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Bears Beat Bills 33-6 In Dawn Of New Era (Hopefully)

| August 12th, 2024

Caleb Williams led his Bears to a blowout in Buffalo — below are a few notes from what I saw from Chicago’s starters.

If you’d like a full recap of the weekend’s contest, check out the latest episode of Bear With Us below. 

Caleb’s First NFL Completion Proves His Poise

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1822762254988931140

Andrew Billings Is A Force In The Run Game

Gervon Dexter Flashed Promise

I Can’t Imagine The World’s Reaction Had Caleb Completed This Pass

Your Turn: What did you see in the Bears-Bills game?

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Friday Note: Don’t Get Too Hung Up On Practice Reports

| August 9th, 2024

A word to the wise: try not to get too wrapped up in the “results” of individual Training Camp practices. Learning is a process, and not a linear one.

Caleb Williams is a rookie QB, practice “results” will vary — especially since they’re running him & the rest of the #1 offense against the defensive starters, as opposed to the second-string. That’s always going to push a young QB, especially when his defense is reportedly doing nothing to make life easy for him, blitzing him often and challenging his understanding of coverages early.

It’s fun to talk about practice highlights, but Caleb’s growth was always going to be a process — and not a process that will finish by September 8th. I can personally attest to having agonized over each individual Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields Training Camp pass attempt, and as much as I’d love to tell you that those Camp performances signaled anything about their upcoming seasons… they didn’t.

I could wax on about how Caleb’s bar for this season is set by lowly Bears records like “11 total passing TDs” and “2300 passing yards in a season”, but ultimately football is a results-based business. During Training Camp we bog ourselves down in the minutia of each individual rep, each individual handoff, each individual 1-on-1, and each individual 2-Minute-Drill, but the first number that truly matters in the early season is the number the Bears put on the Soldier Field scoreboard as of ~3PM CST on September 8th.

I love to dig deep into the nitty-gritty of football, I love to obsess over the details of every snap, and while I’d love to tell you that preseason results tell us anything about a young QB’s development… they don’t. CJ Stroud’s first two preseason starts saw him complete 9 of 16 passes for 72 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT — he didn’t throw a regular-season INT until Week 6.

All of this to say, enjoy the growth process and don’t let it get to you. Football is fun, after all! And above all else, Bear Down.

Your Turn: What are you looking for in Caleb’s first Preseason start?

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Establishing (Realistic) Expectations for Caleb Williams

| July 8th, 2024

The Bears have three rookies with a chance to play meaningful roles on offense or defense this year, so I want to take some time this week to look at what history can tell us about what to expect for those players, both in their rookie seasons and in their careers. We’ll start today with QB Caleb Williams, shift tomorrow to WR Rome Odunze, and end with a look at DE Austin Booker.

The Setup

To get a baseline for Caleb Williams, I looked at the last 10 QBs drafted 1st overall, going back to Sam Bradford in 2010. I only wanted to look at QBs drafted 1st overall because they are significantly different than other highly drafted QBs in a few notable ways:

  • They start immediately. 9 of the 10 #1 picks in this sample started at least 10 games as rookie, with an average of 14.3 starts. 5 of the 19 QBs drafted 2-10 in the same years started fewer than 10 games, with an average of only 10.8 starts for the sample.
  • They have better career outcomes. 7 of the 10 #1 picks in this sample earned significant 2nd contracts to be starting QBs, with the verdict still out on 2023 pick Bryce Young. Only 8 of 19 drafted 2-10 hit the same threshold (I am assuming CJ Stroud will as one of those 8), with the verdict still out on Anthony Richardson.

QBs are by far the most valuable players in the NFL, and so any QB who is widely regarded as a top-level prospect is going to get drafted #1 overall. Accordingly, I want to compare Williams directly to his peers, not to others who might get drafted highly out of desperation.

Rookie performance

With that setup in mind, let’s take a look at how these 10 QBs fared as rookies. Full data can be seen here, but the average stat line for these players was 504 pass attempts, 60% completion, 6.7 yards/attempt, 17 TD, 13 INT, and an 80.2 passer rating.

Read More …

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All Gas No Brakes — Sharing The Most Recklessly Positive 2024 Chicago Bears Theories Possible

| June 13th, 2024

Traditionally, the Bear With Us podcast is a grounded, analysis-focused take on the Chicago Bears.

That’s great for the middle of the season, but right now it’s June. Theoretically we could always talk more about OTAs, or maybe talk about the Haason Reddick and Aaron Rodgers drama, but now that we’re into the dead of the offseason I had a better idea — for one week, Nick and I allowed ourselves to be as recklessly positive as we felt like. The episode that resulted is an absolute firecracker.

Tune into this week’s episode for:

  • My theory on how the Bears may be coincidentally positioned to catch the NFL in a 2-3 year downswing
  • Nick’s theory on Caleb Williams’ potential 2024 season results
  • A short discussion on whether Rome Odunze will end his career holding Chicago’s career WR yardage record… as well as whether he’ll be the first current Bear to claim it
  • And much, much more…

Your Turn: How are you feeling about the 2024 Chicago Bears?

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Another Quiet Monday Within A Quiet Summer Offseason

| June 3rd, 2024

Twitter embeds aren’t working on the site today, and I have no idea why. We’ll just have to make do.

Over the weekend, Caleb Williams walked into a Chicago bar and led a ‘Green Bay Sucks’ chant. Coming off of glowing OTA reports last weekend, it seems the young QB is quickly embracing what it means to paly for the Bears.

Is it a bit corny? Sure, especially given the team’s recent record against the Packers. But is it fun? Absolutely.

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