All times are ET. Home team in CAPS.

Saturday 4:30 PM – HOUSTON v. Cleveland (-2.5)

His name is Flacco.

No, not the Manhattan owl.

But still the man soars.

Saturday 8:00 PM – KANSAS CITY (-4.5) v. Miami

It will be frigid,

projected at six below.

Too bleak for Flipper.

Sunday 1:00 PM – BUFFALO (-10) v. Pittsburgh

It’s the Bar Bill wings,

versus Primanti Brothers.

Dip this win in blue.

Sunday 4:30 PM – DALLAS (-7.5) v. Green Bay

America’s team.

A nation’s eyes upon them.

Will they hold up? Yes.

Sunday 8:15 PM – DETROIT (-3) v. Los Angeles

Jared was a Ram.

And Matthew was a Lion.

The latter moves on.

Monday 8:00 PM – TAMPA BAY v. Philadelphia (-3)

The home team is bad,

and the road team might be worse.

Someone has to win.

The Picks: Cleveland -2.5, Kansas City -4.5, Pittsburgh +10, Dallas -7.5, Los Angeles +3.5, Philly -3 (but I won’t be betting the last one).

This week, most outlets will focus on lessons to be learned from the teams reaching the final four. But what about the four teams that failed to advance this past weekend? What questions face those franchises? I am asking them directly.

Buffalo Bills. Who are you?

Buffalo’s performance against the Cincinnati Bengals should create something of an existential crisis.

They were a significant favorite. They were home, in front of some of the best fans in the sport. They even got weather. And they didn’t show up. But what is most surprising is just how unsurprising that was. The Bills were terrible a week ago against the Miami Dolphins, and just about any quarterback but Skylar Thompson would have beaten them.

Who are they? What is their offense? What is their defense? This team, as the season progressed, became nothing more than “Josh, go make a play” and that’s not a successful organizational template. Nobody needs to be fired. The roster doesn’t require significant alterations. But an identity on both sides of the ball needs to be established if this team hopes to find themselves playing beyond divisional round weekend.

New York Giants. Do you understand how far away your roster actually is?

Brian Daboll has become the toast of the town in New York City. He is also 3-6-1 in his last ten games.

Daniel Jones, according to WFAN and CBS’ Boomer Esiason, is looking at a potential contract totaling $130-140 million. He also pitched to a quarterback rating of 53.8 against the Eagles on Saturday.

The Giants overachieved in 2022 but that overachievement should be understood in proper context. Their roster is not remotely close to competing for championships. Saturday night in Philadelphia should have illustrated that for Joe Schoen. Did it?

Read More …

Kansas City 27, Jacksonville 20

Four mistakes.

Four mistakes cost the Jaguars a remarkable trip to the AFC Championship Game.

• They dropped an easy Chad Henne interception that would have likely been returned for a touchdown.
• Christian Kirk dropped a beautiful Trevor Lawrence deep shot that Cris Collinsworth inexplicably described as “overthrown.” (Collinsworth’s praising of Patrick Mahomes during this game became comical at times. Throws into the ground were being called brilliant.)
• Jamal Agnew let the kicker tackle him on a return when he was coasting into the open field. Every return man will tell you that the kicker can NEVER be the tackler.
• Agnew committed an unforced fumble, with the Jags driving for a score, down ten, just over five minutes to go.

A dissertation could be written about the Jaguar approach to Travis Kelce but even with the tight end’s dominant performance, Jacksonville should have won this ballgame. They didn’t. Because of four mistakes.

Eagles 38, Giants 7

It’s not surprising the Eagles won. It is a bit surprising that the Giants – who have been defined lately by their grit – were completely toothless. I came away from this snooze of a game with three thoughts.

• I don’t remember a more difficult evaluation than Daniel Jones and I don’t envy Joe Schoen in the coming weeks. Jones is clearly a starting quarterback in the NFL but is he an upper echelon starting QB? Do upper echelon starting quarterbacks pitch quarterback ratings of 53 in the postseason? Would Jones accept a contract in the Kirk Cousins realm: short-term and fully guaranteed? Three years, $75 million?
• The Vikings were the hollowest 13-game winner in the history of the NFL.
• Did the Eagles even need Robert Quinn? They have pass rush coming from every direction and that’s going to make them incredibly difficult to beat in their building next week. Folks are fond of saying the Niners have the best roster in the sport. The Eagles have a real argument.

