Deidre and Colleen are seated in their golf start, waiting for the group ahead of them to tee off at Talking Stick. Deidre smokes cigar. Colleen sips a gin and tonic. It is 6:30 AM.

Deidre: It’s a dry heat.

Colleen: Then why am I drenched at six o’clock in the morning.

Deidre: I hate that word.

Colleen: What word?

Deidre: Drenched.

Colleen: What word would you prefer I use?

Deidre: I don’t care.

Colleen: Sweaty? Saturated? Moistened?

Deidre: Towels are moistened, not human.

Colleen: I’ve been moistened.

Beat.

Deidre: How do you know?

Colleen: How do I know what?

Deidre: When it’s time to go, when it’s time to stop doing something.

Colleen: What are you talking about?

Deidre: We do things, human being. We do things because we’re supposed to, because that’s what you do. But how do you know when to stop doing a thing?

Colleen: You’re talking about Eberflus.

Deidre: I’m talking about Eberflus.

Colleen: It’s time.

Deidre: Is it?

Colleen: Time.

Deidre: Okay.

Beat.

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Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Welcome to the Matt Eberflus Game

So, as many of you might have realized, I took a step back from the “insider” stuff when returning to school. That kind of work requires diligence, dedication and most importantly, nerve. You have to be willing to go with information when you trust it, and then sweat it out until it becomes reality (while the rest of Bears media peppers you with texts). The “sweat it out” part was not for me.

But on the drive from DC to Newark Monday, and throughout the day Tuesday, I texted everyone, trying to gauge what the league-wide consensus was on Matt Eberflus. Here is what I gathered in that informal survey.

– Eberflus is an exceptionally well-liked man in the league.

– Said one personnel guy: “Never make decisions after a Hail Mary loss.” (And he’s been through a bad one.)

– Said one scout: “The Ben Johnson/Breer leak was interesting timing. Johnson smells blood in the water.” I had to sit with this text a bit. Is Ben Johnson really thinking about his NEXT job in October, while being the OC of a team that looks like the overwhelming favorite to make the Super Bowl from the NFC?

– Said one former personnel guy, now a TV guy: “These next few games are very important.”

And this last comment is where I’ve landed on Eberflus. I don’t think it particularly matters if he’s the coach in 2025 or not. Do I think they can win with him? Yes. I think he’s becoming an excellent in-game adjuster, which was his primary flaw a year ago. But there’s not enough positive with Flus that I believe he’d be a major loss on the sideline should they replace him, and I don’t think Caleb would be all that flustered by a system change on offense, especially if they move to an offensive head coach.

But if Flus wants to stave off calls for his job, I think he must win these next two games. I’m not saying he’ll be fired either way, but the calls for his job will persist all season long if he’s not 6-3.

Three Thoughts on the Cardinals

• What is Arizona? Who knows? They are technically in first place (three-way tie) with a point differential of -27. They seem like an entirely different team every week I watch them.
• The Bears have a distinct advantage seeing Kyle Murray the week after Jayden Daniels, as Murray’s legs are the most threatening thing about the Cardinal offense. If the Bears contain Murray, they’ll contain Arizona.
• By every metric – especially pressures, sacks and opposing passer rating – this is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. (Washington was not, by the way, and I tried to tell people that in las week’s preview.)

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 Lou Malnati’s, Phoenix

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And 2021 is almost at its conclusion. Why harbor negative feelings?

Bears Need to Keep Game Close

This is the part of the game preview where I try to find an overarching theme for the contest. But Sunday is one tough tamale.

The Bears are too banged up on defense to find relevance there. (What even is this defense without Mack, Roquan and Hicks?)

Without Justin Fields playing – and he shouldn’t play until he’s 100% healthy – there’s little relevant happening on the offensive side of the ball. You want to get excited about Larry Borom and Darnell Mooney? That’s fine. But those two guys are going to be part of the program next season. Their next “important” game is in September.

So, what is worth watching? The score. The Bears have to keep this game close and competitive because if they don’t Soldier Field is going to a nightmare. The fans have had enough of the coach and they want blood. If the score gets out of hand in the second half, the only audible things on the telecast are going to be “Fire Nagy” chants. And those chants will be leading everyone’s game stories.

The Bears need to stay in this game and have a plausible chance to win in the fourth quarter. Will they?

Top 10 Sondheim Songs (From the Stage)

There will be plenty of time for me to write thoroughly about what Stephen Sondheim’s life and career means to me. But the world is currently flooded with those types of remembrances. As time moves along, and there’s distance from his passing, I will spend some more time with this difficult topic. For now, I’m sharing ten songs that display his genius in this form I love – musical theatre. They are ranked because I like ranking things. But the rankings are meaningless.

