TRENDING: #Bears guard (#64) Nate Davis is COMPLETELY LOST ON THE FOOTBALL
FIELD

(via @CNOtheCEO)
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— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) September 16, 2024

The Bears’ offense is a work-in-progress, and I’ve been trying to encourage folks to not expect this unit to be fully formed until round Thanksgiving. Training camp and the preseason are no longer functionally effective. (Just look at a lot of the offenses around the league.) It takes teams time, and the Bears come into this season with new players across the eleven. But there are certainly some concerning trends through two games, most notably their inability to run the ball. The run game was supposed to be a given for the 2024 Chicago Bears and it has been anything but. Is this a serious concern or are Tennessee and Houston two of the better defenses? We’ll find out in Indianapolis next weekend.

More Bears Thoughts.

• Eberflus and Waldron have to seriously consider sending Nate Davis to the bench. Rarely does a guard look so noticeably lost down-for-down. (See Tweet above.)
• It is hard to evaluate the league statistically at this juncture because the horror show that is the Carolina Panthers is skewing everything, but the Bears profile as a defense that is going to be right around a top five unit. Holding the Texans under twenty points at home is a sizable achievement.
• Bears have allowed three second-half points.
• Where are the wide receivers? That unit needs to be a team strength, and it has been a liability early. One would expect this to change quickly.
• In no scenario should Gerald Everett be more involved in the passing attack than Cole Kmet.

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This week, most outlets will focus on lessons to be learned from the teams reaching the final four. But what about the four teams that failed to advance this past weekend? What questions face those franchises? I am asking them directly.

Buffalo Bills. Who are you?

Buffalo’s performance against the Cincinnati Bengals should create something of an existential crisis.

They were a significant favorite. They were home, in front of some of the best fans in the sport. They even got weather. And they didn’t show up. But what is most surprising is just how unsurprising that was. The Bills were terrible a week ago against the Miami Dolphins, and just about any quarterback but Skylar Thompson would have beaten them.

Who are they? What is their offense? What is their defense? This team, as the season progressed, became nothing more than “Josh, go make a play” and that’s not a successful organizational template. Nobody needs to be fired. The roster doesn’t require significant alterations. But an identity on both sides of the ball needs to be established if this team hopes to find themselves playing beyond divisional round weekend.

New York Giants. Do you understand how far away your roster actually is?

Brian Daboll has become the toast of the town in New York City. He is also 3-6-1 in his last ten games.

Daniel Jones, according to WFAN and CBS’ Boomer Esiason, is looking at a potential contract totaling $130-140 million. He also pitched to a quarterback rating of 53.8 against the Eagles on Saturday.

The Giants overachieved in 2022 but that overachievement should be understood in proper context. Their roster is not remotely close to competing for championships. Saturday night in Philadelphia should have illustrated that for Joe Schoen. Did it?

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I have nothing more to say about the 2022 Chicago Bears. So here are some thoughts on the other teams.

• The Jets have to decide if they believe Mike White is a quarterback capable of leading a talented roster into the postseason. If they believe he is, and don’t believe Derek Carr or Jimmy G would be significant upgrades, the team should abandon the Zach Wilson Project and select a quarterback early in the draft. The Jets are talented, but they’re also young. White and a rookie could be the ideal QB room for them next summer.
• Denver fired Nathaniel Hackett but it’s not going to matter. Russell Wilson is shot, and his teammates hate him. There is no easy escape from this situation for the franchise but if they were smart, they’d simply eat the financial horror and move in a different direction. Start rebuilding the entire team now. Trade off viable assets.
• The most complicated contract negotiation this off-season: Daniel Jones. It is highly unlikely the Giants don’t resign him, but at what price? At what length? If the Giants don’t get a deal done with Jones, he’ll end up a starting QB next September somewhere in the league.
  • Also, I think Brian Daboll has been every bit the coach of the year. He won’t win the award but he’s getting absolutely everything possible out of an undermanned and decimated Giants roster.
• There is a lot of talk about potential landing spots for Sean Payton in 2023 but I don’t see him going anywhere without a quarterback already in place. Where is that? Maybe the Chargers, should things get wonky down the stretch. But there is little appeal in Denver, Indy, Carolina right now.
• Amazon should fire Kirk Herbstreit, Joe Thomas and Tony Gonzalez. Move Ryan Fitzpatrick into the booth next Al and let the “studio” show be Charissa and Richard Sherman. Fitzpatrick has intelligence/wit to be great in the moment, and Sherman’s analysis is wasted by time limitations. If they did this, they would have the best NFL broadcast around.
• With those receivers, Tua will always have production. But he’s simply not that talented a player. He’s got off-the-chart intangibles and a bottom of the league arm. He’s an MLB fourth starter who thrives against bad competition.
• Is that the most Lions loss ever? Just when they’ve built their fan base to a fever pitch, they get run over by the Carolina Panthers. 320 rushing yards? 320!?!?!?
• This is Bill Belichick’s worst season as a head coach. The Patriots are losing games mentally every week and it is still inexcusable that Bill handed over the offense to Matt Patricia.
• Deshaun Watson. Almost like professional football is difficult and you can’t take two seasons off.

