87 Comments

The Most Complete, Data-Driven Breakdown of the 2018 Bears Pass Defense Available

| July 8th, 2019

The Bears had the best pass defense in the NFL last season, finishing 7th in yards, 1st in yards/attempt, 1st in interceptions, and 1st in passer rating against. Now I want to look at the performance of each individual player in coverage, using stats from The Quant Edge.

Where They Lined Up

Let’s start by taking a look at where the CBs lined up. I’m only looking at the CBs here because all of the LB are listed as “LB” and all of the safeties “FS” for pretty much the whole time, thus those designations aren’t particularly helpful.



 

Pretty much the only point I wanted to make here is that the Bears played their CBs in specific spots, not against specific match-ups. Kyle Fuller covered the left (right side from offense’s perspective), Prince Amukamara the right, and Bryce Callahan the slot. Toliver filled in for Prince when he was out hurt (and some for Fuller late in blowouts), and McManis for Callahan.

Of course, Callahan is now gone, so it’s worth noting that 89% of Buster Skrine’s snaps came in the slot in 2018. It’s reasonable to think that will be his role in Chicago as well, but he has played outside a good bit in the past, so maybe he moves if Fuller or Amukamara get hurt and the Bears like McManis or Duke Shelley at nickelback.

It’s also fair to wonder if new defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano will ask his cornerbacks to move around a little bit more. When he was the head coach in Indianapolis in 2017, no cornerback played more than about 90% of their snaps in one spot. That’s still mostly intact, but not the 98%/99% Fuller and Amukamara had.

Coverage Statistics

Now let’s look at how well each player did in coverage. The table below shows that data for every CB, S, and ILB who played a meaningful role in 2018 (OLB are excluded because they saw very few targets due to rushing the passer more than dropping into coverage. Yes, even Leonard Floyd). Positions are color coded to make tracking the table easier.


Read More …

Tagged: , , , , , ,

115 Comments

Understanding the Role of Newly-Acquired Free Agents in 2019: Defense

| March 21st, 2019

The Bears have made a number of moves in free agency, and I want to use some advanced statistics to weigh in on their likely role on the roster and value to the team. We looked at the offense yesterday, and now will move to the defense, where the Bears will be replacing two starters.

Buster Skrine

Nickelback Bryce Callahan followed Vic Fangio to the Broncos, and the Bears replaced him with Buster Skrine, who was a bit cheaper ($5.5 million/year vs. $7 million/year) and has been a bit healthier (5 games missed vs. 12 games missed in last 3 years). According to The Quant Edge, both players have spent the majority of their time over the last three years at nickel, though Skrine has spent a bit more (roughly 30%, compared to 15%) playing outside.

The table below uses data from The Quant Edge to show how effective each player has been in coverage. In order to increase sample sizes, I looked at Skrine and Callahan cumulatively from 2016-18 (I’ll note this actually helped Callahan and hurt Skrine, lest I be accused of trying to skew the numbers in the Bears’ favor), and for context compared them to averaged 2018 stats from five other nickelbacks who are widely viewed as being quality players: Chris Harris, Aaron Colvin, Tavon Young, Nickell Robey-Coleman, and Justin Coleman.

Based on this data, it is pretty clear to see that Skrine is a downgrade from Callahan, but that is not to say he’s a bad player. Skrine gets targeted more frequently than other nickel CBs, but holds up to the targeting quite well. The only thing that really jumps out poorly there is the TD:INT ratio. Like Callahan, Skrine doesn’t really get many interceptions, and he has given up more scores than you would like to see.

Read More …

Tagged: , , ,

241 Comments

A Few Quick Thoughts on the New Bears: Cordarrelle, Buster & Mike

| March 14th, 2019


Cordarrelle Patterson, WR/RB/KR

  • The Bears needed someone to be their kick returner. Yes, the position has been devalued in recent years but no team was worse returning the kickoff in 2018 than the Bears. They were THIRTEEN yards worse than the league’s best kickoff return average. That’s astronomical.
  • Patterson is a toy on offense. He’ll run some jet sweeps. He’s run some deep stuff. He can even spell the tailbacks. He’s the kind of player that presents match-up problems for the opposing defensive coordinator.
  • This is a player you add when you think you’re close to winning a title. This is a “final piece” type move. This is a move designed to get a big third down in a division game in December.

Buster Skrine, CB

  • From Adam Jahns on Twitter: “Matt Nagy in October on nickel back Buster Skrine, who is now expected to be signed: “He’s one of the better nickels in this league, if not the best. I mean, he’s good. He’s a good nickel in there.”
  • Skrine commits penalties because – like Prince Amukamara – he plays with his hands. But having watched a ton of Jets football (every one of their games) many of Skrine’s penalties are committed when he’s asked to cover for too long. The Jets had no pass rush for two years. It happened a lot. It won’t in Chicago.
  • His greatest value in a Chuck Pagano defense might be his ability to get to the quarterback from the slot.

Mike Davis, RB

  • He’s not Taquan Mizzell

Tagged: , ,