Read More …

Ultimately, I went 7-5 on Wildcard Weekend, completely whiffing on Cowboys/Bucs to finish. (Each of Brett Maher’s FOUR missed extra points kept the game from hitting the over.) Now we enter the NFL’s best weekend, and the league has served us four terrific games. The goal is simply to stay above .500 the rest of the way.

This week’s three-bullet approach will be a point on each team and a score prediction. Again, my picks against the spread and the total are in the final score predictions. All numbers from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jaguars at Chiefs (-8.5), Over/Under 53

• There is nothing particularly interesting about the Chiefs. We saw this story in New England for decades. When you have the best coach and quarterback at the same time, you’ll find yourself in just about every conference title game. The Reid/Mahomes Chiefs have reached a point where they don’t play an important game until late January.
• The Jags did not look good in their regular season finale, and that carried over into Los Angeles. Fun comeback, sure, but felt more like a Chargers collapse than a Jaguars creation. (Still mind blowing that the scapegoat for that loss has been the LA offensive staff and not the head coach.)
• Chiefs 40, Jaguars 27

Giants at Eagles (-7.5), Over/Under 48

• Which quarterback is going to have more success on the ground. Jalen Hurts averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season. Daniel Jones averaged 5.9. Giants’ receivers won’t be as wide open against this secondary, and Jones won’t have hours in the pocket against this pass rush. If Jones isn’t moving the chains with his legs, the Giants will be chasing this game.
• There are 2006 Chicago Bears vibes with this 2022 Eagles team. Nobody believed that Bears team was capable of making it to the Super Bowl, even though they’d been the best team in the conference the entire season. The Eagles are quite simply the far better team here. Theyll find a way.
• Eagles 27, Giants 20

Bengals at Bills (-5), Over/Under 48.5

• Who the hell knows? Honestly, how is this spread five points? There is very little discernible difference between these two clubs, so the small advantage goes to Buffalo’s home field. (But they were home last weekend and looked about as sloppy as they have all year.)
• If you’re looking for a Bengals advantage, it is turnovers. Bengals were +6 on the season and used a shocking turnover to advance from the first round. Bills broke even with turnover differential during the season and tried everything they could to fumble and drop their playoff opener. My brain tells me this is a budding upset. But…
• Bills 33, Bengals 30

Read More …

This is less a gambling guide, and more an overview of the weekend’s action with predictions. But my gambling choices are evident in my final score prognostications. (All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.)

Seahawks at 49ers (-9.5), Over/Under: 42.5

• Just as we all predicted in August, the 2022 season could be decided by Brock Purdy’s performance in the postseason. Purdy was a player I liked in the draft, precisely because I watched him play football and not run around in his underwear in Indianapolis. He was a gamer at Iowa State, and those types of guys tend to find a role in the NFL.
• Seattle is playing with house money and teams in that position are always dangerous. This feels like a game that is 13-13 early in the second quarter, and gamblers start getting nervous, only to see it completely unravel for the Seahawks after a costly turnover or two.
• 49ers 34, Seahawks 16

Chargers (-2) at Jaguars, Over/Under: 47.5

• This was the predictable Saturday night contest, but if the league had some leadership, they would have put it in the premier Sunday night slot and marketed the hell out of these two young superstar QBs. Instead, the game of the weekend will be played in the least-watched time slot.
• This game feels incredibly even, and when that’s the case I look at three essential elements: quarterback, coach and building. Quarterback is a push right now, and the home field in Jacksonville isn’t much of one. But this is the most significant coaching mismatch of the week. Doug Pederson is a big game guy and Brandon Staley has absolutely no in-game feel. The latter will make a head-scratching decision (he always does) to decide this contest.
• Jaguars 27, Chargers 23

Dolphins at Bills (-13.5), Over/Under: 47

• Was it the Dolphins? Was it the league? Was it his family? It’s not important. Tua Tagovailoa is not playing in this ballgame and that is important for the long-term health of the young man’s brain. Tua will now have the next seven months to establish whether he wants to assume the risk of continuing his football career. One hopes that he’ll visit with serious neurologists during that time, doctors unaffiliated with the league.
• Without Tua, this is a serious mismatch.
• Bills 40, Dolphins 17

Read More …

The Bears are unlikely to win any of their remaining games. The Philadelphia Eagles might be the best team in the league. If they’re not, that distinction could be awarded the Buffalo Bills. Since starting the season 1-6. the Detroit Lions have been a top NFC side, going 5-1 and last Sunday, making their case as the best team in the NFC North (despite overall record). The Minnesota Vikings will win the division but with Dallas and San Francisco breathing down their necks for the two seed, they will need a win in the finale. In none of these final four contests will the Bears be less than a touchdown underdog. They may steal a victory in this closing month, but it’ll be a surprise if they do.