Under Matt Nagy, the Chicago Bears have been notoriously horrendous after the bye week. They are 0-3, with two of those losses against backup quarterbacks, and two of the three being complete blowouts. Another woeful showing this week would take place in front of his potential replacement: Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman.

Nagy is done. At least, that’s what NFL Insider Benjamin Allbright has reported, stating the Bears have already begun doing background checks on other coaches, mentioning Vance Joseph and Brian Daboll specifically.

Sunday’s matchup with Baltimore brings an interesting option to Soldier Field in Roman. Baltimore’s offense isn’t lighting up the league, but they sit a respectable 12th in scoring and second in yardage, despite numerous injuries. A major reason for that is Lamar Jackson’s ability to do everything on the field and it is easy to see how Justin Fields could fit in an offense that maximizes a quarterback’s mobility as well as his ability to throw the ball down the field.

What makes Roman more interesting, though, is that he isn’t just reliant on Jackson being an MVP. He brings a unique and exotic running scheme that has had his team leading the league in rushing each of the last five years he has been an offensive coordinator. His teams have never finished lower than eighth in rushing and have been inside the top five in yards per attempt seven times in nine seasons.

Roman has been in the NFL a long time, coming in under Dom Capers in Carolina. If available, Vic Fangio figures to be his top candidate as defensive coordinator, as the two were together in Carolina, Houston, Baltimore and San Francisco.

But do you really want Fields taking so many hits? While Jackson has proven to be excellent at avoiding big shots, Fields has been just the opposite. He takes a big hit every week. It isn’t hard to see why this kind of offense isn’t preferred when the top priority is protecting a young quarterback.

But Roman isn’t the only strong candidate who figures to be available for the Bears in this cycle, here’s a quick look at some of the others, in no particular order:

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Brian Daboll, OC, Buffalo

The emergence of Josh Allen has made Daboll a hot name — Allbright said he is the top candidate for the Bears job — but it’s worth wondering who deserves credit for Buffalo’s success.

Before Allen became an MVP candidate, Daboll only once coached an offense that finished outside the bottom-10 in scoring. They have regularly been near the bottom of the league in turnovers and, of course, his teams haven’t won much as he was a part of three coaching staffs that were fired  — largely because they couldn’t score.

Many want to fire Nagy because of his work with Justin Fields, but Daboll’s offense had almost identical production with Josh Allen as a rookie.

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Vance Joseph, DC, Arizona

Much of the credit for Arizona’s success this year has gone to Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, but Joseph has quietly coordinated a top-five defense.

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(1) If Tremaine Edmunds can’t play Sunday (concussion) it will be a huge blow to the Bills defense. The Bears will be able to stretch the Buffalo secondary with their outside speed and that could leave huge pockets underneath for Trubisky to exploit with his legs. Edmunds would have been the logical candidate to use as a spy. He’s raw but has exemplary closing instincts/speed.

(2) Two things to expect from Buffalo OC Brian Daboll: wildcat looks and bubble screens. The former was shown against New England and seemed to catch Belichick off-guard early. The latter just makes sense, as the Bears have struggled to defend the quick screen and these are easy, one-read tosses to get Peterman “comfortable”.

(3) Worst thing the Bears can do against a quarterback like Peterman is sit back in soft coverages. Fangio should press the receivers outside and bring extra pressure whenever he can. The quicker they make Peterman process information, the more likely he is throw a pick-six or two.