THE GAME POEM

“Turkey: A large bird whose flesh, when eaten on certain religious anniversaries has the peculiar property of attesting piety and gratitude.”

-Ambrose Bierce

THOUGHTS ON GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been great this season but they are actually ranked 8th in the league in points allowed per game. They are not in the top 20 of total yards, rushing yards or passing yards surrendered so what’s the reason for this anomaly? Turnovers. Packers are +8 on the season.
• A defense’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is a stat I’ve begun paying attention to in recent weeks and the numbers really are quite telling. The two best ratios in the league are 8-10 (Denver) and 12-15 (Carolina). The worst ratio is New Orleans’ 28-4. Packers are 13-11, right near the top of the sport. (Bears among the worst at 19-5)
• An interesting statistical tidbit from The Guardian (of all places):

By nearly every other quarterback’s standards Rodgers is having a brilliant season but he is not quite clicking with some of his receivers and his completion rate for the last three games stands at 52.1%, 57.4% and, on Sunday, 47.1%. Over that same same spell he has still thrown eight touchdowns and just one pick – he is Aaron Rodgers after all – but the fact that the chemistry between quarterback and receivers isn’t quite there (he has the lowest completion rate of his career in 2015) may cause trouble come the playoffs.

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The Bears now have a chance to find .500 by beating Brock Osweiler at home. A win would thrust them into playoff consideration and create Must See TV on Thanksgiving night at Lambeau. And so the season continues for one of the most entertaining Chicago Bears teams in recent memory.

THE GAME POEM

In Denver I ate a hot dog once

It was bigger than expected

The stuff they piled on was fine

The dog itself neglected

Don’t sell me on your franks, dear sir

Because they’re wrapped in bacon

The wiener is the thing, kind sir

The other shit is fakin’

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Around the League We Go!

• Through nine games, Jeremy Langford has only 100 yards less from scrimmage than Melvin Gordon.
• Someone in the Browns organization needs to walk down to the head coach’s office and tell him playing Josh McCown is no longer an option. I’ve never believed Johnny Manziel’s ability would translate to the pro game but losing down the stretch with McCown does the team zero good. (Manziel was quietly good in that Steelers game yesterday and Manziel isn’t quietly anything.)
• Tom Brady is full of magic. That’s the only way I can explain it.
• Giants should be 8-1. They’ve only played one poor game all season. I wouldn’t want to be walking into the Meadowlands in January once this group puts it together. (They are also +12 in turnovers this season. They are secretly good.)
• The NFL got what they wanted by changing the extra point rule. They made kickers way too relevant on Sundays. (And they’ve delayed at least 7-10 of my piss breaks.)

Missed Extra Points – Since 2010 – NFL 2010 – 2014 37 2015 so far 36

— Paul Pabst (@PaulPabst) November 16, 2015

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Did anyone see this coming? Did anyone see the Bears going into an opposing stadium and thoroughly dominating the home team? Seriously. Any home team. The Bears were underdogs by more than a touchdown and played like Super Bowl contenders. It was impressive. Rapid fire…

– Jeremy Langford is a star. Speed, toughness, the works. If you wondered if Matt Forte was returning in 2016, you can stop wondering. Langford and Carey are a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

– Jay Cutler just continued to do what he’s done all season, except Sunday he was able to pile up some stats to support his excellent play. What’s been most remarkable about Cutler’s season is he is doing all this with a makeshift offensive line and without his receiving corps ever being healthy at the same time.

– Shea McClellin looked as good at middle linebacker as he’s looked all year – attacking the line of scrimmage and tackling in the hole. Easy to see what Fox and Fangio like so much about him at the position.

– McClellin’s strip of Tre Mason remind you of anyone? Sure as hell did for me.

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Can’t complain about my picks a week ago. Saints flew by their number. Packers never approached theirs. And the Bears / Vikings game was a coin flip. 2-1. Four games over .500 on the season. This week…

ST. LOUIS +3 AT MINNESOTA

One team I think is very good. The other team is the Minnesota Vikings. And if Teddy Bridgewater struggled against the Bears defense, what is he going to do against one of the best defenses in the sport?

GREEN BAY -3 AT CAROLINA

No comment. Well one comment. Where are all the people who argued the Packers wouldn’t miss Jordy Nelson? They seem awfully quiet to me. The Packers are consistently credited for having magnificent drafts and an unending basket of talent. But it’s never been true. They have an all world quarterback. But even he misses his best and most reliable weapon.