____________________

(10) Someone in a Tree, Pacific Overtures

____________________

(09) Comedy Tonight, A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

____________________

(08) Losing My Mind, Follies

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While “Fire Nagy” chants fill even the smallest stadiums in Illinois, the Chicago Bears are doing the right thing by giving their coach at least a chance to fight for his job. Had the Bears lost to the Detroit Lions, that story would be different.

Perhaps it can be argued that a last-second win over the worst team in the league shouldn’t matter, but keep in mind that the Ravens, Browns and Vikings were also taken to the wire by Detroit, with several of them deserving to lose. There’s no such thing as a bad win, especially when draft status is not impacted.

Thanksgiving’s victory isn’t likely going to mean anything, but giving Nagy a chance to dig out of this hole will surely look good to candidates interested being his replacement. (Firing Nagy mid-season, a year after making the playoffs, might turn off some candidates.) Since there would be no actual benefit to firing Nagy right now, why risk eliminating any potential replacements? Especially considering the most interesting rumor involves one of Nagy’s good friends, Ryan Day. While the Bears being “in the hunt” is a punch line today, it might not be a week from now.

Sunday, the Bears face a team from the southwest, at noon, on what is expected to be a cold and rainy day. Nobody likes the term “Bear weather,” but there have been plenty of warm-weather teams who have struggled to deal with it over the years. The Cardinals are very good, but they’re young, wounded and have their own coaching distraction to worry about. Likely working for a contract extension, Kliff Kingsbury didn’t even shoot down the rumors about Oklahoma.

The Cardinals have a top-10 offense and defense, but if ever there was a chance for a massive upset, this is it.

It’s likely going to take nine wins to make the playoffs, and if the Bears win Sunday that won’t be as far-fetched as many believe, especially if the team can get back to running the ball and playing defense like they did earlier in the year. (They’ll also need their young quarterback to replicate his Pittsburgh performance a few times down the stretch.)

The most likely scenario is a loss for the Bears — probably even an ugly one. That coupled with a sure loss to Green Bay next week will seal Nagy’s fate. The Bears will be out of the playoff hunt and can move on from Nagy with time to interview coaches before the end of the season, thanks to a recent rule change.

Fans can hate Nagy all they want, but those looking at the job from a distance will look positively on two playoff appearances in two years. They may see things they think they could do better, but nobody will paint the picture fans have of Nagy matching the incompetence of John Fox and Marc Trestman. They’ll see a coach who made the playoffs with horrible quarterback play and they’ll know how difficult that is to accomplish. They also know what all coaches know: If you don’t win enough, you won’t have a job for long.

Nagy is still a winning coach and has dug out of holes before. The Bears have nothing to lose by giving him the opportunity to do so again.

In many ways it’s a great time to be a Bears fan, but a lot of us aren’t feeling entirely joyful. Through three games I find myself filled with a mix of optimism and frustration. I’m also annoyed by my own frustration because last year I would’ve killed for the Bears to be where they are now.

So what’s my problem?

Chicago is 2-1 and in first place in the NFC North. That’s great! They have an elite, lights out, game-changing, championship-winning caliber defense. That’s great, too!

They also have an offense that is struggling, and no one is struggling more than the future of the franchise, Mitch Trubisky. Or as Adam Hoge said on the latest Hoge & Jahns podcast while recapping Sunday’s game, “the defense looked like it could win a Super Bowl, the offense looked like it didn’t belong in the NFL.”

That’s… not so great.

Shortly after the Bears 16-14 win I got on Twitter and posted five initial thoughts about the game and where the team is at this point in the season:

• Without this defense they are 0-3.
• Trubisky had a bad game.
• So did Matt Nagy.
• A win is still a win.
• I’m gonna ignore points 1-3 for now and celebrate the fact that the Bears are 2-1 and leading the NFC North for the first time in years!

Three days later, and I feel the same way. The Bears are in a good position, regardless of how the offense has struggled, and I still believe that Trubisky will get better as the season progresses. And yet, the frustration lingers for two main reasons:

• I expected Trubisky to be better at this stage
• I had no idea the defense would be *this* good

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It’s dangerous to make any grand proclamations three weeks into a season. But the Bears win over the Cardinals was a great indicator that, at the very least, they don’t suck.

