4-0 on divisional weekend, after a 4-2 wildcard weekend. At 8-2, this is my best NFL postseason in a long time.

Sunday January 26 – 3:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Two elements in this game are leading me to take the Eagles.

(1) Vic Fangio vs. a rookie quarterback. Jayden Daniels has been incredible this season, but Fangio has seen him twice, and I would expect one of the game’s best defensive minds to show Daniels a series of looks he has yet to experience.

(2) Saquon Barkley. This is his postseason, and I see another 150+ on the ground.

I’m laying the points and not looking back.

Sunday January 26 – 6:30 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

There’s no reason to bet against the Chiefs.

None.

Zero.

So, I’m doing it.

Baltimore was a brutal matchup for Buffalo, with a running attack that could control the time of possession and wear out a smaller Bills defense. But the Ravens made too many mistakes and the Bills advanced.

Can the Chiefs run the ball the ball as effectively as Baltimore? No. Do they have the ability to go out and score 30 and win a shootout? No. They’re simply the grittiest team in modern NFL history, as comfortable down three as they are up 10. They have a single, definitive, remarkable trait: they know how to win big games in January and February.

But I’m going with the best player on the field, Josh Allen. How many times can he lose this particular game? How many times will he allow the final NFL Sunday to exclude him? I’m taking the points and trusting the Buffalo quarterback to get it done.

4-2 last weekend, losing only the coin flip game between Washington and Tampa and the game everybody lost, Los Angeles at Houston. (Where the hell did that Justin Herbert performance even come from?) Still, a very good start to the postseason and my quest to make some money off the NFL in 2025.

Saturday January 18th – 4:30 PM ET

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

I’m going to lay the points because I think the Chiefs have spent the entire season preparing for this game and what they did in the 2024 regular season is not particularly relevant. I expect Mahomes to look like Mahomes, Kelce to look like Kelce, and Chris Jones is going to make it impossible for CJ Stroud to mount any kind of comeback. It is January. The Chiefs will Chief.

Saturday January 18th – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)

Since the Hail Maryland, which I was lucky enough to witness in person, these are the score differentials of the Washington games: 5, 1, 8, 8, 23, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3. Since November, they rarely win big, and they rarely lose big.

I think Detroit will win this game, and ultimately win the NFC, but this strikes me as game wherein Washington could either (a) score early and keep it close, or (b) score late for the backdoor cover. Because I’ve got multiple working scenarios, I’ll take the points.

Read More …

Saturday 4:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans

Serious question: who would you want as your starting quarterback in September, CJ Stroud or Bryce Young? It’s very clearly a debate worth having now, as Stroud struggled in year two and Young looked every bit a franchise QB down the stretch of this season.

I don’t see any reason to believe this Texans team will win a playoff game. They don’t do anything particularly well. Lay the points, even on the road.

Saturday 8:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-10)

The instinct for gamblers will be obvious. Since most of these Steelers/Ravens games are like 16-14, take the Steelers and that pile of points.

But right now, the Ravens are one of the best teams heading into the tournament and the Steelers are, quite possibly, the worst team remaining.

Is Russell Wilson is going into Baltimore and outscoring the Lamar Jackson/Todd Monken juggernaut? How? Lay the points.

Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)

There used to be an old gambling maxim when it came to the NFL postseason: never bet the shaky quarterback on the road.

Bo Nix is going to be a good player, especially if he sticks with Sean Payton for the duration of his career. But he’s still a rookie, entering one of the league’s most hostile environments, facing a terrific defensive coaching staff.

Denver getting to the playoffs is a massive achievement in 2024. Their season ends in Buffalo. Lay the points.

All times ET. Home team in CAPS.

Saturday 4:30 PM – Texans at RAVENS (-9)

A battle wages

in the land of McNulty.

The game is the game.

Saturday 8:15 PM – Packers at NINERS (-9.5)

Cover your damn eyes.

Green Bay can beat ANYONE.

They will keep this close.

Sunday 3:00 PM – Bucs at LIONS (-6)

One city makes cars.

One city is all strip clubs.

Baker be dancin’.

Sunday 6:30 PM – Chiefs at BILLS (-3)

My head says Mahomes.

But my heart is in New York,

drenched in Elmo’s sauce.

Last week the picks were 2-4 but in fairness I picked the Steelers expecting them to cover in a blizzard. This week I’m on Baltimore -9, Packers +9.5, Bucs +6, Bills -3.