CHICAGO & SAN DIEGO OVER 49 PTS

Season Record: 13-9-2

Three picks last week. Rams beat the Browns easily. Patriots barely scraped by the 28.5 number. Colts decided to spot the Saints about 70 points. Mediocre week but I knew it was coming. This week, I rebound.

GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 24 AT DENVER

Packers haven’t been convincing offensively in a month and the Broncos are one of the better defenses in the game. What scares me about this bet? I could very easily see Peyton Manning throwing points the other way. (I can’t believe that’s where we are with Manning.) I’m betting on Gary Kubiak committing to the run game, keeping Rodgers on the bench and still losing 20-17.

CHICAGO BEARS +1 OVER MINNESOTA

Hot hand.

The Bears have been a covering machine, even if I had an early line and pushed with them two weeks ago. Having seen enough of the Vikings I’m simply not that impressed. Love Cutler’s record against Minnesota, especially at home.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS OVER 27 VS. NYG

Giants last three opponents were quarterbacked by Colin Kaepernick, Sam Bradford and Matt Cassel and they surrendered 27-27-20 points. Drew Brees is hot right now and I don’t think the Giants defense can withstand this onslaught.

Season Record: 11-8-2

• Before we make Adam Gase the head coach of the Dolphins or anyone else, can we at least have him fix the red zone offense? The spread-style scheme he runs is great at getting the Bears close, but they still need to be able to power it in the end zone once they’re there. It’s more difficult to create mismatches when the defense doesn’t have to cover as much space.

• It’s not all on Gase. The Bears have been getting their butts kicked at the point of attack when the other team is able to play their base or goal line defenses. You also saw Cutler miss a throw to Royal and Marty Bennett drop a perfect throw, both would’ve been touchdowns. Players have to make plays.

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2-1 last week, only losing because the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants had to do it their way Sunday and make the end of the game exciting. 5-1 over my last six and I’m a believer in gambling momentum.

Chicago Bears +3 at Detroit Lions

Hot hand. Two straight covers. And I think the Bears are simply better than the Lions right now. (More on this tomorrow.)

Atlanta Falcons & New Orleans Saints Over 51 Pts

First off, I love rooting for overs. It means lots of scoring. Secondly, I’m not sure either of these teams is any good on the defensive side of the ball. I see a 34-24 type game, smoothly sailing past the number.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

I don’t think the Seahawks are any good. They have two wins on the year. One against James Clausen and they needed all four quarters to win that. One against a Detroit team that was half a yard from beating them in Seattle. It sometimes takes folks time to move beyond reputation and analyze what’s happening on the field. On the field, Seattle stinks. Their offensive line is putrid. Their secondary collapses in the fourth quarter. Their quarterback is limited in the pocket. (If you don’t follow Pete Prisco’s work on this, you should.)

Ron Rivera is salivating when he watches tape of this OL group. Add Luke Kuechly to the mix and I’m comfortable taking the points.

Season Record: 8-6-1 

Another 1-2 week has left me reeling through three weeks of the season. Gave the Ravens too much credit (and didn’t deduct enough points for Marc Trestman’s involvement in their organization). Didn’t give the Bears defensive coaching staff enough credit. Nothing is over. Nothing. I shall rebound.

DOLPHINS UNDER 20 POINTS V. JETS IN LONDON

If you get an opportunity to watch the replay of Bills v. Dolphins from Sunday, spend the hour and do so. It felt like, from the opening whistle, we were watching the last game of the Joe Philbin era in Miami. The offense was useless. The defense made Tyrod Taylor look like Roger Staubach. The coaching staff didn’t make a single discernible adjustment over the course of 60 minutes. And they’ve completely lost the plot with their use of Suh.

Are the Jets great? No. But their defense is capable of wrecking this game for the Dolphins and I can’t see Tannehill getting this group to three touchdowns.

BEARS +3 OVER RAIDERS

Full report on this selection will be available in tomorrow’s game preview.

LIONS +10 AT SEAHAWKS

Let’s look at the Seahawks first three games. They were humiliated defensively in week one by Nick Foles and a Rams offense that have gone AWOL since. They were somewhat lifeless at Lambeau Field, losing by double digits in a game that never felt that close. Sunday, at home against Jimmy Clausen, they were entirely unimpressive. So how are they double-digit favorites against ANYBODY? Not only do I think this game is close, I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit has a chance to win late.

Record: 3-5-1 (-$260)

I found Sunday’s loss to Washington one of the more entertaining losses in Bears history. The Reverend? Did not.