So, what is left for the Bears fan? The answer, sadly, is not much.

Justin Fields has proven to be one of the most electric quarterbacks in the league and the future at the position in Chicago. That was everything in 2022.

We know what the Bears have on their offensive and defensive lines, i.e., not much. (Teven Jenkins can play, it seems. Can Braxton Jones? I honestly don’t know.)

We’ve seen glimpses of production from the receivers (Claypool, Harry, EQ) but know improvement is needed. We’ve seen production in the secondary but know reinforcements are needed there as well. (You can never have enough quality corners.)

And we’ve seen quite the revelation in Jack Sanborn, whose production the last few weeks saved the Chicago Bears about $100 million in what would have been misallocated resources.

The beats will beat on; they don’t have the luxury of this approach. Kevin Fishbain can’t just write, “Ah, fuck it, this game doesn’t mean anything,” and still hope his direct deposit from the fine folks at The New York Times Company goes through. But if the Bears are smart, they are going to use these final four contests for purely evaluative purposes. That means any player with a tenuous role moving forward should be on the field for meaningful reps. These are not preseason games. These are four real contests against good teams with the world to play for. You want to find out what these young players have?

Draft position is important. But there is little drama remaining there. Even if the Bears steal another victory, they will be picking in the top five, and likely the top three. With this draft reportedly top heavy at quarterback, Ryan Poles should have an opportunity to trade back and add premium picks. (This roster needs them.) If a big trade doesn’t surface, Poles will have to decide whether to a top lineman prospect or electrifying wide receiver. I can tell you right now, having watched what’s happening around the league, I’ll be pushing for the latter.

Enjoy this final month, Bears fans. The team has their quarterback and 2023 Bears, while not yet contenders, should be the most entertaining team on the lakefront in modern history. The arrow for this franchise is pointed decidedly up, with an exciting off-season soon to come. We just have to suffer through a few losses down the stretch to get there.

Everyone loves the Buffalo Bills. Everyone. And quite frankly, that scares me. The NFL has become so unpredictable that it’s hard to imagine an overwhelming favorite making it all the way to the final Sunday and winning an expected title. But in order to get the Bills out of the Super Bowl, I need to find another team.

The Jets aren’t ready.

The Patriots don’t have the firepower.

The Dolphins worry me but it’s a big ask for a first-year coach.

The AFC South stinks.

The Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year. So why are the Ravens favored to win the division? (Vegas always knows something. Also, is “Vegas” even a thing anymore? Why aren’t the lines set in NJ or NYC?)

The whole AFC West is explosive, but it just feels like they’re going to beat the hell out of each other. That means the top seed is unlikely to come from the left coast and the top seed feels essential for those teams hoping to avoid the playoffs going through Buffalo.

The Buffalo Bills don’t have a major flaw on their roster, assuming Tre White eventually returns healthy, and in Josh Allen, they have the best player in the sport. If Von Miller can provide the prowess on the edge they’ll need in December and January, they will coast to an easy AFC East title and find themselves in Glendale playing for it all.

So, who wins the NFC?

I have no idea.

Am I taking the Packers again? No. Not with those receivers and not with the quarterback’s postseason record. (He’s one of the best regular season quarterbacks of all time but he’s a mediocrity in the tournament.)

I don’t trust Stafford’s health. I don’t trust Brady’s commitment. I don’t think Trey Lance is going to take a team to the title game in his first year as a starter. (And the Jimmy G re-signing strikes me as quite odd.) Who the hell else is there? Philly? Dallas? New Orleans? Nope. Nope. Nope.

I have zero conviction. And when you have no conviction, you just assume Tom Brady will do something ridiculous and overcome whatever he needs to overcome.

Super Bowl 57 Final Score

Buffalo Bills 30, Tampa Bay Bucs 23