some exciting Bears football, and I can’t wait to see what happens next.

Nick and I dive into this topic and plenty more within the latest episode of Bear With Us, including…

  • Where do the Bears match up well with Cleveland on defense? What weak links in the Browns’ offense can they exploit?
  • How does Chicago’s offense match up with what’s left of Cleveland’s defense? How well does the Bears’ offense really need to perform?
  • A review of Matt Eberflus’ defense against the Lions, including the driving forces behind Chicago’s success.
  • A look at what Justin Fields was (and wasn’t) during last Sunday’s game
  • An outline of Chicago’s playoff scenarios, including the teams you’ll need to root for outside of Cleveland this weekend.
  • And much, much more…

It’s one of our best episodes yet — check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: How do you feel about this weekend?

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Offense is a Roller Coaster and We’re Just Along For the Ride

| December 13th, 2023

Last night I dove deep into the Bears’ tape from Monday’s big win over Detroit — throughout the stream I talked through:

  • What are the Bears doing to create so much defensive chaos?
    • How much of their success is the players? How much is the coaching? Can it be both?
  • How are the Bears’ attacking 3rd downs defensively? What has their shift in attitude done to their 3rd down production?
  • Which young defenders have stepped up their game?
  • Who (or what) fueled the good parts of the Bears’ Sunday offense?
  • Where did Justin Fields win? Where did he struggle?
  • Who stood out on the Bears’ offensive line? Who was left lacking?
  • How much of what’s working for Chicago (both sides of the ball) is sustainable going forward?
  • The usual rants & ravings about the future of the Bears
  • And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: Have you jumped on the Bears’ playoff bandwagon?

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Checking the Tape: Eberflus’ Defense Closes vs. Detroit

| December 12th, 2023

This Defense Is Starting To Feel It

Matt Eberflus’ transformation into Cover 3 Mike Zimmer has been an awesome thing to watch, and Sunday’s Detroit game had plenty of examples of Eberflus’ handiwork.

On this early 3rd & 10, Chicago sends a 6-man blitz paired with man coverage on the back end. Kyler Gordon recognizes Detroit’s pre-snap short motion, passes his assignment to Jaylon Johnson, and from there the back-7 executes flawlessly. When this defense is executing together, it’s a beautiful thing to watch.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1734334221009797410

Flus Has Gone Wild With Pressure Looks

Gone are the days of Matt Eberflus calling static drop-7 coverages on 3rd or 4th & longs — if Flus isn’t afraid of your Quarterback, he’ll send pressure (and plenty of it) on any down.

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