Whether they’re actually good or not is still to be decided. While it was widely regarded as a game the Bears should win, winning in the NFL is difficult, especially for a young team flying nearly across the country on a short week. Travel difficulties are very real in the NFL. We see even the best teams struggle with them. This was a schedule test, one the Bears passed.

The offense is horrendous.

There’s no arguing that.

But the defense is incredible.

Khalil Mack isn’t just great, he’s a generational talent. The other big addition, Roquan Smith, flies around and finishes with a boom. They’re fast, they’re physical and, for the first time since Lovie left town, they attack the ball.

Obviously, for the Bears to graduate from a team that merely doesn’t suck to one that is actually good, the offense needs to be better. They do deserve credit for three scoring drives in the second half. And, really, they should’ve had two in the first half, but Cody Parkey missed what should’ve been an easy field goal.

Still, good teams score touchdowns and that’s the next goal for the Bears.

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The Bears have played three games. So have the Packers, Vikings and Lions. After those three games, the Bears have the best record in the NFC North.

• Style points don’t matter. The first two months of the season are about accruing wins and positioning yourself for a potential postseason run. The Bears won a football game on a road. This fan base isn’t allowed to use the word “but”. A win is a win is a win.
• Several times during this game I turned to my buddy Maciej and said, “Why do we have Khalil Mack?” It’s all I can think about during these games. He is a force. The Cardinals were using 2-3 players on him per play and he still ended up with two sacks and a crucial forced fumble. Without Mack, the Bears are 0-3 right now.
• Sherrick McManis. Bryce Callahan. Bilal Nichols. The Bears aren’t just good on defense. They’re deep.
• Matt Nagy was lost Sunday. There’s no other way to say it. As a play caller, he had zero feel for the flow of the game and Wilks/Holcomb had the better of him all day long. The Bears have been incoherent on offense through three weeks. There is no discernible system/strategy. The play calls feel random.
• Trubisky has to be better. It’s hard to evaluate his play without access to the game tape but he seems indecisive and uncomfortable. That’s a lethal combination.
• Why do all the team’s deep shots have zero chance? Are these being called? Does Trubisky have the option not to throw them? Very difficult to analyze without that information.
• And stop telling me the Bears are running the Chiefs offense. I watched Chiefs/49ers yesterday. The Chiefs have wide open receivers all over the field. Patrick Mahomes rarely throws a ball into congestion. The Bears never seem to have anyone open. And they never complete a pass to a receiver moving up the field. The receiver’s back is always to the defense, limiting any YAC possibility.
• Enough with the bubble screens! Seriously! Enough! This isn’t the Pac-12. Those plays might work against Kevin Sumlin’s Arizona but they’re not working against a professional defense.

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Weird part of this Denny Green video is he wasn’t wrong. The Cardinals absolutely dominated the Bears in this game, offensively and defensively. It took some of the flukiest developments ever for this result to happen. How fluky? The game actually has its own Wikipedia page.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

To paraphrase the great Lou Brown from Major League, the Bears won Monday night. If they win this Sunday that’s called a winning streak. And they’re the heaviest favorite they have been on the road since probably the mid-2000s. I just don’t see any way this group loses this game.

Game Haiku

Hitting Sam Bradford

Will lead to the dink and dunk

And Glendale glory!

Why the Bears Will Win?

• Run Game. Arizona is allowing over 136 yards a game on the ground and Matt Nagy acknowledged this week the Bears need to give the ball to their workhorse back more. (Yes, I’m going to make this a primary bullet point every single week because I truly believe this coaching staff will wake up and realize Jordan Howard is their best offensive player AT SOME POINT. Oh, and once the power game starts working you’ll see a different, more comfortable Mitch Trubisky.)
• Arizona is averaging 114 yards passing through two games. Yes, that’s an actual statistic. 114. That’s 26 yards less than Buffalo and the Bills started Nate Peterman – the worst statistical QB in the history of the league – for one of their two games. The Arizona QB rating through two games? 55.6. Touchdowns? Zero. This is one awful passing attack.
• Third-Down Conversions. The Bears are tenth in the league, converting more than 40% of their third-down opportunities. (They’ve already significantly improved on this stat from a year ago.) Arizona is dead last in that stat, somehow managing to only convert 20%. Arizona is also mind-bogglingly allowing opponents to convert their third downs half the time, exactly 50%. The Bears should have little problem staying on the field on offense / getting off the field on defense.
• Road Game? Is there any doubt there will be more Bears fans than Cardinals fans in University of Phoenix Stadium? Hell, they just opened a Lou Malnati’s in Scottsdale! This could become a demoralizing affair for the home side.

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