So, what is going to happen on Sunday?

• This strikes me as the kind of Caleb game with a gaudy stat line. 29-36, 325 yards, 2-3 touchdowns. The Bears know they have to come out of the box flinging it, and they will.
• The Bears will focus on containing Kyler Murray in the run game and limit him to under 20 yards (and one first down) on the ground.
• Trey McBride, Cardinals TE, is coming off his best game of the season and I think that will continue Sunday. I think the Cardinals will target McBride the way Jacksonville did Evan Engram early; consistent underneath stuff to keep the pressure off Murray.
• After watching how effective De’Von Achane was in the passing game against Arizona last week, I can’t see a scenario where D’Andre Swift is not targeted multiple times in the passing game. I’ll have some serious question for the coaching staff if he’s not.
• Caleb has been sacked 22 times. Kyler has been sacked 11 times. If you’re looking for the most glaring statistical discrepancy between these two clubs, there it is. If the Bears can keep Caleb upright, they’ll win this game, pulling away in the fourth quarter.

Chicago Bears 30, Arizona Cardinals 20

The Bears are 4-3, and in last place in the NFC North.

The Arizona Cardinals are 4-4, and in first place in the NFC West.

The NFC is the wild, wild west, so it makes poetic sense that a contest to define the Bears’ season will take place just about 195 miles from the O.K. Corral.

The Hail Maryland is over. It’s in the past. So is the dismal effort the Bears delivered for three quarters of their loss in Landover, a stadium that provides perhaps the worst sports viewing atmosphere outside of the swamp in New Jersey. (I have chosen not to write about my time in Northwest Stadium. Nobody wants to read that.) When I analyzed this three-game stretch coming out of the bye, it seemed imperative for the Bears to go 2-1, splitting their road games and beating the Patriots at home. That is still on the table. If the Bears can finish this stretch at 6-3, tournament relevance in January is still very much on the table. If they are 5-4, those questions become more difficult to answer.

Thus, it is not difficult to position Sunday’s game in Arizona as the most important the Bears have played thus far in 2024. How they start, especially after Washington, will be scrutinized. The offensive and defensive game-planning going in, especially after Washington, will be scrutinized. How Matt Eberflus manages the game, especially after Washington, will be scrutinized. Every major contributor, especially those with big contracts like DJ Moore and Montez Sweat, will be scrutinized. Tyrique Stevenson will be…very scrutinized.

And that’s what makes Sunday fun. The leaves are changing. The air is chilling. The calendar will have flipped from October to November. New York City will be celebrating the NYC Marathon, its best day of the year. All the talk of meaningless preseason games and hitless camp practices ends. The Bears have a football game they must win if they have designs on more than just scoreboard watching a seven seed after Christmas. Everything will be magnified.

Can the 2024 version of this club hold up under that scrutiny?

Before the season, I broke up the Bears schedule into three distinct segments:

• Segment One: Weeks 1-6, leading into the bye.
• Segment Two: Weeks 8-10
• Segment Three: Weeks 11-18, wherein six of their final eight games are against division opponents.

Segment one was a success. Could the Bears have beaten both the Texans and the Colts? Absolutely. But they also could have lost to the Titans and Rams. 4-2 is a fair representation of the performance we’ve seen from this team over the first six weeks of the season, and 4-2 gives the Bears an opportunity to be playing knockout football in January.

The next evaluative moment in this season will come at the end of Sunday, November 10th. (For those of you not on Twitter, I’ll be presenting one of my favorite films, Sweet Smell of Success, at the Jacob Burns Film Center in Pleasantville, NY that morning.) After these next three games, the Bears will have played (essentially) half their schedule, nine games, and will be able to establish clear win/loss goals for the second and far more difficult half of their schedule.

So, how do these matchups look?

Sunday 10/27 – @ Washington Commanders

General feeling: Toss-up.

The Commanders have been one of the real surprises of the 2024 season, mostly due to their rookie quarterback’s inspiring play. (The Bears fans on Twitter that seem to resent the success of Jayden Daniels need to grow up.) But Washington still doesn’t play much defense and, with two weeks to prepare, the Bears should be expected to (at worst) make this a shootout.

[Side note: I will be in attendance for this game, which essentially guarantees something abnormal will take place.]

Sunday 11/3 (NYC Marathon Sunday!) – @ Arizona Cardinals

General feeling: Lean Bears.

Arizona is a feisty team, but they are awful defensively, and that building in the desert will be at least half transplants from Chicago.

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I doubt most will understand why this is the image for today’s thread.

But those who do will enjoy it.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Welcome to Garbage Time

Last week I cared very much about the outcome of the Chicago Bears game.

This week I don’t.

This team, the 2023 edition of the Chicago Bears, has no business being outside the playoffs. If they don’t blow three double-digit, fourth-quarter leads, they would be 8-6 and sizing up a winnable first-round matchup in Detroit come January. But because they don’t have it at quarterback, and they don’t have it at head coach, they are 5-9 and playing out the string.

This is not my casting a verdict on either Fields or Flus. I don’t care anymore, honestly. When it comes to Fields, it is the most boring discourse I’ve encountered since starting this project in 2005. Never has so much debate centered around a mediocre player. Chips down, I would likely move on from both men immediately after the season. But a strong finish, winning out, would give the Bears an 8-9 campaign, and that is exactly what I expected from this season. So, if this group reaches my preseason expectations, what rationale do I have for advocating their removal?

But that’s all these stretch games are, a chance for Fields and Flus to make something of a closing summation. They’ve called their witnesses, presented their evidence, and done their cross examinations. The trial is effectively over. Home Cardinals, home Falcons, at Packers are an opportunity for the coach and quarterback to restate their case to the jury – Ryan Poles, Kevin Warren, George McCaskey – one final time. And that is operating under the assumption that this particular jury has not already reached their decision. (Which, let’s be honest, would be hard to believe.)

This is garbage time. Draw conclusions from the results at your own peril.

Top Ten Christmas Songs (Updated 2023)

10. The Christmas Song, Nat King Cole’s iconic rendition

9. Back Door Santa, Clarence Carter

8. It Feels Like Christmas from Muppet Christmas Carol, Paul Williams

7. Donde Esta Santa Claus, Augie Rios

6. Peace on Earth/The Little Drummer Boy, David Bowie and Bing Crosby

5. Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas, Mel Torme’s rendition on the Home Alone soundtrack

4. December the Twenty Fifth from Scrooge, Leslie Bricusse (Correct!)

3. Hard Candy Christmas, Dolly Parton

2. Christmas Card from a Hooker in Minneapolis, Tom Waits

1. Fairytale of New York, The Pogues (RIP Shane)

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DBB is currently on a short 40th birthday vacation in Atlantic City, NJ. If news breaks on the GM/coach front, we will break that sabbatical and have commentary right here.

All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Saturday

• Money Line Parlay: Bengals over Raiders, Bills over Patriots (+112).
  • I’m a believer in Bisaccia magic, and I think the Raiders pass rush will give Joe Burrow trouble, but the Bengals just have too much firepower to lose at home in the first round. I wouldn’t feel confident laying the six points, so I’m hanging onto the money line.
  • The most overrated victory of the season was New England’s Monday night victory in Buffalo. It wasn’t a real game. It was a football chess match played in a typhoon and Belichick might be the sport’s only master. The Bills are the better team, with the better quarterback. That’s where my money goes in the postseason.

Sunday

• Money Line Parlay: Bucs over Eagles, Cowboys over Niners (+113).
  • Philly is 0-7 against playoff teams this season and the way you exploit this Bucs defense is with an accurate quarterback. (The Eagles don’t have that.) Tom Brady isn’t losing to Jalen Hurts.
  • Cowboys vs. Niners profiles as the game of the week but I don’t think San Francisco’s secondary can hang with these Dallas weapons. How the hell are the Niners covering a receiving corps that goes 4-5 deep with talent? (They’re not.)
• Same Game Parlay: Chiefs -12.5 over Steelers / Under 46.5 points (+264).
  • I think the Steelers score ten points in this game, which means the Chiefs need to score only 23 to cover the number. It also means they need to score 37 to hit the over, and in frigid conditions that seems unlikely. 30-10 hits both bets safely and that’s my final score prediction.

Monday

For me, Cardinals at Rams is a gambling stay away. I don’t particularly trust either team. But the guide needs to have some action.

• Spread: Rams -4 over Cardinals.
  • Since beating the Bears on December 5th, the Cardinals are 1-4, only eking out a victory over the Cowboys. This is a team, and a head coach, that peak on Halloween every season. And last week, in a game they needed, they let Rashaad Penny run for 8.3 yards per carry. You need to be tough to win on the road in the playoffs. That’s not this team.
  • Why is it a stay away, then? Because Matthew Stafford has been sneaky terrible for over a month. Would anyone be surprised if he threw three picks and threw the Rams season away?